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Post by Guidas on Jan 30, 2014 9:42:04 GMT -5
For perspective when Law's Red Sox Top 10 comes out today, here is his Top 10 from 2013:
Red Sox's Top 10 Player, POS (Top 100 rank) 1. Xander Bogaerts, SS (5) 2. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF (40) 3. Allen Webster, RHP (63) 4. Matt Barnes, RHP (79) 5. Henry Owens, LHP 6. Deven Marrero, SS 7. Blake Swihart, C 8. Garin Cecchini, 3B 9. Drake Britton, LHP 10. Brian Johnson, LHP
Sleeper comments: Lefty Drake Britton is the dark horse here, working at 94-97 at year-end with a four-pitch arsenal, and he could also break in as a reliever while he works on fastball commandPitcher Cody Kukuk and center fielder Manuel Margot are the best sleepers in the system. Their 2012 fifth-round pick, Mike Augliera, works at 90-93 with plus sink and even better control, touching 95 in shorter outings but losing sink at the same time; he's most likely a reliever (and thus not a future top-100 guy) but could move quickly in that role.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 30, 2014 10:21:39 GMT -5
Actually in the interview Alex Hassan said that he needs to be aggressive and should not miss mistakes because even AAA pitchers have pretty good command and don't give second chances to hit too often. This was also mentioned in regards to Cecchini on the Sox Prospects podcast.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 30, 2014 10:54:29 GMT -5
]I mean, I'm not saying he's not great but, 28 innings over 11 starts should tell you something. Those are glorified relief appearances and in that sense the numbers aren't that insane, even for a 16 year old. I totally, totally disagree with you here. He was one of the youngest people in his signing class, and nearly everyone else he signed with spent all of 2013 in the DSL. He was facing hitters significantly older and more polished - minor league veterans, college hitters, high school phenoms, etc... and they weren't touching him. Of course he was throwing short outings - he was, as far as I can tell, the youngest professional pitcher in North America last season. And he wasn't in the Rookie Leagues, he was in a full season league! For perspective, Henry Owens had a 28.9% K rate against 450 batters in his Single-A debut as a 19 year old, and we all got (rightfully) very excited. Urias had a 31.8% K rate against 211 batters when he was three years younger.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 30, 2014 11:12:07 GMT -5
It's generally believe that minor league players players with a high walk rate but a limited hit tool/power will struggle to maintain that walk rate in the majors because pitchers will have better control/command and are able to just pound the strike zone and dare the hitter to beat them. I'm not sure to what extent this mantra is actually empirically true, but there are lots of examples of it playing out that way (Lin is a good one, for instance) Can we put this lazy canard to rest? Maintaining a high walk rate was never Che-Hsuan Lin's problem, is still not his problem, and he's never had significant time in the majors to show it would ever be a problem. BB/PA by level: A - 10% A+ - 12% AA - 13% AAA - 11% AAA 2013 - 14%
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 30, 2014 13:08:44 GMT -5
It's generally believe that minor league players players with a high walk rate but a limited hit tool/power will struggle to maintain that walk rate in the majors because pitchers will have better control/command and are able to just pound the strike zone and dare the hitter to beat them. I'm not sure to what extent this mantra is actually empirically true, but there are lots of examples of it playing out that way (Lin is a good one, for instance) Can we put this lazy canard to rest? Maintaining a high walk rate was never Che-Hsuan Lin's problem, is still not his problem, and he's never had significant time in the majors to show it would ever be a problem. BB/PA by level: A - 10% A+ - 12% AA - 13% AAA - 11% AAA 2013 - 14% Ben Revere is probably a better example. Walk rate was consistently around 8% in the minors but has fallen to around 5% in the majors. As for Lin, I don't think that anyone really believes that he'll have a have a major league walk rate as high as his minor league walk rate. Which is probably among the reasons why he was unable to crack the worst roster in the majors.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 30, 2014 13:33:49 GMT -5
Well he had his best couple of years here. I assume he means cecchini's downside is a .370 OBP .400 slg. If that's really his "downside," Cecchini needs to be ranked a hell of a lot higher. If he's an average 3B defender with that line, he's a three win player. A .370 OBP/.400 SLG plays up even if he has to move off 3B. If he's an average defender in LF with that line, he'd be a roughly two win player, and if he's an average 1B defender with that line, he's a 1.5 win player. Having a floor of an averagish regular would be really impressive on its own, especially since his ceiling is that of an All-Star level player if he stays at 3B and flashes some power. I know it's just a throwaway line from Law, but I see this sort of imperfect understanding of player value a lot with prospect evaluators. A high OBP player is incredibly valuable even if he hits for little power. A great defensive catcher or shortstop is incredibly valuable even if he doesn't hit very well. I totally agree. Mueller was a 3 win player even before boston.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 30, 2014 13:36:01 GMT -5
I would even love it if Cecchini has Dave Magadan type of career (though hopefully with more at bats).
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 30, 2014 14:45:17 GMT -5
I would even love it if Cecchini has Dave Magadan type of career (though hopefully with more at bats). Fair comparison. I am going to say less walks/OBP, more power, and not as good a glove.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 30, 2014 18:05:13 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a Mike Greenwell in Cecchini.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 30, 2014 20:31:41 GMT -5
I love the quote on Barnes.
I think he will make a leap this year and is a half grade higher than the other righty starters.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 30, 2014 23:29:13 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a Mike Greenwell in Cecchini. Greenwell with a better OBP. Greenwell was notorious for hacking at the first pitch constantly, but being a young Greenwell type hitter before Greenwell had the back issues would be a good thing. He had a touch of power to go with a high BA. I'd like to see Cecchini hit 22 homers like Greenwell did in 1988 when he was at his peak. I think Cecchini will be the kind of hitter who'll challenge and perhaps win a batting title someday, but he'll have a bunch of walks thrown in. In a way he makes me think of a Bill Mueller or a poor man's Wade Boggs - a guy questionable on defense (when he first came to the majors), had power but didn't use it, and took a ton of walks while hitting for a high BA, not that I'd expect Cecchini to hover around .360 the way Wade Boggs almost always did from 1982 - 1988.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 31, 2014 2:06:44 GMT -5
Meuller or Youk seem to come up a lot ( Red Sox, duh) but my line of thinking is Boggs Lite.
I also don't see the Greenwell comp. but I probably have a different impression of him than most of you. My impression is somebody that compensated for warning track power by over swinging. Even at his peak, I always thought he could have been a better hitter if he stayed within himself and took advantage of the monster.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on Jan 31, 2014 7:44:08 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a Mike Greenwell in Cecchini. Greenwell with a better OBP. Greenwell was notorious for hacking at the first pitch constantly, but being a young Greenwell type hitter before Greenwell had the back issues would be a good thing. He had a touch of power to go with a high BA. I'd like to see Cecchini hit 22 homers like Greenwell did in 1988 when he was at his peak. I think Cecchini will be the kind of hitter who'll challenge and perhaps win a batting title someday, but he'll have a bunch of walks thrown in. In a way he makes me think of a Bill Mueller or a poor man's Wade Boggs - a guy questionable on defense (when he first came to the majors), had power but didn't use it, and took a ton of walks while hitting for a high BA, not that I'd expect Cecchini to hover around .360 the way Wade Boggs almost always did from 1982 - 1988. Greenwell walked 87 times in 1988 and was the non-PED MVP, finishing second in the voting to Canseco, at age 24. I thought he was a cross between Boggs and Mattingly. Then there was a combination of pitchers figuring him out, injuries sapping his power, and lack of brains preventing the necessary adjustments.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 31, 2014 8:29:31 GMT -5
I think we've gone comp happy. Let's just let him be him, comps never work. If you want to describe what kind of player he'll be, let's go with something like:
- Average defender either at third, first or left field - High OBP - Strong average hitter who sprays the ball around the field - Candidate to amongst league leaders in doubles - 15 hrs w/ potential to add up to 10 to that at his peak - not a burner, but not slow - smart base runner - will swipe a few bags and take the extra base when it's there - baseball junky - loves the game - grew up around it and lives it - good clubhouse guy
Overall a guy, I can see hitting 2-3-5-6 in a strong lineup and being an all-star player if he's healthy. May not have all the tools, but not many weaknesses and the tool he does have is easily the most important. The hit tool.
The reason I like him so much is he's going to get on base at an above average MLB clip at a minimum.
I like Bradley so much due to elite defense and a similar but slightly less On base ability.
Both have the upside for more. Hard to not see them as MLB regulars. Other then Xander, not sure I can say the same as confidently for anyone else just yet.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 31, 2014 8:44:47 GMT -5
Bradley and Cecchini hitting lead off and second is massive for run production. Let the power hitters drive 'em in!
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 31, 2014 9:58:14 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a Mike Greenwell in Cecchini. Greenwell with a better OBP. Greenwell was notorious for hacking at the first pitch constantly, but being a young Greenwell type hitter before Greenwell had the back issues would be a good thing. He had a touch of power to go with a high BA. I'd like to see Cecchini hit 22 homers like Greenwell did in 1988 when he was at his peak. Greenwell had pretty good walk rates, despite being a great first-pitch fastball hitter. He was a good example of when we hear "patient but not passive." He'd willingly take a walk, but he wouldn't let a meaty pitch go by just to work a count. He had more extra-base hits than strikeouts every year of his career except for his injury-plagued 1992 (which was a disaster for the team in general). Greenwell's problems were that he couldn't stay on the field, and that the rest of his career was always something of a disappointment after his ridiculous 1988. I'd be thrilled if Cecchini was the same type of player.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2014 10:04:51 GMT -5
If you want to describe what kind of player he'll be, let's go with something like: - Average defender either at third, first or left field - High OBP - Strong average hitter who sprays the ball around the field - Candidate to amongst league leaders in doubles - 15 hrs w/ potential to add up to 10 to that at his peak - not a burner, but not slow - smart base runner - will swipe a few bags and take the extra base when it's there - baseball junky - loves the game - grew up around it and lives it - good clubhouse guy Overall a guy, I can see hitting 2-3-5-6 in a strong lineup and being an all-star player if he's healthy. May not have all the tools, but not many weaknesses and the tool he does have is easily the most important. The hit tool. The reason I like him so much is he's going to get on base at an above average MLB clip at a minimum. This strikes me as a bit on the optimistic side, especially in the power department. Not unreasonably so, but still probably in the upper third maybe in the range of possible outcomes?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on Jan 31, 2014 10:10:10 GMT -5
Greenwell with a better OBP. Greenwell was notorious for hacking at the first pitch constantly, but being a young Greenwell type hitter before Greenwell had the back issues would be a good thing. He had a touch of power to go with a high BA. I'd like to see Cecchini hit 22 homers like Greenwell did in 1988 when he was at his peak. Greenwell had pretty good walk rates, despite being a great first-pitch fastball hitter. He was a good example of when we hear "patient but not passive." He'd willingly take a walk, but he wouldn't let a meaty pitch go by just to work a count. He had more extra-base hits than strikeouts every year of his career except for his injury-plagued 1992 (which was a disaster for the team in general). Greenwell's problems were that he couldn't stay on the field, and that the rest of his career was always something of a disappointment after his ridiculous 1988. I'd be thrilled if Cecchini was the same type of player. It wasn't just injuries, though they were crucial. And it wasn't just that "he wouldn't let a meaty pitch go by just to work a count". He often wouldn't let an apparently meaty pitch that was going to wind up three inches off the ground go by. Tremendous bat-to-ball skill, though.
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Post by taftreign on Jan 31, 2014 11:26:03 GMT -5
I see Cecchini as more of a Left Field version (less arm) of Nick Markakis. Oh wait, were not doing comps. My bad.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 31, 2014 11:27:57 GMT -5
If you want to describe what kind of player he'll be, let's go with something like: - Average defender either at third, first or left field - High OBP - Strong average hitter who sprays the ball around the field - Candidate to amongst league leaders in doubles - 15 hrs w/ potential to add up to 10 to that at his peak - not a burner, but not slow - smart base runner - will swipe a few bags and take the extra base when it's there - baseball junky - loves the game - grew up around it and lives it - good clubhouse guy Overall a guy, I can see hitting 2-3-5-6 in a strong lineup and being an all-star player if he's healthy. May not have all the tools, but not many weaknesses and the tool he does have is easily the most important. The hit tool. The reason I like him so much is he's going to get on base at an above average MLB clip at a minimum. This strikes me as a bit on the optimistic side, especially in the power department. Not unreasonably so, but still probably in the upper third maybe in the range of possible outcomes? Yeah, that's gotta be on the optimistic side, right? What would that work out to be in a slash line? "High OBP" and average would be what .310/.400? But then you tack on "league leader in doubles" and 15-20HRs, just roughly that'd be around a .480-.500SLG. You're basically talking about Pedroia's MVP season with a little higher OBP, a 880-900 OPS hitter and an average defender at third base. In other words, an elite player who is probably a HoF candidate if he has a reasonably long career. [Actually, let me walk that back a bit ... that's a top-end third baseman, for sure, but it's basically Adrian Beltre with higher OBP and less power. Is that HoF-worthy? I don't know. Not to derail this, but is there a case for Beltre if you take out his Safeco years?] I mean, I do think it's in the realm of the possible, don't get me wrong (Cecchini Fan Club Charter Member TM), but clearly an "everything goes right" projection. I think the point about the hit tool is key, though. Not all tools are created equal, and a guy with a 70 hit tool is a helluva lot more valuable than a guy with a 70 arm ...
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 31, 2014 12:36:42 GMT -5
I see Cecchini as more of a Left Field version (less arm) of Nick Markakis. Oh wait, were not doing comps. My bad. The .329 OBP Markakis of last season? Better to quit doing comps indeed.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 31, 2014 13:17:18 GMT -5
Markakis has a career .292/.360/.441 line in over 5000 plate appearances. His previous career-low OBP was .347. So he either had a down season or peaked early. Either way, it's a line I'd be totally happy with out of Cecchini.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 31, 2014 13:24:18 GMT -5
1.000 OPS or bust.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 31, 2014 13:29:09 GMT -5
Greenwell with a better OBP. Greenwell was notorious for hacking at the first pitch constantly, but being a young Greenwell type hitter before Greenwell had the back issues would be a good thing. He had a touch of power to go with a high BA. I'd like to see Cecchini hit 22 homers like Greenwell did in 1988 when he was at his peak. Greenwell had pretty good walk rates, despite being a great first-pitch fastball hitter. He was a good example of when we hear "patient but not passive." He'd willingly take a walk, but he wouldn't let a meaty pitch go by just to work a count. He had more extra-base hits than strikeouts every year of his career except for his injury-plagued 1992 (which was a disaster for the team in general). Greenwell's problems were that he couldn't stay on the field, and that the rest of his career was always something of a disappointment after his ridiculous 1988. I'd be thrilled if Cecchini was the same type of player. Jeez the image of Gator being a patient hitter didn't jibe with my memory of him so I looked him up and yeah, wow, he walked 87 time in 1988 - had an OBP of .416, something Cecchini is certainly capable of doing in his peak seasons in my opinion, but other than 1988 Greenwell wasn't that patient. He was under the 10%/AB ratio otherwise. He had a great hit tool as jimoh pointed out and that's something that Cecchini possesses as well. I'm thinking a Wade Boggs lite (questionable skills at 3b, although Boggs became excellent), consistently fantastic batting eye, batting champ material with a Mike Greenwell like lifetime BA (don't see him hitting like Boggs did at his peak). I still think at his peak Cecchini could crack the 20 HR mark, but we'll see. If he stays healthy I think his downside is Mueller or Dave Magadan. Either way he looks like he can be an excellent player. The question becomes where. It's not inconceivable, although pretty unlikely, if WMB proves his worth, eventually the IF could be Bogaerts at 3b, Betts at SS, Pedey at 2b, and WMB at 1b. I still think that if WMB turns into a major power threat who can hold down the 3b job, the Sox might look at Cecchini in LF for 2015?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 31, 2014 13:31:30 GMT -5
So a couple things:
That is a bit optimistic, but I was more trying to point out it's better to draw up a scouting report then say he's going to be like MIke Greenwell or some other player, when in fact he's different.
Brian a couple nit picks from your analysis of my "scouting report" and some clarifications of what I was trying to illustrate.
1. I didn't say he was going to be a high average guy... I used the word strong (a bit vague, but I purposely didn't use "high")... .280-.290 is a strong average to me and a high OBP would be .370+ IMO
2. I just said a candidate to be amongst the league leaders in doubles w/15 hrs, not that I expect him to be perennially leading the league in doubles. The point was to illustrate the type of hitter he would most likely be. Meaning a doubles power guy w/ some HR pop, not a power hitter.
Lets face it, when we compare players to certain guys, we are usually comparing them to how that player was at his peak. I'm not sure what people are referring to otherwise. It's ridiculous to project a player to follow another's career path. Magadan for instance only played in more than 128 games twice in his entire career, with 4 years in the 120s. His career isn't one to project on someone. Greenwell was a stud at 24/25 years old then very good from 26-30 (with some injuries mixed in including one lost year) before falling off a cliff. Another, career you can't really project someone to follow. So which Greenwell are you comparing? Age 24/25? or age 26/27/30?
Baseball is littered with guys who put up HOF worthy years in their careers if they could sustain those years over a long period of time with good health. Does anyone think Chris Davis is a future HOF player? Probably not, but he just had a HOF worthy year.
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