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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2014 8:58:40 GMT -5
Is that just picking a date out of the sky or what? I think the Sox sign him even if it's in November. No that's the date after the All Star break. If the Sox don't sign him then, why would he not test free agency or sign in the exclusive period unless they blow him away. The message, which we hear from players all the time, would be, "I guess they didn't really want me." Also, when was the last time this ownership group signed any free agent not named Ortiz in the exclusive 10-day post WS signing period? Not saying firsts don't occur, but it's a near-zero probability. They re-signed Napoli, after a lot of deliberation while he was a free-agent. Why wouldn't Lester test free agency? Because he wants to be in Boston - which he has said repeatedly. And even if he tests it, I still bet he's back. I predict 4/$100 with a 5th year vesting option.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2014 9:01:10 GMT -5
It's more likely to be a vesting option than any kind of TJS option like Lackey got.
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Post by jmei on Jun 3, 2014 9:17:29 GMT -5
He had significant injury issues and hasn't improved in LA. I don't think you can blame his struggles on Boston, at least not conclusively. He wasn't injured when he first came to Boston. He just plain stunk and wasn't happy here. Too intense an atmosphere. Then the injuries came and he's never been the player he was in Tampa. Edgar Renteria was another guy that really wasn't made for Boston as it turned out. Injuries were a factor there, too as he had a bad back. I honestly think there's a pressure that comes from playing in Boston or New York, particularly if you've signed for the big money. That's why a Carl Pavano or an AJ Burnett doesn't do particularly well in New York but does better elsewhere. Your performance gets magnified as there's a lot more media following the Sox and fan interest is extremely rabid. Some players like to play out of the spotlight and some players enjoy the intensity and the spotlight. It's not going to turn a superstar into a mediocrity or a mediocrity into a superstar but I think it can influence performance. There is a mental aspect to the game. So, what, that's maybe a dozen players out of all the guys who have ever played in Boston/NY/LA/etc.? If the odds are so low, is this a risk that we should really be worrying about that much? Are you particularly worried about any of the players discussed above melting under the spotlight? I think the "you need special DNA to play in Boston" is generally an exaggerated talking head trope. Maybe there are a few situations where players had genuine adjustment issues (though I think some combination of injuries and regression and plain ol' bad luck can explain most of them), but I think you're exaggerating the degree to which it matters that Lester has already had success in Boston.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2014 9:25:14 GMT -5
It's more likely to be a vesting option than any kind of TJS option like Lackey got. I would prob do that, too, based on 170 innings pitched in each of years 4 & 5.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2014 9:33:44 GMT -5
He wasn't injured when he first came to Boston. He just plain stunk and wasn't happy here. Too intense an atmosphere. Then the injuries came and he's never been the player he was in Tampa. Edgar Renteria was another guy that really wasn't made for Boston as it turned out. Injuries were a factor there, too as he had a bad back. I honestly think there's a pressure that comes from playing in Boston or New York, particularly if you've signed for the big money. That's why a Carl Pavano or an AJ Burnett doesn't do particularly well in New York but does better elsewhere. Your performance gets magnified as there's a lot more media following the Sox and fan interest is extremely rabid. Some players like to play out of the spotlight and some players enjoy the intensity and the spotlight. It's not going to turn a superstar into a mediocrity or a mediocrity into a superstar but I think it can influence performance. There is a mental aspect to the game. So, what, that's maybe a dozen players out of all the guys who have ever played in Boston/NY/LA/etc.? If the odds are so low, is this a risk that we should really be worrying about that much? Are you particularly worried about any of the players discussed above melting under the spotlight? I think the "you need special DNA to play in Boston" is generally an exaggerated talking head trope. Maybe there are a few situations where players had genuine adjustment issues (though I think some combination of injuries and regression and plain ol' bad luck can explain most of them), but I think you're exaggerating the degree to which it matters that Lester has already had success in Boston. I think it's a pretty big risk whenever you're handing out big money to a guy who is looking to get big money. Does he become a tad bit more complacent? For me, I'm much more willing to go with what we know.
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Post by nexus on Jun 3, 2014 10:04:14 GMT -5
So, what, that's maybe a dozen players out of all the guys who have ever played in Boston/NY/LA/etc.? If the odds are so low, is this a risk that we should really be worrying about that much? Are you particularly worried about any of the players discussed above melting under the spotlight? I think the "you need special DNA to play in Boston" is generally an exaggerated talking head trope. Maybe there are a few situations where players had genuine adjustment issues (though I think some combination of injuries and regression and plain ol' bad luck can explain most of them), but I think you're exaggerating the degree to which it matters that Lester has already had success in Boston. I think it's a pretty big risk whenever you're handing out big money to a guy who is looking to get big money. Does he become a tad bit more complacent?For me, I'm much more willing to go with what we know. You mean like Josh Beckett? Sometimes going with what you know is the laziest, most unimaginative decision an org could make.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 3, 2014 10:10:03 GMT -5
No that's the date after the All Star break. If the Sox don't sign him then, why would he not test free agency or sign in the exclusive period unless they blow him away. The message, which we hear from players all the time, would be, "I guess they didn't really want me." Also, when was the last time this ownership group signed any free agent not named Ortiz in the exclusive 10-day post WS signing period? Not saying firsts don't occur, but it's a near-zero probability. They re-signed Napoli, after a lot of deliberation while he was a free-agent. Why wouldn't Lester test free agency? Because he wants to be in Boston - which he has said repeatedly. And even if he tests it, I still bet he's back. I predict 4/$100 with a 5th year vesting option. If the vesting option was for another $25mill....I might agree with this. However...I am going with 6/$126 will sign him for good. In the free market...he is worth 6/$150.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2014 10:14:04 GMT -5
I think it's a pretty big risk whenever you're handing out big money to a guy who is looking to get big money. Does he become a tad bit more complacent?For me, I'm much more willing to go with what we know. You mean like Josh Beckett? Sometimes going with what you know is the laziest, most unimaginative decision an org could make. Yeah, maybe they should have known Beckett a little better. I don't think Lester is automatically as lazy as Beckett though. He seems the opposite.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2014 10:57:04 GMT -5
You mean like Josh Beckett? Sometimes going with what you know is the laziest, most unimaginative decision an org could make. Yeah, maybe they should have known Beckett a little better. I don't think Lester is automatically as lazy as Beckett though. He seems the opposite. Lester does not have the injury history Beckett had. The Sox do have his medicals, and maybe there's something they've seen that's a ticking time-bomb. Again, I just hope these guys aren't believing their own BS about their prospects. If all the guys in AA/AAA hit their ceilings that would be awesome, but that has a near zero chance of happening. And for any that do,ceilings typically come well after the prospect's rookie year. Paying out for Tanaka, Darvish or Grienke could've mitigated this, but they didn't want to do that, either. Can't see them paying for Scherzer who's older than all those guys and who has never thrown a complete game. And I keep thinking, barring an injury, there will be one owner (or more) who decides Shields is worth 5 years.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 11, 2014 15:33:10 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2014 12:32:24 GMT -5
Lester talked about his desire to stay in Boston with Rob Bradford. Lester said that he wants to be one of those players who stays with the organization that drafted him for the rest of his career. He also mentioned his dislike of change, his relationships with front office members, and his family's ties to the area as reasons he wants to stay. The extent of the hometown discount he's willing to accept will depend on "what we think is a discount and still fair." I'm still convinced an extension gets done. Five years, low nine figures, with maybe a vesting option for a sixth year.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 16, 2014 12:43:05 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe they should have known Beckett a little better. I don't think Lester is automatically as lazy as Beckett though. He seems the opposite. Again, Beckett had surgery on a little known issue called Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Can we please stop with the "lazy" narrative.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 16, 2014 15:16:34 GMT -5
Lester talked about his desire to stay in Boston with Rob Bradford. Lester said that he wants to be one of those players who stays with the organization that drafted him for the rest of his career. He also mentioned his dislike of change, his relationships with front office members, and his family's ties to the area as reasons he wants to stay. The extent of the hometown discount he's willing to accept will depend on "what we think is a discount and still fair." I'm still convinced an extension gets done. Five years, low nine figures, with maybe a vesting option for a sixth year. The 5 year ship has sailed. He's now about half way through season and his numbers and health have held up. He'll get six on the open market no problem and likely 7. He's got huge leverage and would be a fool not to hold sox feet to the fire. De La Rosa has one good two bad starts and likely isn't a solution. Workman is a 4th or 5th. Webster busted last year. Barnes has got his hands full at AAA. Owens and Johnson are 2 years away likely. Rendaudo hasn't been called up. Sox could really be screwed if Lester bolts. I hope Lester punishes Red Sox for playing games with him and get 6x23
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2014 15:26:12 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe they should have known Beckett a little better. I don't think Lester is automatically as lazy as Beckett though. He seems the opposite. Again, Beckett had surgery on a little known issue called Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Can we please stop with the "lazy" narrative. Beckett pitched hurt and awful lot too - so not lazy and tried to gut it out.
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Post by trotsdirtyhat on Jun 16, 2014 15:36:04 GMT -5
oilcansman:
What? I more or less agree with what you're saying about Lester, but you can't say that De La Rosa is "unlikely" to be part of the solution after 3 starts. As for Webster, look at Halladay's 10.64 ERA 2000 season. I'm not trying to compare the two pitchers, but you should relax a bit with the rash judgments. He's still only 24 years old and making improvements, but you're talking about him like he's Craig Hansen. I also don't know what you're implying by stating that Ranaudo hasn't been called up. Where are you going to put him? It'd be nice to pretend that money and roster spots don't matter, but they're not going to sit Lester, Lackey, or (unfortunately) Peavy just because Ranaudo has a good ERA in AAA.
I know you're the captain of the "We don't have any good prospects" ship in the other thread, but this is getting kind of ridiculous. I'm also not sure why you'd want Lester to punish the Red Sox if you're a Red Sox. I want the Red Sox to re-sign Lester as much as the next person, but I'm not underestimating the complexity of contract negotiations. He may leave. It happens. He's a good guy and a good pitcher, but I'll get over it. Someone else suggested that you may be upset/impatient since the Red Sox are playing poorly and I'm thinking that may be correct. Are there any prospects that you are optimistic about?
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2014 18:02:11 GMT -5
After hearing and reading Lester's latest comments, it's pretty much impossible to think that Lester is going to hold out for the biggest deal he can get this offseason and incredibly evident that he is willing to take a substantial discount to stay in Boston. I mean, just look at some of these quotes: There's also a ton of other stuff about how much he loves Boston, how he wants his sons to experience Fenway, and how he doesn't like change. If the Red Sox offer him nine figures, I don't think he turns it down. And I think this front office is willing to go into the low-nine-figures for Lester, especially now that he's shown the improved ability to command his diminishing stuff over a somewhat sustained period of time. The front office almost certainly knows how much he wants to stay in Boston and so made a low-ball first offer, but it doesn't seem to have negatively affected negotiations one bit. I remain convinced that a deal gets done before the start of free agency.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2014 18:08:46 GMT -5
I think it depends when the Sox offer 9 figures. The sooner the better. If they wait until august he might as well test the market.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2014 18:31:57 GMT -5
Did you read the article? It's possible that much of it was bluster, but if Lester is to be taken at his word, he'd only want to test the market in order to leverage the best possible offer from the Red Sox.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 6:23:29 GMT -5
Why don't we just give Lester the Verlander extension (5y/$140m)? At least we'll have a very good chance of getting better value than the Tigers do...
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2014 6:38:53 GMT -5
Why don't we just give Lester the Verlander extension (5y/$140m)? At least we'll have a very good chance of getting better value than the Tigers do... A red flag contract for SP.. lost 3mph last 3 seasons and finding out that curve can be sat on without blazing speed. Verlander is going to have to make changes.. And quick.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 17, 2014 11:15:07 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe they should have known Beckett a little better. I don't think Lester is automatically as lazy as Beckett though. He seems the opposite. Again, Beckett had surgery on a little known issue called Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Can we please stop with the "lazy" narrative. Can we point out Beckett's disgusting gut hanging out during 2012 spring training?
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Post by raftsox on Jun 17, 2014 12:16:07 GMT -5
Again, Beckett had surgery on a little known issue called Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Can we please stop with the "lazy" narrative. Can we point out Beckett's disgusting gut hanging out during 2012 spring training? Sure, doesn't mean a whole lot though. Pitching is all about repeating a power movement; having a gut wouldn't preclude that from happening. I was unable to link to pictures of Highland Games athletes throwing hammers or cabers, or to Strongmen throwing kettlebells or kegs or even to shottputters throwing a shotput. The point being that athletes don't need to have visible abs to be successful despite our Abercrombie inspired perception of male physicality.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 17, 2014 12:28:18 GMT -5
Can we point out Beckett's disgusting gut hanging out during 2012 spring training? Sure, doesn't mean a whole lot though. Pitching is all about repeating a power movement; having a gut wouldn't preclude that from happening. I was unable to link to pictures of Highland Games athletes throwing hammers or cabers, or to Strongmen throwing kettlebells or kegs or even to shottputters throwing a shotput. The point being that athletes don't need to have visible abs to be successful despite our Abercrombie inspired perception of male physicality. I understand that, but it suddenly appeared that year.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 17, 2014 12:34:34 GMT -5
Did you read the article? It's possible that much of it was bluster, but if Lester is to be taken at his word, he'd only want to test the market in order to leverage the best possible offer from the Red Sox. I did read the article and I actually listened to his interview on weei. I'm hoping he gets resigned as well but im thinking logically it may be hard for him to leave money on the table.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 17, 2014 12:43:25 GMT -5
oilcansman: What? I more or less agree with what you're saying about Lester, but you can't say that De La Rosa is "unlikely" to be part of the solution after 3 starts. As for Webster, look at Halladay's 10.64 ERA 2000 season. I'm not trying to compare the two pitchers, but you should relax a bit with the rash judgments. He's still only 24 years old and making improvements, but you're talking about him like he's Craig Hansen. I also don't know what you're implying by stating that Ranaudo hasn't been called up. Where are you going to put him? It'd be nice to pretend that money and roster spots don't matter, but they're not going to sit Lester, Lackey, or (unfortunately) Peavy just because Ranaudo has a good ERA in AAA. I know you're the captain of the "We don't have any good prospects" ship in the other thread, but this is getting kind of ridiculous. I'm also not sure why you'd want Lester to punish the Red Sox if you're a Red Sox. I want the Red Sox to re-sign Lester as much as the next person, but I'm not underestimating the complexity of contract negotiations. He may leave. It happens. He's a good guy and a good pitcher, but I'll get over it. Someone else suggested that you may be upset/impatient since the Red Sox are playing poorly and I'm thinking that may be correct. Are there any prospects that you are optimistic about? I really don't like bad faith negotiating tactics and that appears to be what the Sox are doing. I negotiate for a living and I especially hate it when one side reaches out like Lester appears to have done and the other side uses it against them. My point is the Sox can't let Lester walk. There's no obvious replacement and the Sox are acting like there is. As for prospects l like, there are plenty. Johnson, Owens, Swihart, Marrero and Betts are going to help. I'm not a Coyle guy (too many strikeouts) I'm not crazy about the AAA crowd except for Betts. The rest are bottom of the rotation - marginal starter types. Randaudo is the only one at AAA other than Betts that's interesting. Sox can find journeyman players every off season that can do what rest can. I really liked Bradley but am stunned that people here can't see what's pretty obvious - he's a 4A offensive player. Rubby De La Rosa is a head case, just wait. The big problem is true help from the minors will not come until 2016. I hope they don't destroy Betts and rush him before he finds a position in the field that's both availablee and can be play well by him. Devers is far to young and can't be taken too seriously except for one thing. Yeah, he's hitting well but the key is he walks a lot and doesn't strike out much, which is atypical of prospects from the DR.
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