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2014 Pawtucket (AAA) projection
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 2, 2014 11:42:11 GMT -5
Below is my initial Pawtucket (AAA) projection, based on the following assumptions for the parent club:
Red Sox starters - Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront
Red Sox bullpen - Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Breslow, Badenhop, Dempster (swingman) (I am working off the assumption that Workman will begin the season as a starter in AAA)
Red Sox lineup - Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Pierzynski, Gomes/Nava, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Bradley, Jr.
Red Sox bench - D.Ross, Nava/Gomes, Carp/Sizemore, Herrera (I am working off the assumption Carp is traded or Sizemore is injured in ST)
2014 Pawtucket roster (age as of 3/30/14):
(SP) Wright* (29), Workman* (25), Webster* (24), Ranaudo* (24), Hinojosa (27) (IFA), Barnes (23)
(The Red Sox have six starters for five spots. I moved De La Rosa to the bullpen. It is possible that Barnes could get pushed to AA for 6-8 weeks if everyone is healthy. It is also possible that Hinojosa will also get moved to the bullpen)
(RP) A.Wilson* (27), De La Rosa* (25), Britton* (24), Watanabe (37) (signed as IFA), Hill (34) (signed as MLFA), Valdez (30) (signed as MLFA), Layne (29) (signed as MLFA), Villarreal (27), C.Hernandez (25) (DL: Ely (27) (signed as MLFA, recovering from TJ))
(The bullpen depth on the roster is significant, assuming DLR, Hill and Ely return to good health. Hill has 3/29, 5/15 and 6/30 opt-outs. My guess is that we could see Watanabe and Valdez released at the end of ST. Ely will likely not be used during the first half of the season as he returns from TJ. I am projecting Otake to be on the Portland roster.)
(OF) McCoy (32) (signed as MLFA), Brown (28) (signed as MLFA), Brentz* (25), Henry (28) (re-signed as MLFA) (Brown has an opt-out after ST. Depending on what happens with Brown, I could see Linares and/or Cousins being cut in spring training or being on the "taxi squad". Hassan will also get time in the OF.)
(IF) Hassan* (25), Meneses (22)@, Holt* (25), Cecchini* (22), Snyder (27) (re-signed as MLFA), Dent (25) (re-signed as MLFA) (Snyder can play all of the corner positions, and he, Hassan and Lavarnway will split reps at 1B. I could see Gibson making the "taxi squad".)
(C) C.Vazquez* (23), Butler* (27), Lavarnway* (26) [1B/DH] (Lavarnway is going to play more as a 1B/DH, as the Red Sox try to get all three catchers consistent PAs. Brenly will be on the "taxi squad", with Spring reprising his role as the Portland "taxi" catcher.)
* On 40-man roster
Feel free to discuss. I note that my projection should not be confused with the official SP.com projection, which may be found under the "Player Index" pulldown on the top of the screen.
I will post my AA projection next week.
Edit: added Hill's ST opt-out.
Edit #2: added Villarreal, now that he cleared waivers.
Edit #3: placed Ely on DL.
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Post by cto94 on Feb 2, 2014 12:19:17 GMT -5
definitely a lot more likely that hinojosa moves to the bullpen, everything I've read about him implied he was a middle relief guy without too much more upside. I think De la Rosa only moves to the bullpen in the majors, they're going to give him as much time to develop into a starter as possible
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2014 12:23:31 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Feb 3, 2014 8:38:55 GMT -5
As far as future MLB careers go, which opening day rotations (taken as a whole) project better, Greenville or Pawtucket? (Current wave vs. future wave)
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 3, 2014 8:40:09 GMT -5
Pawtucket.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2014 10:44:52 GMT -5
Hadn't really thought about the lack of depth at short, but that's a legit point. I think that domino will fall once something happens with Drew. If he signs with the Sox, there's your depth. If not, then you go get someone.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 3, 2014 13:47:32 GMT -5
Hadn't really thought about the lack of depth at short, but that's a legit point. I think that domino will fall once something happens with Drew. If he signs with the Sox, there's your depth. If not, then you go get someone. The SP.com projections have McCoy at 2B, and middle IF as his preferred positions. Given this scarcity, that is exactly where I would have expected him (rather than in the OF mix). That helps shore up the depth quite a bit, given Meneses and Dent can plas SS and Henry can play 2B. |
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Post by okin15 on Feb 3, 2014 13:49:49 GMT -5
Also, I can't imagine the Sox carry all 5 catchers on the 40-man. If the Sox can't find a trade partner for Lavarnway, I expect them to cut Butler.
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Post by jmei on Feb 3, 2014 14:10:11 GMT -5
Also, I can't imagine the Sox carry all 5 catchers on the 40-man. If the Sox can't find a trade partner for Lavarnway, I expect them to cut Butler. They might prefer Butler to Lavarnway for that third catcher spot, because you typically want that depth option to be more capable defensively in order to hold down the fort at the MLB level if one of your primary catchers is injured. If that's the case, Lavarnway seems like the guy who is edged out, as Butler has the edge defensively. On the other hand, if Lavarnway proves capable with the glove at 1B, he might stick on the roster nonetheless as a 1B/DH/LF depth option. He'd be competing with Snyder, Hassan, and Brentz to be the first guy to come up if one of Ortiz/Napoli/Carp/Gomes gets injured, and that's a competition he has a shot to win, I think. Related question: with Villarreal DFAed, who is the most vulnerable player on the current 40-man roster? The best candidates are probably Lavarnway, Butler, Wright, Wilson, and Holt. |
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Post by ramireja on Feb 3, 2014 14:21:17 GMT -5
Also, I can't imagine the Sox carry all 5 catchers on the 40-man. If the Sox can't find a trade partner for Lavarnway, I expect them to cut Butler. They might prefer Butler to Lavarnway for that third catcher spot, because you typically want that depth option to be more capable defensively in order to hold down the fort at the MLB level if one of your primary catchers is injured. If that's the case, Lavarnway seems like the guy who is edged out, as Butler has the edge defensively. On the other hand, if Lavarnway proves capable with the glove at 1B, he might stick on the roster nonetheless as a 1B/DH/LF depth option. He'd be competing with Snyder, Hassan, and Brentz to be the first guy to come up if one of Ortiz/Napoli/Carp/Gomes gets injured, and that's a competition he has a shot to win, I think. Related question: with Villarreal DFAed, who is the most vulnerable player on the current 40-man roster? The best candidates are probably Lavarnway, Butler, Wright, Wilson, and Holt. I'd guess Lavarnway or Butler as the most vulnerable from a trade standpoint, with Wilson being the most vulnerable from a DFA standpoint. For all we know, the entire Pawtucket starting rotation might be ahead of Wilson in terms of major league bullpen depth. |
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 3, 2014 14:21:42 GMT -5
Villarreal will need to be added to the Pawtucket mix.
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Post by jmei on Feb 3, 2014 15:01:23 GMT -5
I'd guess Lavarnway or Butler as the most vulnerable from a trade standpoint, with Wilson being the most vulnerable from a DFA standpoint. For all we know, the entire Pawtucket starting rotation might be ahead of Wilson in terms of major league bullpen depth. I agree, but would add Wright to the list of potential DFA candidates. Right now, he's no higher than fourth on the SP depth chart (Dempster, Workman, and Webster are unambiguously ahead of him), and Ranaudo/Barnes should pass him by midseason, with De La Rosa and Hinojosa perhaps in the mix as well. I think the front office tries to keep Wright through at least the early part of the season to protect against a worst-case scenario of multiple SP injuries, but I'd be pretty surprised if he ended the season on their 40-man roster. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Feb 3, 2014 18:32:58 GMT -5
Also, I can't imagine the Sox carry all 5 catchers on the 40-man. If the Sox can't find a trade partner for Lavarnway, I expect them to cut Butler. They might prefer Butler to Lavarnway for that third catcher spot, because you typically want that depth option to be more capable defensively in order to hold down the fort at the MLB level if one of your primary catchers is injured. If that's the case, Lavarnway seems like the guy who is edged out, as Butler has the edge defensively. On the other hand, if Lavarnway proves capable with the glove at 1B, he might stick on the roster nonetheless as a 1B/DH/LF depth option. He'd be competing with Snyder, Hassan, and Brentz to be the first guy to come up if one of Ortiz/Napoli/Carp/Gomes gets injured, and that's a competition he has a shot to win, I think. Related question: with Villarreal DFAed, who is the most vulnerable player on the current 40-man roster? The best candidates are probably Lavarnway, Butler, Wright, Wilson, and Holt. I would say in this order from most at risk to least: Wright, Wilson, Holt, Lava, Butler Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards |
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 4, 2014 9:52:03 GMT -5
Speaking of Wright, I imagine it would be impossible to ever see if any knuckleballer could be a decent ML pitcher on a good team with a lot of SP depth. They are so unpredictable. I have nightmares that he's claimed off waivers and he turns into the next Dickey. I know it's not likely...
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Post by okin15 on Feb 4, 2014 10:51:55 GMT -5
Holt is a very important piece as depth at SS or 2B. He has to be one of the least likely DFA candidates. You probably can't cut Lavarnway or Butler until partway through ST, but either is a good candidate at that point. I'd suggest Wilson now. Unlikely someone picks him up, and keeps him from burning an option. In fact, it'd be good for his career to be DFA'd, whether or not he is claimed.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 4, 2014 13:50:02 GMT -5
Holt is a very important piece as depth at SS or 2B. He has to be one of the least likely DFA candidates. You probably can't cut Lavarnway or Butler until partway through ST, but either is a good candidate at that point. I'd suggest Wilson now. Unlikely someone picks him up, and keeps him from burning an option. In fact, it'd be good for his career to be DFA'd, whether or not he is claimed. As things stands now the Red Sox aren't going to have to DFA anyone. Even if they do sign Stephen Drew, they will likely free up money by trading Dempster for a non 40 man roster player. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2014 13:02:40 GMT -5
Ely's Tommy John was April 24 of last year. Probably starts on the DL, come to think of it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 5, 2014 13:39:45 GMT -5
We know that Butler and Meneses have two of the bench spots, barring a trade of the former. That leaves Henry, Dent, Cousins, and Linares, pick 2, for the last 4 spots. Both you and the SP projected rosters have Henry and Dent.
I don't see that at all. Henry's not an outfielder; he's essentially a 2B who can play the OF. Like Dent. They're entirely redundant, and they both hit like second baseman, which is a bad fit for a guy who has to back up LF, RF, and DH. You want a true fourth outfielder, so I think Dent and Henry are competing for the utility spot, and Linares and Cousins, the two best hitters of the four according to Davenpecota projections, are competing for the backup OF spot.
They're both tough to call, but factoring in both upside (very small versus none) and, for the outfielders, years left of team control, I think the edges go to Dent and Linares. If you want to argue that Henry's greater experience at multiple positions and Cousin's MLB experience give them the edges, that's probably just as credible.
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 5, 2014 17:32:11 GMT -5
Ely's Tommy John was April 24 of last year. Probably starts on the DL, come to think of it. Fair point. Looking at arms such as Soria and Chamberlain, they went from first pitch off a mound to a major league game in approx 4-5 months. That would put Ely into late June. I'll fix the projection accordingly. |
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