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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 29, 2014 9:36:15 GMT -5
1 Byron Buxton CF MIN
2 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS
3 Addison Russell SS OAK
4 Carlos Correa SS HOU
5 Oscar Taveras OF STL
6 Francisco Lindor SS CLE
7 Javier Baez SS CHC
8 Miguel Sano 3B MIN
9 Archie Bradley RHP ARI
10 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC
42 Henry Owens LHP BOS
51 Jackie Bradley Jr. CF BOS
53 Garin Cecchini 3B BOS
56 Blake Swihart C BOS
61 Mookie Betts 2B BOS
89 Matt Barnes RHP BOS
No Ball, no Webster (who had been ranked the last two years...Law obviously adhers to the rule "if you make the show, don't suck!")
Flame on!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 9:52:38 GMT -5
His team rankings that I know of:
1. Astros
2. Twins
3. Pirates
4. Cubs
5. Red Sox
10. Orioles
20. Yankees
23. Rays
24. Blue Jays
26. A's
27. White Sox
28. Tigers
29. Angels
30. Brewers
He also said in the video that he thought the Astros and Twins were very close and a tough decision.
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Post by jdb on Jan 29, 2014 10:28:44 GMT -5
Count me as shocked he had Brandon Shipley that high at 25.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 29, 2014 10:28:59 GMT -5
17 year old LHP Julio Arias from the Dodgers at #14 seems incredibly bold
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Post by Guidas on Jan 29, 2014 10:32:51 GMT -5
"Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defense"
That's a hell of a downside.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 29, 2014 10:52:45 GMT -5
I like Law but I don't have a lot of respect for his projections. This seems about right to me though in terms of Redsox prospects. It's good to see Mookie getting so much love recently.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 10:59:21 GMT -5
17 year old LHP Julio Arias from the Dodgers at #14 seems incredibly bold I've read a few things on him that make him sound like the second coming and definitely age advanced. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 29, 2014 11:11:26 GMT -5
You know, I'd never looked this closely at Urias's stat line. Holy &%!#. Over his last 11 starts, he threw 28 innings and had a 1.61 ERA, walked three and struck out 37. Opponents hit .186/.218/.268 against him.
In the middle of that stretch (8/12) he turned 17. He did this in the Midwest League. He's two months older than Rafael Devers, and he dominated the Midwest League!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 11:34:10 GMT -5
You know, I'd never looked this closely at Urias's stat line. Holy &%!#. Over his last 11 starts, he threw 28 innings and had a 1.61 ERA, walked three and struck out 37. Opponents hit .186/.218/.268 against him. In the middle of that stretch (8/12) he turned 17. He did this in the Midwest League. He's two months older than Rafael Devers, and he dominated the Midwest League! That sounds like the second coming and definitely age advanced. I don't recall reading about stats, I recall 3 plus pitch potential with present command. |
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Post by ramireja on Jan 29, 2014 11:39:52 GMT -5
You know, I'd never looked this closely at Urias's stat line. Holy &%!#. Over his last 11 starts, he threw 28 innings and had a 1.61 ERA, walked three and struck out 37. Opponents hit .186/.218/.268 against him. In the middle of that stretch (8/12) he turned 17. He did this in the Midwest League. He's two months older than Rafael Devers, and he dominated the Midwest League! Thats certainly jaw dropping and impressive. Still though, I think that level of performance should warrant top 50 status at the most. To be ranked ahead of guys like Taijuan Walker, Gausman, and Syndergaard is borderline insane given the latter trio's combination of talent and proximity to the majors. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2014 11:43:32 GMT -5
Urias is the real deal. He ranked #34 on BP's list, for instance. Both his statistical performance and scouting reports are sterling and he's still super age-advanced and projectable.
(He won't be as high on BA's list (for instance, he's ranked third amongst Dodgers prospects there behind Peterson and Seager) because he's still a long way from the majors and has less of a track record, and they're one of the more conservative outlets. But guys like Law and Parks are more willing to take a chance on what looks like a tantalizing talent.)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 11:50:56 GMT -5
You know, I'd never looked this closely at Urias's stat line. Holy &%!#. Over his last 11 starts, he threw 28 innings and had a 1.61 ERA, walked three and struck out 37. Opponents hit .186/.218/.268 against him. In the middle of that stretch (8/12) he turned 17. He did this in the Midwest League. He's two months older than Rafael Devers, and he dominated the Midwest League! Thats certainly jaw dropping and impressive. Still though, I think that level of performance should warrant top 50 status at the most. To be ranked ahead of guys like Taijuan Walker, Gausman, and Syndergaard is borderline insane given the latter trio's combination of talent and proximity to the majors. 13 places up from that, the #1 prospect only has half a year of advanced A experience. Is it borderline insane to rank him ahead of a player with World Series experience ? |
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Post by bluechip on Jan 29, 2014 11:59:37 GMT -5
no Webster (who had been ranked the last two years...Law obviously adhers to the rule "if you make the show, don't suck!") Flame on! You can say the same thing about the Bradley ranking... Besides those two, he seems about right on the Red Sox guys, maybe even a little high on a few. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Jan 29, 2014 12:09:19 GMT -5
I am fascinated my Urias. I was trying to think of some situation where the Red Sox trade a pitcher to Dodgers for him. Gtg back to fantasy land.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 29, 2014 12:20:25 GMT -5
"Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defense" That's a hell of a downside. There's no way that's the 50th-best prospect in baseball. Bill Mueller had a career .373 OBP. If that's Cecchini's downside, but his real projection is for higher AVG/OBP with solid defense at third ... um, that's a pretty good player. Consistent All-Star good. Multiple years of .400 OBP good. I'm a huge Cecchini booster, mind you, and I think it's possible he's that good, but even I would shy away from calling Bill Mueller Cecchini's downside. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 29, 2014 13:04:05 GMT -5
Thats certainly jaw dropping and impressive. Still though, I think that level of performance should warrant top 50 status at the most. To be ranked ahead of guys like Taijuan Walker, Gausman, and Syndergaard is borderline insane given the latter trio's combination of talent and proximity to the majors. 13 places up from that, the #1 prospect only has half a year of advanced A experience. Is it borderline insane to rank him ahead of a player with World Series experience ? The pitcher equivalent of Buxton would have something like three plus to plus-plus pitches (as in right now, not potentially) with plus command. So no, it wouldn't be borderline insane. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 13:04:56 GMT -5
"Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defense" That's a hell of a downside. There's no way that's the 50th-best prospect in baseball. Bill Mueller had a career .373 OBP. If that's Cecchini's downside, but his real projection is for higher AVG/OBP with solid defense at third ... um, that's a pretty good player. Consistent All-Star good. Multiple years of .400 OBP good. I'm a huge Cecchini booster, mind you, and I think it's possible he's that good, but even I would shy away from calling Bill Mueller Cecchini's downside. Putting words into Laws mouth here but I'm thinking he's referring to Cecchini's projectable downside not his floor. That sounds reasonable to me. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 13:08:17 GMT -5
13 places up from that, the #1 prospect only has half a year of advanced A experience. Is it borderline insane to rank him ahead of a player with World Series experience ? The pitcher equivalent of Buxton would have something like three plus to plus-plus pitches (as in right now, not potentially) with plus command. So no, it wouldn't be borderline insane. Yes but Urias isn't ranked #1,that would be insane. I don't think #14 is borderline insane. |
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Post by sammo420 on Jan 29, 2014 13:10:56 GMT -5
"Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defense" That's a hell of a downside. I think Boston fans are the only ones who really appreciate Mueller. I agree though |
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Post by Guidas on Jan 29, 2014 13:27:13 GMT -5
Brian (Dallas) Keith - what is your updated assessment of Allen Webster? Did his shortcomings in the majors impact your thoughts on his ceiling, or were other guys just more talented (thus pushing him out of the top 100)?
Klaw (1:25 PM) Poor fastball command, lack of an above average breaking ball, lack of adjustments in the majors. Still in their top ten, but the "converted position player" excuse only lasts so long.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 29, 2014 13:29:19 GMT -5
The pitcher equivalent of Buxton would have something like three plus to plus-plus pitches (as in right now, not potentially) with plus command. So no, it wouldn't be borderline insane. Yes but Urias isn't ranked #1,that would be insane. I don't think #14 is borderline insane. I agree with Chris about the Buxton point. I was going to make a similar point that Buxton's toolset is unparalleled by any other position player which is essentially what he said. I find it unlikely that we would say the same regarding Urias' stuff. Listen, I'm not trying to say that he isn't a good or even great prospect. I just think that ranking him ahead of guys like Walker, Gausman, and Syndergaard seems a bit suspect. I feel like Keith Law wants to be able to say down the line "I was the first to rank him this high." I can't say for sure, but I doubt you can say Urias' stuff is better than that of the guys I listed. Therefore I don't understand why you rank him ahead of guys who need less projection. Not to mention Urias' body type isn't typically one that gains improvements in stuff as he ages. I understand how young he is though, so the range of outcomes is a bit wide. I just think Law is trying to be bold, even if Urias is a stud. I think placement in the top 50 or 40 would have been more reasonable. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 14:07:22 GMT -5
Yes but Urias isn't ranked #1,that would be insane. I don't think #14 is borderline insane. I agree with Chris about the Buxton point. I was going to make a similar point that Buxton's toolset is unparalleled by any other position player which is essentially what he said. I find it unlikely that we would say the same regarding Urias' stuff. Listen, I'm not trying to say that he isn't a good or even great prospect. I just think that ranking him ahead of guys like Walker, Gausman, and Syndergaard seems a bit suspect. I feel like Keith Law wants to be able to say down the line "I was the first to rank him this high." I can't say for sure, but I doubt you can say Urias' stuff is better than that of the guys I listed. Therefore I don't understand why you rank him ahead of guys who need less projection. Not to mention Urias' body type isn't typically one that gains improvements in stuff as he ages. I understand how young he is though, so the range of outcomes is a bit wide. I just think Law is trying to be bold, even if Urias is a stud. I think placement in the top 50 or 40 would have been more reasonable. Yes but the problem here is that neither you nor I know what his present stuff is. As I said I'm in recall mode, I'm recalling things said a few months ago and they were from within the Dodger organization and I don't know what caused me to follow those particular links. It has been a while so I have no idea what his pitch mix is or the current state. I mainly recall that the comments piqued my interest because they were inordinately glowing and at the time, my thoughts were along the lines of holy crap they are describing the second coming, a pitcher with no holes, here's a name to watch. For all I know, he has 2 plus pitches now or none. Please note that my comment was made prior to seeing the stats, they were totally based on scouting type sources. This could easily be a pitcher who is under the radar of most analysts. Also, Law strikes me as the least likely to worry about how he looks when he gives his opinion. He's very opinionated and usually expresses it. Like everyone else, sometimes he's flat out wrong but he doesn't seem to shy away from admitting it either. He might even have the most contacts of all the analysts.I don't think he's going to put him at #14 unless his combined sources have him at #14. |
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Post by taftreign on Jan 29, 2014 14:24:50 GMT -5
I'm interested in his team top 10 tomorrow. We know it will be:
1 Bogaerts
2 Owens
3 Bradley Jr
4 Cecchini
5 Swihart
6 Betts
7 Barnes
We also know Law has Webster in the top 10 from his chat. Who will be the last two? I imagine it comes down to Ranaudo, Vazquez and Ball. Who would you be more surprised to see left out? Also does it upset you that guys the team passed on in the draft are showing up high on top 100 lists (Shipley, Meadows, Smith) where as Ball is not? I suspect there was not enough sample after signing to accurately gage his potential vs someone like Hunter Harvey who vaulted up with an impressive debut.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 29, 2014 14:49:27 GMT -5
"Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defense" That's a hell of a downside. I was thinking the same thing... I loved Mueller and if that is the floor... then I'm wondering why he is ranked so low Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2014 15:04:03 GMT -5
Google:
A number of people in the Dodgers organization are convinced 16-year-old lefty Julio Urias could be in the big leagues by the time he’s 18.
— Jeff Passan (@jeffpassan) July 20, 2013
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