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Baseball America Top 100 Prospects
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2014 21:06:56 GMT -5
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Post by alex710707 on Feb 19, 2014 21:19:55 GMT -5
Top 50 being unveiled on MLB Network right now. So far... #40 Henry Owens #50 Jackie Bradley Could anyone give me the website? i don't know how to watch.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2014 21:20:22 GMT -5
MLB Network. It's on cable.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 19, 2014 21:23:42 GMT -5
I actually don't think Xander Bogaerts at #1 is THAT absurd, although we all know it's going to be Buxton at #1. Buxton may be more of an all around talent, but you don't get a much higher offensive ceiling than Bogaerts has. They both play a defensive premium position although Buxton has an edge on defense and has good speed. Depending on how you weight ceiling vs. proximity to the majors I think you could make the argument that Bogaerts should be at #1. Because he has reached the majors and contributed at the top level on the biggest stage last year (after breezing through every other level) while Buxton barely had half a season above low A.
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Post by azblue on Feb 19, 2014 21:43:31 GMT -5
One of the baseball America writers said yesterday on a preview segment that there was more of a difference between number one and number two than there was between number two and number 14 on their list.
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Post by redsoxmarc on Feb 19, 2014 21:45:10 GMT -5
Castellanos is the #20 prospect but I honestly think Middlebrooks is a better overall talent.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 19, 2014 21:54:50 GMT -5
Taveras is a beast.. Yet another guy for signed for a relatively low bonus ($145k) who has a ton of talent .
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2014 22:16:30 GMT -5
LOL, so much for having a shot at 10 or 11. (Workman was eligible for BA, I believe).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2014 22:17:28 GMT -5
I think a lot of folks here who aren't as familiar with Buxton think he's some raw athlete. He's not. Just for the sake of comparison, Buxton's vs. Bogaerts's BA handbook grades:
Buxton Bogaerts Hit 75 60 Power 65 70 Speed 80 50 Defense 80 55 Arm 75 60 Overall 75 Low 70 Low
Comparing their BP projections, they have Bogaerts at a 6+ potential hit, 6+ potential power, 6 arm, 5 glove, with an OFP of 7 and realistic role of a 6. Buxton is a 8 run, 6 arm, 7 potential glove, 7 raw power, 6 potential hit, OFP of 8 and Realistic 6. So it's closer, but you can see where the separation comes.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 19, 2014 22:29:07 GMT -5
Buxton's tools set him apart. It's near universal that he is the most toolsy guy in mlb ( I would think ).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 19, 2014 22:39:15 GMT -5
Xander at No. 2 is great news in my opinion. What was more concerning to me was the 40 position gap between Meadows and Ball.
The Kolten Wong to-do list made me laugh.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 19, 2014 23:04:02 GMT -5
I find the discrepancies between all the different lists to be fascinating, though I wonder if there is an element of the organizations wanting to be unique in their prospect evaluation. The differences between BP and BA really are amazing though. BPhad JBJ at 23, ahead of both Almora and Polanco, while BA had JBJ at 50, and Polanco at 10. Maybe I am grossly overestimating the difference between the 50th and 10th ranked prospects, but it just seems like a huge difference to me. And it crops up all throughout the list. CJ Edwards at 28 for BA, 81 for BP.
It says a lot about the Red Sox system though that even with the differences in evaluation, they still manage to nab 6-8 spots on every top 100 list, and all are made up of different guys.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2014 23:37:06 GMT -5
Which is why I suggested a meta analysis - a study of studies. The idea is to weight each list by their past accuracy, and to adjust for sample size. Once that's done you can combine the lists and expect to come up with a superior estimator.
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 20, 2014 0:29:33 GMT -5
Xander at No. 2 is great news in my opinion. What was more concerning to me was the 40 position gap between Meadows and Ball. The Kolten Wong to-do list made me laugh. Honestly that 40 position gap doesn't matter at all. Meadows is definitely a solid prospect, but Ball is only beginning to focus on pitching full-time, and has a frame with tons of room for growth and development. Even the hundreds of scouts that weighed in on this list cant know, for sure, how Ball will transition into pitching full time. The sky's the limit for him, we could very well see Ball ranked in the top 50 after this season w/ Meadows looming behind. Just looking at last years draft, Lucas Sims (57), Max Fried (53), Lucas Giolito (21) were the 3 ranked HS pitchers from the 2012 1st round.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 20, 2014 1:27:32 GMT -5
How is Ball ahead of Workman and Barnes on this list, but behind him on the BA top ten?
Edit: The opposite is true for Webster
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2014 2:50:23 GMT -5
Here are the To-do comments:
#2 Xander Bogaerts . Seize a starting job in Boston. Whether it’s at shortstop or third base likely depends on Stephen Drew’s status.
#40 Henry Owens . The long, lanky Owens keeps adding strength and needs it to better repeat his delivery and throw more strikes, especially with his offspeed stuff.
#50 Jackie Bradley . Bradley failed his first test when major league pitchers challenged him inside last year. He’ll have to adjust to hard stuff in to replace Jacoby Ellsbury in Fenway’s middle garden.
#73 Blake Swihart . Athletic and still new to catching, Swihart has taken to his defensive responsibilities. Pairing power production with catching every day is the next step.
#74 Garin Cecchini . Cecchini’s polished hitting approach needs few adjustments. His athleticism doesn’t leave him much margin for error, particularly with his defense at third base, so he’ll have to keep at it to avoid a move to left field or first base.
#75 Mookie Betts . Betts showed all five tools last season, including the arm strength to make a move back to shortstop possible. With Dustin Pedroia locked in at the keystone in Boston, Betts should make it a priority.
#88 Allen Webster . Webster’s big league struggles last season likely dented his confidence, but he’ll need to have the conviction to pitch in the strike zone with his plus fastball and changeup when he gets another chance in Boston.
#89 Trey Ball . The Red Sox’s highest draft pick since Trot Nixon, Ball has put away his bat to focus on pitching. Just adopting a routine as a full-time pitcher will lay a strong foundation for the athletic southpaw
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 20, 2014 3:34:01 GMT -5
LOL, so much for having a shot at 10 or 11. (Workman was eligible for BA, I believe). It's quite possible that the Red Sox became the first team in BA history to have its number 10 prospect make the Top 100, though. I'll try to look into it. Barnes was literally in ever other Top 100 list: BP, MLB.com, Fangraphs, KLaw at ESPN, and ZiPS. And I don't think there's any rational argument that Workman, given his ceiling as a 4th or even 3rd starter (with three terrific MLB starts already under his belt) and a floor where he's already pitched the 8th inning of a clinching WS game, is not one of the top 100 prospects in the game. However, the guys at BA are (even if only subconsciously) in the business of creating an interesting list that will help them sell magazines and website subscriptions. When it comes to the editors deciding on the 90-100 slots, it's easy to see them generating more genuine enthusiasm for kids from other organizations than from one already represented 8 times. I think that if we had an Angels-like system and Barnes and Workman were our two best prospects instead of somewhere in the 8-10 range, there's no way they wouldn't have made the Top 100 list.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Feb 20, 2014 6:07:13 GMT -5
Here are the To-do comments: .. #74 Garin Cecchini . Cecchini’s polished hitting approach needs few adjustments. His athleticism doesn’t leave him much margin for error, particularly with his defense at third base, so he’ll have to keep at it to avoid a move to left field or first base. .. A little odd that they do not mention the other central question about Cecchini: hitting the ball over the fence.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2014 6:37:57 GMT -5
How is Ball ahead of Workman and Barnes on this list, but behind him on the BA top ten? Edit: The opposite is true for Webster Speier wrote the top 10. The top 100 is the result of a process involving BA's editors. Speier was pretty clearly the highest person on Webster and Workman, so that doesn't surprise me at all. I am definitely surprised that Barnes isn't there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2014 6:40:59 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 20, 2014 7:46:51 GMT -5
Xander at No. 2 is great news in my opinion. What was more concerning to me was the 40 position gap between Meadows and Ball. The Kolten Wong to-do list made me laugh. I have said this before but if the Red Sox had made the pick based on how high he would rank months later they would have picked someone else. But that's not how it works. Ball is more of a project than the other choices they had at the time including Meadows and they knew that. Bottom line Meadows is a much better prospect today.....but it's not something to be concerned about.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 20, 2014 10:11:40 GMT -5
These guys are ranked in sequential order? Then two more Sox right in a row later? Clearly, the fact that they are all Red Sox prospects has *some* bearing on their rankings in the top 100. I'm sure Eric's right that on some level, they just wouldn't put someone like Workman into the Top 100 because when you get to the back end of it, it's all pretty subjective and marginal, and there's just no reason to pile in more Sox players in that context. Doesn't mean Workman *should* be there or got robbed, just that he (or Barnes for that matter) could be there just as easily as someone else, and it's understandable for BA to err on the side of including other teams' prospects. And 8 Top 100 is amazing for the Sox ... yay, team. I think Bradley's underrated, though, (Cecchini, too) and while it's certainly fine to put Buxton as #1, the "bigger gap between 1 and 2 than between 2 and 14" comment is probably just about the grades, and if someone thinks the grades have a 1-to-1 relationship to the value of a prospect, that'd be pretty silly.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 12:03:15 GMT -5
#74 Garin Cecchini . Cecchini’s polished hitting approach needs few adjustments. His athleticism doesn’t leave him much margin for error, particularly with his defense at third base, so he’ll have to keep at it to avoid a move to left field or first base. I find that comment a little suspect. Cecchini's problem has never been athleticism-- though he's not a top-tier athlete, he has more than enough to stick at 3B (he was a SS in HS, after all). Rather, he's just kind of stiff and mechanical at 3B. He won't have to move to 1B/LF because he's too big or slow or whatever, but instead because he never developed the technical chops at the position.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 20, 2014 12:17:55 GMT -5
In non-Red Sox news, I am very surprised how low Mark Appel (39th) is in the rankings. Especially compared to Gray (12th).
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Post by okin15 on Feb 20, 2014 13:38:10 GMT -5
Xander at No. 2 is great news in my opinion. What was more concerning to me was the 40 position gap between Meadows and Ball. The Kolten Wong to-do list made me laugh. I have said this before but if the Red Sox had made the pick based on how high he would rank months later they would have picked someone else. Ball is more of a project than the other choices they had at the time including Meadows and they knew that. Bottom line Meadows is a much better prospect today.....but it's not something to be concerned about. I mean, better prospect should be a representation of better expected value (including projection, ceiling and risk), so yea, it's concerning. I think the Sox have just decided that they can find good hitters elsewhere, but they know they need to develop top of the rotation guys, and they only get one top 10 pick a decade.
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