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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2015 11:26:53 GMT -5
Was it JBJ that was said to not want to listen to coaches his first season in the bigs, when they tried to help him with his swing etc? No, that was after they changed his swing completely 3 times in the same season.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 17, 2015 11:33:01 GMT -5
I guess it's not his swing then. It's him
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 17, 2015 11:52:17 GMT -5
Maybe he's somewhere between his hot streak and his cold streak and is around the 95 wRC+ hitter than he's projected for? That's a very good player still! Just not an infallible superstar.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 17, 2015 11:54:42 GMT -5
I am not a believer in his gargantuan month. I would sell "high" on him this offseason. In large measure that is due to the fact that we have Betts in center, and depth in the minors (Margot/Benintendi). Obviously this is not based on extensive scouting of his swing, etc. I just am not a believer in a player who struggles for such a lengthy time suddenly finding a fix. His recent struggles "confirm" (sarcasm intended) my hunch.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 17, 2015 12:29:52 GMT -5
Wrote this up in the Baltimore thread. Pitchers have pretty much stopped throwing to him inside. The one time they did in that series, he sent a screamer down the right-field line that was just foul. The plan, now, appears to be up and away. That's understandable since he's also tailored his swing to lift the stuff that's down on that side into left field and he did that also, though the ball was caught on the run.
So he has to adjust, again. That is baseball, that is what pitchers do is probe for any weakness they can find. And that's what he's going to have to respond to if he can. This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 17, 2015 13:09:40 GMT -5
I am not a believer in his gargantuan month. I would sell "high" on him this offseason. In large measure that is due to the fact that we have Betts in center, and depth in the minors (Margot/Benintendi). Obviously this is not based on extensive scouting of his swing, etc. I just am not a believer in a player who struggles for such a lengthy time suddenly finding a fix. His recent struggles "confirm" (sarcasm intended) my hunch. Other teams see this as well. JBJ is not going to return you the likes of Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. He has defiantly increased his value, but it is still limited. Plus this leaves are outfield real thin. Deal from strengths not weaknesses.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 17, 2015 20:10:43 GMT -5
I am not a believer in his gargantuan month. I would sell "high" on him this offseason. In large measure that is due to the fact that we have Betts in center, and depth in the minors (Margot/Benintendi). Obviously this is not based on extensive scouting of his swing, etc. I just am not a believer in a player who struggles for such a lengthy time suddenly finding a fix. His recent struggles "confirm" (sarcasm intended) my hunch. Other teams see this as well. JBJ is not going to return you the likes of Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. He has defiantly increased his value, but it is still limited. Plus this leaves are outfield real thin. Deal from strengths not weaknesses. I wouldn't say that he's been defiant, but that's just my opinion.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 18, 2015 12:27:53 GMT -5
[ego] Before 2003 I had the most prolonged, knock-down, dragout argument on SOSH that Bill Mueller's abysmal start to 2002 (when he missd ST with an injury) should be tossed out entirely, yielding a hugely better projection. I was amazingly f***ing right. Before 2004 I had the same PKDDA that Johnny Damon's second half of '02 and first half of '03 should be tossed out because of his divorce (the key being that the remainder matched his KC numbers exactly), and I was completely right. I had the same damn PKDDA the year Ortiz deepened his crouch mid-year and started hitting LHP dramatically better (tossing out the data versus LHP from before the stance change) and I was completely right. I had the same damn PKDDA in '08, at the point where SI said that Ortiz should be released, that both Ortiz' slow start and his ten or so games after the PED allegations broke should be tossed out, and the only reason I wasn't amazingly f***ing right was that I regressed the remainder too much to the mean and underprojected him. I haven't always been right -- I argued that Nomar's road numbers in 2003 should be discounted, and the split disappeared the next year. And I can remember putting too much stock in Troy O'Leary's numbers when he came back from depression. But in general, as a methodology, it's kicked butt.[/ego] My main takeaway is that you enjoy PKDDAs.
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Post by thursty on Sept 18, 2015 17:28:20 GMT -5
Wrote this up in the Baltimore thread. Pitchers have pretty much stopped throwing to him inside. The one time they did in that series, he sent a screamer down the right-field line that was just foul. The plan, now, appears to be up and away. That's understandable since he's also tailored his swing to lift the stuff that's down on that side into left field and he did that also, though the ball was caught on the run. So he has to adjust, again. That is baseball, that is what pitchers do is probe for any weakness they can find. And that's what he's going to have to respond to if he can. This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. That's just wrong; I saw him swinging K on a high inside FB (at 89 MPH) on Wednesday
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Post by thursty on Sept 18, 2015 17:31:18 GMT -5
My main takeaway is that you enjoy PKDDAs. No, it's that he's always right
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Post by marrcus on Sept 19, 2015 13:49:24 GMT -5
Has this been the hottest to coldest streak in MLB history? It has to be close.
This is pretty disturbing. Is the balance in JB's setup so delicate that he can just fall off a cliff?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 19, 2015 14:01:16 GMT -5
Has this been the hottest to coldest streak in MLB history? It has to be close. This is pretty disturbing. Is the balance in JB's setup so delicate that he can just fall off a cliff? Agreed. I probably play GM like the rest of you, and THIS really has me worried. A few weeks ago it looked like DD would be able to put almost all of his time this off season into our pitching staff.....or the lack of one. Now, if Jackie is not going to be able to be counted on, we and DD have another huge problem in my view. If he isn't an everyday answer in the outfield, we may now need a corner outfielder! Jackie's progress or lack of it is real worrisome. We, as it stands, can't be sure of him (once again). There are few players I have pulled harder for than Jackie Bradley Jr. But this swing from batting over .400 to batting less than .100 is ridiculous. I know I'd be ecstatic with him being somewhat consistent and batting, say, .275/.340/.400. DD would probably take lesser figures with his amazing defense, but the Sox have to be worried about what they actually have.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2015 15:01:24 GMT -5
I'm not sure you can commit to him starting next year if you want to contend.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2015 15:49:52 GMT -5
I'm not sure you can commit to him starting next year if you want to contend. Eh, remember, with his defensive ability in CF, he doesn't have to hit much to be a solid starter. If he's an 80 wRC+ guy (think .220/.300/.360 or so), he's a two win-ish player. I'm still comfortable penciling him into a starting spot.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Sept 19, 2015 16:13:24 GMT -5
Has this been the hottest to coldest streak in MLB history? It has to be close. .... Not an actual answer but in 1998 Tom Tippett played around with hot and cold streaks; he notes that Henry Rodriguez went both 31-for-200 .162 and 32-for-76 .421 in 1997, but not contiguously, and at the end of what I quote cites players with bad streaks in great years in term of BA; see also John Valentin in 97, in bold: 207.56.97.150/articles/streak1.htmFun With Streaks and Slumps, Part 1 Tom Tippett June 23, 1998 ... Three years ago, Mike Benjamin set a major-league record with 14 hits (in 18 AB) in three games to raise his average to .447. ... And before that 1995 season was in the books, his average had fallen all the way to .220, thanks to a 20-for-135 (.148) slump from June 19th to the end of the season. ... Here are the top [1997] streaks of varying lengths... Streak Average Players 15-for-20 .750 SAlomar, Greer, Jeter, Lofton 26-for-40 .650 Lofton 33-for-60 .550 Gwynn, Walker, Lofton 41-for-80 .513 Cora, Gwynn 49-for-100 .490 Cora, Gwynn 57-for-120 .475 FThomas 63-for-140 .450 FThomas, Gwynn 71-for-160 .444 Gwynn 78-for-180 .433 Gwynn 87-for-200 .435 Gwynn and the worst slumps... Slump Average Players 0-for-20 .000 46 players 1-for-40 .025 Sprague, Ordonez 3-for-60 .050 Sprague 7-for-80 .088 Sprague 12-for-100 .120 HRodriguez 16-for-120 .133 JKing, Sprague, HRodriguez 20-for-140 .143 HRodriguez, Brosius 24-for-160 .150 HRodriguez, AJones 28-for-180 .156 HRodriguez 31-for-200 .162 HRodriguez [[[also went 32-for-76 (.421)]]] Despite this horrendous slump, Henry Rodriguez finished the year at .244, thanks in large part to a 32-for-76 (.421) streak early in the season. Other notable slumps included Jeff King (34-for-198, .172), Todd Zeile (26-for-132, .197), John Valentin (9-for-83, .108) [in April; from Jun 1 to Sep 13 hit .355 .415 .600 1.015] , and Rey Ordonez (17-for-114, .149, and 31-for-189, .164). Worst Slumps of the Batting Leaders Even the batting leaders [of 1997] had their share of tough times. Here's a sample of some of their worst slumps: Player Season Avg Slumps Gwynn .372 7-for-41 (.171) Walker .366 2-for-22 (.091), 8-for-49 (.163) Piazza .362 1-for-27 (.037), 5-for-40 (.125) FThomas .347 3-for-24 (.125), 9-for-51 (.176), 18-for-85 (.212) Lofton .333 2-for-29 (.069), 13-for-67 (.194) EMartinez .330 6-for-33 (.182), 13-for-57 (.228) Justice .329 3-for-27 (.111), 14-for-72 (.194) BWilliams .328 1-for-20 (.050), 4-for-34 (.118), 21-for-100 (.210) Ramirez .328 1-for-22 (.045), 9-for-46 (.196) Joyner .327 4-for-27 (.148), 9-for-45 (.200)
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Post by thursty on Sept 19, 2015 16:55:58 GMT -5
I'm not sure you can commit to him starting next year if you want to contend. Eh, remember, with his defensive ability in CF, he doesn't have to hit much to be a solid starter. If he's an 80 wRC+ guy (think .220/.300/.360 or so), he's a two win-ish player. I'm still comfortable penciling him into a starting spot. 660 OPS isn't good enough to start everyday in the majors
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Sept 19, 2015 16:57:55 GMT -5
a hit! well-placed grounder = rbi double!
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2015 17:39:17 GMT -5
Eh, remember, with his defensive ability in CF, he doesn't have to hit much to be a solid starter. If he's an 80 wRC+ guy (think .220/.300/.360 or so), he's a two win-ish player. I'm still comfortable penciling him into a starting spot. 660 OPS isn't good enough to start everyday in the majors That's just not true in this offensive environment for an elite defensive outfielder. Think 2015 Kevin Pillar (.261/.296/.371, 80 wRC+; 2.8 fWAR per 600 PAs) or career Juan Lagares (.262/.298/.367, 86 wRC+; 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs).
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 19, 2015 17:43:35 GMT -5
Eh, remember, with his defensive ability in CF, he doesn't have to hit much to be a solid starter. If he's an 80 wRC+ guy (think .220/.300/.360 or so), he's a two win-ish player. I'm still comfortable penciling him into a starting spot. 660 OPS isn't good enough to start everyday in the majors Andrelton Simmons and Billy Hamilton are both average to above-average players with < .660 OPS. Bradley will never have Hamilton's baserunning value, but being a Simmons-type player is definitely reasonable. A 30+% K rate still gives him an incredibly low floor though, so if he hits more than Hamilton than Simmons, he's not a starter. I'd pencil him in as the starting CF, but I'd like to see a decent 4th OF signed who you wouldn't hate starting, since there's not much in the minors until Margot (who won't be ready until 2017 at least, if he's not traded).
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 19, 2015 18:54:34 GMT -5
Boy did he blast that 2-run homer in the 9th! Halleluiah JBJ.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 19, 2015 19:03:19 GMT -5
Boy did he blast that 2-run homer in the 9th! Halleluiah JBJ. Steve, you are usually very positive. Stay with this guy. If he can field the way he does with hand-eye as good as he has, he can hit. He will work out the kinks. I love me some Jackie Bradley Jr. Do not trade any of our outfielders. Let them develop into the next great Sox outfield. This board to me is too short on patience. I can't wait for next year. If we can somehow jettison one of Panda or Hanley and use the savings or part thereof to sign a Kazmir or someone who will not cost draft picks or a great deal of money...hey do it. I love this team!!!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 19, 2015 19:28:49 GMT -5
Just got back from town. It was still 0-0 when I left, so it's nice to see the they won. Watching from the archive right now. The Jays' broadcasting team mentioned an interview with Dombrowski. Pitching is a priority, and the bullpen is at the top of that list, so they said . That makes sense. The guy isn't blind, and I'm sure he sees he has position players. I'll take him at his word.
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Post by thursty on Sept 19, 2015 19:33:43 GMT -5
660 OPS isn't good enough to start everyday in the majors That's just not true in this offensive environment for an elite defensive outfielder. Think 2015 Kevin Pillar (.261/.296/.371, 80 wRC+; 2.8 fWAR per 600 PAs) or career Juan Lagares (.262/.298/.367, 86 wRC+; 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs). Well, I wasn't claiming that no team has ever started a player everyday with a 660 OPS (2014 Red Sox rolled out JBJ for 4 months and Xander for 6) - it was more of a normative statement. Anyway, those are two pretty good counterpoints - if JBJ could put up Pillar-type defensive and offensive numbers, he'd be a useful player; but I think both also offer a cautionary tale. Would Pillar be playing everyday if the Blue Jays weren't the best offense by 100+ runs and there was a ready alternative? Lagares isn't playing everday; the Mets would rather play Cespedes in CF, and you can be certain that that isn't because of his defense (although to be fair I believe Lagares has been carrying an injury all year). I don't think there are many teams that are competitive that would be comfortable playing an 80+ player everyday for like 5 years straight (other than at C)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 19, 2015 19:42:50 GMT -5
Wrote this up in the Baltimore thread. Pitchers have pretty much stopped throwing to him inside. The one time they did in that series, he sent a screamer down the right-field line that was just foul. The plan, now, appears to be up and away. That's understandable since he's also tailored his swing to lift the stuff that's down on that side into left field and he did that also, though the ball was caught on the run. So he has to adjust, again. That is baseball, that is what pitchers do is probe for any weakness they can find. And that's what he's going to have to respond to if he can. This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. That's just wrong; I saw him swinging K on a high inside FB (at 89 MPH) on Wednesday Go look at the replays thursty. That"s exactly where their pitching him. That's where the bulk of Dickey's were located. That's where he got most of the strikes on the guy.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2015 19:50:35 GMT -5
That's just not true in this offensive environment for an elite defensive outfielder. Think 2015 Kevin Pillar (.261/.296/.371, 80 wRC+; 2.8 fWAR per 600 PAs) or career Juan Lagares (.262/.298/.367, 86 wRC+; 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs). Well, I wasn't claiming that no team has ever started a player everyday with a 660 OPS (2014 Red Sox rolled out JBJ for 4 months and Xander for 6) - it was more of a normative statement. Anyway, those are two pretty good counterpoints - if JBJ could put up Pillar-type defensive and offensive numbers, he'd be a useful player; but I think both also offer a cautionary tale. Would Pillar be playing everyday if the Blue Jays weren't the best offense by 100+ runs and there was a ready alternative? Lagares isn't playing everday; the Mets would rather play Cespedes in CF, and you can be certain that that isn't because of his defense (although to be fair I believe Lagares has been carrying an injury all year). I don't think there are many teams that are competitive that would be comfortable playing an 80+ player everyday for like 5 years straight (other than at C) Lagares' injury has significantly affected his defense this year, which is why he's not playing everyday, but he had been their everyday starter (when healthy) the last two years with similar aggregate offensive numbers. Anyways, other competitive teams have happily started ~80 wRC+ players for sustained periods of time if their defense made up for it (as Bradley's projects to do). Think Andrelton Simmons (career 83 wRC+), Alcides Escobar (75 wRC+ since 2011), Elvis Andrus (84 wRC+ since 2011), Didi Gregorius (career 86 wRC+), etc.
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