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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 11:31:29 GMT -5
'Minor details' details...
Callis has nine sox in the top 100, but he expects 10 (including Ball). My guesses. 1 Xander (top 5) 2 Bradley(top 15) 3 Owens (top 20) 4 Checchini (top 30) 5 Webster (top 40) 6 Swihart (top 60) 7 Betts (top 80) 8 Ranaudo (top 50) 9 Barnes (top 90) 10 Ball (top 100)
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 19, 2013 11:33:17 GMT -5
'Minor details' details... Callis has nine sox in the top 100, but he expects 10 (including Ball). My guesses. 1 Xander (top 5) 2 Bradley(top 15) 3 Owens (top 20) 4 Checchini (top 30) 5 Webster (top 40) 6 Swihart (top 60) 7 Betts (top 80) 8 Ranaudo (top 50) 9 Barnes (top 90) 10 Ball (top 100) This could've been mine top 10 list. Probably would switch Swihart and Webster though.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 19, 2013 11:44:43 GMT -5
I think that's too bullish on Bradley, Owens, Cecchini, Webster and Ranaudo.
Xander - top 3 Bradley - 25 to 35 Owens - 50 to 60 Cecchini - 40 to 55 Wesbter - 50 to 60 Ranaudo - 85 to 100
Swihart, I'd lean towards being in the 60's, not top 60.
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Post by hairps on Dec 19, 2013 11:46:26 GMT -5
Haha. I don't have any insight to share these days - just here to absorb. I've been reading along on and off for years and figured it was about time I get a user name again. Great to see the site and the prospects it follows improving every year. Sorry for the disruption. Back to your normal programming. You magnificent bastard! Need to get the band back together! Where's Tony Granadillo these days? Scaffolds? Oh well, we'll always have the memories of Picasso's temple's Blue Gutless period. As the man says, sorry for the disruption. Back to your normal programming.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 19, 2013 11:53:32 GMT -5
That Callis/Speier podcast was great and very exciting to hear about all the good prospects the Sox have, for sure, but the one discordant note was when Callis made the point that this is similar to the offseason after the 2007 World Series: Sox coming off a WS win, #2 farm system in the game according to BA, looked like the "player development machine" was kicking into high gear and a string of championships would follow. But, alas, while he didn't make the point, it struck me that the next few years didn't turn out as well as I would've hoped back then. Granted, I would make an argument that the Sox system is qualitatively better now than it was then, but still, it's the always-appropriate cautionary tale that you just never know. Yeah, I caught that too, and it's definitely sobering. I agree that the system appears to better now than it was then (even without hindsight), but I think the biggest thing to note, is that the trouble in subsequent years don't seem to have been due to prospects not panning out; the SP top 10 in April of '08 was: Buchholz Ellsbury Masterson Anderson Lowrie Bowden Hagadone Kalish Tejeda Middlebrooks I think the problem was more about the moves made to fill in around the prospects, injuries, and a little bit of crap luck. Plus, some of those prospects were traded away for short term benefit (not that I wouldn't do the VMart trade again, I absolutely would, but it definitely depleted the top of our system some at the time). And actually, our top two were a huge part of this year's World Series, so it kinda did happen, just with some less than great years in between.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 19, 2013 12:01:51 GMT -5
I think that's too bullish on Bradley, Owens, Cecchini, Webster and Ranaudo. Xander - top 3 Bradley - 25 to 35 Owens - 50 to 60 Cecchini - 40 to 55 Wesbter - 50 to 60 Ranaudo - 85 to 100 Swihart, I'd lean towards being in the 60's, not top 60. For what it's worth, Callis had Cecchini, Webster, Swihart, and Betts all between 47 and 59 on his personal list (in that order).
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 19, 2013 12:22:27 GMT -5
I think that's too bullish on Bradley, Owens, Cecchini, Webster and Ranaudo. Xander - top 3 Bradley - 25 to 35 Owens - 50 to 60 Cecchini - 40 to 55 Wesbter - 50 to 60 Ranaudo - 85 to 100 Swihart, I'd lean towards being in the 60's, not top 60. For what it's worth, Callis had Cecchini, Webster, Swihart, and Betts all between 47 and 59 on his personal list (in that order). What list are we talking about? Is there a link?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2013 12:28:11 GMT -5
Yes the pod cast link a page or two back
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2013 12:29:25 GMT -5
Btw I miss that Pujols poster and the Greek guy - I think both were banned for their crap tho
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 12:31:14 GMT -5
Just finished the podcast and here are my scribbles some repetitive from the notes above for those of you who don't podcast and still very well may have walkman's, if not Pioneer Super tuner's rocking Jensen tri axles...
'Xander is a top five player' future superstar 'Owens is the most unhittable left hander in the minors'. 'JBJ gold glove, high obp, 15 to 20hr, better defender, and ultimately better than Ellsbury' 'Cecchini(47) – average d, average runner, high obp, big, strong, power to come, magic barrel 'Webster'(50?) – ‘even at his worst in the majors, still missed bats’. Unpredictable Front line starter 'Swihart'(52?) - This is what Buster Posey looked like. The bats there, arms good , extremely athletic. Easy to dream on kids 'Betts'(53) – best set of tools at 2nd base. Bat speed, double digit pop, easy plus runner, can play three infield positions. 400 obp, 30 steals, and double digit homers (Betts, Buxton, Springer) (Betts is the only one to walk 25 times more than he struck out). (Workman not eligible) Barnes(good health, struck out 135, strong swing and miss, needs improved command, ok BB (like Whacka)(expert FB manipulation), Renaudo (nice year, comeback, close to Barnes, maybe curve is not the best bb as it is tougher on the same side) Ball(6’6” 92/94 change and curve + because he was two way, shows physical tools to improve, very high ceiling) Marrerro last year top ten (future every day ss, yet in teens for sox) Margot (first guy since Xander on list before playing here) (Five tools, CF +, stolen bases Devers(special bat, only played instructs, yet top 30, impressive power) Drops (Vis), Coyle (31) (plate discipline, moved the wrong way) AA (Betts, Marrerro, Coyle all at Portland?) Only two 2013 draftees in top 30 (Stank, Ball)
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Post by mainesox on Dec 19, 2013 12:36:33 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Callis had Cecchini, Webster, Swihart, and Betts all between 47 and 59 on his personal list (in that order). What list are we talking about? Is there a link? There's no hard copy of a list, he talked about it with Speier on Speier's podcast.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 19, 2013 13:24:51 GMT -5
In general, compared to my expectations, they were higher JBJ, lower on Cecchini, higher on Barnes, much higher on Betts, and they loved Swihart, which I pretty much expected. The strength of the endorsement of JBJ was surprising to me; I'm usually a homer on prospects (and I'm a JBJ fan, don't get me wrong), but I'm just a little more reserved about his near-term prospects than they seemed to be.
But, it seems clear from their discussion that there are 7 locks for the top 100 (Xander->Betts on Speier's top 10), then some order of likelihood for Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, and Ball to be on there, too. So, basically, saying Badler's right that 11 are in the mix, and we can reasonably expect at least 7 with a real possibility of 9 or 10 on BA's top 100. I think at least two of those pitchers make it, now that I'm really looking at it. Callis had 9, he thought, and he didn't include Workman since he wasn't eligible by mlb.com guidelines.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 13:39:45 GMT -5
So here is the big question...Will the sox be ranked as the number one org?
The depth is astounding. And the Ceiling for the top guys is off the charts.
I think based on the recent information they will be ranked first by mlb.com and BA.
I actually hope they are not: I'm more of a walk soft big stick type.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 19, 2013 13:48:08 GMT -5
In general, compared to my expectations, they were higher JBJ, lower on Cecchini, higher on Barnes, much higher on Betts, and they loved Swihart, which I pretty much expected. The strength of the endorsement of JBJ was surprising to me; I'm usually a homer on prospects (and I'm a JBJ fan, don't get me wrong), but I'm just a little more reserved about his near-term prospects than they seemed to be. But, it seems clear from their discussion that there are 7 locks for the top 100 (Xander->Betts on Speier's top 10), then some order of likelihood for Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, and Ball to be on there, too. So, basically, saying Badler's right that 11 are in the mix, and we can reasonably expect at least 7 with a real possibility of 9 or 10 on BA's top 100. I think at least two of those pitchers make it, now that I'm really looking at it. Callis had 9, he thought, and he didn't include Workman since he wasn't eligible by mlb.com guidelines. Callis was also quite strong on Vazquez, as others have mentioned. He feels he's one of the more underrated catching prospects in the minor leagues.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 19, 2013 13:50:08 GMT -5
So here is the big question...Will the sox be ranked as the number one org? The depth is astounding. And the Ceiling for the top guys is off the charts. I think based on the recent information they will be ranked first by mlb.com and BA. I actually hope they are not: I'm more of a walk soft big stick type. I think Minnesota's system is the biggest competition. They have two potential superstars (Buxton and Sano) to our one (Bogaerts), but I think we have a slight edge in pitching (Owens, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, & Workman vs. Kohl Stewart, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios, Lewis Thorpe, & Trevor May), and general depth. I'm sure the Cubs will get some love based on the ridiculous power and offensive talent at the top of their system (Bryant, Baez, Soler, Almora, and Vogelbach), but their pitching leaves a lot to be desired.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2013 14:16:07 GMT -5
Just finished the podcast and here are my scribbles some repetitive from the notes above for those of you who don't podcast and still very well may have walkman's, if not Pioneer Super tuner's rocking Jensen tri axles... 'Xander is a top five player' future superstar 'Owens is the most unhittable left hander in the minors'. 'JBJ gold glove, high obp, 15 to 20hr, better defender, and ultimately better than Ellsbury' I haven't made it through the entire pod cast yet so I cut off here, but I think you're slightly misrepresenting what they said for a couple of these guys here. You're quote made it sound like these were strong projections for these guys. Owens they said you could refer to him as the most unhittable left hander it he minors. This wasn't said with a "this guy is unstoppable so baseball better watch out" tone - it was much more subdued" With Bradley, I didn't get the feeling that they were projecting him to be better than Ellsbury. They were more countering people's hesitations with his struggles last year by saying he should be a better defender and have a high obp. not saying you're trying to over-exaggerate,
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Post by jmei on Dec 19, 2013 14:16:11 GMT -5
God, I loved the Barnes/Wacha comp. Guys who can gets swings-and-misses with the fastball in the zone make me all tingly inside.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 14:16:34 GMT -5
Sounds like we should trade some mlb ready pitching for some of that Cubby power.
Anyone know who is running that franchise?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2013 14:21:20 GMT -5
God, I loved the Barnes/Wacha comp. Guys who can gets swings-and-misses with the fastball in the zone make me all tingly inside. Agreed. That's why I've had Barnes higher than the rest of them on my personal list.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 14:30:46 GMT -5
Just finished the podcast and here are my scribbles some repetitive from the notes above for those of you who don't podcast and still very well may have walkman's, if not Pioneer Super tuner's rocking Jensen tri axles... 'Xander is a top five player' future superstar 'Owens is the most unhittable left hander in the minors'. 'JBJ gold glove, high obp, 15 to 20hr, better defender, and ultimately better than Ellsbury' I haven't made it through the entire pod cast yet so I cut off here, but I think you're slightly misrepresenting what they said for a couple of these guys here. You're quote made it sound like these were strong projections for these guys. Owens they said you could refer to him as the most unhittable left hander it he minors. This wasn't said with a "this guy is unstoppable so baseball better watch out" tone - it was much more subdued" With Bradley, I didn't get the feeling that they were projecting him to be better than Ellsbury. They were more countering people's hesitations with his struggles last year by saying he should be a better defender and have a high obp. not saying you're trying to over-exaggerate, audio.weei.com/a/85203831/minor-details-ep-72-baseball-america-s-red-sox-top-10-with-alex-speier-and-jim-callis.htm#q=podcasthere at the 20 minute mark. “Ceiling... I actually think …he is a better defender right now…in long run higher OBP, more pop than Jacaby, in the long run and I know this sounds crazy and it is not a lock, I think he can be a better player than Jacoby
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Dec 19, 2013 14:34:22 GMT -5
I think that the most amazing part of this list is that Deven Marrero is projected to be an average, every day Major League shortstop and he's not even in the Top 10. How many organizations (or the Red Sox for a number of years) would love to have a player who projects to be an average, every day Major League shortstop in their Top 5? Or even Top Prospect?
Or how about Sean Coyle at #31? Athletic infielder with power (16 HR in 60 games last season). I understand the concerns about his strike-zone discipline and that he's missed time with injuries the past two years, but he's a player with a ton of upside who's almost an afterthought in this system right now.
The depth of this system is amazing.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2013 18:29:58 GMT -5
I haven't made it through the entire pod cast yet so I cut off here, but I think you're slightly misrepresenting what they said for a couple of these guys here. You're quote made it sound like these were strong projections for these guys. Owens they said you could refer to him as the most unhittable left hander it he minors. This wasn't said with a "this guy is unstoppable so baseball better watch out" tone - it was much more subdued" With Bradley, I didn't get the feeling that they were projecting him to be better than Ellsbury. They were more countering people's hesitations with his struggles last year by saying he should be a better defender and have a high obp. not saying you're trying to over-exaggerate, audio.weei.com/a/85203831/minor-details-ep-72-baseball-america-s-red-sox-top-10-with-alex-speier-and-jim-callis.htm#q=podcasthere at the 20 minute mark. “Ceiling... I actually think …he is a better defender right now…in long run higher OBP, more pop than Jacaby, in the long run and I know this sounds crazy and it is not a lock, I think he can be a better player than Jacoby Exactly, but that's not how I took your shorthand summary. "Ultimately better" vs "can be a better player" are subtle but distinctly different. Like I said, I don't think you were trying to over-exaggerate, but a lot of people aren't listening to it and didn't want them to think they are predicting JBjr to be better then Els. It's possible. It's not out of the realm of possibility that JBjr hits .300/.385/.435... Is it likely? I doubt it, but he could do it. If so, and he only stoke about 15 bases, is that a better player then Jacoby considering the superior D? I think for sure.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 19:53:49 GMT -5
Maybe someone with more history and time avail could execute the following query What are the typical number of respects added to the top 30 or 50 list I would guess it is higher than the two Alex added
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2013 21:21:43 GMT -5
Maybe someone with more history and time avail could execute the following query What are the typical number of respects added to the top 30 or 50 list I would guess it is higher than the two Alex added I'm not sure what the question is ("respects"?), but if you're asking what the average number of players a team has in the top 30 or top 50, that's super easy. It's 1 player in the top 30 and 1.67 in the top 50.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 19, 2013 21:24:08 GMT -5
I think he's asking how many prospects from the most recent draft usually appear in the teams top 30 prospects.
I think 2-3 is about right off the top of my head.
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