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Jan 2014-June 2015 International Signings
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Post by polarbear91 on May 20, 2014 14:19:32 GMT -5
As much as baseball has a problem at the ML level with speed of game, etc. the real issue is the speed of the game and time at the kid's levels. I coached kids, as many of you I'm sure have, from 5 years old up until High School. I can say, right now, the sport has a hard time keeping kids' attention. In the northeast, when the season starts out cold and dreary, it sometimes takes 3+ hours to finish a game. A lot of standing around for the kids. Sports like lacrosse, have games that last an hour, everyone is moving, running, hitting, and then go home. That is what baseball is competing against. I could care less that a major league game sometimes takes 4 hours. The war is being lost on the fields with the grade school kids. This is where the changes have to come or the fan base and talent pool will be quickly hollowed out and collapse. I'm sure if we had to do it over again, my son would choose lacrosse over baseball if given the choice. He stopped playing baseball this year (Jr. in HS) because it no longer appealed to him and now concentrates on football, which he will play in college.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 9:57:36 GMT -5
Crazy Carbonell workout video:
Impressions:
Wheels. Quiet swing. Action figure body. Can't tell about the arm but reports say he has above ave arm. Def has big BP power. Who knows vs. live pitching?
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2014 9:59:51 GMT -5
Crazy Carbonell workout video: Impressions: Wheels. Quiet swing. Action figure body. Can't tell about the arm but reports say he has above ave arm. Def has big BP power. Who knows vs. live pitching? I'm pretty sure this is a Hanes commercial.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 21, 2014 10:03:41 GMT -5
I can't buy into Carbonell unless it's 6 years at $25 mil or so at most. He's toolsy but he hasn't proven anything yet. Now when this guy becomes available, I'm in ( Despaigne ): www.havanatimes.org/?p=103785
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 10:03:54 GMT -5
One more Carbonell Video from some exhibition. Dude is definitely jacked. Short swing with a little hitch (though not the death hitch that has kept 5 tool phenom Bo Gentry from the majors):
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 11:28:46 GMT -5
A second viewing of that video has me thinking the Pats should call Carbonell. 6-3, 215, 6.44 40 - hell, Tom Brady would throw that 150 balls a year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2014 11:34:04 GMT -5
One huge dude, but that's quite an awkward swing. There are hundreds of toolsy guys that could look that good in BP.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 12:41:59 GMT -5
I have lost confidence that Red Sox ownership will ever again spend the money necessary to sign a big name international free agent who doesn't play soccer. This. x10.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2014 15:44:50 GMT -5
I have lost confidence that Red Sox ownership will ever again spend the money necessary to sign a big name international free agent who doesn't play soccer. UH does last year ring a bell SIGNING THE BEST BAT ON THE MARKET? or this year when they plan to blow past their cap?
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2014 15:46:09 GMT -5
I think django is talking about older Cuban IFAs, not 16-year-old Dominicans.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 16:11:53 GMT -5
So was I. They have been aggressive in the amateur market. Not so much with pros from other countries who hit the market.
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Post by godot on May 21, 2014 17:24:23 GMT -5
So was I. They have been aggressive in the amateur market. Not so much with pros from other countries who hit the market. Yup, they will not be aggressive with pros from other countries who hit the market, for well, they are in effect free agents , and the Sox have their limits here. Seems other teams haven't and have ended up lately with some good ball players. Amateurs have even greater risk and are cheaper in comparison, so they spent a tad more here. Of course, takes many years to develop and many misses ( and spending how much to develop). but the pros from other countries seem to step right in. I am sure some one can cherry pick here.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2014 17:29:59 GMT -5
There are plenty of busts too. Dice-K, Igawa, Ishii, Fukudome. Lots of people wanted us in on Miguel Gonzalez last year and he's in High A now.
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Post by jdb on May 21, 2014 17:31:20 GMT -5
I just don't know. If Abreu waited to sign after the WS I think there's a decent chance he's our 1B. Heck weren't we only a few million off? With us needing a good corner OFer I'm hoping we make a run at both of these guys.
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Post by jdb on May 21, 2014 17:33:12 GMT -5
There are plenty of busts too. Dice-K, Igawa, Ishii, Fukudome. Lots of people wanted us in on Miguel Gonzalez last year and he's in High A now. But have you seen our team in Salem? It's brutal. They could really use a guy like Gonzalez.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2014 17:36:57 GMT -5
There are plenty of busts too. Dice-K, Igawa, Ishii, Fukudome. Lots of people wanted us in on Miguel Gonzalez last year and he's in High A now. But have you seen our team in Salem? It's brutal. They could really use a guy like Gonzalez. Send Doubront there. He'd probably be even better than Gonzalez.
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Post by godot on May 21, 2014 17:58:16 GMT -5
There are plenty of busts too. Dice-K, Igawa, Ishii, Fukudome. Lots of people wanted us in on Miguel Gonzalez last year and he's in High A now. I said lately, and seems like you are cherry picking. Seems the more recent signings ( in the last couple of years) have been more fruitful. Again, nothing "scientific" here. And why is that every time a pitcher from Japan is on the market someone brings up Dice-K. My favorite is you can't walk off the islands.
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2014 18:00:35 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the Red Sox have been plenty involved in signing Cuban defectors-- see, e.g., Dalier Hinojosa and Jose Iglesias, not to mention the likes of Adalberto Ibarra and Juan Carlos Linares.
They have been less involved with the bigger-money international guys, though, and it's fair to suggest that they should perhaps be more aggressive on that front. Although, as mentioned above, they were one of the finalists in the Abreu sweepstakes (Olney mentioned that they big $60m+, Abreu ultimately signed for $68m), they weren't really in on Darvish/Tanaka or Cespedes/Puig. I will note that just because many of the recent big-money imports have outperformed their contracts, it doesn't mean the next guy will. Each player should get their own independent evaluation.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2014 18:01:03 GMT -5
There are plenty of busts too. Dice-K, Igawa, Ishii, Fukudome. Lots of people wanted us in on Miguel Gonzalez last year and he's in High A now. I said lately, and seems like you are cherry picking. Seems the more recent signings ( in the last couple of years) have been more fruitful. Again, nothing "scientific" here. And why is that every time a pitcher from Japan is on the market someone brings up Dice-K. My favorite is you can't walk off the islands. Because it's a good example of not knowing what you're getting and setting the team back in a huge way for several years.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 19:51:48 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the Red Sox have been plenty involved in signing Cuban defectors-- see, e.g., Dalier Hinojosa and Jose Iglesias, not to mention the likes of Adalberto Ibarra and Juan Carlos Linares. They have been less involved with the bigger-money international guys, though, and it's fair to suggest that they should perhaps be more aggressive on that front. Although, as mentioned above, they were one of the finalists in the Abreu sweepstakes (Olney mentioned that they big $60m+, Abreu ultimately signed for $68m), they weren't really in on Darvish/Tanaka or Cespedes/Puig. I will note that just because many of the recent big-money imports have outperformed their contracts, it doesn't mean the next guy will. Each player should get their own independent evaluation. Completely agree. Just wondering if the Sox are truly doing the due diligence on all these guys. If they are they may want to assign new scouts. "Hitting" on Hinojosa, Ibarra and Linares and missing on Cespedes, Puig, Abreu, Darvish and Tanaka signals some possible problem with talent evaluation.
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2014 20:02:11 GMT -5
There are two possible problems: player evaluation or risk tolerance. Some of it has to be the former, but a lot of other teams made the same mistake, so it's hard to fault them too much for not seeing how seamlessly these guys would translate to the majors. But some of it is also the latter, which I think it's fair to be critical of.
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2014 23:31:43 GMT -5
I mean that they might prefer an option with less upside but also less downside risk (think one of the recent veteran free agent signings-- Victorino, Napoli, Dempster, etc.) to an option (like the veteran IFAs mentioned above) that has more upside but also more downside risk.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 22, 2014 0:10:19 GMT -5
Arguing that the Red Sox are unwilling to splash money on players from Cuba or Japan on the basis of 6 specific cases (Puig, Cespedes, Abreu, Darvish, Tanaka, and Soler)seems really silly. Even more so when Boston was the second or third highest bidder on one of those players and were also the highest bidders on Jose Iglesias.
Yes in hindsight,it would have been awesome to have any of those players. But the fact is that the success that they have had was far from guaranteed*. Committing north of 30 million dollars** and a roster space to guy who you have only scouted against amateur competition is a risky proposition, regardless of how young or physically gifted the player may be. The front office has spent money in the draft, in the IFA market, and on Free agency. Maybe they can be afforded some moderation in this particular market.
* Some of these players still have some lingering questions. A)Abreu's plate discipline has been much worse than initially expected, and as of right now his monster season is being propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB% of 37.5%. It is certainly possible that he does have a specific skill there that will result in a high HR rate, but there is now way that he will be able to sustain anything north of 25% for a season. Though I will also say that it is possible that Abreu will improve his BB%. We have seen a lot of really good hitters see a decrease in walk rate when they are on fire like he has been. B) While I love me some Jorge Soler, and that I am convinced that he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the milb other than Buxton, he has not been able to stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. Oh and yes he is going to DL again.
**The secret is out. Cespedes and Puig are bargains. But neither Abreu or Tanaka (I bet he is happy about that opt out) were signed to deals that give any extra value. Abreu is being paid like a 3 win player and with his limited defensive value he will have to hit like Manny circa 2004-2007 be worth any more than 3 wins a season (yes look it up, despite WRC+ of over 150 for that three year stretch he was worth 9.4 WAR - granted he was laughably bad in the field). Meanwhile Tanaka is being paid like a front end of the rotation starter- and while he has been a legitimate ace, even if he puts up six wins he is not providing that much extra value.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2014 9:47:05 GMT -5
There are two possible problems: player evaluation or risk tolerance. Some of it has to be the former, but a lot of other teams made the same mistake, so it's hard to fault them too much for not seeing how seamlessly these guys would translate to the majors. But some of it is also the latter, which I think it's fair to be critical of. By "risk tolerance" you mean the Sox are being cheap right? Yeah, they're cheap by not being as stupid as the Dodgers and Yankees. Or maybe it's more about not repeating 2012.
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Post by stevedillard on May 22, 2014 10:11:53 GMT -5
If by not repeating 2012 you mean drafting 7th overall, don't worry, they'd be drafting 6th overall right now.
Seriously, 2012 and 2013 were extreme outliers, in both directions. If we try and draw lessons from 2012 (the danger of long term contracts) and 2013 (the benefits of short term contracts) then the Sox are bigger fools.
As with everything in life, its a balance issue. Right now, they are slightly too risk averse given their ability to tolerate a bad investment (the true lesson of 2012, you can get out of bad contracts).
To my mind, they lack a lot of foundational aspects. Money buys those, either as defector/Asian free agents, MLB free agents (and it used to be the draft to replenish the internal talent) in order to trade for talent.
They have been competitive for some of the defector/Asians, but seem too conservative to win any of the bidding. They had a good opportunity to fill a spot long term, both money wise and positionally, but didn't take advantage of the opportunity.
With MLB free agents, they signed Pedroia, but have so far drawn the line on Lester, and have not taken any longer term contrats.
They now have the ability to trade their chips for a longer term core part. I don't blame them for letting WMB/Bogaerts/JBJ show who they are, in the hope they could pan out and save them from having to spend a lot of money. I think we can agree that they have shown that this hope didn't work out. They have a full year honeymoon to put together a deal, but I would hope they use this opportunity to make such a trade.
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