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Re-sign Stephen Drew? (5/20 EDIT: Drew re-signed 1yr deal)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 13, 2013 10:45:28 GMT -5
A 100 wRC+ third baseman with slightly below-average defense and neutral baserunning is about an average player (two wins, give or take). That's great for the league-minimum, but it also makes him probably the worst regular on the team (you can also make an argument for Pierzynski and Nava; Gomes is clearly worse but he's a bench player). If Drew ends up only requiring, say, two years and $26m (again, I think that's really unlikely, but that's the hypothetical we're all talking about here), that's probably by far the cheapest FA upgrade available. I'm totally guestimating here, but going from: 3B: Middlebrooks 600 PAs (2.1 wins), Holt 100 PAs (0.1 wins) SS: Bogaerts 600 PAs (3 wins), Holt 100 PAs (0.2 wins) to: 3B: Bogaerts 400 PAs (2 wins), Middlebrooks 300 PAs (1 win) SS: Bogaerts 200 PAs (1 win), Drew 500 PAs (3 wins) ...would net you about 1.5 wins, and that's not even considering any advantages from platooning Drew and Middlebrooks and the huge depth upgrade in case of injury. That's huge, and totally worth the cash, draft pick, and playing time opportunity cost for me. (It also gives you the flexibility to deal Middlebrooks if you get a good enough offer, but I'm more inclined to keep him unless there's an offer I can't refuse.) I think you've finally convinced me re-signing Drew might just be worth it. Do we have anyone that can play back up 2nd base though? I mean, the team has just invested a lot of money in Pedroia and I think they're going to need to give him some off days/innings here and there.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2013 11:05:07 GMT -5
In that scenario, Will Middlebrooks would also backup 2B. It might be too much to put on his plate, but he started learning the position in 2013, and if he can play a competent defensive 2B, he should be an upgrade on Holt there as well.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 11:08:33 GMT -5
He was atrocious at the plate in 2011 & 2012, so I think it comes down to whether scouting can answer the why to his collapse & resurgence. Well he seems to be good in the field and can play 3B/SS/2B. Main difference is he's right handed. It's a shame we couldn't get him to be our super utility IF. I've liked the idea of Uribe for a while now, but this is a good point; Drew wouldn't necessarily mean the end of Middlebrooks because they are opposite handed, with Uribe there wouldn't be that platoon advantage, so the at-bats wouldn't likely be there for Will. To the point about his offense in 2011-2012, that's definitely a concern, but his defense has been near elite at 3B, so even if he doesn't hit his floor is pretty high; he was also being used as a bench player, so he wasn't getting regular playing time, and he has crazy low BABIPs both years. Like I said, it's definitely still a concern, but I don't think it's a very big one, and it might make more sense than signing Drew to a bigger contract and losing the pick. Plus, Uribe is less apt to block Cecchini if/when he's ready because he could just be slid back into a utility role.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 11:23:38 GMT -5
Easy there sparky. No one is demanding anything other than the people demanding the Sox play Middlebrooks at 3b with no other real options should he continue to struggle.
No one is advocating giving up on WMB. The difference is some of us think you don't have to hand the job to him, but he can still develop if he's going to develop, while giving the team a stronger position for next year. Like I've said numerous times, I've been a huge Middlebrooks guy since the day he was drafted. I still hope he can figure it out, but I don't see the same value as some of you do in a player who gets on base at a .300 clip, Slugs .450, and doesn't add value defensively or offensively.
Those of you worried about him not getting enough AB's to develop is a valid concern (IMO - I know JMEI disagrees), but he's got minor league options. I have no issues sending him to AAA to work on his approach. Some may even argue that forcing a player into a major league role he's not ready for is worse for his development.
The one real positive I could find last year vs the year before was he did see more pitches per plate appearance. One of the highest numbers on the team and well above league average. It shows he's trying to change his approach some and he's battled through his minor league career showing steady improvement in areas as he's gone. I have no doubt he's intelligent and works hard so I have hope he's going to get to where he needs to be. I'm by no means sold on it. I see a lot of value in having a legit option there and believe they can still develop him without leaving themselves exposed.
On another note. Just because you're above replacement level (o.3 WAR) at an extremely crappy position value wise, doesn't make you a good player. What WMB being above replacement level last year means is it's hard to find good players at 3b right now. You know where else it's hard to find good players short stop. You know how the Sox can almost guarantee they get well above replacement level value at both spots next season? Drew at short and Xander at 3b.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 11:32:22 GMT -5
In that scenario, Will Middlebrooks would also backup 2B. It might be too much to put on his plate, but he started learning the position in 2013, and if he can play a competent defensive 2B, he should be an upgrade on Holt there as well. Yea, WMB while on the major league roster would backup second. there are basically 4 scenarios that could play out with Pedey missing time. 1. Just an off day - Pedey doesn't really actually take these, but WMB could play there for a game if necessary and if it's an off day, Pedey can come in for a D replacement late in a close game. In other words, he's available if necessary. 2. Pedey leaves a game with an injury - Again easy for WMB to play a few innings there. 3. Pedey misses w/out DL stint - two options here, roll with WMB for a few games in a row or use his option to send him to AAA and call up Holt. 4. Pedey on the DL - Call up Holt to replace Pedey on the roster and he probably gets most of the PT at 2nd, unless WMB has taken to the position really well - unlikely though The point is the team is covered well enough and the gamble is with one of the most durable toughest players in the game, who plays even when injured. The important thing is having the AAA option for a DL stint.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2013 11:36:20 GMT -5
The problem with sending WMB to AAA is that Cecchini is likely going to be there. WMB seems to be a bit of a headcase so to get him to develop is going to take a little coddling. I cannot see him improving in a backup role where he's getting 60 starts a year. His confidence must be built up, so he needs the opportunity to be rewarded for doing well. And with Drew on the team the only way that happens is by benching Xander. We saw this in action last year when Iglesias was in the middle of a .500 streak getting benched for half the games. The only time he got regular playing time was when either Drew was hurt or WMB got sent down.
Maybe that's just complete speculation, but you could see how lost WMB was when his confidence was shot by the time he was sent down last year. You can say screw coddling anyone and that's fine, but as an MLB GM, you really should take emotion out of it and try to get every player to develop as much as they possibly can by whatever means. You do not throw away or give up on potential until you are sure it is never going to be reached, no matter if you don't like the guy, he's just annoying to you, he's not the kind of player you like, he doesn't fit in with the team concept the Red Sox have, whatever. Always maximize your assets.
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Post by docman on Dec 13, 2013 11:55:00 GMT -5
Easy there sparky. No one is demanding anything other than the people demanding the Sox play Middlebrooks at 3b with no other real options should he continue to struggle. No one is advocating giving up on WMB. The difference is some of us think you don't have to hand the job to him, but he can still develop if he's going to develop, while giving the team a stronger position for next year. Like I've said numerous times, I've been a huge Middlebrooks guy since the day he was drafted. I still hope he can figure it out, but I don't see the same value as some of you do in a player who gets on base at a .300 clip, Slugs .450, and doesn't add value defensively or offensively. Those of you worried about him not getting enough AB's to develop is a valid concern (IMO - I know JMEI disagrees), but he's got minor league options. I have no issues sending him to AAA to work on his approach. Some may even argue that forcing a player into a major league role he's not ready for is worse for his development. The one real positive I could find last year vs the year before was he did see more pitches per plate appearance. One of the highest numbers on the team and well above league average. It shows he's trying to change his approach some and he's battled through his minor league career showing steady improvement in areas as he's gone. I have no doubt he's intelligent and works hard so I have hope he's going to get to where he needs to be. I'm by no means sold on it. I see a lot of value in having a legit option there and believe they can still develop him without leaving themselves exposed. On another note. Just because you're above replacement level (o.3 WAR) at an extremely crappy position value wise, doesn't make you a good player. What WMB being above replacement level last year means is it's hard to find good players at 3b right now. You know where else it's hard to find good players short stop. You know how the Sox can almost guarantee they get well above replacement level value at both spots next season? Drew at short and Xander at 3b. The thing your argument misses here is it ignores option value. If the Sox re-sign Drew, they lose the option to make WMB a regular (except by trading Drew, of course). That option has high value, because WMB is a power guy, and the Sox have very few of those right now. You want to kill the option of starting a guy with 30+ HR power? I certainly do not. I think the superior way to go is give Will the shot out of the gate, and if it doesn't work out, then make a mid-season trade. Even assuming that what you get is not as valuable as Drew, it doesn't have to be. It just has to be valuable enough to justify keeping your option to start WMB all year open.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 12:10:07 GMT -5
GMs do not extrapolate part time samples. You do, and as I have repeatedly pointed out you do so incorrectly. The two examples you used, Gentry and Eaton were top defensive players who play on the left side of the defensive spectrum. They were acquired not because the GMs involved were extrapolating their part time play but because they can play a premium defensive position very well. Middlebrooks isn't a premium defensive player and he plays 3B not CF. What is the market for a 26-27 year old part time 3B, even a good one? Not much.
But further wouldn't a full time 3-4 win 3B under team control for several years have value to the team even if you chose to keep him? That possibility goes away if you stick Middlebrooks on the bench or in AAA for two years.
Your backup plan would hopefully be Cecchini. I think you are making an assumption that you could trade Middlebrooks for something of value today. You can't. No GM is going to make him their every day 3B unless they can take a flier on him and acquire him at a very low cost. That value goes down if you turn him into a bench player. There is no real market for a 26-27 year old backup 3B.
In most years 1 or two extra wins doesn't win you the division. But I think you are missing the point. Basically throwing away Will Middlebrooks damages the teams chances of winning over the next several years. Though the team has substantial resources, they still have no choice but to give young players they believe in every chance to establish themselves as above average regulars or starters.
Further I think the Red Sox see it my way. Young cost controlled regular players and/or starting pitchers are so valuable that acquiring a veteran to block them for even one year is almost always the wrong move. The only real reason to do so, is if you don't believe the player is capable of being an average to above average regular as is the case with Ryan Lavarnway.
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Post by docman on Dec 13, 2013 12:18:37 GMT -5
You want to trade one of the few power-hitting youngsters the Sox have? Right...
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 12:52:39 GMT -5
Though the team has substantial resources, they still have no choice but to give young players they believe in every chance to establish themselves as above average regulars or starters. Further I think the Red Sox see it my way. Young cost controlled regular players and/or starting pitchers are so valuable that acquiring a veteran to block them for even one year is almost always the wrong move. The only real reason to do so, is if you don't believe the player is capable of being an average to above average regular as is the case with Ryan Lavarnway. What makes you believe that they see it your way? Any indication coming out of the Club is that they don't see it that way, unless you just completely ignore that they offered him a QO to come back for a year and that they keep saying they want him back. If they wanted nothing more than to move on from Drew and play WMB full time with the utmost confidence then why would they entertain bringing Drew back? Unless of course you want to simply dismiss that talk as meaningless because it doesn't fit your position. These things are fluid, you're making it out to be black and white. The Sox would take Drew back at the right very team friendly deal because he makes their team deeper and better. They have the luxury of only taking him back on an extremely team friendly deal because of Middlebrooks being a risk they're willing to take. Not necessarily the risk they want to take if they can steal Drew off the market. There's a lot of moving parts. It's not a fixed plain and simple choice environment, in the world Ben Cherrington operates.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 12:53:33 GMT -5
Let's be clear. Resigning Drew equates to giving up on Middlebrooks at least as a major league regular. Will Middlebrooks is already 25, meaning that he is at the age where he is either going to establish himself or be a bench player. If signing a player two years older to block him isn't giving up on him, I don't know what is.
Which leads us too......
First off you are wrong. Such a player does add value if he can play 3B. The player you described is essentially what David Friese did last year and he garnered a decent return in the trade market.
Secondly it's not unusual for players to improve substantially in their early 20s even if they already have 600 PAs. For example after his age 23 and 24 seasons Mo Vaughn had 650 or so major league plate appearances, an OBP in the low .330s and an SLG under .400 as a poor fielding 1B. Imagine had the team acquired a veteran 1B in the 92 off season.
I know I have said this before but there is evidence that Middlebrooks turned the corner with a substantial performance after he returned from the minors with a revamped swing and improved health. Though he'll never be a high OBP guy, I do believe that he can be the .275/.320/.480 player that he was after his return. For a 3B that's pretty valuable.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 13, 2013 13:02:14 GMT -5
Amen perfectly put.
I think this front office has taken a page from BB and uses published information strategically. I don't think Drew at any reasonable dollars or years was ever an intention.
I think Macdonald backing up everyone is realistic as I don't expect many off days before the break for Xander or Middlebrooks.
If there's an issue on the left side at the break it will be addressed.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 13:07:21 GMT -5
I'd be extremely happy with a .275/.320/.480 player out of WMB. Like I said, I believe there is hope for him, we just differ in our opinions of how likely it is to happen and the need to hand him the starting job. Last year our 2nd/SS/3b from the non Stephen Drew/WMB/Pedey division got 466 plate appearances. That was without even trying to create extra ABs for someone and Pedey playing 160 games. Yes I'm sure a decent number of those AB's overlapped, meaning they couldn't have gone to just one spot on the team. It's just not nearly the forgone conclusion you're making it out to be that WMB can't develop by getting Drew back, if Drew falls into their lap.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2013 13:12:22 GMT -5
Also keep in mind that it's possible that Cecchini forces his way onto the roster mid season. Add that chance (no matter how small) to WMB's chance at redeeming himself when determining whether Drew is worth it.
And also consider a Cecchini/WMB platoon later in the season.
Still, more than anything, Drew's chances of re-signing are based mostly on what the Red Sox want to do with Bogaerts' career. If they want him at SS, Drew won't be back even for a 1 year/one dollar contract. And that isn't even considering that Drew might not to want to sign whatsoever given the uncertainty involved in his playing time (at SS).
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 13:14:34 GMT -5
First off you are wrong. Such a player does add value if he can play 3B. The player you described is essentially what David Friese did last year and he garnered a decent return in the trade market. I'm sorry, but no I'm not wrong. It's impossible to be wrong when giving an opinion especially when I use language like "I don't see the same value as... you"
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 13:33:43 GMT -5
I wouldn't take too much stock in them telling the media that they want him back. They also said that they wanted Saltalamachia back and even offered him a contract. What they probably mean is that they want him back at an unreasonably low price which is unrealistic. So no in realistic terms I don't believe they want him back and won't end up signing him.
The QO doesn't mean anything either especially if they knew before hand that it would be refused.
I believe that the Red Sox see it my way for several reasons. They seem to have passed on several opportunities to acquire a less risky veteran to play CF for one. Second their rhertoic in every interview involves the importance of giving young players a chance.
But importantly I think you are wrong to dismiss the words of a former Red Sox employee, Eric Van, who knows more than you guys give him credit for. As I recall, he was the only person that I saw that touted Michael Almanzar as a possible rule five loss several months ago. The whole board laughed at his analysis at the time and insisted that Almanzar was a worthless player nobody wanted.
All of the evidence shows me that the the Red Sox will not sign Drew and essentially throw away Will Middlebrooks under any realistic scenario. They have shown every indication that they believe in Middlebrooks a lot more than you do.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 13:40:17 GMT -5
First off if by "falling into their lap" you mean that Drew signs for some unrealistically low price I sincerely doubt that's going to happen. Secondly how exactly is Middlebrooks going to develop sitting on a major league bench playing twice a week or in AAA facing Quad A pitchers for two years?
He isn't. 27 year old backup 3B usually don't turn into regulars.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 13, 2013 13:47:18 GMT -5
All of the evidence shows me that the the Red Sox will not sign Drew and essentially throw away Will Middlebrooks under any realistic scenario. They have shown every indication that they believe in Middlebrooks a lot more than you do. I don't think the Sox will sign Drew, especially if the Yankees really are in, but it stands to reason that if the Sox value Middlebrooks, other teams may value him similarly, and a reasonably fair trade, all things considered, is quite possible. WMB has striking similarity to Trumbo, shorter track record (downside but upside too) but importantly 2 more cheap years of control, at a position with scarcity.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 13, 2013 13:52:11 GMT -5
First off if by "falling into their lap" you mean that Drew signs for some unrealistically low price I sincerely doubt that's going to happen. Secondly how exactly is Middlebrooks going to develop sitting on a major league bench playing twice a week or in AAA facing Quad A pitchers for two years? He isn't. 27 year old backup 3B usually don't turn into regulars. To use your David Freese comparison, David Freese did just that. The real reason I bring up Freese is he's actually nothing like the player you thought he was. Freese gets on base.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 13:58:23 GMT -5
Jmei don't you think it's a little childish to have more than one handle In all seriousness I think that it's fair to read between the lines on some of these posts. I'm sorry if you guys don't like it but I think it leads to a more honest discussion. For instance, rj I think it's fair to interpret your statement to mean that you don't think a .300/.450 average fielding 3B has much value as a full time player. There are several reasons for that, which I won't bore you with, but that's clearly the intent of the statement even if it's not exactly what you said. To use an analogy. Let's say I were to visit a beautiful mansion on the beach for sale and and tell the owner that I want to buy the house for 50K. Though it would be technically correct to say that I want the house, after all I made an offer, in realistic terms I really don't. The owner would be within his rights to end negotiations because I have told him that I don't really want the house under any realistic scenario. Ergo I don't want the house.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 14:14:24 GMT -5
First off if by "falling into their lap" you mean that Drew signs for some unrealistically low price I sincerely doubt that's going to happen. Secondly how exactly is Middlebrooks going to develop sitting on a major league bench playing twice a week or in AAA facing Quad A pitchers for two years? He isn't. 27 year old backup 3B usually don't turn into regulars. To use your David Freese comparison, David Freese did just that. The real reason I bring up Freese is he's actually nothing like the player you thought he was. Freese gets on base. Freese's ascent was delayed by an organization that didn't believe in him and dumped him for very little and injuries which delayed his ascent by two years. Yes there are late bloomers even at 3B but quite often as with the case with Freese it involves an organizational change. I really don't believe that Middlebrooks will ever be a regular with the Red Sox if they put him on the bench or in AAA for two years.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 14:23:16 GMT -5
Let's think about this for a second. You are a team on a budget with an opening at 3B. Among the options is a player you believe has good talent but also had a horrible first half last year. If you've scouted him and you like him you might take a flier on him and make him your 3B. But are you going to give up a serious prospect or a reasonably priced major league piece? Hell no, especially if he's blocked at the major league level for two years.
The Red Sox are in a better position to take on the risk of putting Middlebrooks at 3B because it involves zero acquisition costs.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 14:24:09 GMT -5
First off if by "falling into their lap" you mean that Drew signs for some unrealistically low price I sincerely doubt that's going to happen. Secondly how exactly is Middlebrooks going to develop sitting on a major league bench playing twice a week or in AAA facing Quad A pitchers for two years? He isn't. 27 year old backup 3B usually don't turn into regulars. I heard the same things back when Beltre signed here. Players develop in a lot of different ways, that way included. When did Youk become a full time player/3b? As a 27 year old after riding the shuttle for a couple years, Unless, you meant players with a terrible approach at the plate don't develop like that...
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Post by elguapo on Dec 13, 2013 14:44:13 GMT -5
Among the options is a player you believe has good talent but also had a horrible first half last year. If you've scouted him and you like him you might take a flier on him and make him your 3B. But are you going to give up a serious prospect or a reasonably priced major league piece? Hell no,. Yes, I think it's very reasonable to trade a reasonably priced major league piece for a major league piece I like at minimum salary. Or to trade a good prospect, who has significant risk of never making it, for a young major league player I like who hasn't proven himself. I really can't imagine the objection to either scenario. add - further example - Mets are asking for Ty Thornburg for Ike Davis - not that they'll get him, but Ike was worse than Middlebrooks last season and has 2 fewer years of control.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 13, 2013 15:17:58 GMT -5
Beltre became a regular I believe at age 20. He performed better after leaving pitchers parks for hitters parks.
Using unusual examples doesn't make your point. Yes some players do develop later for various reasons, but most do not and it's unwise to develop a strategy based upon outlier examples. Besides, Youkilis only rode the shuttle because there were two signed players ahead of him. The Red Sox did not acquire another player to block him as you are proposing they do here.
Please you don't believe in the player so let's stop this fantasy scenario that somehow he's going to develop into a good player by sitting on his ass for two years. You don't sign a player six years older to block a 25 year old that you believe can be an average regular or better. It's not rational and no one does it.
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