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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 13, 2015 14:18:36 GMT -5
JBJ 1 for his last 15, 8 ks. Bust!
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 13, 2015 14:24:15 GMT -5
My problem with the "2014 is an outlier" argument is that it rests on a fact that isn't unique to 2014. JBJ's swing always had that double-tap, late front foot, hip-hitch thing in his climb up the minors. So whatever you think the problems of his previous swing does to disqualify 2014, it should be taken into account in views of his history before that. So, really, we're dealing with a fairly small sample of "Sweet Swingin' Jackie" ...
Of course, you could say, "wow, JBJ had some good stats with that nasty swing in the minors, so he'll be great!" And, who knows? Maybe so.
Personally, I'm confident he's a qualified starting CFer for the Boston Red Sox, which is a lot more than I said with his previous swing. Beyond that ... jmei's already made the argument I'd make: too much swing-and-miss at this point to feel really confident in much more going forward. He could have the power to overcome the sub-par contact rates, or he could improve his contact rates as he gets more comfortable with his swing (or makes further adjustments), but I'm not going to feel real confident about his ability to get much over 100 wRC+ at this point.
Gotta say, though, I'm really glad he got to this point. It's such a joy to see him track down balls in CF.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2015 14:32:00 GMT -5
My problem with the "2014 is an outlier" argument is that it rests on a fact that isn't unique to 2014. JBJ's swing always had that double-tap, late front foot, hip-hitch thing in his climb up the minors. So whatever you think the problems of his previous swing does to disqualify 2014, it should be taken into account in views of his history before that. So, really, we're dealing with a fairly small sample of "Sweet Swingin' Jackie" ... Of course, you could say, "wow, JBJ had some good stats with that nasty swing in the minors, so he'll be great!" And, who knows? Maybe so. Personally, I'm confident he's a qualified starting CFer for the Boston Red Sox, which is a lot more than I said with his previous swing. Beyond that ... jmei's already made the argument I'd make: too much swing-and-miss at this point to feel really confident in much more going forward. He could have the power to overcome the sub-par contact rates, or he could improve his contact rates as he gets more comfortable with his swing (or makes further adjustments), but I'm not going to feel real confident about his ability to get much over 100 wRC+ at this point. Gotta say, though, I'm really glad he got to this point. It's such a joy to see him track down balls in CF. I think some people forget that he altered his swing several times last year and was completely screwed up. The difference between now and say pre-season 2013 was that he got rid of the toe tap and quieted his hands down. And also he goes the other way a lot more now. Other than that, it's not hugely different.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 13, 2015 14:38:01 GMT -5
... And also he goes the other way a lot more now. ... really? hit charts look pretty similar for '14 and '15
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2015 14:42:59 GMT -5
... And also he goes the other way a lot more now. ... really? hit charts look pretty similar for '14 and '15 It's pretty hard to get real information from spray charts IMO. I see a lot more ground balls to 2B in 2014, but having triple the plate appearances in 2014 makes it hard to see clearly. He has hit 3 HR to CF and 2 to LF this year. He has hit the ball hard to the opposite field this year compared to last (obviously). The eye test suggest he's not rolling over on those outside pitches as much to ground the ball to 2nd as often.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 13, 2015 20:34:13 GMT -5
You're the only one bringing up this cavernous disparity. That's not what significant means. The original claim was that Betts was a way better prospect than Bradley ever was. That is what I'm claiming was incorrect, or at least a gross misrepresentation. The rest is just nitpicking (on my part, too). At their peaks they were reasonably close. If you want to argue that, that's OK, but I don't. My issue was with what I perceived as a huge exaggeration used as the crux of a false equivalency.
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2015 20:39:23 GMT -5
How high do you think Bradley was ranked at his peak prospect ranking?
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Post by telson13 on Sept 13, 2015 20:48:49 GMT -5
BA had Betts an estimated 12th midseason, right after his callup, but never ranked for that reason. Bradley was 35th before jumping to the majors from AA, clearly prematurely. Use all of the qualifiers you want, "significantly," "way better," whatever. Betts had a late meteoric rise and Bradley had a linear progression that was truncated by an early promotion. We'll have to agree to disagree, because I'm an "educated" poster, and while I'm not disputing that at their peaks Betts was a better prospect, and will probably be a better player, my issue was with the implied cavernous disparity. Talk technicalities? Where would Bradley have ranked after ST before his callup? You're saying Betts' peak ranking was affected by an early callup...so was Bradley's. Regardless, this has devolved into useless banter. Betts ranking was not "affected" by his call up. He was technically disqualified from such lists because of it. We know for a fact he would have ranked 12, and you don't dispute it. There is no gray area here, despite your best efforts to create some. That is not even close to the same thing that you are saying about Bradley, which is "Had he not been called up he would have continued succeeding in the minors and his prospect status would have risen." Except, he DID spend the vast majority of that year in AAA, and he was really good. A hundred bad PA in the majors didn't make that much of a difference. And going into 2014, his rankings didn't improve at all. He was still a consensus 30-40ish guy. That is a direct refutation of your premise. And all I said was Mookie is and was better. You inferred the "cavernous" disparity on your own. And as Chavo pointed out, the facts back me up. "And Mookie is/was a better player/prospect than JBJ ever was." That's your original statement and I misread it as "is a way" not "is/was," so yes, I agree with you. I was arguing my own incorrect interpretation.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 13, 2015 20:50:10 GMT -5
How high do you think Bradley was ranked at his peak prospect ranking? I already stated that somewhere.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 13, 2015 21:37:02 GMT -5
Bradley really struggling again with pitches inside.
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Post by rafael on Sept 13, 2015 21:57:10 GMT -5
I'll make a quick analysis to try to project JBJ's hitting production going forward. I'll assume that he'll have the same K% and BB% rates (27.6% and 11.0%) that he's having so far this season, he hits 15 HRs over 600 PA, his ISO is .167 (his ISO in AAA this season) and his BABIP is .300. Also I'll assume there will be no HBP, SF, SB...
With all those assumptions, he hits .227/.312/.394. Still an above-average regular, but not an all-star.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 14, 2015 5:39:17 GMT -5
"And Mookie is/was a better player/prospect than JBJ ever was." That's your original statement and I misread it as "is a way" not "is/was," so yes, I agree with you. I was arguing my own incorrect interpretation. Fair enough. Although I admit, at the risk of continuing this, I do think Mookie was considered a way better prospect at his peak, but that's more subjective and I suppose a reasonable argument can be made otherwise.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2015 7:23:56 GMT -5
Bradley really struggling again with pitches inside. Surprised more of us are not getting a little worried......once again. He has actually looked terrible for about 5 games. I want to see A LOT more proof that he is anywhere close to being a sure thing. He is missing pitches once again. He needs to have a more productive series against the Orioles. I'm rooting for him BIG TIME, but he looks like he is regressing.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 14, 2015 7:31:17 GMT -5
JBJ 1 for his last 15, 8 ks. Bust! Right after he was told story of Lou Clinton's flame out....
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 14, 2015 7:33:52 GMT -5
Bradley really struggling again with pitches inside. Surprised more of us are not getting a little worried......once again. He has actually looked terrible for about 5 games. I want to see A LOT more proof that he is anywhere close to being a sure thing. He is missing pitches once again. He needs to have a more productive series against the Orioles. I'm rooting for him BIG TIME, but he looks like he is regressing. Nah...He went through a ridiculous hot streak. He has closed up the inside hole. If anything I think that he has gotten a little bit too aggressive. He commits to the breaking balls in the dirt and that is the where his next patch will have to come.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 14, 2015 7:40:15 GMT -5
Bradley really struggling again with pitches inside. Surprised more of us are not getting a little worried......once again. He has actually looked terrible for about 5 games. I want to see A LOT more proof that he is anywhere close to being a sure thing. He is missing pitches once again. He needs to have a more productive series against the Orioles. I'm rooting for him BIG TIME, but he looks like he is regressing. The swing and miss is a red flag. I think it's just a problem with breaking ball recognition mainly, but his swing/contact rates are worrisome.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 14, 2015 7:43:10 GMT -5
Surprised more of us are not getting a little worried......once again. He has actually looked terrible for about 5 games. I want to see A LOT more proof that he is anywhere close to being a sure thing. He is missing pitches once again. He needs to have a more productive series against the Orioles. I'm rooting for him BIG TIME, but he looks like he is regressing. The swing and miss is a red flag. I think it's just a problem with breaking ball recognition mainly, but his swing/contact rates are worrisome. I'm not sure if it's a recognition problem or an overaggressiveness problem. He does walk a lot. Maybe he was getting too confident. He just should lay off the early offspeed junk and sit on fastballs. I predicted this a few pages ago I think. Well the junk part of it anyway. He hasn't adjusted yet. Here it is - forum.soxprospects.com/post/168880
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 14, 2015 8:06:14 GMT -5
The swing and miss is a red flag. I think it's just a problem with breaking ball recognition mainly, but his swing/contact rates are worrisome. I'm not sure if it's a recognition problem or an overaggressiveness problem. He does walk a lot. Maybe he was getting too confident. He just should lay off the early offspeed junk and sit on fastballs. I predicted this a few pages ago I think. Well the junk part of it anyway. He hasn't adjusted yet. Here it is - forum.soxprospects.com/post/168880Yeah that's definitely at least a factor too, good point.
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Post by rismith on Sept 17, 2015 9:27:41 GMT -5
So who is the real JBJ? The one who was hot for one month or the one who has not hit for the better part of the entire rest of his time in the majors. So badly want him to hit but these atrocious slumps of 1-30ish with 15ish strikeouts are hard to overlook. More and more he seems like a platoon at best. Just can't count on him like you can Mookie. They need to make Mookie the CF and stop messing with a star.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Sept 17, 2015 10:34:35 GMT -5
So who is the real JBJ? The one who was hot for one month or the one who has not hit for the better part of the entire rest of his time in the majors. So badly want him to hit but these atrocious slumps of 1-30ish with 15ish strikeouts are hard to overlook. More and more he seems like a platoon at best. Just can't count on him like you can Mookie. They need to make Mookie the CF and stop messing with a star. Even during his hot streak strikeouts were still an issue. Seems to me he is slow to adjust and now that pitchers are going high and outside he hasn't figured it out yet. I think we can all agree that 2014 wasn't a 'fluke' as he can't change his swing every time someone exposes a weakness. He is probably somewhere in the middle of his hot streak and woeful drought. But far from a 4.5 WAR floor guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2015 10:45:26 GMT -5
Can't wait for 15 years of "I told ya so!" from either side of the debate when he's on a hot streak or cold streak.
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Post by rismith on Sept 17, 2015 10:47:06 GMT -5
seems like hitting home runs always causes him to reach for power. If he was thinking singles and simply putting the ball in play he wouldn't be striking out this much. Needs to think about being more contact and less power and to really embrace that approach. I just feel like he thinks of himself as a power hitter.....
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 17, 2015 11:03:30 GMT -5
seems like hitting home runs always causes him to reach for power. If he was thinking singles and simply putting the ball in play he wouldn't be striking out this much. Needs to think about being more contact and less power and to really embrace that approach. I just feel like he thinks of himself as a power hitter..... Yeah it was easy to love that power display, but I started to worry that he was going to think he was THAT TYPE OF HITTER. I don't see him that way. Even at SC in Columbia when I saw him.....he was dangerous because he could use the entire field and get on base consistently. He has some power, but it is more doubles power. Just hit it hard where it is pitched JBJ. Get on base!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 17, 2015 11:10:28 GMT -5
"He's trying to hit for power not to get on base" is the lamest excuse for JBJ's struggles. He can't even make contact right now, I'm pretty sure he'd gladly settle for singles.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 17, 2015 11:20:02 GMT -5
Was it JBJ that was said to not want to listen to coaches his first season in the bigs, when they tried to help him with his swing etc?
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