Dan Butler, the next Daniel Nava?

I'd say he's more likely the next AAAA catcher that winds up with a couple hundred major league games as a backup for some team someday. But probably not for us.

I'm thinking he's the next Mark Wagner, but I hope I'm wrong.

Kevin Cash is actually a pretty good comp for Butler. Both were college catchers primarily known for their defensive acumen who went undrafted (think about how rare this is in a sport with 40 draft rounds). Neither wowed the scouts much at the plate, but both put together pretty good statistical performances as they slowly made their way up the ladder. Cash, for instance, hit .247/.339/.445/.785 in 518 PAs as a 24-year-old in AA/AAA in 2002 and .270/.331/.442/.772 in 360 PAs as a 25-year-old in AAA in 2003 before getting called up to the majors. For comparison's sake, Butler is coming off a .247/.342/.403/.746 season as a 25-year-old in AA/AAA in 2012 and a .262/.350/.479/.829 season as a 26-year-old in AAA in 2013.

Cash, of course, was pretty terrible in the majors (career .183/.248/.278), and he could never make enough good contact to stick for any stretch of time (career 27.3% K). I'm slightly more optimistic with Butler, but not that much more so (I think he can be a backup guy, but is more likely an up-and-down type). Remember, like Cash, Butler has always been old for his league (or, at the very least, he's never been age-advanced), so you have to take his offensive stats with a grain of salt. Neither has ever flashed noteworthy tools, and Butler's scouting report is pretty bland. It's tough to rely much on MLE-type projections for a 26-year-old in AAA with mediocre scouting reports.

In particular, I've anecdotally noticed that a lot of catchers with this profile see a pretty big jump in their strikeout rate in the majors. For instance, Cash's strikeout rate of 22.4% in 2002/03 jumped to 27.3% in the majors. Tim Federowicz's 20.3% career AAA strikeout rate jumped to 32.1% in the majors (albeit in only 193 PAs). That's the big trap I see with Butler-- can his average bat speed catch up to enough big-league-caliber fastballs to keep his strikeouts in check at the big league level? I'm not terribly optimistic.

As you alluded to, the offensive bar at catcher is set really low, and Butler just needs to stay afloat at the plate to have the chance to stick as a backup type. His defensive reputation has always been positive, and he has some of the peripheral skills (a little patience and pop) to hold his own offensively if he can hit for average at the major league level. But his bat is still pretty fringy, and he's old enough that he's not really a prospect with much of a ceiling. He'll at a shot at the major leagues, and with two options left, he's the kind of up-and-down third catcher that front offices like to have in their organization to protect against injuries. It looks for now like he'll stay around the organization, but I'm glad he's more of a depth option than a core guy. I remember some posters arguing that he should be the de facto starting option in 2014, and I'm glad the front office decided not to go in that direction.

I don't know about you guys, but I think that Alex Hassan is the most likely candidate for the Daniel Nava award. This award can go out to the guy who didn't have the best tools except the one that matters the most... the ability to hit. I think Hassan is making a good case to be the replacement for Gomes after next year. He has consistently shown an ability to get on base at all levels. I remember some discussions about why the Sox protected him before last year's rule 5 draft around here and there was some debate on it. I think he is the prototype of a player that they look for in a supporting role that can hit while cost controlled on a budget for many years to come.