SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Create your own adventure: You're the GM!
|
Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2013 15:59:01 GMT -5
Here's v.1 of jmei's ideal offseason plan. Comments and feedback welcome.
Trade Acquire 1B Aramis Ramirez from MIL for RF Bryce Brentz and SP Justin Haley Trade 1B Mike Carp to PIT for OF Josh Bell and SP Luis Heredia
Sign C Brian McCann to a four year, $68m contract with a fifth year team option CF Chris Young to a two year, $16m contract SS Stephen Drew to a three year, $36m contract RP Edward Mujica to a two year, $12m contract RP Ryan Madson to a one year, minor league contract with a split $2.5m salary (if he makes the major leagues)
Starting lineup (versus RHP) RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Aramis Ramirez C Brian McCann 3B Xander Bogaerts SS Stephen Drew CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bench C David Ross 3B Will Middlebrooks LF Jonny Gomes CF Chris Young
Rotation LHP Jon Lester RHP John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy
Bullpen RHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller RHP Brayan Villareal RHP Ryan Dempster *[LHP Franklin Morales] *[RHP Brandon Workman] *[LHP Drake Britton]
(*assuming at least one Spring Training injury means one or more of the asterisked pitchers makes the Opening Day roster.)
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Nov 7, 2013 16:06:09 GMT -5
I would totally love that offseason jmei. I do think the Carp trade is unrealistic. Coming off a career year that involved some luck I think he's bound for regression. Josh Bell is a major outbreak candidate in 2014 and I doubt Pittsburgh would accept such a trade. Heredia plus a guy like JaCoby Jones seems more reasonable to me.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Nov 7, 2013 16:09:13 GMT -5
Also, I don't think Villareal's control issues warrant a bullpen spot. Unless he lights out in ST I think the relievers you've put between brackets all have a leg up.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Nov 7, 2013 16:17:38 GMT -5
Here's v.1 of jmei's ideal offseason plan. Comments and feedback welcome. TradeAcquire 1B Aramis Ramirez from MIL for RF Bryce Brentz and SP Justin Haley Trade 1B Mike Carp to PIT for OF Josh Bell and SP Luis Heredia SignC Brian McCann to a four year, $68m contract with a fifth year team option CF Chris Young to a two year, $16m contract SS Stephen Drew to a three year, $36m contract RP Edward Mujica to a two year, $12m contract RP Ryan Madson to a one year, minor league contract with a split $2.5m salary (if he makes the major leagues) Starting lineup (versus RHP) RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Aramis Ramirez C Brian McCann 3B Xander Bogaerts SS Stephen Drew CF Jackie Bradley Jr. BenchC David Ross 3B Will Middlebrooks LF Jonny Gomes CF Chris Young RotationLHP Jon Lester RHP John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy BullpenRHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller RHP Brayan Villareal RHP Ryan Dempster *[LHP Franklin Morales] *[RHP Brandon Workman] *[LHP Drake Britton] (*assuming at least one Spring Training injury means one or more of the asterisked pitchers makes the Opening Day roster.) Are you talking about $5M bonus baby Josh Bell? 'Cause, if you are, Mike Carp ain't gonna cut it. I'm also of the mind that you just need to see what Middlebrooks can do over a season. So, I wouldn't sign Drew and would go with Bogaerts and WMB on the left side.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 7, 2013 16:26:36 GMT -5
People need to stop freaking out over Drew if he returns. The rotation between the three of them would work. Play Drew at SS when there is a right-handed pitcher and X-man at SS when facing left-handed pitching. The Sox can also alternate WMB and the X-Man over at 3B depending on who the hot hand is. Plus, least we forget that Drew is still a Drew and injury is not out of the realm of possibility. Perhaps it would also make sense for WMB to start taking reps at other positions like 1B or LF so that he can be more versatile and get his bat in the lineup more often?
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 16:30:35 GMT -5
Yes. I was wondering as well. In this scenario you present jmei Middlebrooks as a bench player seems a waste of value to me and it is more likely he would need to be involved in the deal with Pittsburgh in place of Carp. I know you desperately want to trade Carp but I can't imagine a return of that level. Either that or Carp would need to have a prospect in the package such as a lower level "higher risk" SP.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Nov 7, 2013 16:35:58 GMT -5
People need to stop freaking out over Drew if he returns. The rotation between the three of them would work. Play Drew at SS when there is a right-handed pitcher and X-man at SS when facing left-handed pitching. The Sox can also alternate WMB and the X-Man over at 3B depending on who the hot hand is. Plus, least we forget that Drew is still a Drew and injury is not out of the realm of possibility. Perhaps it would also make sense for WMB to start taking reps at other positions like 1B or LF so that he can be more versatile and get his bat in the lineup more often? People need to stop freaking out because someone's last name is Drew. In all seriousness, he won't return. If he accepts the QO, then they'll likely try to work out a trade. Bogaerts is ready, they feel like he's a SS, they won't carry two starting ML SS's on the team. I would be surprised to learn that anyone on here is freaking out about the thought of Stepen Drew being on the Sox again. It's more that we have a more than qualified, in-house replacement for him, so there is no need to keep him.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2013 16:45:39 GMT -5
The reason I think Pittsburgh bites on that deal is that they need a cheap left-handed first baseman (to platoon with Gaby Sanchez), and even a regressed version of Carp is better, less risky, and has higher upside than the alternatives (Loney or Morneau). They're also a team that (a) feels the pressure to win now and (b) has a deep enough farm system that they can talk themselves into trading a high upside guy like Bell because they still have Jameson Taillon and Gregory Polanco as top 30 prospects, not to mention others like Alen Hanson and Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow to fill out the top 100. I also think many of you are overrating Josh Bell-- after he missed an entire year with his knee injury, he's more a back-end top 100 guy (he isn't found on this list, for instance), albeit one with upside. If the Red Sox desperately needed a first baseman, wouldn't you at least think about Mookie Betts (a guy who I think has similar value as Bell) for Mike Carp? (OK, maybe including Heredia as well was a bit much, but I can dream, can't I? Feel free to sub out Luis for a more viable B-level prospect if you want.) Fair point on Villareal-- to be honest, I didn't think much about the back end of the bullpen, and I could see Workman or Britton or Morales taking that spot. Villareal is out of options, though, and the Red Sox like to maximize their depth early in the season, so I could see his upside sticking. The problem if you rely on Will Middlebrooks as the starting 3B is that this organization lacks any viable fill-in candidate. Last year, they had Iglesias early and Bogaerts late, but if Will struggles again or is injured, your early-season backup is Brock Holt (the consummate replacement-level player) or a guy who has all of 295 PAs in Portland (Cecchini). Middlebrooks will still get plenty of at-bats in this rotation, and if he has success again, you can trade him when his trade value will be much higher. Plus, it's not like the options on the free agent market are any good-- the only other guys who can backup SS/3B are right-handed and either expensive (Jhonny Peralta, Juan Uribe) or bad (John McDonald, Brendan Ryan, etc). In this projection, Drew doesn't sign until January as the SS needy teams (Cardinals, Mets) find other options and his market is hamstrung by the QO. Depth is clearly important to this front office, and building multiple layers of it at a position that both maximizes major league performance (by effectively platooning Drew with Middlebrooks, both players with big L/R splits) and provides a starting-caliber player to protect against injury seems like a no-brainer, especially on a reasonable, short-term deal. I think of it this way-- last year, the intriguing opportunity to sign Drew fell to the Red Sox late, and they seized it, even if it meant "blocking" Jose Iglesias, who looked like he had nothing else to learn at Pawtucket. I think the same thing might happen this year, especially as the team finds itself with lots of payroll space and no better way of upgrading the team with it. Some other thoughts: -If you're high on Mike Carp or don't think he'll return much via trade, I'm also pretty comfortable leaving him on the roster and instead forgo signing a more versatile 4th outfielder like Young. It wouldn't be ideal, for reasons I've discussed earlier in this thread, but it wouldn't be awful. -I think Napoli on a deal longer than two years is a losing proposition, and his profile (a streaky right-handed power hitter with a long swing and increasing trouble catching up to fastballs) screams red flags to me. -Aramis Ramirez seems like the ideal short-term solution at 1B-- he's due $16m in 2014 and has a $14m mutual option (with a $4m buyout) in 2015. That's a good bit of money, but it's on a short-term deal, and Ramirez seems like the consistent right-handed middle-of-the-order hitter this team needs (wRC+s since 2009: 136, 134, 141, 132).
|
|
|
Post by redsox1534 on Nov 7, 2013 16:49:57 GMT -5
Doubt highly the Pirates give up Bell an Heredia for Carp doubt they would give one of them up for him. Id love to get one or both for Carp. Love both prospects alot. Nick Kingham, Alex Dickerson and Barret Barnes are more likely to be a headliner in a deal for Carp. One of them not all three.
This team needs to get another big bat. Id love Stanton but that aint happening. Id stay away from Carlos Gonzalez because Coors field is a big factor in his game. I love him but hes not gonna be the same player in Boston as in Coors and is due for huge money in a couple years. Id say our best shot at getting a big bat is going young. Calling a team like the Astros about Jonathan Singelton or Goerge Farmer, Cubs about Kris Bryant, Daniel Vogelbach, ( further away, and Baez isnt go no were)Rangers about Profar, and Andrus even if he isnt a big bat Id love to get him an a big bat, Marlins about Christian Yelich, Cards about Taveras and Adams, Mets about D'arnaud, D-Backs about Davidson. I no some of those teams would move one of those players in a top prospect for top prospect(s) swap.
MLB guys like Cespedes, Kemp, Trumbo, Cargo, Josh Donaldson, Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie, Bautista, Encarnarcion, Belt, Headly, and guys I wouldnt rule out to be had at the right price, Puig, Sandoval, Hosmer, Nick Franklin, Justin Smoak, Zunino, Kyle Seager.
So what it comes down to is how many teams are searious about giving up one of those guys, do we match up and the price.
If I could get Lawrie for WMB and Devin Merrero/Brian Johnson Id be all over it id even go a little higher then that proposal to get him. Then Land Zunino that be my dream offseason or one of them. I doubt we ever get Zunino because we dont match up well for a trade for Zunino and hes a key piece to there future an they want more offense as it is. D'Arnaud isnt unrealistic tho.
I think its gonna take a trade or two an for a young player to get the big bat we want.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 7, 2013 17:04:25 GMT -5
Hmmm..... 1. [Win negotiating rights] Sign Tanaka 2. Sign McCann 3. Sign relievers based on money available - could be any from Nathan to Betancourt to Crain to Manny Parra - haven't kept track of who's actually good vs having a good stretch. Trade Miller. 4. Trade for a young 1B/RF to complement the OF Lester - Buchholz - Lackey - Tanaka - Doubront - Bullpen Nava - JBJ - Victorino WMB - Bogaerts - Pedroia - Carp - McCann - Papi (Gomes - OF Acquisition - Holt/IF Acquisition - Ross) Obviously Peavy & Dempster are extraneous in this scenario. I don't see a need to eat any salary, as has been suggested, unloading Dempster, as he is a fine back-end starter on a short deal, while Peavy should bring some return. So I'm $30M under budget, give or take, before adding relievers. Maybe Dempster stays as 6th starter.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 7, 2013 17:55:47 GMT -5
I would add that this is a really weird off season based on Sox needs and talent available. Last year I had a very clear idea of what I would do and who I would go after. This year it's much more amorphous, in part because I'm not blown away by the free agent talent for the most part, and in part because I know all the Sox prospects won't be MLB regulars but some are still valued highly by other organizations - as well as the very real trade value that Peavy, Dempster and Doubront have. This makes the trade market potential much more interesting to me, especially with some juicy obvious targets like Stanton (want him), Price and possibly Scherzer out there, and a few others that don't seem so apparent.
The free agents that interest me most are, in order:
Tanaka - I think this is an amazing opportunity, especially with him being just 25, and the trade possibilities such an acquisition would open up for positions of need. And as people have said here, most of the money is nonlux tax. Golden opportunity. He's not Darvish, but if he's a 25 yr old #2 pitcher, this is a tremendous deal waiting to happen. Ellsbury - I keep thinking this is Johnny Damon part II, and what a mistake I believe it was letting him go, not just in lost production and a good lead-off man for 2.5 years, but in terms of resources used in the wake of letting him go for a bit more than market value to cover his loss (and the domino effect that caused in other areas. True there was no JBJ waiting in AAA then, but I see this as a chance to maximize resources "just for money" and have an OF of Bradley(LF)-Ells(CF)-Victorino(RF) for 2-3 years, then Ells-Bradley-Player X in years 4-5 (+ possible option). Ruiz - A much better buy on 1-2 years than McCann on 5. And someone will give him 5. Mujica/Wilson/Nathan - Pick one, give him 2 years and let him know he'll have the opportunity to close on all those nights when Koji can't (or we want to rest him), and otherwise he'll be there to "close" the 8th inning. Drew - 1 year if he accepts the Qualifying Offer, 3 years if they decide to include Middlebrooks in a package for Stanton or another blue chip player, cause Xander ain't goin nowhere. I'm torn on Napoli. The Ks and sinking OBP from May to August were brutal. Then again, he seems to personally beat the Yankees every time we played them and when he hits it goes a long way. I just wish they could get him to stay as selective as he was in the first and last 6 weeks of the season for the other 20 weeks. I guess I would give him 2 x $12M with incentives that could bring each year to $15M, but that would come with a clause that he never bats higher than 6th when he goes into a funk (I wish). If you let Napoli walk then I'd grab Youkilis on a 1 year low floor incentive-laden deal with an option. He'll platoon at 1st with Nava/Carp and serve as a break glass option at 3rd if Middlebrooks goes down and Bogaerts is SS. Also designated bat off the bench to face lefties. Yes, you're not getting typical 1st base HR production here but between a Youk/Nava platoon you should get 20+ HRs and high OBP against LH & RH pitching.
But basically I'd go all in for Tanaka, Ellsbury and Stanton (no Bogaerts so prob be Doubront + one of Middlebrooks/Bradley + one of Webster/Barnes + one of Swihart/Betts/Marrero or some similar combination). You get that and the rest you can piece together pretty quickly and still stay well under the luxury tax (then extend Stanton later in the year or next year). Then you open against Balt with:
Ells Pedoria Ortiz Stanton (if you make the trade; Napoli if you don't) Bogaerts Napoli (unless no Napoli; then Nava/Carp here vs RHP; Victorino here vs LHP) Victorino (Youk vs. LHP; Shane in the 6 hole vs LHP) Drew Ruiz
Lester/Buchholz/Lackey/Tanaka/Peavy or Dempster (whomever you don't trade). Workman's first guy up when someone goes down and Ranaudo is next in line.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2013 18:04:57 GMT -5
I'm torn on Napoli. The Ks and sinking OBP from May to August were brutal. Then again, he seems to personally beat the Yankees every time we played them and when he hits it goes a long way. I just wish they could get him to stay as selective as he was in the first and last 6 weeks of the season for the other 20 weeks. When Napoli slumps, it's never because he stops being selective-- looking at his monthly splits, his walk rate are pretty damn consistent through the middle of the year. His slumps come from his timing being off and just not making enough contact, especially on pitches in the zone. Remember, Napoli had the worst contact rate in the league on pitches in the zone in 2013 and the sixth lowest contact rate overall. When he gets into one of those funks where he can't even foul pitches off, he becomes pretty much an automatic strikeout once you hang two strikes on him.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Nov 7, 2013 18:27:38 GMT -5
I do hope we kick the tires on Aramis over Napoli like Jemi's mock offseason. He strikes out a lot less than Napoli and could back up 3B too.
I know Buster Onley has been saying the past few days after his stint in the majors evaluators don't think Xander can play SS and that 3B is his position but I'd like to give him more time for us to decide. Also it would give us more time with WMBs. I don't know if that OBA will ever be good but he could realistically put up Nelson Cruz numbers and play decent D.
As far as Stanton goes I don't think they trade him this offseason. I wouldn't mind hoarding prospects and June draft picks though for whenever that does happen.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 7, 2013 18:46:41 GMT -5
I'm torn on Napoli. The Ks and sinking OBP from May to August were brutal. Then again, he seems to personally beat the Yankees every time we played them and when he hits it goes a long way. I just wish they could get him to stay as selective as he was in the first and last 6 weeks of the season for the other 20 weeks. When Napoli slumps, it's never because he stops being selective-- looking at his monthly splits, his walk rate are pretty damn consistent through the middle of the year. His slumps come from his timing being off and just not making enough contact, especially on pitches in the zone. Remember, Napoli had the worst contact rate in the league on pitches in the zone in 2013 and the sixth lowest contact rate overall. When he gets into one of those funks where he can't even foul pitches off, he becomes pretty much an automatic strikeout once you hang two strikes on him. I agree. I just remember him chasing stuff the worse the slump got. I never saw a a nonpitcher miss as many fastballs in the zone as he did during June and July. Just brutal when it happens, and it seemed to continue for a solid 7-8 weeks (at least).
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 7, 2013 19:13:13 GMT -5
Jmei, like a lot of the plan.
I don't mind Aramis as a backup plan if Napoli exceeds 3/39 to resign and hopefully the last year is a team or vesting option. Aramis is injury riddled and old, plus he's never played first base. We would likely be downgrading defensively. Napoli was very strong defensively. Biggest mistakes were from a lack of experience. Like when to leave the base, etc.
You think Mujica is worth that dough? He's sketch, I would like him on the right deal but that seems excessive. I'd rather add 3m annually and get a Balfour for two years. I don't care if he closes to be honest. I'd prefer Koji in a non-closer role for Boston next year for a lot of reasons. I really don't want to waste him in easy save situations because he's the closer. I'd also prefer to sign a "closer" who's a good relief pitcher and Balfour is that guy in my opinion. Koji was used a lot last season.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 7, 2013 21:07:40 GMT -5
When Napoli slumps, it's never because he stops being selective-- looking at his monthly splits, his walk rate are pretty damn consistent through the middle of the year. His slumps come from his timing being off and just not making enough contact, especially on pitches in the zone. Remember, Napoli had the worst contact rate in the league on pitches in the zone in 2013 and the sixth lowest contact rate overall. When he gets into one of those funks where he can't even foul pitches off, he becomes pretty much an automatic strikeout once you hang two strikes on him. I agree. I just remember him chasing stuff the worse the slump got. I never saw a a nonpitcher miss as many fastballs in the zone as he did during June and July. Just brutal when it happens, and it seemed to continue for a solid 7-8 weeks (at least). The comps for this kind of hitter are there, right? Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla, etc. And it seems like the theme with all these guys is that the strikeout rate steadily increases over time until it becomes untenable, and then that player is done. Like once you've been in the majors seven seasons and your K rate has been trending upwards the entire time, it doesn't tend to reverse itself ever. It gets to somewhere in the 35% area and you hit .179 and that's it. Mike Napoli was 31 this season and he struck out in 32.4% of his PAs. Only Chris Carter struck out more often among qualified hitters. I'd be surprised if Napoli has more than one good season left in him.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 22:14:03 GMT -5
I do like the Aramis Ramirez idea. I thought in the past he would make a solid 3rd base option in addition to Middlebrooks but if you can teach him 1st and still use him in a partial platoon with Middlebrooks it would add great depth value. You could play Ramirez at 3rd during inter league games and allow Ortiz to play 1st. It would really create such great flexibility in setting a lineup. Especially if the team did resign Drew. You essentially would have two solid possibilities or more at each position. 3rd would be Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Ramirez. SS would be Bogaerts and Drew. 2nd would be Pedroia and Middlebrooks. 1B would be Ramirez, Carp, Nava and on a limited basis Ortiz.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2013 23:55:33 GMT -5
You think Mujica is worth that dough? He's sketch, I would like him on the right deal but that seems excessive. I'd rather add 3m annually and get a Balfour for two years. I don't care if he closes to be honest. I'd prefer Koji in a non-closer role for Boston next year for a lot of reasons. I really don't want to waste him in easy save situations because he's the closer. I'd also prefer to sign a "closer" who's a good relief pitcher and Balfour is that guy in my opinion. Koji was used a lot last season. Well, by xFIP, Mujica has been better than Balfour in each of the last three years. Balfour has better strikeout numbers, but he's also an extreme fly ball pitcher who has pitched in one of the largest home ballparks in the league. Mujica's groundball tendencies and excellent control are far more appealing to me, and he's seven years younger (and likely to come cheaper). LaTroy Hawkins is another reliever in the same vein (middling Ks, but few walks and lots of ground balls) that is interesting.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Nov 8, 2013 9:25:53 GMT -5
At this stage I think the priorities for this off-season are, in order of importance:
Center Field Can't believe I'm saying this but a return of Ellsbury really is the best fit. I'd love to see JBJ take over but his readiness at the plate concerns me, and there really is no other viable option in the system any time soon. He fits better time-wise and production-wise as the bridge to the end of Victorino's contract than Ellsbury's, which gives him another year to develop while serving as a strong back up plan to any Victorino (or Ellsbury) injury.
First Base/Third Base I really like the idea of Aramis Ramirez to play 1B, not only because of his abilities but how he fits on the roster. As a single roster spot he fills 1B and provides insurance behind WMB who also concerns me a bit. If Ramirez were to slide to 3rd it gives Carp more AB's which I think could be a good thing. Carp's AB's were very inconsistent this year and despite that he had good success.
Another reliever Bullpen depth has wrecked so many seasons over the years, and having it this past season was huge. I'd love to see a guy like Hawkins added to the mix, and am also hopeful Hanrahan could be retained on a minor league deal as he's an ideal buy low guy and could be eased back slowly over the year.
Middle infielder I have no idea who is a good fit here and think a trade will be necessary, but feel it is an underrated but critical need for 2014 if you play a hard nosed 2B, a 21 YO shortstop and a shaky 3B.
Catcher This spot is not as big of a need to me because I really have no problem bringing Vazquez up sooner rather than later to pair with Ross, especially if you can bring back Ellsbury. Let Butler start the year in Boston if necessary. My original preference was McCann but I feel his contract is going to be way too big to justify the length and cost.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 8, 2013 10:34:28 GMT -5
Alex Speier calculates that the Red Sox probably only have somewhere in the range of $32m to spend this offseason: As usual, I've underspent the budget, unless I blow $20M or something on relievers, which doesn't seem likely or advisable. I have to admit Aramis Ramirez does seem like a good fit, though I wonder about the acquisition cost, while Eric Chavez would (again this year) be a sensible option at a much lower cost.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Nov 8, 2013 13:20:15 GMT -5
I think they sign Salty to a 4yr deal with a 5th yr team option, Drew to a 2yr deal with a 3rd yr team option & Beltran to a 2yr deal. Ellsbury & Napoli sign elswhere. Victorino, Beltran, Pedroia, Ortiz, Bogaerts, Nava, Middlebrooks, Salty, Drew
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 8, 2013 14:15:24 GMT -5
My personal offseason plan: (Mods please feel free to delete/move/or burn) -Let Napoli and Drew walk with no real attempt to do otherwise. -Offer Ellsbury a 5 year / 110 million contract. Which he will probably refuse. At that point you let him sign his 7 year deal elsewhere. -Non-tender Bailey -Trade Jake Peavey (16.5 million) and Bryce Brentz ? to the Arizona Diamonbacks for Martin Prado (10 million). The DBacks have very little starting pitching, but a very solid second basemen in Hill and a better version of WMB in AAA (less pop more OBP) who is ready for the majors. Prado may not be necessary. We would need to sweeten the pot, I am just not quite sure with what. - Trade the Reds for Ryan Hannigan (Should come cheap) or sign Carlos Ruiz for 2/16. -Sign Curtis Granderson to play Left Field and platoon him with Jonny Gomes. 3/39 + loss of pick. -Dump Dempster for salary relief - let say we eat 4.4 million (savings - 9 million). -Trade Daniel Nava and Will Middlebrooks to the Kansas City Royals for Sam Selman and Jason Adam. -Post for and Sign Masahiro Tanaka (Post fee of 55 Million plus 6 year 90 million dollar contract) - Make RDLR a reliever and sign one of Balfour, Mujica, Valverde, Dotel, et all who ever is cheap.
We would lose our first round pick, but gain the three from Drew, Ells, Napoli. While only adding 13.5 million in payroll (not including the relievers- to me that is secondary). And our 2014 Sox would look like this: Shane Victorino - RF Dustin Pedroia - 2B Matin Prado - 3B David Ortiz - DH Curtis Granderson - LF Xander - SS Mike Carp - 1B Jackie Bradley - CF Ryan Hannigan - Cather
1) Lester 2) Bucholz 3) Tanaka 4) Lackey 5) Doubrount (Webster and Ranaudo as depth)
Koji Taz Mujica? Workman Morales Britton Miller
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 8, 2013 14:51:49 GMT -5
Here's v.1 of jmei's ideal offseason plan. Comments and feedback welcome. TradeAcquire 1B Aramis Ramirez from MIL for RF Bryce Brentz and SP Justin Haley Trade 1B Mike Carp to PIT for OF Josh Bell and SP Luis Heredia SignC Brian McCann to a four year, $68m contract with a fifth year team option CF Chris Young to a two year, $16m contract SS Stephen Drew to a three year, $36m contract RP Edward Mujica to a two year, $12m contract RP Ryan Madson to a one year, minor league contract with a split $2.5m salary (if he makes the major leagues) Starting lineup (versus RHP) RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Aramis Ramirez C Brian McCann 3B Xander Bogaerts SS Stephen Drew CF Jackie Bradley Jr. BenchC David Ross 3B Will Middlebrooks LF Jonny Gomes CF Chris Young RotationLHP Jon Lester RHP John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy BullpenRHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller RHP Brayan Villareal RHP Ryan Dempster *[LHP Franklin Morales] *[RHP Brandon Workman] *[LHP Drake Britton] (*assuming at least one Spring Training injury means one or more of the asterisked pitchers makes the Opening Day roster.) Absolutely love the Aramis Ramirez idea. Still has the pop and he never strikes out in the triple digits (besides 100 even back in 2001 over 655 PA's). Hits lefties a little better but still OPS's above .800 against righties. His defense at third is pretty poor due to his range, but I'm sure he'd be a solid-enough first baseman, and the flexibility to move across the diamond when needed is valuable. I'm not sure Brentz and Haley get that done - tossing in some players to bolster the Brewers lack of depth at 1B and 3B could help, but we'd need to limit what we dish out since A-Ram would only be around short-term. Man, now that I think about it, get that done. Ramirez over Napoli any day. Other thoughts: - Mujica is intriguing, but $12m is a little large to hand out to a guy who could end up being our 4th or 5th best reliever. I'd consider looking at Veras who would come cheaper. - Love the Drew and McCann propositions, but worry other teams will pony up larger deals (and I wouldn't go higher, and certainly not longer). D-Ross, convince McCann he needs to come to Boston! - $16m to C-Young? I like the idea of him backing up for us, but that's way too much $$$. He struggled mightily adapting to a part-time role while healthy. His defense and pop would be nice, but if he's costing more than $5m in AAV, I look elsewhere. - Love your RHP lineup. - WMB as the only backup infielder? I guess with a healthy Pedroia, you don't need a backup 2B, and you could platoon Drew with WMB. Plus, A-Ram at 3B and Nava at 1B is always an option. Packaging WMB in a deal and getting a Bloomquist type could make some sense and add a lot of flexibility.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2013 15:10:37 GMT -5
Version 2.0, edited to reflect the diminished payroll space the Red Sox have this offseason.
Trade Acquire 1B/3B Aramis Ramirez from MIL for RF Bryce Brentz and SP Justin Haley
Sign C Carlos Ruiz to a two year, $18m contract SS/2B Nick Punto to a one year, $3m contract RP Edward Mujica to a two year, $12m contract RP Ryan Madson to a one year, minor league contract with a split $2.5m salary (if he makes the major leagues) SS Munenori Kawasaki to a minor league contract OF Trevor Crowe to a minor league contract
Starting lineup (versus RHP) RF Shane Victorino 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Aramis Ramirez LF Daniel Nava SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Will Middlebrooks C Carlos Ruiz CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bench C David Ross LF Jonny Gomes 1B Mike Carp SS/2B Nick Punto
Rotation LHP Jon Lester RHP John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy
Bullpen RHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller RHP Brayan Villareal RHP Ryan Dempster *[LHP Franklin Morales] *[RHP Brandon Workman] *[LHP Drake Britton]
(*assuming at least one Spring Training injury means one or more of the asterisked pitchers makes the Opening Day roster.)
Total payroll increase: approximately $30m
Changes -Had to cut a lot of cost and go with cheaper players. Ruiz at $9m a year is still great value for a guy I think will bounce back next year, while old friend Nick Punto is the ideal fit at backup infielder, considering his switch-hitting and his steady defense at multiple positions. I also kept Carp instead of signing Chris Young to save cash, though that means that Victorino needs to stay healthy and JBJ needs to produce as the depth option (slide over Nava to RF, Gomes in LF) is much weaker. -Aramis Ramirez is still a far better option than re-signing Napoli for three years at $14m+ per year, and the latest news should be an indication that Napoli isn't going to take much of a hometown discount. He only counts $12m versus the luxury tax, though he'll get paid $16m this year. He also backs up Middlebrooks in case he struggles. -The lineup is very right-handed heavy, but there's no way to get around that. -I threw in a couple depth minor league signings. Another guy to keep an eye on is Willie Bloomquist, but I didn't include him because I think he'll get a guaranteed ML deal, which the Red Sox don't have roster space to offer unless he replaces Punto (which is a bad idea because Bloomquist is versatile defensively but bad at all the positions he can play). -I still didn't trade any of the rotation depth, because the Red Sox still have an injury-prone rotation (Buchholz, Doubront, Peavy) and the pitching is going to have to help carry the team. I would consider trading Dempster or Peavy to open up salary space, but don't know who would take even most of their salaries and offer enough in return to make it worth it.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2013 15:23:16 GMT -5
I'm not sure Brentz and Haley get that done - tossing in some players to bolster the Brewers lack of depth at 1B and 3B could help, but we'd need to limit what we dish out since A-Ram would only be around short-term. I think that might be enough because the Brewers should want to cut payroll (so they can improve their starting pitching) and Ramirez is due a whopping $16m next year. But other commentators apparently think the Brewers might want to contend in 2014, so maybe the Red Sox will need to offer something more enticing or Ramirez just isn't on the market. I also forgot about Khris Davis, who Brewers fans are optimistic about, so maybe Brentz isn't a fit. I'm comfortable upping the offer to someone like Anthony Ranaudo, who is a sell-high candidate to me. Or maybe the Brewers could be interested in Mike Carp? As you mentioned, the Brewers desperately want a 1B/3B, but Middlebrooks or Cecchini would be too much to pay and the Red Sox don't have much else at those spots.
|
|
|