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Post by jmei on Aug 9, 2014 15:40:27 GMT -5
Point taken, but we need to expect guys to put up big numbers in AAA if we are to be likely to get good numbers in mlb. I accept that Bradley's AA and AAA numbers indicate a better offensive performance level than we are getting in mlb, but a .271 and a .277 average in AA and AAA is not indicative of more than a .240-250 level in mlb. We would be happy with that even but I don't think Bradley's AA and AA performance necessarily projects more than that. Zips has him at .235 and Steamer at .240. To me, Bradley's offense in AAA was not "terrific". Compare his numbers offensively to Betts at the same levels. It's no comparison, and Betts can probably be an above average CF one would think with his speed and athleticism. The bottom line is play JBJ the rest of this year to give him every chance to produce but there is not that much basis to expect he will improve that much. Yes, we of course should not assume a prospect will duplicate their AAA line when they move up to the majors, and it's fair to think that Betts might be the better player between the two. But let's not pretend Bradley didn't have much of a pedigree. Bradley had the fourth-best line in the International League last year amongst 24-and-under players, tied with Rookie of the Year Wil Myers. The fact that he did not hit as well as Betts has this year should not be used as some sort of slight. Bradley also got a lot of love from the scouting community, including winning BA's best organization hit tool, plate discipline, and defense in 2013, a combination which has historically boded very well for the prospect in question. He was ranked 31st on BA's 2013 preseason top 100 and 27th on BP's top 101. There is absolutely a basis to think that he could improve enough offensively to keep the starting job. Remember, if Bradley just hits to his very conservative ZiPS (.235/.311/.348) or Steamer (.240/.314/.360) projected lines, he's one of the better center fielders in the league, considering his Gold-Glove-caliber defense. Think Denard Span or a poor man's Michael Bourn. I know Betts is the shiny new toy, but he may well end up as a trade candidate, and even if he stays, there's no guarantee his routes in CF improve fast enough that he's the better player by ST 2015.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 9, 2014 16:34:47 GMT -5
The kid is spider man. He has this extra sense for the ball and wills himself to get it. Well, he is definitely not batman.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 9, 2014 16:39:07 GMT -5
It's not just Bradley's average, his pop is almost nonexistent also in a rather significant mlb sample size ( 466 PA ) and he is not trending up. I don't think it's shiny new toy syndrome:
Steamer projection:
Betts: wRC+ = 107 JBJ: wRC+ = 86
I personally think Bett's will even out perform the above projections. I think Betts will even be at least an average defensive CF fairly soon, probably never in JBJ's league but a good defender and he's a much better base runner. As of right now, I think Mookie is the starter in 2015.
I get that Betts is blocked but when you have a guy who is from all indications for real, as in a guy who should be a lock as a mlb starter, I'd be extremely hesitant to trade him. I think Betts is probably starting somewhere for the Redsox next year, and they seem to be grooming him for CF.
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Post by godot on Aug 9, 2014 16:47:57 GMT -5
Haven't seen much pop from him either. That was my first concern last year when he came up. Don't know if this is a function of not yet figuring out major league pitching and not comfortable at bat, actually overwhelmed by pitching. Right now he is trending to be a fourth outfielder and defensive replacement, a handy guy to have around nevertheless.
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Post by zil on Aug 9, 2014 17:01:54 GMT -5
Haven't seen much pop from him either. That was my first concern last year when he came up. Don't know if this is a function of not yet figuring out major league pitching and not comfortable at bat, actually overwhelmed by pitching. Right now he is trending to be a fourth outfielder and defensive replacement, a handy guy to have around nevertheless. His glove is good enough to make him a starting center fielder even if the bat doesn't improve. Jackie's hold on the job is only tenuous because he has Mookie Betts breathing down his neck. Mookie should be given priority, but that's a compliment to Betts' ability, not a knock on Bradley.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 9, 2014 17:04:57 GMT -5
I'd play Bradley as my starting CF if he was hitting .200/.280/.320. That's how good his glove is.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2014 17:35:23 GMT -5
Bradley has to hit better than he is to hold a starting position unless he is surrounded by really good hitters. That might become the case, but it isn't right now.
The problem is that Bradley just looks bad at the plate. His stance is all wrong. He is slow to the ball. And he has no pop. He looks like he hasn't had nearly the PAs that he has. Compare his approach with that of Betts, or Bogaerts, or even Vazquez. All three of those players are more aggressive, and appear to be more confident, than Bradley.
The Sox should be devoting some top talent to trying to fix Bradley. His fielding is so sensational that he is worth a lot of effort.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 9, 2014 18:21:56 GMT -5
He needs to be in AAA to close his holes in his swing and regain his confidence. As far as his glove being good enough to stay is a tough call. It depends on the other guys in our lineup. If we have seven or more hitters in the lineup then yes. I feel we have six productive hitters roughly. If we were contending he'd be needed as a forth outfielder and defensive replacement.
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 9, 2014 19:43:12 GMT -5
He needs to be in AAA to close his holes in his swing and regain his confidence. As far as his glove being good enough to stay is a tough call. It depends on the other guys in our lineup. If we have seven or more hitters in the lineup then yes. I feel we have six productive hitters roughly. If we were contending he'd be needed as a forth outfielder and defensive replacement. There is no need now to send him down at least until next spring it would seem to me. As I look at it he would lose an option year (this year's) if we send him down now? If the reports are true they are going after Castillo aggressively than we may need to send him down next spring at least to sort out the outfield logjam unless Jackie is just going to be the defensive outfielder with no bat for a year or two which would slow his development. www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/sox-be-agressive-pursuit-castillo
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2014 20:17:55 GMT -5
I'd play Bradley as my starting CF if he was hitting .200/.280/.320. That's how good his glove is. Even if you had an in-house alternative who hit .280/.340/.400 with average CF defense?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2014 20:24:37 GMT -5
Bradley has to hit better than he is to hold a starting position unless he is surrounded by really good hitters. That might become the case, but it isn't right now. It doesn't matter. He's not a good player hitting the way he is right now regardless of who else is around him. Just because a team is capable of carrying a terrible hitter doesn't mean that team wouldn't be better if they had more good hitters.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 9, 2014 20:46:38 GMT -5
I remember getting so mad at everyone last year who wanted him to make the team out of ST, thinking it would rush him and encourage bad habits etc. (Thought the same about Pedro ALvarez). Is that a fair "I told you so" or just hindsight?
This whole 'cant be an average MLB hitter' came out of nowhere...
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larrycook
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Post by larrycook on Aug 9, 2014 21:08:10 GMT -5
We really could have used Bradley's glove in the first inning tonight against the angels.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 9, 2014 21:23:09 GMT -5
I'd play Bradley as my starting CF if he was hitting .200/.280/.320. That's how good his glove is. Even if you had an in-house alternative who hit .280/.340/.400 with average CF defense? No doubt about it. Elite defense and below average offense>average to a little above average offense and average defense. If there was one position on the field I would want a defense on guy, it's absolutely CF. My favorite part about this whole Betts could take the spot easily thing, is the fact that we are all saying the same damn thing about JBJ just 2 years ago. Relax with that crap.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2014 21:42:17 GMT -5
Even if you had an in-house alternative who hit .280/.340/.400 with average CF defense? No doubt about it. Elite defense and below average offense>average to a little above average offense and average defense. Is it? Denard Span is hitting .304/.359/.403 this year with average defensive numbers and he's been worth 3.0 fWAR. Bradley has been worth half that even with Fangraphs giving him credit for being a +15 defender so far.
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Post by zil on Aug 9, 2014 22:04:03 GMT -5
My favorite part about this whole Betts could take the spot easily thing, is the fact that we are all saying the same damn thing about JBJ just 2 years ago. Relax with that crap. Betts is doing a whole lot better in the minors than Bradley did and at a younger age. Defense is great, but a guy with average defense and way above average offense is preferable to a guy with elite defense and way below average offense.
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 9, 2014 22:33:44 GMT -5
My favorite part about this whole Betts could take the spot easily thing, is the fact that we are all saying the same damn thing about JBJ just 2 years ago. Relax with that crap. Betts is doing a whole lot better in the minors than Bradley did and at a younger age. Defense is great, but a guy with average defense and way above average offense is preferable to a guy with elite defense and way below average offense. This is the way I feel too. I would much rather have a young Ellsbury out there than Jackie at this point. Betts, if played right could become that young Ellsbury with some extra work out there during this next year.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 9, 2014 23:17:41 GMT -5
My favorite part about this whole Betts could take the spot easily thing, is the fact that we are all saying the same damn thing about JBJ just 2 years ago. Relax with that crap. Betts is doing a whole lot better in the minors than Bradley did and at a younger age. Defense is great, but a guy with average defense and way above average offense is preferable to a guy with elite defense and way below average offense. And that is the reason why we are going to have freak out threads next year around here. People actually think Betts is going to come in and be anything more than average at the plate for a while. I mean hell, just look at Xander, he looks like a joke at the plate now a days. Just goes to show that people always think the grass is greener. Give me JBJ 100 times out of 100 next year in CF.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Aug 10, 2014 0:37:19 GMT -5
answer: yes
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Post by zil on Aug 10, 2014 0:49:20 GMT -5
And that is the reason why we are going to have freak out threads next year around here. People actually think Betts is going to come in and be anything more than average at the plate for a while. I mean hell, just look at Xander, he looks like a joke at the plate now a days. Just goes to show that people always think the grass is greener. Give me JBJ 100 times out of 100 next year in CF. You have no idea how well Betts will hit next year. He could very easily come in and tear it up.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 10, 2014 7:47:20 GMT -5
And that is the reason why we are going to have freak out threads next year around here. People actually think Betts is going to come in and be anything more than average at the plate for a while. I mean hell, just look at Xander, he looks like a joke at the plate now a days. Just goes to show that people always think the grass is greener. Give me JBJ 100 times out of 100 next year in CF. You have no idea how well Betts will hit next year. He could very easily come in and tear it up. Yeah, I think that saying something like "give me JBJ 100 times out of 100" expresses a level of confidence that shouldn't really exist. No matter how forcefully worded your forum posts are, you don't know the future. And I think it's crazy to look at a guy like Bradley who's actually been worse in the second half and not even consider the possibility that he might not be the best option next year. I also think that people are giving up on Betts as a CF way too quickly. Yeah, he makes a lot of mistakes out there, but this is a guy who basically got a crash course in playing the outfield mid-season. I don't really care how many mistakes he made, making that transition at all was impressive enough. He's never going to be JBJ, but his ceiling isn't average either. Being an elite fielder isn't as valuable when the alternative is a still a pretty good fielder.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 10, 2014 8:35:54 GMT -5
The biggest impediment to Betts being next year's CF is that he might be at 3rd or SS instead. No one has figured out how to get him out yet and I'm told that he now has that Johnny Gomes energy which will insure his insertion into the lineup.
No one knows for sure of course but isn't it probable at this point that Betts plays somewhere in the Redsox lineup in 2015?
Tito was patient with Pedroia's start in mlb but hasn't this been a lot bigger sample size now with JBJ? We all like Jackie and are rooting for him and I think he probably has a long mlb career but Betts looks better.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 10, 2014 10:37:23 GMT -5
From Cafardo's piece today which features the woes of Bradley and Bogaerts (http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/09/sunball/7blXHZq0tuwVm0pzwoTCeI/story.html). Excerpts:
Exposure can be good and bad. In Bradley Jr.’s case, it was a bad thing.
“Put it this way, at one time he would have been a featured piece in a deal, now he’d be a throw-in,” a National League adviser said about Bradley’s value. “He’s an outstanding center fielder, but there’s absolutely no sign of the hitting getting better. He can be pitched to and he doesn’t seem to have the capacity to adjust. He gets fooled with offspeed stuff and he’s getting overpowered by fastballs. The Red Sox have a tough call there. They’ve given him every opportunity.’’
Also:
Players usually show something positive in their rookie seasons. Bradley has been stellar defensively, but his hitting has been off-the-charts bad. Bogaerts hasn’t excelled in either area, though at 21 he’s the youngest Red Sox rookie starter since Ellis Burks in 1987.
Dustin Pedroia won AL Rookie of the Year hitting .317 with an .823 OPS in 2007. Jacoby Ellsbury hit .280 with 50 steals in 2008 in his rookie season. Mike Greenwell hit .328 with 19 homers and 89 RBIs with a .956 OPS in his first full season in 1987 and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. Burks, 22 at the time, hit .272 with 20 homers, 59 RBIs, and 27 steals. Is it a lack of seasoning for Bogaerts and Bradley? Hurried to the majors? Bogaerts had 225 at-bats at Triple A, Bradley 320. Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein always believed you should get 500 at-bats in Triple A.
A lot more with some comparative stats and breakdowns of their abilities with two strikes, men on, men on third, etc.
The statement about the Sox giving Bradley 'every opportunity' rings true for me. Both these guys look like, offensively, they could use more time in AAA. Neither seems to be "working it out at the MLB level" - as a lot of people here say they should do. Sometimes, improvement does need to take place at a level where they can slow things down and literally work on parts of their game. That's why the minors are known as "developmental leagues."
The article is perhaps not as comprehensive as some here would like, but one thing is clear - neither of these guys has produced at the plate compared the to players mentioned above and in the full article (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Burks, Greenwell).
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Post by jdb on Aug 10, 2014 12:22:12 GMT -5
I think with Holt coming back to earth JBJ needs to be getting the majority of starts in CF.
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Post by godot on Aug 10, 2014 12:34:16 GMT -5
You never stop learning. Can someone tell me why Bradley has such excellent defensive skills and instincts, which indicate a high level of athleticism and processing skills can not even be adequate at hitting. What are the skill differences, if any and if so, how is Bradley lacking in one and not the other? And just don't throw out examples of excellent defense players who never became good hitters. It does not explain, but perhaps suggest their is a difference.
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