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Your predictions: Top prospect in the system, mid-June 2014
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Post by justen on Nov 8, 2013 10:04:29 GMT -5
I really hope you guys are right on Swithart. I think I'm just down on catchers the way I am "defensive short stop" prospects. They are both extremely over-rated in my opinion. I understand its because the positions are thin so having a really good one puts your team at a great advantage. The issue is, it's thin so we tend to over-rate guys on the hope they reach their potential. The fact it's so thin should tell us these prospects have a lower chance to actually get there, either due to skill set (SS) or position (catcher). Iglesias is a prime example of this. It's not difficult to find a great defensive SS, but it's hard to get one who can also hit. We say the threshold is low and it is, but it's low for a reason. Even if Jose hits .250 (stretch), it's going to be with no walks and no extra base power. My guess is Detroit talks themselves into that being ok, until other holes start to appear offensively. Pretty soon you have Brendan Ryan. Considering his age and considerable defensive/offensive progression there's no reason to believe that with his great athleticism he couldn't refine all his tools to be plus, other than speed maybe. It could be argued that Swihart has the highest ceiling among positional prospects other than Cecchini because he's a switch hitter a premium position, hitting at an age-advanced scale, and the athleticism is what excites people about his potential to develop into a plus-defensive catcher. Whether catcher is a premium position or not, it will be hard for Swihart's prospect status to plummet unless he completely stops hitting, because he still has the versatility to move to another position (such as the outfield corners) and still support his value with the bat. Not sure where your Iglesias comparison comes from, maybe if we were hyping Marrero for #1 that would be a valid case but that seems to be an clear non-option. Safe to say that I love Swihart and he is my favorite to vault to #1, but I really like Owens. The influx in prospects this system has had is literally incredible given all the arms that come with it as well.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 8, 2013 10:49:33 GMT -5
Yes a need for control is needed to succeed at a higher level but if he returns to AA for the first half of 2014 and continues to post anything in the neighborhood to "no hit" stuff I think he will move to the one spot despite an inflated walk rate. I mean he was pitching at a tune of a 1.78 ERA with a 13.65 K/9 rate at AA with 30.3 innings of work. Yes his BB/9 of over 4 does not lead to sustainable success long term but his avoidance of hits still led him to a whip of 1.09. Ultimately its still about minimizing base runners however you do it. That is what I mean by maintaining his level of performance. Even with a slight regression which is likely as the league makes adjustments to him he can hold the 1 spot on upside at just 21. Where as if Cechinni just replicates his numbers we will be pleased but have questions about his power and whether he is a 3rd basemen or a RF. He also had a significant reduction in his SB total form the prior year so he isn't adding as much value on the bases. JBJr's higher 2 ranking had much to do with his defensive prowess which Cechinni does not have an added benefit of in addition to JBJr's high OBP. Swihart is much more likely to move ahead of Cechinni because of the defensive premium and evolving bat. I agree with you about Cecchini. I've never been as high on him as most here, but that's mostly because I don't know where he'll play. The SB totals dropping were really predictable, you can win that question in the Pre-Season Guessing Game every year. Low-A is easy to run in; pick someone with ok speed and smarts and you'll get it every year. Owens just doesn't do it for me, yet. High strike outs and lots of walks equals a 5 inning pitcher which isn't a top prospect to me, unless he literally only strikes people out or walks them. If he can't get his walks down to the 3.2/9 or better range then I wouldn't be surprised to see Barnes and Ranaudo move ahead of him. Control is just too important in the upper minors and majors for me to say Owens is going to be fantastic.
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Post by semperfisox on Nov 8, 2013 11:07:19 GMT -5
Blake Swihart IMO.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Nov 8, 2013 11:21:02 GMT -5
1. Cecchini 2. Owens 3. Swihart 4. Ranaudo 5. Betts
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Post by p23w on Nov 8, 2013 22:30:43 GMT -5
Owens
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Post by redsox1534 on Nov 9, 2013 7:59:54 GMT -5
Id Say Owens, Cecchini, Barnes, Swihart, Betts, Ball, Merrero, Brian Johnson, Stank, Brentz. I Think Webster will graduate, Workman, Ranuadao will be dealt ( I hope, in a big deal for a stud hitter.) How can every one forget about Brentz? Could graduate also. And Brian Johnson is slept on so much in this system and around baseball period. Mostly because there is so much talent at SP in this farm. Big risers in top 20, Callahan, Ramos, Haley, Littrel, Mercedes, Myles Smith, Diaz, McGrath I don't think anyone is forgetting about Brentz. There's just no way that he is the #1 Sox prospect by June 2014. I think he'll be dealt if possible. I didnt say he would be #1 just top ten an closer to 10.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2013 10:10:14 GMT -5
For me, this is easy. Cecchini starts to show his power and is a clear #1.
Owens and Swihart are the other two, of course, that come to mind. Webster's a candidate, as you could see him finally improving his command (and he finished very strongly).
The safest possible prediction: Steven Wright will remain the most underrated.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 9, 2013 12:02:25 GMT -5
For me, this is easy. Cecchini starts to show his power and is a clear #1.
Owens and Swihart are the other two, of course, that come to mind. Webster's a candidate, as you could see him finally improving his command (and he finished very strongly). The safest possible prediction: Steven Wright will remain the most underrated. This is what I think. I stood next to Cecchini in Portland last season and he is definitely filling out. He is a big boy. To me he had more of a controlled swing...not really going for it when he had his pitch. I suspect tho this is the year that Cecchini makes the jump-up in power production. I just am not sold on Owens. Again the times I saw him he was sitting 86-89. Maybe there is more there or maybe he adds a bit but I don't see a guy with limited velo. and less than magical control doing all that well at higher levels at least as a starter. I don't know enough about Swihart. In pics he looks about 14. Maybe he will fill out too. Webster has the stuff and needs only to better harness it. The jury is still out but at least it is impanelled. I don't think any of our other high minor pitchers have his native ability. Wright is definitely a curiosity but knuckleballers seem to be 'hit or miss'......
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 9, 2013 12:28:43 GMT -5
For me, this is easy. Cecchini starts to show his power and is a clear #1. Owens and Swihart are the other two, of course, that come to mind. Webster's a candidate, as you could see him finally improving his command (and he finished very strongly). The safest possible prediction: Steven Wright will remain the most underrated. I don't know about Wright, to me he's worth stashing, but this org may be worst place for him with all the young arms coming up. Best case scenario for Wright is he's the typical inconsistent knuckleballer and he's not going to have a true opportunity here until Webster, Workman, Ruby, Barnes, Ranaudo then Owens and Ball. Not to mention Johnson and stank, etc.... I just don't see much use for Wright.
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Post by bmitchsox on Nov 9, 2013 16:09:27 GMT -5
I expand on the topic and list my June 14 Top 5. 1. Owens - He doesn't need to improve vs last year to achieve this just maintain his level of performance at Portland. Any increased control makes this a no brainer. 2. Swihart - He made dramatic improvement from year 1 to year 2 and I believe the bat takes another step forward this season. Premium defensive position. 3. Cecchini - Has the potential to be 2 but doesn't play a premium defensive position like Swihart. For me will need to show a step up in HR power from 7 to hold 2. 4. Betts - Showing both power and speed with above average def aided by increased physical maturity IMO. With only 185 HI A ABs should start in Salem and excel. 5. Barnes - Has the highest upside of the AAA group including Ranaudo and Webster with his dominating FB. Could also just as easily be traded this offseason. If he struggles with his development of the secondaries he could find his way into the pen come August if Boston finds itself in need of an additional bullpen arm. Not the likeliest scenario though with recent and current prospects Workman, Britton and De La Rosa all more likely to be used first as pen arms before converting Barnes. * My darkhorse candidate for the 5 spot is Teddy Stankiewicz. Will only turn 20 this month and I suspect a year of strength training and physical development will spur a jump in his prospect status. Speculation but an unknown health issue resulted in a reduced signing bonus and perhaps the use of shorter stints for his outings in Lowell although not unusual for first year players late in the season. If so an offseason to regain full health could play a role. Great control should also give him a high floor as it will help avoid big innings and minimize damage by limiting men on base. I feel his level of development at this point should offer an opportunity to at times dominate in Low A Greenville. * Other personally projected rankings risers come June 14: Luis Diaz Jami Callahan Henry Ramos Simon Mercedes Myles Smith Nick Longhi Agree, Owens is most likely, and I think Swihart, Cecchini and Ranaudo could rise steadily as well. Im mostly excited about our younger guys with high cielings, like Myles Smith, Rafael Devers, Sergio Gomez, Simon Mercedez and Daniel McGrath.
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Post by bgeer091 on Nov 9, 2013 19:51:31 GMT -5
I agree with pretty much everyone here. It's Swihart. I think Owens falls in at 2 and Cecchini stays at 3. It's not Cecch's faul that he stays at 3. I just believe Owens and Swihart are fantastic next season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 10, 2013 0:02:00 GMT -5
For me, this is easy. Cecchini starts to show his power and is a clear #1. Owens and Swihart are the other two, of course, that come to mind. Webster's a candidate, as you could see him finally improving his command (and he finished very strongly). The safest possible prediction: Steven Wright will remain the most underrated. I don't know about Wright, to me he's worth stashing, but this org may be worst place for him with all the young arms coming up. Best case scenario for Wright is he's the typical inconsistent knuckleballer and he's not going to have a true opportunity here until Webster, Workman, Ruby, Barnes, Ranaudo then Owens and Ball. Not to mention Johnson and stank, etc.... I just don't see much use for Wright. Thanks for being so quick to confirm my prediction. Actually, the best case scenario for Wright is that he outpitches Webster, Ranaudo, and Barnes (and De La Rosa, Britton, and Hinojosa if they're starting) next year, and is impressive enough that they feel they should leave Workman in the MLB bullpen, and hence becomes the team's 5th starter. The notion that there should be some inherent bias against him simply because he throws the knuckleball is something no actual competent baseball executive would entertain. (In fact, if anything, minor league knuckleball success arguably translates better to MLB success than conventional pitching success, since hitting the knuckler is not a skill selected for among hitters, if it even exists.) Since outpitching every other prospect in the system is precisely what Wright did in the second half last year, I don't think this is all that unlikely. We're about two more months away from deciding, that's how good a pitcher he more or less actually is, right now. And, yes, the odds of him repeating that performance are less than if he were a conventional pitcher (a conventional pitcher who had his season, with those second half numbers, would probably be ranked #12 here), but since he did it, there's certainly a chance he can do it again, and if he does do it again ... like I said. People ignore him at their own peril. What he was throwing for two months last year was pretty much what R.A. Dickey threw for three years with the Mets.
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Post by semperfisox on Nov 10, 2013 0:13:13 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts has been the player I've followed night in and night out for at least the past 2 seasons. I think Swihart will be my new player obsession.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 1:21:16 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm mistaken, Eric, but it looks like you're elevating Wright based on a half-year of ERA numbers, which seems pretty suspect. While knuckleball pitchers are more likely than most pitchers to be able to sustainably outperform their peripherals, Wright's excellent second half ERA was driven mainly by suppressing home runs and sequencing, as well as a bevy of unearned runs that he avoids the blame for. Let's look by month:
July: 32.2 IP, 20:13 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, .283 BABIP, 2.20 ERA (8 ER, 10 R), 3.17 FIP August: 24 IP, 16:8 K/BB, 0.38 HR/9, .299 BABIP, 2.25 ERA (6 ER, 9 R), 3.53 FIP September: 5 IP, 2:2 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, .200 BABIP, 0.00 ERA (0 ER, 0 R), 3.60 FIP
R.A. Dickey's success with the Mets occurred because (a) he sustained a very low BABIP (.277 in 616.2 IP between 2010-12) and (b) he had very good strikeout (6.83 K/9) and walk (2.19 BB/9) numbers over that period, two skills that Wright didn't really exhibit even during this hot streak. Wright's sparkling ERA over that stretch comes despite very mediocre strikeout and walk rates. His solid FIP is driven almost entirely by the prevention of home runs, which may be a real skill or might just be a small sample size artifact. His ERA also looks much less sparkling if you incorporate the unearned runs he gave up. BABIP suppression, which is a skill some knuckleball pitchers possess, is not something Wright has shown yet in the Boston system (.294 BABIP in Pawtucket in 2013, .281 in 2012), although he did put up a .250 BABIP in 115.2 innings in the Indians system in 2012.
Even (especially?) if Wright wasn't a knuckleballer, most observers would look at the above numbers and conclude that while he has potential (especially if the HR suppression is a real skill), he doesn't exactly look like a superstar in disguise. Only time will tell, and I'm intrigued enough to happily give him a spot in the Pawtucket rotation, even if it means bumping someone like De La Rosa or Hinojosa to piggyback/bullpen duty at the start of the season. But his odds of repeating that stretch certainly seem low to me, and I'm genuinely puzzled why you think he's so great. To me, he looks like the second coming of Chris Hernandez-- a pitcher whose profile (crafty lefty:knuckleballer) provides some hope that his outperformance of his peripherals is sustainable (Hernandez, 2012: 4.12 FIP, 3.26 ERA), but which is most likely just unsustainable SSS luck.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 10, 2013 7:31:00 GMT -5
[...] The notion that there should be some inherent bias against him simply because he throws the knuckleball is something no actual competent baseball executive would entertain. [..] Since outpitching every other prospect in the system is precisely what Wright did in the second half last year, I don't think this is all that unlikely. We're about two more months away from deciding, that's how good a pitcher he more or less actually is, right now. And, yes, the odds of him repeating that performance are less than if he were a conventional pitcher [...] Hilarious! The first is the classic bad rhetorical trick of saying that anyone who disagrees with you is incompetent. In the second, you are saying "there should be some inherent bias against him simply because he throws the knuckleball"!
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 10, 2013 7:55:31 GMT -5
Cecchini had over .200 IsoP at Salem last year, which is huge. People are a little too HR focused with him … he's got ~150 ISO number for his minor league career, which is fine. His profile seems to me to be a prototype of the "some of those doubles will be HRs" prospect.
In fact, everything about his stats (great K/BB rate, solid IsoP with low HR total, fabulous OBP) screams "MLB success" to me. If anything, he's already underrated, imo. I think he's by far the easiest guy to project filling in his one perceived hole in his stats at the beginning of next year.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 12:04:59 GMT -5
Well I agree with this premise on Cecchini as the most likely to transfer his current skill set to the MLB level based on current information (i.e. Owens command, Swiharts still developing bat and def). However when asked the question about who will be the #1 prospect as of mid-June I expect the #1 spot will still have more weight on who performs the best during the beginning stretch of the season than future projection at least with the readers who buy into the "now". And you can still dream on more upside with Owens and Swihart where as IMO many probably see Cecchini as more of a finished product who really only has the HR power department to improve in offensively.
I'd say Cecchini's the safest prospect to have MLB value as a average regular starter so maybe thats a #1. For some it's a combination of current production and upside projection and that's more Owens and Swihart IMO. I went with Owens because I think he performs at the higher level for the first few months and has some adjustment struggles the 2nd half as the league starts to see him another time around at which point I believe Swihart starts to make his move. All along I expect Cecchini will stay consistently in the top 3 because thats who he is and what he does.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 10, 2013 12:42:39 GMT -5
I will say that Ranaudo ends up making the jump up to the number one slot. He has the pedigree, pitched in a very good college conference, and has shown the most successful mix of stuff, control and performance at the highest levels of the minors of any prospect who is not likely to graduate by next summer (I think both Bogaerts and Bradley are at ss and cf respectively all season). Swihart and Cecchini will be right there with him, I believe.
Ranaudo, Swihart, Cecchini, Owens, Webster, Barnes, Betts, Margot, Ball and Vazquez are my top ten picks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2013 9:05:24 GMT -5
[Solid analysis of Wright ...] Even (especially?) if Wright wasn't a knuckleballer, most observers would look at the above numbers and conclude that while he has potential (especially if the HR suppression is a real skill), he doesn't exactly look like a superstar in disguise. Only time will tell, and I'm intrigued enough to happily give him a spot in the Pawtucket rotation, even if it means bumping someone like De La Rosa or Hinojosa to piggyback/bullpen duty at the start of the season. But his odds of repeating that stretch certainly seem low to me, and I'm genuinely puzzled why you think he's so great. To me, he looks like the second coming of Chris Hernandez-- a pitcher whose profile (crafty lefty:knuckleballer) provides some hope that his outperformance of his peripherals is sustainable (Hernandez, 2012: 4.12 FIP, 3.26 ERA), but which is most likely just unsustainable SSS luck. Oh, I'm with you, and guilty of exaggeration, because it seems to be necessary to catch the attention of people who are completely dismissing him, or merely grossly underrating him. I mean, this site has him at 42, behind Nick Longhi! I think I'd have him at about 26, and I don't think there's a sound counter-argument against that. The guy has already had some very encouraging success in MLB, which is something the majority of prospects listed ahead of him will never get close to. Two things I will note with his stats. First, inconsistent minor league pitchers can have inflated numbers, since there will often be a slower hook when they're clearly having an off day -- you want the pitcher to work on the ability to fix errant mechanics mid-game. Wright had two awful starts where he had a 40.0% GB%, a .465 BABIP, 6 BB and 5 SO, and gave up his only home run. But he pitched 10 innings in those 2 starts, which is probably twice as much as he would have if his team were trying to win. (And since his K rate was 9.1% instead of his otherwise 17.3%, the starts had an even more disproportionate number of his balls in play.) In his other 10 starts, he had a 58.7% GB% and a .245 BABIP. (If you discount the two bad starts by 50% as I suggested, his second-half BABIP is .267.) And you might be able to guess the other thing: given the GB% and the quality of defense behind them, that is exceptional, and exactly what you're looking for in a knuckleballer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2013 9:35:04 GMT -5
[...] The notion that there should be some inherent bias against him simply because he throws the knuckleball is something no actual competent baseball executive would entertain. [..] Since outpitching every other prospect in the system is precisely what Wright did in the second half last year, I don't think this is all that unlikely. We're about two more months away from deciding, that's how good a pitcher he more or less actually is, right now. And, yes, the odds of him repeating that performance are less than if he were a conventional pitcher [...] Hilarious! The first is the classic bad rhetorical trick of saying that anyone who disagrees with you is incompetent. In the second, you are saying "there should be some inherent bias against him simply because he throws the knuckleball"! Look up the definition of the word "bias." (I'm contemplating posting the rest of the reply in the Throwdown forum ... it certainly entertained me.)
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 11, 2013 10:09:10 GMT -5
Knuckleball pitchers should be looked at for what they are... You want to call it bias, I call it guarded skepticism. They provide value and so could Wright . It's not unreasonable to think Wright doesn't have MUCH (not any) place in this organization. Especially, if like me you feel Workman should start in the AAA rotation and like you and everyone else you feel he's behind (Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo, Ruby and Webster - leaving Owens out of it bc he's in AA). Why do I want the number 26 or 42 prospect taking starts away from my top 10 guys?
Saunfy he's overlooked because of this is somewhat outlandish. Also, you are questioning him due to the fact he throws a knuckleball just like everyone else so I don't understand the point of your frustrations.
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