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Dempster will not pitch in 2014
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Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 15:34:47 GMT -5
I'd say the chances are pretty high that one of or a combination of Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, RDLR, Webster, Hinojosa, and maybe even Owens could provide more value to the Red Sox than Dempster given that there are so many of them. This is a fallacy I see a lot-- that numbers can substitute for certainty. It doesn't really work like that. When you need a fill-in starter, you have to choose someone before you know how good he's going to be. Sometimes it's Workman giving you three great starts. Sometimes it's Alfredo Aceves giving you 30.1 IP of 6.41 FIP ball or Allen Webster giving you 29.1 IP of 6.53 FIP ball or Steven Wright not getting an out in the second inning against the worst team in the league.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 16, 2014 15:36:51 GMT -5
FYI His daughter has DiGeorge syndrome.. So…. Thank you for tracking this down. This is serious stuff. The deletion of a portion of one of the chromosomes has all kinds of potential side effects. Answers a lot of questions about why and why now. yup
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 15:37:17 GMT -5
I'd say the chances are pretty high that one of or a combination of Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, RDLR, Webster, Hinojosa, and maybe even Owens could provide more value to the Red Sox than Dempster given that there are so many of them. This is a fallacy I see a lot-- that numbers can substitute for certainty. It doesn't really work like that. When you need a fill-in starter, you have to choose someone before you know how good he's going to be. Sometimes it's Workman giving you three great starts. Sometimes it's Alfredo Aceves giving you 30.1 IP of 6.41 FIP ball or Allen Webster giving you 29.1 IP of 6.53 FIP ball or Steven Wright not getting an out in the second inning against the worst team in the league. Well as time goes on, it should become clearer who should be picked. Unless you're a pessimist and believe that none of our prospects will progress and be ready for the majors at any point. This year we're going to be choosing from legitimate prospects at AAA, not Aceves and Wright. The sheer numbers makes it way more likely that at least one will be able to contribute. Nothing is ever certain.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 16, 2014 15:43:06 GMT -5
If we were debating a top-5 starter then I would agree that having a proven though aging Dempster is better than counting on production from one of the younger guys. But we're not debating a top-5 rotation spot. I personally didn't have a ton of faith in Dempster to provide very much value out of the bullpen. I think he would have been primarily a mop up guy that pitched in low leverage situations. The question then comes that when the Sox did need a replacement starter due to injury, are we better off with Dempster or one of (Webster, Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo). I believe that the best of those four will be better than Dempster would have been this year. I'm not positive which of them will end up carrying that title, but I do have confidence in the team to figure it out.
So in summary - I only saw Dempster bringing marginally-above-replacement level production and I think the Red Sox can get that (and potentially then some) from the other arms they have lined up behind him. I also think there are longer term benefits to giving those opportunities to the younger guys. Add in the fact that I don't think they could have given Dempster away with his salary and I view this as a net positive for the team.
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 16, 2014 15:47:28 GMT -5
So in summary - I only saw Dempster bringing marginally-above-replacement level production and I think the Red Sox can get that (and potentially then some) from the other arms they have lined up behind him. I also think there are longer term benefits to giving those opportunities to the younger guys. Add in the fact that I don't think they could have given Dempster away with his salary and I view this as a net positive for the team. Not to mention if they had any idea this was a possibility, and it would be shocking if they didn't know at all, then even attempting to trade Dempster would have a horribly unprofessional move.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 15:49:25 GMT -5
fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/02/16/ryan-dempster-explains-decision-to-walk-away/Dempster said that the number of physical challenges that he faced as a pitcher had mounted in recent years. In particular, he said that the condition of his neck — he cited disc issues and a bone spur — was going to limit his ability to compete at a level with which he was comfortable.
“I could have a choice trying to spend the entire season trying to work through those and trying to be able to pitch but I just felt like it’??s something that’??s preventing me from doing the job I want to do and I’??m not going to go out there and put my team at a disadvantage or me at a disadvantage by not being able to compete the way I’??m able to compete,” said Dempster. “And I’??m totally comfortable with it. I’??m at peace with my decision.
“I’??m not ready,” he added. “I’??m both physically and mentally not ready to go out there and do my job. I have too much respect for this game, too much respect for my teammates, and for the game of baseball and for the organization to go out there and not be ready. I’??ve always taken great pride in being able to be prepared and be ready to go out there and perform and I’??m not ready to do that so I’??m not going to out there and half-ass it and not be a 100 percent to committed to that.”
What a great guy.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 16, 2014 15:50:23 GMT -5
I'd say the chances are pretty high that one of or a combination of Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, RDLR, Webster, Hinojosa, and maybe even Owens could provide more value to the Red Sox than Dempster given that there are so many of them. This is a fallacy I see a lot-- that numbers can substitute for certainty. It doesn't really work like that. When you need a fill-in starter, you have to choose someone before you know how good he's going to be. Sometimes it's Workman giving you three great starts. Sometimes it's Alfredo Aceves giving you 30.1 IP of 6.41 FIP ball or Allen Webster giving you 29.1 IP of 6.53 FIP ball or Steven Wright not getting an out in the second inning against the worst team in the league. We're generally on the same page jmei, but I don't think it is a fallacy at all to say that - when the need did arise, the best of the young pitchers would have been a better spot-starter than Dempster. While there is uncertainty in each of the young guys, there is a strong likelihood that one or more of them do perform at a high level and show themselves to be a better option. It isn't like Dempster would have been a sure thing. He is 37, battling injuries, and was being asked to switch back-and-forth between starting and relieving. While he's done both before, he hasn't been asked to do both for significant stretches in the same season.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 15:56:22 GMT -5
Another quote from the article...
“I’??ve been really, really fortunate and super lucky in this game and extremely humbled by the amount of money I have made for me and my family for years and years and hopefully my kid’??s kids. The money was not that much of a difficult decision,” said Dempster. “I think moreso having the opportunity to come back into the locker room and be a part of a team that’??s going to go out there and win another World Series. I always said it’??s fun to win a World Series but it’??s way more fun to be the champ and I know what that feeling’??s been like all this offseason to go out there to be the one that everyone’??s gunning for and to try to defend it is something that everybody in that locker room relishes and can’??t wait for that opportunity. I’??m a little sad that I won’??t be around for that opportunity like I’??d like to be. It’??s a choice I made and a decision I made in my life where I’??m at and I’??m comfortable with it.’?
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Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 16:15:45 GMT -5
This is a fallacy I see a lot-- that numbers can substitute for certainty. It doesn't really work like that. When you need a fill-in starter, you have to choose someone before you know how good he's going to be. Sometimes it's Workman giving you three great starts. Sometimes it's Alfredo Aceves giving you 30.1 IP of 6.41 FIP ball or Allen Webster giving you 29.1 IP of 6.53 FIP ball or Steven Wright not getting an out in the second inning against the worst team in the league. We're generally on the same page jmei, but I don't think it is a fallacy at all to say that - when the need did arise, the best of the young pitchers would have been a better spot-starter than Dempster. While there is uncertainty in each of the young guys, there is a strong likelihood that one or more of them do perform at a high level and show themselves to be a better option. It isn't like Dempster would have been a sure thing. He is 37, battling injuries, and was being asked to switch back-and-forth between starting and relieving. While he's done both before, he hasn't been asked to do both for significant stretches in the same season. Well, all of the fill-in starters who threw innings last year for the major league team were presumably the best guy available at the time, and despite that, a lot of them ended up pooping the bed. Webster was coming off a YTD line of a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP with a 30:6 K/BB in Pawtucket right before his 8 ER in 1.2 IP second start in Boston on May 8th, for instance. If you've conceded that each of the young pitchers has a fair level of uncertainty, the fact that one of them pitched well in AAA right before their callup doesn't mean their level of uncertainty has decreased much. If you think Ryan Dempster is a better pitcher than any of the young options as of now (as I do), a handful of good starts at Pawtucket doesn't move the needle much in terms of my opinion of their true talent (unless, of course, there are clear scouting improvements (e.g., RDLR regains his pre-TJ velocity or Webster's command noticeably improves)).
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Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 16:26:25 GMT -5
Anyways, I hate being the resident pessimist, so I'll add that from everything I've ever read about Dempster (including last year's post-WS-clincher impromptu BP session), he's a real class act. Having read the above quotes, I really regret having thought anything nefarious about his motivations and wish him the best going forward.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 16, 2014 16:34:10 GMT -5
Anyways, I hate being the resident pessimist, so I'll add that from everything I've ever read about Dempster (including last year's post-WS-clincher impromptu BP session), he's a real class act. Having read the above quotes, I really regret having thought anything nefarious about his motivations and wish him the best going forward. I don't think you have to worry about it as long as I'm around.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 16, 2014 16:34:59 GMT -5
We're generally on the same page jmei, but I don't think it is a fallacy at all to say that - when the need did arise, the best of the young pitchers would have been a better spot-starter than Dempster. While there is uncertainty in each of the young guys, there is a strong likelihood that one or more of them do perform at a high level and show themselves to be a better option. It isn't like Dempster would have been a sure thing. He is 37, battling injuries, and was being asked to switch back-and-forth between starting and relieving. While he's done both before, he hasn't been asked to do both for significant stretches in the same season. Well, all of the fill-in starters who threw innings last year for the major league team were presumably the best guy available at the time, and despite that, a lot of them ended up pooping the bed. Webster was coming off a YTD line of a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP with a 30:6 K/BB in Pawtucket right before his 8 ER in 1.2 IP second start in Boston on May 8th, for instance. If you've conceded that each of the young pitchers has a fair level of uncertainty, the fact that one of them pitched well in AAA right before their callup doesn't mean their level of uncertainty has decreased much. If you think Ryan Dempster is a better pitcher than any of the young options as of now (as I do), a handful of good starts at Pawtucket doesn't move the needle much in terms of my opinion of their true talent (unless, of course, there are clear scouting improvements (e.g., RDLR regains his pre-TJ velocity or Webster's command noticeably improves)). I think you're both overrating the certainty that Dempster brings in this role and underrating how much more we can learn about the younger guys between now and the time the team needs a spot start - especially when they are on the up-slope of their career trajectory. I also don't think citing Webster's struggles last year or the past struggles of guys like Alfredo Aceves really does much for the argument. There is no doubt that there is variability from start-to-start. There is also little doubt that the SP depth is significantly greater this year than it has been in a while.
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Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 16:49:21 GMT -5
The SP depth is significantly deeper than it was last year (and probably has more upside), but the jury is still out on whether it is significantly better. The top options are still Workman and Webster, and thought they have the benefit of an extra years' worth of development (which should not be taken lightly), they both still have major questions (Webster's command and Workman's secondary stuff). Barnes and Ranaudo need more development still, De La Rosa is a ghost of his former self, and Hinojosa is a total Wild Card.
ADD: I think what it really comes down to, for me, was that the many folks who greeted this news with joy implied a sort of "good riddance" attitude that I thought was totally misplaced. Dempster is not a great pitcher, but he's been a pretty good one who is far from just dead weight.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 16, 2014 16:52:54 GMT -5
I don't think its really productive to think about what ifs. Dempey did a huge favor by sitting out - he has neck issues and is old. I think we'll be okay. The team was actively trying to trade him anyway.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 16, 2014 17:03:21 GMT -5
I respect Dempster's decision to give up his salary and spend time with his family. It certainly is rare this day and age for an athlete to walk away from a guaranteed paycheck. It is a nice contrast to the mess with the Miami Dolphins which broke at the start of the weekend.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 16, 2014 17:14:07 GMT -5
Anyways, I hate being the resident pessimist, so I'll add that from everything I've ever read about Dempster (including last year's post-WS-clincher impromptu BP session), he's a real class act. Having read the above quotes, I really regret having thought anything nefarious about his motivations and wish him the best going forward. I don't think you have to worry about it as long as I'm around. The team was going to be throwing down a little more money at the craps table anyway, given that they're replacing Ellsbury and Drew with rookies. This adds to that no doubt. But as I've mentioned before, opportunities like this don't come along all that often. They garnered a pile of good will what with winning the WS out of the blue. Bogaerts all by his lonesome, moreover, opened a lot of eyes. There are many fans of the team out there who are die-hard but who were also largely uninformed about the minor league system. No more. They're ready to see what that system has to deliver. Given all that, I think that it really is the perfect time to start reaping the rewards from that talent. They may not repeat, I think last year's going to be a tough act to follow. They'll compete, however, I'd bet on that. The pessimism is understandable - it used to be part of the entry fee to be a Sox fan. But I'd temper it with the idea that a good roll on the dice can make all the difference. We found that out last year.
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 16, 2014 17:44:31 GMT -5
I understand both sides of the argument that it's tough to throw an unproven kid over a veteran who's below average, but based on what Dempster is saying and the position the Sox are in - rosterwise his absence isn't the worst thing.
I'm sorry for him that he won't be there with the Sox. Like I said I think he's a standup guy who could have, had health provided, been useful for the Sox. And the more important thing is that he's with his daughter and I wish them well. He'll always be one of 25 and remembered fondly.
From a roster standpoint if the Sox only had one viable option to replace Dempster as depth I'd be concerned, but I think early on the Sox have Workman and Webster as depth options and as the season goes on you're looking at possibly Renaudo, Barnes, or even Owens. There's a good possibility that at least one of that group can provide what Dempster provides.
Another possible beneficiary of this move for the bullpen could be an opening provided for a healthier (another year removed from surgery) in-shape Rubby De La Rosa, who if he has a good spring, could now possibly have a shot at a major league job if not Workman.
The Sox have a lot of viable options. If they didn't have that, I'd be concerned. Dempster was useful depth last season.
And of course now the Sox have $13 million to play with. THey could sign Drew to a one year plus player option deal to lower the average value and still have money left over. They could sit on it and see where the need arises as the season goes on. The Sox are in the driver's seat here.
Again, I hope I see Dempster at the ring ceremony and I hope he gets a huge ovation.
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 16, 2014 18:12:21 GMT -5
I'm in the camp with many who saw Dempster as more of an impediment to the younger arms knocking on the door than I did as an asset-- regardless of the money. Like those who assert that you have to give Xander his chance at SS, and WMB his shot at locking down 3rd base as opposed to re-signing Drew-- I feel like with these young arms, you have to find out what they can do, and get them battle tested.
Dempster, a class act, and a guy who served an important role for us, was on the downside, and was an emergency spot starter, or mop up guy at this point. I don't think he was bringing back much alone in trade, and we'd have eaten money if so. I'd rather take my chances with the young arms, since we'd still be taking our chances with what Dempster would likely provide.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 16, 2014 18:26:02 GMT -5
It is also worth noting that there will likely be two spots open in the rotation after this year and the Red Sox are on record as saying they would like at least one of those spots filled internally. While I understand the hesitation with relying on unproven talent, I don't think the Sox are excessively "relying" on them in this situation. Rather, they are positioning them to have the opportunity to prove themselves, which is necessary if we are going to fulfill the long term goal.
I'm actually not sure that it is possible to integrate young starters without relying on them to some extent.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 16, 2014 19:04:39 GMT -5
fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/02/16/ryan-dempster-explains-decision-to-walk-away/Dempster said that the number of physical challenges that he faced as a pitcher had mounted in recent years. In particular, he said that the condition of his neck — he cited disc issues and a bone spur — was going to limit his ability to compete at a level with which he was comfortable.
“I could have a choice trying to spend the entire season trying to work through those and trying to be able to pitch but I just felt like it’??s something that’??s preventing me from doing the job I want to do and I’??m not going to go out there and put my team at a disadvantage or me at a disadvantage by not being able to compete the way I’??m able to compete,” said Dempster. “And I’??m totally comfortable with it. I’??m at peace with my decision.
“I’??m not ready,” he added. “I’??m both physically and mentally not ready to go out there and do my job. I have too much respect for this game, too much respect for my teammates, and for the game of baseball and for the organization to go out there and not be ready. I’??ve always taken great pride in being able to be prepared and be ready to go out there and perform and I’??m not ready to do that so I’??m not going to out there and half-ass it and not be a 100 percent to committed to that.”
What a great guy. Yeah I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand I respect Dempster's honesty in saying that he won't be physically or mentally prepared to pitch for the Red Sox to the best of his ability and forfeiting a boatload of money based upon that. On the other hand he did sign a contract for the 2014 season which obligated him to go out and do whatever he can to pitch to the best of his ability. Dempster made his choice and obviously has the financial ability to make that choice. But what effect does his choice have on other players in a similar position down the road. What happens to a player in a similar situation who wants to try to perform and collect his check as is his right? Can his employer point to Ryan Dempster and pressure him to make a similar decision?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 16, 2014 19:06:19 GMT -5
That really is a classy, admirable move by Dempster. We've all seen guys go out there and hang on, collect the checks, and soak up a 40-man slot ... really a cool thing that Dempster did this. Whether it's a positive or not compared to a healthy Dempster is one thing, but it's clear that he did the right thing for the team and by extension the right thing for us fans who want to watch the team win.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 16, 2014 19:34:39 GMT -5
That really is a classy, admirable move by Dempster. We've all seen guys go out there and hang on, collect the checks, and soak up a 40-man slot ... really a cool thing that Dempster did this. Whether it's a positive or not compared to a healthy Dempster is one thing, but it's clear that he did the right thing for the team and by extension the right thing for us fans who want to watch the team win. ^^^ This. Ryan made a contribution to the Championship season and he'll be remembered for it. Not only filling admirably for Buccholz when he was on the DL, but I can't forget how much it meant to me as a Sox fan when he drilled A-Rod. I hope his health improves and that he and his family can handle the challenges that their daughter/sister faces. From a strategic point of view, this is like found money. So many of us wrangled over how to handle the delicate situation of a 13m player as a sixth starter/swingman and its effect upon the roster and luxury tax. It is unlikely that B.C. could have reaped anything of significant value in a trade.....and he would have had to kick in a financial incentive to make a trade happen. Best solution for all.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 19:46:26 GMT -5
fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/02/16/ryan-dempster-explains-decision-to-walk-away/Dempster said that the number of physical challenges that he faced as a pitcher had mounted in recent years. In particular, he said that the condition of his neck — he cited disc issues and a bone spur — was going to limit his ability to compete at a level with which he was comfortable.
“I could have a choice trying to spend the entire season trying to work through those and trying to be able to pitch but I just felt like it’??s something that’??s preventing me from doing the job I want to do and I’??m not going to go out there and put my team at a disadvantage or me at a disadvantage by not being able to compete the way I’??m able to compete,” said Dempster. “And I’??m totally comfortable with it. I’??m at peace with my decision.
“I’??m not ready,” he added. “I’??m both physically and mentally not ready to go out there and do my job. I have too much respect for this game, too much respect for my teammates, and for the game of baseball and for the organization to go out there and not be ready. I’??ve always taken great pride in being able to be prepared and be ready to go out there and perform and I’??m not ready to do that so I’??m not going to out there and half-ass it and not be a 100 percent to committed to that.”
What a great guy. Yeah I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand I respect Dempster's honesty in saying that he won't be physically or mentally prepared to pitch for the Red Sox to the best of his ability and forfeiting a boatload of money based upon that. On the other hand he did sign a contract for the 2014 season which obligated him to go out and do whatever he can to pitch to the best of his ability. Dempster made his choice and obviously has the financial ability to make that choice. But what effect does his choice have on other players in a similar position down the road. What happens to a player in a similar situation who wants to try to perform and collect his check as is his right? Can his employer point to Ryan Dempster and pressure him to make a similar decision? Please. He didn't sell his soul to the devil. Players have the right to retire whenever they want.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 19:48:33 GMT -5
It is also worth noting that there will likely be two spots open in the rotation after this year and the Red Sox are on record as saying they would like at least one of those spots filled internally. While I understand the hesitation with relying on unproven talent, I don't think the Sox are excessively "relying" on them in this situation. Rather, they are positioning them to have the opportunity to prove themselves, which is necessary if we are going to fulfill the long term goal. I'm actually not sure that it is possible to integrate young starters without relying on them to some extent. Yes. What we're doing here is relying on our prospects to be our 6th starter/mopup guy. We were probably going to trade him for anything anyway. This doesn't change anything. It's just surprising how it happened.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 16, 2014 20:05:47 GMT -5
Yeah I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand I respect Dempster's honesty in saying that he won't be physically or mentally prepared to pitch for the Red Sox to the best of his ability and forfeiting a boatload of money based upon that. On the other hand he did sign a contract for the 2014 season which obligated him to go out and do whatever he can to pitch to the best of his ability. Dempster made his choice and obviously has the financial ability to make that choice. But what effect does his choice have on other players in a similar position down the road. What happens to a player in a similar situation who wants to try to perform and collect his check as is his right? Can his employer point to Ryan Dempster and pressure him to make a similar decision? Please. He didn't sell his soul to the devil. Players have the right to retire whenever they want. They do but if they also have an obligation to their fellow union members to fulfill their contract. Very very few players retire in the middle of a contract and there's a reason for that. An analogous situation would be if your coworker forfeits their vacation. Yes it's his choice to do that, but by doing so he's putting you in the position where the company can now ask you to do the same thing and pressure you to do so due to the precedent it sets. No he didn't sell his soul to the devil. But if he's "classy" for forfeiting his salary, that implies that another player who chooses to try to fight through his problems for his salary as is his right is selfish and crude. I don't agree with that.
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