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Post by soxcentral on Jan 6, 2014 8:23:58 GMT -5
With the Sox rumored interest in Chris Denorfia, I wonder if there isn't a way to get Chase Headley at the same time?
Denorfia is an ideal fit to the OF mix, a strong back up to all 3 positions and would be an asset if he accumulated 400+ AB's. He's also comfortable hitting towards the top of the lineup.
Headley is a guy coming off injury but finished strong in September, plus he's headed to free agency.
Would this be a fair return for San Diego?
WMB - to replace Headley in 2014 and long-term
Workman - could add to their rotation or bullpen, Padres could use another arm in either (who couldn't?)
Peavy - returns home and balances out the salary of Denorfia ($2M) and Headley (made $8.6M last year). Throw in cash if the salary switch does not balance out.
Denorfia gives us great depth across the OF. Headley deepens our lineup this year, and ideally we sign him to an extension and eventually move him to 1B if/when Xander moves off SS.
San Diego gets a ML ready replacement at 3B, a solid ML ready power arm, plus a veteran pitcher to deepen their rotation as they believe they can contend this year.
We'd also have to move one of Gomes/Carp/Nava to make it fit on our 25 man, either as part of this package or in a separate deal.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 6, 2014 10:09:42 GMT -5
I don't think that even comes close to enticing San Diego.
Edit: Think of it this way, if Headley was on your team, would you trade him for an all power 3B who has some (limited) potential, but was so bad he had to be sent down to AAA last year, a young back of the rotation starter/possible reliever, and an aging, overpaid, injury prone starter who has pitched like a #5 starter three of the past four years?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 6, 2014 10:33:37 GMT -5
I don't think that even comes close to enticing San Diego. Edit: Think of it this way, if Headley was on your team, would you trade him for an all power 3B who has some (limited) potential, but was so bad he had to be sent down to AAA last year, a young back of the rotation starter/possible reliever, and an aging, overpaid, injury prone starter who has pitched like a #5 starter three of the past four years? I think that is an overly pessimistic way of looking at it. In fact, I don't think the Red Sox would come close to considering a deal like that. Why would the Red Sox trade: A starter with one year of control who projects to be worth 2.5 fWAR A third baseman with 4 years of control would projects to be worth 2.3 fWAR and has upside A borderline top 100 pitching prospect with 6 years of control who projects to be worth .9 fWAR as a reliever this year. For A third baseman that will be a free agent after this year that projects to 3.5 fWAR A reserve outfielder that will be a free agent after this year that projects to 1.1 fWAR. So the Red Sox would be giving up 1.1 fWAR this year PLUS 8 additional years of Middlebrooks/Workman. That doesn't make sense to me. I actually think a package of Middlebrooks and a couple of mid-level prospects (ranked in the 12 to 25 range) is a more reasonable framework for a deal like this. |
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Post by mainesox on Jan 6, 2014 10:37:29 GMT -5
I don't think that even comes close to enticing San Diego. Edit: Think of it this way, if Headley was on your team, would you trade him for an all power 3B who has some (limited) potential, but was so bad he had to be sent down to AAA last year, a young back of the rotation starter/possible reliever, and an aging, overpaid, injury prone starter who has pitched like a #5 starter three of the past four years? I think that is an overly pessimistic way of looking at it. In fact, I don't think the Red Sox would come close to considering a deal like that. Why would the Red Sox trade: A starter with one year of control who projects to be worth 2.5 fWAR A third baseman with 4 years of control would projects to be worth 2.3 fWAR and has upside A borderline top 100 pitching prospect with 6 years of control who projects to be worth .9 fWAR as a reliever this year. For A third baseman that will be a free agent after this year that projects to 3.5 fWAR A reserve outfielder that will be a free agent after this year that projects to 1.1 fWAR. So the Red Sox would be giving up 1.1 fWAR this year PLUS 8 additional years of Middlebrooks/Workman. That doesn't make sense to me. I actually think a package of Middlebrooks and a couple of mid-level prospects (ranked in the 12 to 25 range) is a more reasonable framework for a deal like this. Major league baseball teams don't look at Oliver projections before making trades. Middlebrooks doesn't have anywhere near that kind of value. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 6, 2014 11:33:45 GMT -5
1. That's not Oliver.
2. I'm not a huge WMB fan, but I would guess there are many GMs that do value him like that. It is more than reasonable to project him to 2 WAR (as many on this board do).
The additional years of control are huge.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jan 6, 2014 12:22:57 GMT -5
If Middlebrooks puts up 2 more years equal to the average of his last two years, he is basically Trumbo playing a decent 3B.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 6, 2014 12:40:05 GMT -5
Pretty interesting feedback, thanks guys.
I am not as high on either WMB or Workman and chose them as sell-high candidates...with the understanding WMB is not exactly coming off a career year but GM's can still dream on what he could be.
Peavy went in to balance the salaries, and to entice the Padres from a marketing perspective.
Really the deal makes the most sense if Headley is signed to an extension before completing the trade, as it would provide depth in two areas our system will not be providing in the near future.
EDIT: Didn't realize Denorfia was also a free agent after this year, not sure I'd give up Workman unless this can net us more depth beyond 2014.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 6, 2014 12:59:53 GMT -5
If Middlebrooks puts up 2 more years equal to the average of his last two years, he is basically Trumbo playing a decent 3B. We're not talking about Middlebrooks after two theoretical good years though, we're talking about Middlebrooks coming off of a disaster of a season. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2014 13:57:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't make that deal with San Diego. Headley wasn't exactly stellar last year either. He's going to be an free agent pretty soon. Denorfia is a good player but would probably be a bench player. The Sox would lose either Gomes or Carp's spot on the roster most likely.
I doubt the upgrade from Headley and Denorfia over WMB and say Gomes would be worth it. The Sox would be losing a lot of viable rotation depth as Peavy would be replaced by Dempster which would be a downgrade. Peavy is better than Dempster. I think way too much weight was given to his last two starts. He's a decent pitcher. Dempster, like Peavy, gives up his HRs, but he also walks a ton of batters. They're not equal talents. Peavy is a useful pitcher. Workman is a useful pitcher who can be an asset out of the pen or the rotation.'
At some point the Sox have to live with the growing pains of their young players at that includes WMB. I'd rather give him a chance and see if he can be Butch Hobson circa 1977 - 1979 then have one year of Headley. I like Denorfia, but I'd rather give Bradley a full shot in CF. He doesn't have major platoons splits, so that would put Denorfia in Gomes' place, and I don't think that Denorfia is huge enough a step up to lose a valuable pitcher and two cost controlled assets. If they need a RH bat in LF who can also play 1b, I'd sooner take my chances with Alex Hassan. He won't cost you anything.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2014 19:45:02 GMT -5
If Middlebrooks puts up 2 more years equal to the average of his last two years, he is basically Trumbo playing a decent 3B. We're not talking about Middlebrooks after two theoretical good years though, we're talking about Middlebrooks coming off of a disaster of a season. Headley might be the most over-rated player in the game. If I were San Diego, and I could get WMB plus, Workman and Peavy for Headley and a 4th outfielder, I'd be all over it. |
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Post by mainesox on Jan 6, 2014 20:01:19 GMT -5
We're not talking about Middlebrooks after two theoretical good years though, we're talking about Middlebrooks coming off of a disaster of a season. Headley might be the most over-rated player in the game. If I were San Diego, and I could get WMB plus, Workman and Peavy for Headley and a 4th outfielder, I'd be all over it. Headley is pretty close to what we're all hoping Cecchini can become plus much better defense. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 6, 2014 20:38:50 GMT -5
Headley might be the most over-rated player in the game. If I were San Diego, and I could get WMB plus, Workman and Peavy for Headley and a 4th outfielder, I'd be all over it. Headley is pretty close to what we're all hoping Cecchini can become plus much better defense. He's only had one year of elite performance and is just one (semi-expensive) year away from free agency. I'm pretty low on Middlebrooks, but it's a question of years of team control. Even if Will is a far inferior player, he comes with three extra years, and he's established enough that he's not really a high-risk prospect. The same would be true of swapping Denorfia for Middlebrooks. As such, I think the proposed deal probably slightly favors San Diego (though they would not be at all interested in Peavy, at least without significant money coming to them as well). |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 7, 2014 11:59:52 GMT -5
Headley might be the most over-rated player in the game. If I were San Diego, and I could get WMB plus, Workman and Peavy for Headley and a 4th outfielder, I'd be all over it. Headley is pretty close to what we're all hoping Cecchini can become plus much better defense. This all depends on who you think Headley is... Is he the 2011/2012 guy or the guy he's been the rest of his career? He has a career .350 OBP right now, but that's pulled up by the 1 and 2/3s years (injury shortened 2011) where is was .375. I think we all hope Cecchini to have a better OBP than that. If GC is to reach his potential it will be better than that. If he doesn't then, he's not the players we're hoping he is. |
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