SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/7-4/9 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 8, 2014 9:30:15 GMT -5
Out of 30 MLB clubs...
Sox pen is 2nd in FIP-, 4th in SIERA, 5th in WPA. Starters are 7th in FIP-, 11th in SIERA, 12th in WPA. No UZR data yet; we're in a 5-way tie for 19th in DRS.
Offense is 15th in WRC+, 29th in WPA.
We're hitting:
.323 / .390 / .425 (141 PA), bases empty, 1st in MLB in OPS+ .262 / .284 / .400 (67 PA), man on 1st, 17th in MLB in OPS+ .175 / .266 / .228 (64 PA), RISP, 27th in MLB in OPS+
Even with Victorino and now WMB out, this has been a good team, plagued by SSS crap luck.
|
|
|
Post by wildcardwillie on Apr 8, 2014 9:32:11 GMT -5
I love the guy but it seems to me Gomes should be the one traded. He has the least to offer , you could bring up someone with some speed for pinch running situations. Nava always just scares me ,but I think he will come around. Gomes is a great guy he just doesn't have the flexability that Carp does. I feel like Brentz could fill his spot.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2014 9:35:29 GMT -5
How many strikes did he get on him while bunting? None, that's the point. How? He took all the pitches just the same as he would had he not been bunting. Either that or he took more because he was bunting. Point is the bunting didn't adversely affect anything. Rosin also had been throwing strikes consistently. 19 of his 32 pitches were strikes and if you take out the 4 pitch walk to the batter in question, it's 19 of 28. The entire reasoning about the pitcher can't throw strikes was just incorrect. You may be right about bunting as a whole, but it's an effective tool in the right situations. They used it well. A weaker hitter with good bunting skills didn't force it and walked, then Bradley bunted for a base hit.. Good move to use a combo sacrifice/ bunt got a hit drag.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 8, 2014 9:42:32 GMT -5
I love the guy but it seems to me Gomes should be the one traded. He has the least to offer , you could bring up someone with some speed for pinch running situations. Nava always just scares me ,but I think he will come around. Gomes is a great guy he just doesn't have the flexability that Carp does. I feel like Brentz could fill his spot. Insofar as you actually believe that Carp has flexibility. Some people here have postulated that Gomes' -11.6 UZR/150 in LF is still barely acceptable, but Carp's -17.5 UZR/150 isn't. Interesting fact I discovered while looking up those numbers: Gomes actually has 1092? IP in RF in his career (and his UZR/150 is only slightly worse than in LF, at -14.3). But I think the main reason to trade Carp instead of Gomes would be that Gomes, as a righty, can platoon with Nava (a lefty pretending to be a switch-hitter), but Carp can't. On that note, I really hope Nava is not starting today and tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by wildcardwillie on Apr 8, 2014 9:51:10 GMT -5
I love the guy but it seems to me Gomes should be the one traded. He has the least to offer , you could bring up someone with some speed for pinch running situations. Nava always just scares me ,but I think he will come around. Gomes is a great guy he just doesn't have the flexability that Carp does. I feel like Brentz could fill his spot. Insofar as you actually believe that Carp has flexibility. Some people here have postulated that Gomes' -11.6 UZR/150 in LF is still barely acceptable, but Carp's -17.5 UZR/150 isn't. Interesting fact I discovered while looking up those numbers: Gomes actually has 1092? IP in RF in his career (and his UZR/150 is only slightly worse than in LF, at -14.3). But I think the main reason to trade Carp instead of Gomes would be that Gomes, as a righty, can platoon with Nava (a lefty pretending to be a switch-hitter), but Carp can't. On that note, I really hope Nava is not starting today and tomorrow. I was going more for carp being a left handed bat off the bench, or playing some first. really only saying could get just as much out of Brentz for less $$$. I do like Gomes though I would hang out with that guy, seems stand up to me
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 8, 2014 9:56:08 GMT -5
... Interesting fact I discovered while looking up those numbers: Gomes actually has 1092? IP in RF in his career (and his UZR/150 is only slightly worse than in LF, at -14.3). ... You don't want to go there, there bring rightfield at Fenway. This "discovery" might as well be the rotting bones on a long dead mummy. I don't want to smell that thing no way.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Apr 8, 2014 9:58:20 GMT -5
Any reports about how long Middlebrooks is down for, how bad the injury is? Speaking for myself, of course, but I sort of miss the guy after watching a few of Herrera's moves down there. He makes the hot corner just a little hotter. This the latest (from WEEI site) , and one could take " it will be some time before he does anything......" as a tad ominous: Meanwhile, there is no timetable yet for Will Middlebrooks‘ return as he continues to let his strained calf heal. While Farrell said the third baseman’s discomfort had diminished since he was placed on the disabled list on Sunday, it will be some time before he does anything more than receive treatment for the injured area.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2014 10:39:54 GMT -5
it'd be easy enough to check the average SLG in each lineup position and compare with the expected performance of the people occupying those slots in the Red Sox lineup. Assuming the following lineup: Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Sizemore, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, Herrera, Bradley Here are the 2013 AL league-average SLG by position followed by the average of the two ROS projections on Fangraphs and the difference between the two: .393 .388 -.005 .402 .425 +.023 .431 .525 +.094 .450 .470 +.020 .424 .394 -.030 .415 .423 +.008 .396 .412 +.016 .378 .322 -.056 .343 .388 +.045 So under this accounting, the Red Sox really only project to have below-average slugging at two spots in the order (one of which involves an injury replacement situation), which is not bad at all. Looks like I was wrong-- the terrific infield (especially the Pedroia/Bogaerts combo) more than makes up for the middling outfield once you list it this way. Cool, thanks for this ... if you put Sizemore in the leadoff spot, WMB at 5 and drop Nava to 8 (not an outlandish lineup, although it doesn't balance L-R very well), you'd have above avg slugging at every spot. But, to be fair, the league-average includes some at bats by the Herrera injury-replacements of the world, so it's not totally fair to only compare starters-to-average. And I think there are pretty big error bars on the projections for Nava, Sizemore, and WMB, and to a lesser extent Bogaerts.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Apr 8, 2014 10:43:54 GMT -5
Assuming the following lineup: Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Sizemore, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, Herrera, Bradley Here are the 2013 AL league-average SLG by position followed by the average of the two ROS projections on Fangraphs and the difference between the two: .393 .388 -.005 .402 .425 +.023 .431 .525 +.094 .450 .470 +.020 .424 .394 -.030 .415 .423 +.008 .396 .412 +.016 .378 .322 -.056 .343 .388 +.045 So under this accounting, the Red Sox really only project to have below-average slugging at two spots in the order (one of which involves an injury replacement situation), which is not bad at all. Looks like I was wrong-- the terrific infield (especially the Pedroia/Bogaerts combo) more than makes up for the middling outfield once you list it this way. Cool, thanks for this ... if you put Sizemore in the leadoff spot, WMB at 5 and drop Nava to 8 (not an outlandish lineup, although it doesn't balance L-R very well), you'd have above avg slugging at every spot. But, to be fair, the league-average includes some at bats by the Herrera injury-replacements of the world, so it's not totally fair to only compare starters-to-average. And I think there are pretty big error bars on the projections for Nava, Sizemore, and WMB, and to a lesser extent Bogaerts. Not to be a bum this is a nice analysis. That being said, are these slugging percentages boosted by above average batting averages at each position? How would the ISO's stack up to league average? Not asking anyone to redo the analysis, just thinking out loud....
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 8, 2014 10:50:16 GMT -5
Personally I am more upset that they didn't tell Koji to sit down after scoring the 4-1 and let Taz mop up in the 9th. Unfortunately, this will happen all season. Farrell has been on the record multiple times that if they warm Koji up, they'll use him in the game even if it's not a save situation anymore. I think the idea is that for a guy like Koji who is usually very efficient in his outings, warming up may be as strenuous as game action, so sitting him down after he gets warmed up does not really mean he's any more rested, so you might as well use him. It's a good thing to just do this, especially with a strong bullpen. That is the way the Twins used Rick Aguilera before we screwed him up. Only reason not to do that is if he has to warm forever (yeah, kinda like last night) then maybe you get someone else going.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 8, 2014 10:51:20 GMT -5
Breslow due back soon. Who goes. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't Workman ... he'll probably go down into the PawSox rotation and get stretched out for rotation depth. I think Farrell said something about NOT jerking him between the pen and the rotation this year, that once they convert him to bullpen, they'll keep him there.... but they've changed their minds before.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2014 10:55:00 GMT -5
Not to be a bum this is a nice analysis. That being said, are these slugging percentages boosted by above average batting averages at each position? How would the ISO's stack up to league average? Not asking anyone to redo the analysis, just thinking out loud.... Does it matter? ISO isn't really relevant to production. If anything, I'd be interested in it for the opposite reason; a SLG with a higher batting average is more valuable than a high ISO. Well, that's assuming the IsoD is relatively constant between the two (it's not an empty BA). To put it another way, Daniel Nava's .445 SLG last year was more valuable than Jarrod Saltalamacchia's .454 the year before, even though Salty has an ISO around .70 higher, because Nava got on base A LOT more.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 8, 2014 10:58:00 GMT -5
I considered using ISO, but we're really concerned about driving in baserunners, and in that context, slugging percentage makes more sense, I think.
Another perhaps sustainable reason they're leaving a lot of guys on: a lack of speed. Without Victorino, they have pretty much zero basestealers (Pedroia can nab an occasional one, but he's more of a pick-your-spots guy who runs only on slow pitcher/catcher batteries) and only a handful of guys you could charitably call slightly above-average on the basepaths. I don't think they're much slower than the average team, but they no longer have the luxury of Ellsbury and Victorino (both elite baserunners who were also above-average hitters) setting the table for the middle-of-the-order guys, and two of their better baserunners (Herrerra and Bradley) are middling hitters who hit lower in the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 8, 2014 11:03:45 GMT -5
it'd be easy enough to check the average SLG in each lineup position and compare with the expected performance of the people occupying those slots in the Red Sox lineup. Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Sizemore, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, Herrera, Bradley Here are the 2013 AL league-average SLG by position followed by the average of the two ROS projections on Fangraphs and the difference between the two: .393 .388 -.005 .402 .425 +.023 .431 .525 +.094 .450 .470 +.020 .424 .394 -.030 .415 .423 +.008 .396 .412 +.016 .378 .322 -.056 .343 .388 +.045 Looks like I was wrong-- the terrific infield (especially the Pedroia/Bogaerts combo) more than makes up for the middling outfield once you list it this way. You're not wrong that our OF is below average slugging though, they just generally slot into lesser spots in the batting order (lead-off and number 9). But our RF makes up for the slugging deficiency with defense (virtually required in Fenway) and base-running while our LF makes up up for it with OBP and pitches/PA And as a team, we're good at slugging due to the infield and DH as you mention. Plus we're well above average in OBP I would guess.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2014 11:21:35 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised if it wasn't Workman ... he'll probably go down into the PawSox rotation and get stretched out for rotation depth. I think Farrell said something about NOT jerking him between the pen and the rotation this year, that once they convert him to bullpen, they'll keep him there.... but they've changed their minds before. I think he said something about this late in spring training ... that, in the event of a DL stint for Breslow, they were comfortable having Workman begin the season in the major league bullpen to give some length in the early stages of the season, but they ultimately wanted him to stick in the rotation the rest of the year, or at least until much later in the year (they could have him start all summer as rotation depth, then make him a 'pen arm for the stretch run). But my memory could be faulty. And, like you said, they could change their mind on all of this, especially depending on how other guys do in Pawtucket (Webster, RDLR, Ranaudo, Britton, etc, etc)
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 8, 2014 11:42:15 GMT -5
I would be quite disappointed if they moved Workman to the pen permanently, I quite like him as a #4-#5 starter.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Apr 8, 2014 11:49:31 GMT -5
Not to be a bum this is a nice analysis. That being said, are these slugging percentages boosted by above average batting averages at each position? How would the ISO's stack up to league average? Not asking anyone to redo the analysis, just thinking out loud.... Does it matter? ISO isn't really relevant to production. If anything, I'd be interested in it for the opposite reason; a SLG with a higher batting average is more valuable than a high ISO. Well, that's assuming the IsoD is relatively constant between the two (it's not an empty BA). To put it another way, Daniel Nava's .445 SLG last year was more valuable than Jarrod Saltalamacchia's .454 the year before, even though Salty has an ISO around .70 higher, because Nava got on base A LOT more. In the context of how the discussion was started, yes I think it matters more. My impression was that we already knew the red sox are hitting relatively well overall, but seemingly can't turn the hits into runs. It was then suggested that this might be a due to a lack of power/extra basehits. If thats the case then I'd be more interested in the ISO than the overall slugging percentage.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 8, 2014 12:07:16 GMT -5
I would be quite disappointed if they moved Workman to the pen permanently, I quite like him as a #4-#5 starter. He could take peavy's spot next year. Especially if Webster isn't ready and/or Lester leaves. Lackey likely back. So that leaves one rotation spot. May have to compete with Barnes and Ranaudo.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Apr 8, 2014 12:38:03 GMT -5
I would be quite disappointed if they moved Workman to the pen permanently, I quite like him as a #4-#5 starter. He could take peavy's spot next year. Especially if Webster isn't ready and/or Lester leaves. Lackey likely back. So that leaves one rotation spot. May have to compete with Barnes and Ranaudo. If Buchholz goes off on a month+ long slump of mediocrity, I would mind seeing he and Workman switch roles.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 8, 2014 12:48:28 GMT -5
He could take peavy's spot next year. Especially if Webster isn't ready and/or Lester leaves. Lackey likely back. So that leaves one rotation spot. May have to compete with Barnes and Ranaudo. If Buchholz goes off on a month+ long slump of mediocrity, I would mind seeing he and Workman switch roles. Buchholz will be fine. He can still be an elite pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Apr 8, 2014 13:27:15 GMT -5
... Interesting fact I discovered while looking up those numbers: Gomes actually has 1092? IP in RF in his career (and his UZR/150 is only slightly worse than in LF, at -14.3). ... You don't want to go there, there bring rightfield at Fenway. This "discovery" might as well be the rotting bones on a long dead mummy. I don't want to smell that thing no way. Yes. In most ball parks the only difference between a right and left fielder is arm strength.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2014 13:34:18 GMT -5
... Interesting fact I discovered while looking up those numbers: Gomes actually has 1092? IP in RF in his career (and his UZR/150 is only slightly worse than in LF, at -14.3). ... You don't want to go there, there bring rightfield at Fenway. This "discovery" might as well be the rotting bones on a long dead mummy. I don't want to smell that thing no way. Pretty sure the bones of a long dead mummy won't smell fwiw.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 8, 2014 13:41:45 GMT -5
Yes. In most ball parks the only difference between a right and left fielder is arm strength. Whereas in Fenway arm strength is the only difference between a right and a center fielder?
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 8, 2014 13:47:25 GMT -5
I would be quite disappointed if they moved Workman to the pen permanently, I quite like him as a #4-#5 starter. quite agree. Now that I look back at it, it doesn't seem like Farrell was making a proclamation, only stating a preference. As long as the Sox feel there is another guy they can call up in the event of an injury, I can see them sending Workman down to start. But if they think he'll be the first guy on the train if someone's hurt, I'm not sure they're going to jerk him around.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 8, 2014 14:16:50 GMT -5
You don't want to go there, there bring rightfield at Fenway. This "discovery" might as well be the rotting bones on a long dead mummy. I don't want to smell that thing no way. Pretty sure the bones of a long dead mummy won't smell fwiw. Let me know when you find out.
|
|
|