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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 12, 2014 19:15:39 GMT -5
I don't think even the Yankees will be able to afford both Lester and Scherzer. Not with Arod coming back on the books.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 12, 2014 20:48:21 GMT -5
nm
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 12, 2014 20:48:56 GMT -5
I'm assuming the Sox will budge big-time from that low-ball offer. If not they'll lose Lester. I guess they'll wind up around 5 years $110 million with an option year. It seems like Lester really does want to stay. Hope the Sox don't use that against him. I think they'll work it out in the end. I think the Red Sox need to make it work. He eats up innings and has stayed healthy which is no small thing. He's learning to pitch as opposed to relying on velocity which is an encouraging sign for his future.
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Post by jdb on Apr 12, 2014 20:54:00 GMT -5
[quote author=" Guidas" . [/quote]Financial flexibility for what? Who else is worth buying in FA market at a position of need? Sheilds will get almost as much as Lester per year. Masterson is a step down. And no way they outbid NYY in $$$ or years for Scherzer. There isn't an OF worth a damn in free agency, either unless you think Sizemore will stay healthy and take 2 years at $10M a year. Flexibility's nice but this team will have that next year even with a 4-5 yr $20M a year signing of Lester. [/quote] Sorry for not using italics. I agree with you.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 12, 2014 21:59:45 GMT -5
I am really mad at Ben. He will overpay for mediocre players to fill the void of good players. Even small market teams do their best to keep farm grown star players.
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Post by klostrophobic on Apr 12, 2014 22:26:40 GMT -5
Can you give some examples of mediocre players he's overpaid and some homegrown players he's let walk away?
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 12, 2014 22:49:54 GMT -5
I am really mad at Ben. He will overpay for mediocre players to fill the void of good players. Even small market teams do their best to keep farm grown star players. If you are going to make baseless accusations at least give examples Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 12, 2014 23:16:43 GMT -5
I just don't see Lester signing in the $100 - $110 mil range over 5 years. I think you guys are dreaming. We are probably looking more like a 5 year $118 mil or 6 year $136 mil deal. Knowing the Redsox they will do everything they can to get it to a 4 year type deal but if I'm Lester I'm going for 6.
It might even be higher. Which means he could well walk.
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Post by mwgray13 on Apr 13, 2014 11:38:10 GMT -5
5yr/100mil or 6yr/110mil or 5 yr with one team/vesting option at 120 mil. If he pitches well thru the first 4 yrs, rework the contract and lock him in as a Red Sox for life with 1 final contract. As for 4 yrs 70 mil, that's an embarrassing offer by the sox.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2014 14:32:17 GMT -5
Prediction: This will not get done. I don't think the Sox have re-signed a high profile free agent after they reached the Nov. "negotiation with anyone you like" free agent period since Varitek Mike Lowell. If they want you they lock you up before that rather than risk getting out bid.
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Post by ikonos on Apr 13, 2014 14:51:59 GMT -5
Prediction: This will not get done. I don't think the Sox have re-signed a high profile free agent after they reached the Nov. "negotiation with anyone you like" free agent period since Varitek Mike Lowell. If they want you they lock you up before that rather than risk getting out bid. Does Napoli count? May be my memory is not serving me right on this, but I think they might have done it once with Ortiz couple years back probably right before the FA period started?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 13, 2014 15:21:50 GMT -5
Prediction: This will not get done. I don't think the Sox have re-signed a high profile free agent after they reached the Nov. "negotiation with anyone you like" free agent period since Varitek Mike Lowell. If they want you they lock you up before that rather than risk getting out bid. Where do you think he ends up? Lets say NYY sign Scherzer. They probably can't afford both Lester and Scherzer right? Cubs? Rangers? Tigers?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2014 15:23:01 GMT -5
I guess you could count Napoli - my bad. Don't know if Papi ever reached the free for all period.
To the organization's credit, I think they've only guessed wrong on this once or twice since the new ownership took over (Damon, Beltre).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 13, 2014 15:23:34 GMT -5
Generally I agree that it may not get done but at what point do the Sox wake up and realize that they do not have much in starting pitching under control beyond 2015 and they possibly lose 2 important starters in 2014?
At some point a big market team like Boston probably needs to pay the piper. At least roll the dice for 1 or 2 top guys.
They are clearly fine right now, and have obviously spent moeny in the past, but the Lackey signing was needed and Peavy...etc. The problem is that the market for top starting pitching appears to be exploding.
"Appears" being the key word. Is it really? Are Tanaka and Kershaw aberations? Isn't Scherzer similar to Tanaka in value at this point? Why wouldn't these guys think they are $120 mil plus guys when the Yanks spent $175 mkil to get Tanaka? Scherzer probably thinks he's worth $175 mil and Lester thinks he's in the $145 mil range. Why wouldn't they think that after what they've seen this off season?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 13, 2014 15:24:19 GMT -5
The Cubs probably will be big buyers at some point. Why not?
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Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2014 15:37:45 GMT -5
Here's what happened: the Red Sox offered Lester basically Beckett's extension (4/$68m), which Beckett signed in 2010 while he was similarly entering his age-30 season and a year away from free agency. The market has certainly changed since then, but also keep in mind that Beckett was a way better pitcher in his age 27-29 years than Lester was. While this offer is certainly below-market, to characterize it as insultingly so is probably an exaggeration. Lester has been more above-average than elite for three years now, and he compares way more favorably to guys like Anibal Sanchez and Matt Garza than guys like Kershaw or Verlander or Greinke. The front office did what they did because unless they receive a substantial discount (and 5/$110 is not a substantial enough discount), it makes sense to wait until after the season (or at least the All-Star Break) to begin negotiating in earnest. That extra season (or few months) of evaluation matters a lot in determining how much money you want to commit to a pitcher entering his 30s who has a lot of mileage on his arm and whose velocity has declined five years in a row (Lester is averaging a career-low 91.6 mph on his fastball this year, by the way). Again: Lester is a good, but not great pitcher entering his 30s who is a year away from free agency and has openly stated multiple times that he's open to a hometown discount. There was no need for the Red Sox to lead with their best offer, and they'll still have plenty of opportunity to re-sign him if they want to. Moreover, to characterize him as a must-sign is pretty ridiculous. Yes, it's hard to replace a three/four win player, especially one like Lester who came up through the system and beat cancer and helped win two World Championships and so on. But this time last year, there were posters openly wondering whether picking up his option for 2014 was a guarantee, and the "is Lester an ace" debates are a meme for a reason. He's a good pitcher, but he's not good enough that I feel obligated to offer near-market rates a year in advance because I'm terrified that another team will overpay him. If he or his agents and another major-league team really think he deserves 6/$140, he's gone regardless of what the Red Sox offered, and I for one will be glad they let him go.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 13, 2014 16:20:15 GMT -5
Here's what happened: the Red Sox offered Lester basically Beckett's extension (4/$68m), which Beckett signed in 2010 while he was similarly entering his age-30 season and a year away from free agency. The market has certainly changed since then, but also keep in mind that Beckett was a way better pitcher in his age 27-29 years than Lester was. While this offer is certainly below-market, to characterize it as insultingly so is probably an exaggeration. Lester has been more above-average than elite for three years now, and he compares way more favorably to guys like Anibal Sanchez and Matt Garza than guys like Kershaw or Verlander or Greinke. The front office did what they did because unless they receive a substantial discount (and 5/$110 is not a substantial enough discount), it makes sense to wait until after the season (or at least the All-Star Break) to begin negotiating in earnest. That extra season (or few months) of evaluation matters a lot in determining how much money you want to commit to a pitcher entering his 30s who has a lot of mileage on his arm and whose velocity has declined five years in a row (Lester is averaging a career-low 91.6 mph on his fastball this year, by the way). Again: Lester is a good, but not great pitcher entering his 30s who is a year away from free agency and has openly stated multiple times that he's open to a hometown discount. There was no need for the Red Sox to lead with their best offer, and they'll still have plenty of opportunity to re-sign him if they want to. Moreover, to characterize him as a must-sign is pretty ridiculous. Yes, it's hard to replace a three/four win player, especially one like Lester who came up through the system and beat cancer and helped win two World Championships and so on. But this time last year, there were posters openly wondering whether picking up his option for 2014 was a guarantee, and the "is Lester an ace" debates are a meme for a reason. He's a good pitcher, but he's not good enough that I feel obligated to offer near-market rates a year in advance because I'm terrified that another team will overpay him. If he or his agents and another major-league team really think he deserves 6/$140, he's gone regardless of what the Red Sox offered, and I for one will be glad they let him go. You know that all makes more sense. I, for one, was getting a little miffed with Ben over that low-ball offer, but I guess I needed someone to remind me......that Jon Lester is not an ace. He has definitely been a solid everyday starter, but an ace? No he is not, and if he really wants to stay for his career with the Sox, he needs to follow through himself with his continued message of "giving a discount". Many of today's players want it all, but (most) always take the (biggest) money and run, I guess you can't blame them, but when you start talking about this kind of money, things like comfort and the organization they know sometimes get forgotten. And you know what, many of these folks wished they had considered the other things more heavily later after chasing the bucks. I want Lester to stay, but he is on the wrong side of 30 and I don't want them getting stuck on his last couple of years (like year 5 and 6).
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 13, 2014 18:34:56 GMT -5
I'm assuming the Sox will budge big-time from that low-ball offer. If not they'll lose Lester. I guess they'll wind up around 5 years $110 million with an option year. It seems like Lester really does want to stay. Hope the Sox don't use that against him. I think they'll work it out in the end. I think the Red Sox need to make it work. He eats up innings and has stayed healthy which is no small thing. He's learning to pitch as opposed to relying on velocity which is an encouraging sign for his future. I am hopeful this is what will happen, but the low-ball offer was pretty insulting. I don't see how the 5th or 6th years really factor in. For cryin' out loud, the Red Sox make money hand over fist. So he's making 20 million in the year 2019 or 2020, come on. Too many accountants in these situations, not enough ballplayers. It may be easy to replace him, but it will be more expensive (Scherzer et al.) An offer of 6/$120 is absolutely fair, in this market - for this pitcher.
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Post by tonyc on Apr 13, 2014 20:52:58 GMT -5
Jmei makes a good point, and to counter the Weei article implying they are foolishly missing an opportunity- This is not Lou Gorman, the last 3 Redsox GMs are quite bright and don't do anything without clear calculation. I wonder if another factor besides seeing how Lester does is seeing how their young pitching does as well over this year before doling out such large sums. Could they possibly be impressed by the early starts by Owens and Delarosa, knowing they have Workman, Webster and Barnes in the tank too and just want to see how they do? Granted the price goes up, but with more information they can still come back in the offseason- or all-star break to Lester.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2014 23:14:32 GMT -5
I'm assuming the Sox will budge big-time from that low-ball offer. If not they'll lose Lester. I guess they'll wind up around 5 years $110 million with an option year. It seems like Lester really does want to stay. Hope the Sox don't use that against him. I think they'll work it out in the end. I think the Red Sox need to make it work. He eats up innings and has stayed healthy which is no small thing. He's learning to pitch as opposed to relying on velocity which is an encouraging sign for his future. I am hopeful this is what will happen, but the low-ball offer was pretty insulting. I don't see how the 5th or 6th years really factor in. For cryin' out loud, the Red Sox make money hand over fist. So he's making 20 million in the year 2019 or 2020, come on. Too many accountants in these situations, not enough ballplayers. It may be easy to replace him, but it will be more expensive (Scherzer et al.) An offer of 6/$120 is absolutely fair, in this market - for this pitcher. I agree. I'm all for flexibility but with a lot of guys coming off the books and a lot of young players making their way into the majors I don't see why the Sox wouldn't sign Lester. Only Owens has that kind of potential and he'd be very hard pressed to accomplish what Lester has already accomplished and still has ahead of him as Lester isn't ancient, has excellent mechanics, and seems to be maturing as a pitcher rather than having to throw 96 MPH to win. Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, and Ranaudo don't project to give what Lester has already given them and can still give them. If they don't make it then the Sox would be paying a lot more with a lot more competition for top of the line free agent starters. If Lester wants $22 million/year they'd be paying a lot more for somebody like David Price or Max Scherzer and beyond them there's a scarcity of those types of guys. It just makes too much sense for the Sox to sign Lester especially with him willing to play ball with the Sox. It doesn't sound like Lester is insulted or frustrated so that bodes well for the Sox and Lester to reach some sort of common ground. Can't imagine that Cherington would let Lester slip thru his fingers. Like I said, I'm all for financial flexibility but I don't have much concern for the Sox profit margin. At the end of the day I think they'll figure it out with Lester.
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Post by mwgray13 on Apr 14, 2014 8:11:54 GMT -5
Sanchez and Garza are not on Lester's level they are beneath him. Sanchez has never pitched in the toughest division in baseball, and when Garza pitched in the AL east, he didn't pitch as well as Lester. Both Sanchez, and Garza have had more injuries problems in the past than Lester. Sanchez got 88mil/5ys, and Garza got 52mil/4yrs. I think Greinke, is a much closer comparison, especially when you consider Greinke accumulated his number in the weakest division in the AL, and then played in NL without doing much. The AL east is not fair to pitchers, they have the best hitter, and smallest ballparks. Fenway, Yankee Stadium, and Camden Yards are very hitter friendly parks. Cole Hamel got 144 mil, and Greinke got 147 mil, both over 6 yrs. In my opinion, Lester is on par or better than both of them. So again, 70mil was a joke, and the Sox need to get to the 100-120mil to really start the conversation.
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Post by jmei on Apr 14, 2014 9:32:33 GMT -5
Two things:
1) The alternative to signing Lester isn't the ownership just pocketing the money. The alternative is that they spend that money on other players. My contention is that if Lester wants six year and/or more than $20m a year, the Red Sox can probably spend it more efficiently elsewhere.
2) Lester just isn't in Greinke or Hamels' class, and the numbers show it. Here, I'm using ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, which are all ballpark- and league-adjusted (smaller numbers are better). For each player, the stats shown are the three years prior to their signing of their new contract.
Greinke, 6/$147m, signed at age 29: 604 IP, 95 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 78 xFIP- Hamels, 4/$144m, signed at age 28: 618.1 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP- Lester, ??/??, signed at age 30: 610.1 IP, 95 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 93 xFIP- Masterson, ??/??, signed at age 29: 615.1 IP: 99 ERA-, 92 FIP-, 92 xFIP- Sanchez, 5/$80m, signed at age 28: 587 IP, 92 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 92 xFIP- Garza, 4/$52m, signed at age 30: 457 IP, 90 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 89 xFIP- Wilson, 5/$77.5, signed at age 31: 324 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 93 xFIP-
Pitching in the AL East may be slightly more difficult, but when you league- and park-adjust the stats, Lester still comes out looking relatively poorly. Again: the Lester of the last three years is basically a slightly above-average innings eater. He is simply not in the class of guys like Greinke and Hamels. He's much more comparable to a more durable Garza or Sanchez. He's not been that much better than Justin Masterson, who will almost certainly be available on a 5/$85m-type contract.
Now, maybe there's something to be said about Lester's postseason heroics, and he might be one of those pitches who can really turn it on when it counts (or, from a less hero-worship perspective, his size and work ethic means he's one of those guys who won't wear down over the course of a long season and so he'll remain strong in October). That's why I'd be willing to go up to something like 5/$100 or so, maybe 5/$110 if things are really close and that's what it takes. But I'm not going more than 5 years, and I'm not going above $110.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2014 10:50:54 GMT -5
Two things: 1) The alternative to signing Lester isn't the ownership just pocketing the money. The alternative is that they spend that money on other players. My contention is that if Lester wants six year and/or more than $20m a year, the Red Sox can probably spend it more efficiently elsewhere. 2) Lester just isn't in Greinke or Hamels' class, and the numbers show it. Here, I'm using ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, which are all ballpark- and league-adjusted (smaller numbers are better). For each player, the stats shown are the three years prior to their signing of their new contract. Greinke, 6/$147m, signed at age 29: 604 IP, 95 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 78 xFIP- Hamels, 4/$144m, signed at age 28: 618.1 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP- Lester, ??/??, signed at age 30: 610.1 IP, 95 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 93 xFIP- Masterson, ??/??, signed at age 29: 615.1 IP: 99 ERA-, 92 FIP-, 92 xFIP- Sanchez, 5/$80m, signed at age 28: 587 IP, 92 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 92 xFIP- Garza, 4/$52m, signed at age 30: 457 IP, 90 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 89 xFIP- Wilson, 5/$77.5, signed at age 31: 324 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 93 xFIP- Pitching in the AL East may be slightly more difficult, but when you league- and park-adjust the stats, Lester still comes out looking relatively poorly. Again: the Lester of the last three years is basically a slightly above-average innings eater. He is simply not in the class of guys like Greinke and Hamels. He's much more comparable to a more durable Garza or Sanchez. He's not been that much better than Justin Masterson, who will almost certainly be available on a 5/$85m-type contract. Now, maybe there's something to be said about Lester's postseason heroics, and he might be one of those pitches who can really turn it on when it counts (or, from a less hero-worship perspective, his size and work ethic means he's one of those guys who won't wear down over the course of a long season and so he'll remain strong in October). That's why I'd be willing to go up to something like 5/$100 or so, maybe 5/$110 if things are really close and that's what it takes. But I'm not going more than 5 years, and I'm not going above $110. It's really difficult to peg Lester right now because his 2012 and 2013 were so different. Which season was the outlier? You can't just average them and say that's his starting point in a contract. After 2014, everyone should have a much better indication of which pitcher Lester is. Perhaps the Red Sox would be more comfortable seeing how he does in 2014 and giving him a bigger contract with more certainty than they are to give him a smaller contract with less certainty.
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Post by oilcansman on Apr 14, 2014 10:54:13 GMT -5
The biggest mistake the Lester is no Greinke crowd is making is the failure to realize that Lester is a number one pitcher in a championship team while Greinke is a number two on a division winner. I'd much rather have Lester on the sox than Greinke because Lester has done it. I'm stunned that people compare him to Sanchez and Garza. Do you think Sanchez or Garza could have what Lester did? Garza's a 2/3 on an excellent team and Sanchez is a 3.
The sox have clearly decided to let him go. They made a silly offer. In the past, they've made these types of low ball offers to players who left. The only team that can do what the Red Sox are doing is the Yankees, and only because they usually pay the max, although they botched the Cano negotiations. There's no reason for Lester to sign with the Sox as free agency approaches. The market always goes up. Lester is going to MFY or the Cubs.
Since Lackey won't play for $500k, he's an excellent trade candidate. Next year the rotation will likely be buccholz, ___________ (free agent), ____________ rookie pitcher, ______________ rookie pitcher, Doubront or Veteran bottom of rotation. Could be interesting to watch but certainly not a contender. My guess is the Sox are looking to turn over the pitching staff. The key question: are the minor league pitchers up to it. Owens likely is but the other probably aren't.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2014 11:00:01 GMT -5
The biggest mistake the Lester is no Greinke crowd is making is the failure to realize that Lester is a number one pitcher in a championship team while Greinke is a number two on a division winner. I'd much rather have Lester on the sox than Greinke because Lester has done it. I'm stunned that people compare him to Sanchez and Garza. Do you think Sanchez or Garza could have what Lester did? Garza's a 2/3 on an excellent team and Sanchez is a 3. The sox have clearly decided to let him go. They made a silly offer. In the past, they've made these types of low ball offers to players who left. The only team that can do what the Red Sox are doing is the Yankees, and only because they usually pay the max, although they botched the Cano negotiations. There's no reason for Lester to sign with the Sox as free agency approaches. The market always goes up. Lester is going to MFY or the Cubs. Since Lackey won't play for $500k, he's an excellent trade candidate. Next year the rotation will likely be buccholz, ___________ (free agent), ____________ rookie pitcher, ______________ rookie pitcher, Doubront or Veteran bottom of rotation. Could be interesting to watch but certainly not a contender. My guess is the Sox are looking to turn over the pitching staff. The key question: are the minor league pitchers up to it. Owens likely is but the other probably aren't. There are so many assumptions here it's ridiculous. What exactly has Lester done? He was lucky enough to not have a bunch of pop fly and soft ground ball singles make him lose a bunch of playoff games? All you can do is look at long term stats and there are plenty of guys who comp to Lester. The only question is whether Lester is as good as he was in 2013 or bad as he was in 2012 and which direction is he trending towards.
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