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Minor League Hitters, Ranked
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2014 12:07:34 GMT -5
I'll do this roughly on the 1st and 15th of each month ...
I'm starting with TAv, according to Baseball Prospectus, and making three adjustments:
1) For opponents TAv allowed.
2) For position. SS +.014, C +.013, 2B + .006, 3B and CF, .000, RF and LF, -.011, 1B and DH, -.017. That's based on the last 10 years of MLB data, weighted 10 to 1.
3) For age relative to level. The average difference between levels is .026. However, since so many players are within a year of the "correct" age (23 in AAA, 22 in AA, 21 in A+, 20 in low-A, 19 in short-season A, 18 in rookie), the first year's difference in age is only worth half of that.
Note that the age adjustment is cruel to older guys who are hitting well in AAA and hence have a shot at an MLB bench job.
Here are the top 100 players in the minors (minimum 60 PA), with organization and BA ranking for the top 40. DC = depth chart.
Since bolding doesn't work within code, I'll point out the Sox:
Betts 1, Rijo 6, Asuaje t38, Swihart t40, Vazquez 67, Cecchini t72, Margot t76. That's an impressive showing. More Sox in the next post.
Rnk NAME TEAM LG AGE POS PA TAv Opp Net Tm Rnk
1 Mookie Betts PME EAS 21 2B 102 .401 .269 .411 Bos 7
2 Joey Gallo MYR CAR 20 3B 106 .384 .253 .404 Tex 4
3 R.A. Mondesi WIL CAR 18 SS 89 .305 .253 .391 KC 3
4 Rangel Ravelo BIR SOU 22 1B 81 .402 .257 .388 ChA 30
5 Clint Coulter WIS MID 20 C 84 .366 .261 .378 Mil 11
6 Wendell Rijo GRN SAL 18 2B 79 .336 .268 .373 Bos 18
6 Trevor Story MOD CAL 21 SS 111 .366 .267 .373 Col 9
8 Gregory Polanco IND INT 22 RF 105 .371 .264 .369 Pit 1
9 Brandon Nimmo SLU FSL 21 CF 120 .380 .272 .368 NYN 8
10 Gary Sanchez TRN EAS 21 C 85 .346 .266 .366 NYA 1
11 Micah Johnson BIR SOU 23 2B 113 .354 .250 .357 ChA 5
12 Ryan Rua FRI TEX 24 3B 89 .397 .266 .352 Tex 22
12 Will Remillard KNC MID 21 C 60 .352 .260 .352 ChN ---
14 Peter O'Brien TAM FSL 23 C 93 .371 .254 .351 NYA 23
14 Justin Bohn GRB SAL 21 SS 94 .358 .268 .351 Mia DC
16 Kris Bryant TEN SOU 22 3B 103 .340 .250 .350 ChN 2
17 Matt Reynolds BIN EAS 23 SS 88 .348 .261 .348 NYN DC
18 Jake Hager MNT SOU 21 SS 78 .326 .267 .346 TB 18
19 Oscar Taveras MEM PCL 22 LF 94 .348 .265 .345 StL 1
19 Jorge Polanco FTM FSL 20 SS 107 .321 .263 .345 Min 10
21 Chad Pinder STO CAL 22 2B 104 .360 .272 .341 Oak 15
22 J.P. Crawford LWD SAL 19 SS 99 .308 .255 .340 Phi 3
22 Franmil Reyes FTW MID 18 RF 93 .314 .262 .340 SD ---
24 Randal Grichuk MEM PCL 22 CF 94 .332 .269 .336 StL 10
24 Kyle Roller TRN EAS 26 1B 62 .449 .265 .336 NYA ---
24 Chris Taylor TAC PCL 23 SS 104 .346 .284 .336 Sea 9
24 Ryan McMahon ASH SAL 19 3B 92 .339 .276 .336 Col 8
28 Ketel Marte WTN SOU 20 SS 104 .277 .255 .335 Sea 20
28 Mar. Littlewood CLN MID 22 C 62 .347 .246 .335 Sea DC
30 Jesus Aguilar COH INT 24 1B 100 .371 .267 .334 Cle 15
31 Sebas. Elizalde DYT MID 22 1B 93 .374 .246 .332 Cin 26
31 Dalton Pompey DUN FSL 21 CF 110 .333 .261 .332 Tex 17
33 Joc Pederson ABQ PCL 22 CF 114 .330 .272 .331 LAN 1
33 Jose Ramirez COH INT 21 2B 105 .296 .270 .331 Cle 9
35 George Springer OKL PCL 24 RF 61 .379 .285 .330 Hou 2
35 Jon Singleton OKL PCL 22 1B 114 .352 .278 .330 Hou 7
35 Francis. Lindor AKR EAS 20 SS 100 .283 .266 .330 Cle 1
38 Carlos Asuaje GRN SAL 22 3B 89 .378 .270 .329 Bos ---
38 Jesse Winker BAK CAL 20 LF 92 .339 .272 .329 Cin 4
40 Blake Swihart PME EAS 22 C 73 .338 .283 .328 Bos 5
40 Patrick Valaika ASH SAL 21 SS 78 .330 .263 .328 Col ---
42 Deli. DeShields CCH TEX 21 CF 67 .295 .241 .327
42 Dan Robertson STO CAL 20 SS 113 .313 .273 .327
44 Eugenio Suarez ERI EAS 22 SS 90 .309 .257 .326
45 Carson Kelly PEO MID 19 C 80 .286 .248 .324
46 Austin Wates OKL PCL 25 CF 67 .386 .284 .323
47 Corey Seager RCU CAL 20 SS 92 .305 .270 .322
47 Kean Wong BGR MID 19 2B 85 .295 .252 .322
49 Max Stassi OKL PCL 23 C 95 .316 .268 .321
49 Curtis Casali MNT SOU 25 C 85 .376 .263 .321
49 Billy McKinney STO CAL 19 CF 116 .285 .263 .321
52 Mike Ford CSC SAL 21 1B 83 .364 .274 .320
52 Herschel Powell BLT MID 21 CF 109 .327 .254 .320
54 Francisco Pena OMA PCL 24 C 60 .314 .255 .319
54 Juan Silverio PEN SOU 23 3B 80 .327 .255 .319
56 Carlton Daal DYT MID 20 SS 85 .290 .246 .318
56 Carlos Correa LNC CAL 19 SS 93 .272 .267 .318
58 Tyler Ladendorf SAC PCL 26 SS 79 .381 .273 .317
58 Ronald Torreyes OKL PCL 21 2B 101 .290 .278 .317
58 Courtn. Hawkins WNS CAR 20 LF 95 .309 .254 .317
61 Kyle Waldrop BAK CAL 22 RF 115 .354 .274 .316
62 Patrick Leonard PCH FSL 21 1B 96 .338 .266 .315
62 Orlando Arcia BRV FSL 19 SS 108 .249 .247 .315
64 Tyrone Taylor BRV FSL 20 CF 108 .284 .243 .314
64 Jeff McNeil SAV SAL 22 3B 101 .375 .282 .314
66 Juan Herrera PEO MID 21 SS 72 .302 .250 .313
67 Christ. Vazquez PAW INT 23 C 80 .278 .239 .312
67 Anthony Kemp LNC CAL 22 2B 122 .318 .259 .312
67 Donald Lutz PEN SOU 25 LF 79 .391 .263 .312
70 Emilio Guerrero DUN FSL 21 SS 77 .288 .252 .310
70 Ramon Flores SWB INT 22 RF 99 .293 .245 .310
72 Garin Cecchini PAW INT 23 3B 90 .292 .243 .309
72 Tyler Goeddel PCH FSL 21 3B 92 .318 .269 .309
72 Jav. Betancourt WMI MID 19 2B 115 .276 .246 .309
72 Giovan. Urshela AKR EAS 22 3B 93 .309 .260 .309
76 Tommy Joseph REA EAS 22 C 63 .304 .269 .308
76 Andr. Velazquez SBN MID 19 SS 109 .270 .249 .308
76 Cameron Perkins REA EAS 23 LF 93 .345 .273 .308
76 Yorm. Rodriguez PEN SOU 21 CF 83 .293 .258 .308
76 Miguel Andujar CSC SAL 19 3B 91 .311 .276 .308
76 Manuel Margot GRN SAL 19 CF 84 .305 .270 .308
82 Angel Ortega WIS MID 20 SS 73 .292 .259 .307
82 Dwight Smith DUN FSL 21 LF 111 .317 .259 .307
82 Gabri. Guerrero HDS CAL 20 RF 112 .303 .258 .307
85 Royce Bolinger MYR CAR 23 RF 88 .345 .249 .306
85 Elias Diaz ALT EAS 23 C 62 .323 .277 .306
85 Travis Harrison FTM FSL 21 LF 95 .321 .264 .306
88 Marco Hernandez DAY FSL 21 SS 84 .264 .233 .305
89 Mike Benjamin ASH SAL 22 2B 89 .349 .272 .304
89 Ronard Castillo PEO MID 22 RF 86 .337 .243 .304
89 Ryan Brett MNT SOU 22 2B 96 .299 .261 .304
89 Eric Haase LKC MID 21 C 78 .291 .247 .304
93 Cristhi. Adames TUL TEX 22 SS 76 .292 .263 .303
93 Will. Astudillo LWD SAL 22 1B 65 .358 .259 .303
95 Aaron Judge CSC SAL 22 RF 95 .373 .281 .302
96 Domingo Santana OKL PCL 21 LF 110 .288 .275 .301
97 Chesl. Cuthbert NWA TEX 21 3B 81 .274 .247 .300
97 Fernando Perez FTW MID 20 2B 93 .301 .267 .300
99 Michael Reed BRV FSL 21 RF 100 .296 .246 .299
99 T Michalczewski KAN SAL 19 3B 100 .286 .260 .299
99 J.D. Martinez TOL INT 26 LF 71 .376 .261 .299
99 Johnny Field BGR MID 22 CF 101 .335 .257 .299
99 Greg Garcia MEM PCL 24 2B 99 .317 .271 .299
99 Preston Tucker CCH TEX 23 RF 111 .311 .248 .299
Of the top 40 guys who were not even on BA's depth chart ...
Remillard was the Cubs' 19th round pick last year, didn't play, and just barely has enough PA to qualify.
Reyes was a weird oversight for the Padres' chart. He was one of the youngest players for his level last year.
Roller is the one obviously too-old guy who (thanks to just barely qualifying) is having such an insane year that he didn't get adjusted off the chart.
Asuaje you know about it, and probably ranks as the top legitimate possible breakout guy in the minors, along with ...
Valiaka, the Rockie's 9th round pick, who did nothing in rookie ball last year but is raking in low-A.
Next up: Sox.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2014 12:43:29 GMT -5
Here are all the Sox prospects above .240, including Xander (who would rank 11th on the earlier list, despite his apparent difficulty with cold weather power).
NAME TEAM AGE PA POS TAv Opp Net
Mookie Betts PME 21 102 2B .401 .269 .411
Wendell Rijo GRN 18 79 2B .336 .268 .373
Xander Bogaerts BOS 21 106 SS .283 .262 .360
Carlos Asuaje GRN 22 89 3B .378 .270 .329
Blake Swihart PME 22 73 C .338 .283 .328
Chris. Vazquez PAW 23 80 C .278 .239 .312
Garin Cecchini PAW 23 90 3B .292 .243 .309
Manuel Margot GRN 19 84 CF .305 .270 .308
Deven Marrero PME 23 70 SS .290 .272 .279
Reed Gragnani SLM 23 73 2B .311 .265 .273
Sean Coyle PME 22 64 3B .292 .281 .271
Kevin Heller SLM 24 80 RF .339 .255 .268
Tzu-Wei Lin GRN 20 88 SS .249 .261 .262
Coyle would be.277 if he'd been able to play 2B.
Our top 6 position player prospects (BA ranking) are all in the top 100 in MLB. #7, Brentz, got off to a slow start, but our #8, Rijo, is 6th in the minors. #8, Devers and #11, Guerra, are yet to debut, #9 and #10, Butler and Shaw have stared slow,but #12 and #13, Lin and Coyle, are playing well. You really can't ask for much more.
Whether Gragnani and Heller are actually of interest is another question.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 5, 2014 11:29:50 GMT -5
It's all the more impressive when you consider that coming into the season, I think the general consensus was that our pitching was way ahead of the position players.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2014 15:48:27 GMT -5
It's all the more impressive when you consider that coming into the season, I think the general consensus was that our pitching was way ahead of the position players. Furthermore, Travis Shaw (.426 / .478 / .721 in his last 15 games) has gone from .217 to .250 in one freaking week. (Two weeks ago, he was probably close to zero.) As a 1B who is 24 in AA, he's never going to rank high by this methodology, but .240 is the bar where guys project to be MLB bench players, and the closer a guy is to MLB with a number above that, the more credence it has. Oh, and even better: Henry Ramos (.230 / .266 / .262 in his first 16 games, .439 / .465 / .610 in his last 10) has gone from .215 to .252 in the last week. |
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Post by godot on May 5, 2014 16:32:41 GMT -5
A lot of work there, Eric, impressive stuff. Thanks. The guys I am curious about are Marrero and Cecchini, just from amateur observation . Marrero seemed like he should hit better than he has (before Portland), and Cecchini may hit less than he has in the majors. This is crude and just base on their swing, approach, and body type, so probably missing something. What is your take?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2014 2:51:02 GMT -5
I'm curious as to why there's such a gap between Mookie and Gregory Polanco in TAv. Polanco is a level higher, only a year older, plays an excellent center field and is also putting up video game numbers. What factor is dragging him back ?
I see you have him as a RF. I've only seen him at his natural position, CF, but they might be grooming him for RF since he's not likely to move Cutch from CF when the Pirates promote him (he's got a plus arm, a former pitcher). But still a bigger gap than I would have anticipated including the .11 adjustment)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2014 3:56:43 GMT -5
I'm curious as to why there's such a gap between Mookie and Gregory Polanco in TAv. Polanco is a level higher, only a year older, plays an excellent center field and is also putting up video game numbers. What factor is dragging him back ? I see you have him as a RF. I've only seen him at his natural position, CF, but they might be grooming him for RF since he's not likely to move Cutch from CF when the Pirates promote him (he's got a plus arm, a former pitcher). But still a bigger gap than I would have anticipated including the .11 adjustment) Polanco hasn't played an inning in CF this year, as they prep him to take over RF in Pittsburgh. In terms of talent, and value to another club, he indeed deserves another .011, and would rank 5th instead of 8th. I wish I had the time to identify all the guys like Polanco and our own Sean Coyle and override the position data I'm grabbing, but I don't! (The one other guy I'm aware of is the Reds Sebastian Elizalde, a CF who is playing 1B because he's recovering from TJ surgery. He'd be 17th instead of 31st if I made that adjustment.) I may start making these adjustments anyway, as I discover them ... To return to your question, most of the difference is just the baseline TAv, which differ by .030. Realize that TAv is both park- and league-adjusted. At the time I was running these numbers, Polanco was at .400 / .457 / .632, with 4 SB and 4 CS, and 1 GDP. That OBP and SA correspond to a .368 TAv, which would be reduced by the SB / CS, and since he had a .371 TAv, he was getting a bit of a park / league boost. Mookie at the time was at .422 / .471 / .689, with 10 SB and 2 CS, and 2 GDP. That OBP and SA yield a .387 TAv. He actually had a .401, so the .014 difference is a combination of the base-stealing and park and league adjustments. So: Raw numbers, basic hitting line, Mookie +.019 Position actually played, Mookie +.017 (by best position, Mookie +.006) SB/CS, GDP, and park and league adjustments, Mookie +.011 Quality of opposition, Polanco +.005 Hence Mookie's .042 edge, which is really .031 in terms of trade value. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2014 4:14:28 GMT -5
Thx. That clarifies for me the factors which go into the initial TAv.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2014 4:19:18 GMT -5
A lot of work there, Eric, impressive stuff. Thanks. The guys I am curious about are Marrero and Cecchini, just from amateur observation . Marrero seemed like he should hit better than he has (before Portland), and Cecchini may hit less than he has in the majors. This is crude and just base on their swing, approach, and body type, so probably missing something. What is your take? I have no real opinion on Marrero at the plate; I'm agnostic about the hot start as a small sample. I've seen Cecchini flash power in last year's AFL All-Star game, and I think he may be an ideal Fenway hitter, so I'm high on him as a 3B or LF. I think he'd be equally as valuable at either position, but the latter would mean Mookie in CF and JBJ in RF. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2014 5:23:40 GMT -5
I'm not so sure that Cecchini will actually be an ideal Fenway hitter. Not that he couldn't be but his approach to me is up the middle not pulling the ball and going opposite field.
ADD: Maybe that would change with the wall looming, I've always thought Pawtucket should have an imitation Monster.
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Post by godot on May 6, 2014 8:00:53 GMT -5
Encouraging about Cecchini. As for Marrero I wonder how much of his good start is related to being in that lineup. He is hitting behind Mookie.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2014 8:37:17 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2014 9:27:36 GMT -5
A lot of work there, Eric, impressive stuff. Thanks. The guys I am curious about are Marrero and Cecchini, just from amateur observation . Marrero seemed like he should hit better than he has (before Portland), and Cecchini may hit less than he has in the majors. This is crude and just base on their swing, approach, and body type, so probably missing something. What is your take? I have no real opinion on Marrero at the plate; I'm agnostic about the hot start as a small sample. I've seen Cecchini flash power in last year's AFL All-Star game, and I think he may be an ideal Fenway hitter, so I'm high on him as a 3B or LF. I think he'd be equally as valuable at either position, but the latter would mean Mookie in CF and JBJ in RF. I'm starting to get concerned about Cecchini. He's either got to almost double his ISO or cut his K-rate to about 10-12%. He's not going to walk enough if he's not either hitting for power or have a very high contact%. He might never even be as good as Nava, but maybe my hopes are too high in the first place. Maybe the weather just has to warm up. I do wish he'd hit more fly balls. |
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2014 14:13:19 GMT -5
I have no real opinion on Marrero at the plate; I'm agnostic about the hot start as a small sample. I've seen Cecchini flash power in last year's AFL All-Star game, and I think he may be an ideal Fenway hitter, so I'm high on him as a 3B or LF. I think he'd be equally as valuable at either position, but the latter would mean Mookie in CF and JBJ in RF. I'm starting to get concerned about Cecchini. He's either got to almost double his ISO or cut his K-rate to about 10-12%. He's not going to walk enough if he's not either hitting for power or have a very high contact%. He might never even be as good as Nava, but maybe my hopes are too high in the first place. Maybe the weather just has to warm up. I do wish he'd hit more fly balls. Had some fun playing with Fangraphs custom reports. Basically, there are 10 players with an ISO of less than .130 and a K rate above 15% that are above a 110 wRC+ in the history of baseball. 6 of them are from before 1950. I guess it would be better if I could figure out how to do this for peak seasons. That won't cut it as a starter for us unless he's an elite defender at a premium position which he isn't going to be. So he either has to cut that K rate or bring up that ISO. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2014 15:20:43 GMT -5
I'll have a new top 100 in a couple of hours, but here are some Sox rankings ...
Your Mookie remains in first place, at .393, .001 ahead of Joey Gallo.
Wendell Rijo moves up from #6 to #5.
Blake Swihart moves up from 40 to 31.
Carlos Asauje moves up from a tie for 38 to a tie for 33.
Garin Cecchini drops from t72 to t82.
Christian Vazquez, t67 two weeks ago, falls off the chart to about 180. That's still real good, of course.
Manny Margot, t76 two weeks ago, also falls off, but only to about 132.
Deven Marrero moves onto the chart, tied for 88th.
And welcome Hammerin' Henry Ramos in a 3-way tie for 98th.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2014 16:46:05 GMT -5
Here's the top 100 through yesterday's games. Comments to follow.
Rnk Lst NAME TEAM LG AGE POS PA TAv Opp Net Tm Rnk
1 1 Mookie Betts PME EAS 21 2B 169 .377 .263 .393 Bos 7
2 2 Joey Gallo MYR CAR 20 3B 168 .368 .249 .392 Tex 4
3 22 J.P. Crawford LWD SAL 19 SS 153 .332 .258 .361 Phi 3
4 6 Trevor Story MOD CAL 21 SS 162 .354 .270 .358 Col 9
5 6 Wendell Rijo GRN SAL 18 2B 132 .320 .268 .357 Bos 18
6 8 Gregory Polanco IND INT 22 RF 172 .353 .260 .355 Pit 1
7 24 Randal Grichuk 2TMS P/N 22 CF 144 .383 .282 .353 StL 10
8 16 Kris Bryant TEN SOU 22 3B 173 .353 .265 .348 ChN 2
9 33 Joc Pederson ABQ PCL 22 CF 179 .353 .279 .347 LAN 1
10 5 Clint Coulter WIS MID 20 C 155 .337 .264 .346 Mil 11
11 --- Willy Adames WMI MID 18 SS 122 .291 .259 .345 Det 30
12 4 Rangel Ravelo BIR SOU 22 1B 144 .355 .254 .344 ChA 30
13 3 R.A. Mondesi WIL CAR 18 SS 142 .253 .251 .341 KC 3
14 28 Ketel Marte WTN SOU 20 SS 156 .287 .260 .340 Sea 20
15 14 Peter O'Brien 2TMS F/E 23 C 146 .354 .247 .338 NYA 23
16 35 Francis. Lindor AKR EAS 20 SS 159 .295 .274 .334 Cle 1
17 --- Victor Reyes ROM SAL 19 RF 140 .324 .255 .331 Atl 14
17 --- Elmer Reyes MIS SOU 23 SS 104 .338 .268 .331 Atl DC
17 21 Chad Pinder STO CAL 22 2B 126 .350 .272 .331 Oak 15
20 47 Corey Seager RCU CAL 20 SS 147 .320 .277 .330 LAN 2
21 9 Brandon Nimmo SLU FSL 21 CF 187 .334 .265 .329 NYN 8
21 99 Michael Reed BRV FSL 21 RF 150 .335 .255 .329 Mil DC
23 52 Herschel Powell BLT MID 21 CF 162 .336 .255 .328 Oak ---
23 24 Chris Taylor TAC PCL 23 SS 162 .329 .275 .328 Sea 9
25 --- Jacob Realmuto JAX SOU 23 C 132 .336 .269 .327 Mia 10
26 14 Justin Bohn GRB SAL 21 SS 127 .339 .274 .326 Mia DC
27 35 Jon. Singleton OKL PCL 22 1B 171 .340 .271 .325 Hou 7
28 72 Tyler Goeddel PCH FSL 21 3B 147 .329 .266 .323 TB 22
28 --- Abiatal Avelino CSC SAL 19 SS 131 .311 .275 .323 NYA 12
28 96 Domingo Santana OKL PCL 21 LF 167 .305 .270 .323 Hou 8
31 40 Blake Swihart PME EAS 22 C 117 .316 .267 .322 Bos 5
32 --- Paul Hendrix LKC MID 22 3B 120 .347 .247 .321 Cle DC
33 38 Carlos Asuaje GRN SAL 22 3B 141 .364 .265 .320 Bos ---
33 --- Jabari Henry HDS CAL 23 CF 109 .354 .255 .320 Sea DC
35 31 Dalton Pompey DUN FSL 21 CF 166 .322 .263 .319 Tex 17
35 89 Eric Haase LKC MID 21 C 124 .302 .243 .319 Cle DC
35 22 Franmil Reyes FTW MID 18 RF 148 .292 .261 .319 SD ---
35 42 Dan. Robertson STO CAL 20 SS 186 .303 .271 .319 Oak 10
39 19 Jorge Polanco FTM FSL 20 SS 167 .288 .257 .318 Min 10
39 47 Kean Wong BGR MID 19 2B 136 .290 .251 .318 TB DC
39 67 Anthony Kemp LNC CAL 22 2B 192 .327 .262 .318 Hou DC
39 --- Tomas Telis FRI TEX 23 C 101 .327 .269 .318 Tex DC
43 62 Patrick Leonard PCH FSL 21 1B 145 .333 .259 .317 TB DC
44 --- Austin Hedges SAN TEX 21 C 137 .282 .252 .316 SD 1
44 18 Jake Hager MNT SOU 21 SS 126 .291 .262 .316 TB 18
46 --- Rougned Odor 2TMS T/A 20 2B 161 .279 .268 .315 Tex 1
47 11 Micah Johnson 2TMS S/I 23 2B 179 .321 .255 .315 ChA 5
48 10 Gary Sanchez TRN EAS 21 C 142 .295 .266 .315 NYA 1
49 64 Tyrone Taylor BRV FSL 20 CF 168 .292 .251 .314 Mil 2
49 12 Will Remillard KNC MID 21 C 102 .314 .260 .314 ChN ---
51 49 Billy McKinney STO CAL 19 CF 170 .282 .268 .313 Oak 2
51 --- Kennys Vargas NBR EAS 23 1B 156 .345 .262 .313 Min 20
53 19 Oscar Taveras MEM PCL 22 LF 158 .322 .272 .312 StL 1
53 56 Carlos Correa LNC CAL 19 SS 152 .266 .267 .312 Hou 1
55 --- Brett Phillips QUD MID 20 CF 156 .322 .272 .310 Hou 30
56 33 Jose Ramirez 2TMS I/A 21 2B 122 .296 .266 .310 Cle 9
57 24 Ryan McMahon ASH SAL 19 3B 154 .308 .276 .305 Col 8
57 58 Ronald Torreyes OKL PCL 21 2B 150 .270 .270 .305 Hou DC
59 49 Curtis Casali 2TMS S/I 25 C 124 .365 .260 .305 TB 29
60 76 Andr. Velazquez SBN MID 19 SS 172 .282 .265 .304 Ari 28
60 --- Jose Rondon SBR CAL 20 SS 171 .279 .262 .304 LAA 12
62 44 Eugenio Suarez ERI EAS 22 SS 149 .292 .263 .303 Det 7
62 58 Courtn. Hawkins WNS CAR 20 LF 141 .286 .245 .303 ChA 6
62 97 Chesl. Cuthbert NWA TEX 21 3B 129 .284 .254 .303 KC 14
62 --- Clint Frazier LKC MID 19 CF 124 .273 .243 .303 Cle 2
62 62 Orlando Arcia BRV FSL 19 SS 165 .244 .254 .303 Mil 7
62 28 Mar. Littlewood CLN MID 22 C 104 .335 .266 .303 Sea DC
62 42 Deli. DeShields CCH TEX 21 CF 105 .283 .253 .303 Hou 13
69 72 Giovan. Urshela 2TMS E/I 22 3B 147 .310 .263 .303 Cle DC
70 --- Michael Taylor HAR EAS 23 CF 139 .316 .261 .302 Was 7
71 89 Ryan Brett MNT SOU 22 2B 148 .290 .255 .301 TB 8
71 31 Sebas. Elizalde DYT MID 22 1B 113 .356 .259 .301 Cin 26
71 --- Shawn Zarraga HUN SOU 25 C 103 .367 .274 .301 Mil DC
71 --- Stephen Bruno TEN SOU 23 2B 149 .317 .269 .301 ChN DC
71 52 Mike Ford CSC SAL 21 1B 142 .341 .270 .301 NYA ---
71 17 Matt Reynolds BIN EAS 23 SS 141 .305 .265 .301 NYN DC
71 --- Jose Munoz SBN MID 20 3B 125 .307 .266 .301 Ari 26
78 --- Victor Caratini ROM SAL 20 C 135 .286 .259 .300 Mil 8
79 --- Mitch Nay LNS MID 20 3B 167 .296 .257 .299 Tor 4
79 38 Jesse Winker BAK CAL 20 LF 121 .313 .276 .299 Cin 4
81 --- Jake Cave TAM FSL 21 CF 173 .290 .252 .298 NYA 22
81 --- Alen Hanson ALT EAS 21 SS 157 .282 .271 .298 Pit 6
81 --- Chris McFarland WIS MID 21 2B 154 .312 .267 .298 Mil DC
81 72 Garin Cecchini PAW INT 23 3B 145 .288 .250 .298 Bos 6
81 --- Tyler O'Neill CLN MID 19 LF 135 .300 .264 .298 Sea 18
81 --- Grand. Goetzman BGR MID 21 LF 146 .317 .255 .298 TB DC
87 --- Teos. Hernandez LNC CAL 21 CF 178 .302 .265 .297 Hou 16
87 --- Deven Marrero PME EAS 23 SS 136 .300 .264 .297 Bos 15
87 97 Fernando Perez FTW MID 20 2B 150 .297 .266 .297 SD DC
87 --- Kyle Kubitza MIS SOU 23 3B 138 .317 .267 .297 Atl 22
91 --- Matt Olson STO CAL 20 1B 177 .312 .272 .296 Oak 12
91 --- Jamie Westbrook SBN MID 19 2B 170 .284 .267 .296 Ari 27
91 --- Jose Peraza LYN CAR 20 2B 167 .267 .250 .296 Atl 6
91 56 Carlton Daal DYT MID 20 SS 136 .275 .253 .296 Cin DC
91 --- Maxwell Muncy MID TEX 23 1B 130 .328 .262 .296 Oak 7
91 --- Joey Curletta GRL MID 20 RF 171 .317 .270 .296 LAN DC
97 --- Glynn Davis FRD CAR 22 CF 157 .296 .248 .295 Bal 29
97 --- Henry Ramos PME EAS 22 RF 147 .315 .269 .295 Bos DC
97 --- James McCann TOL INT 24 C 129 .285 .250 .295 Det 11
100 --- Trav. Demeritte HIC SAL 19 2B 137 .268 .253 .294 Tex 8
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 16, 2014 23:38:16 GMT -5
Some observations...
If you gave Polanco the 11 points for being a RF out of position, the rankings would be Betts, Gallo, Polanco, the very three who are getting the lion's share of MiLB ink.
The emergence of Vargas on the list is interesting for a few reasons. He's a switch hitter that from the left side, looks so much like Papi that Papi started mentoring him this past off season and says that Vargas is a better hitter than he was at the same age. I've seen him in several games and he's impressive but 'only' a first baseman.
Swihart is pulling away from Sanchez. Earlier the rankings were reversed. I've seen a lot of both and they are both impressive. Sanchez is a lot bigger than Swihart and to me, right now, the difference between the two as prospects (in a general sense) is that Sanchez is athletic for his size whereas Swihart doesn't have the for his size qualifier. Swihart also appears to be taking a significantly bigger leader role but being honest, I can't say I've seen enough of Sanchez to be critical of him for that.I also don't understand why the MFY have both Sanchez and O'Brien together. They should promote Sanchez.
Love to see Ramos on the list. From everything I've seen, he's on the verge of being considered a top prospect on both sides of the ball. There are things to work on but the potential is nice to see.
Also interesting (to me) that Marrero, same age, has a higher base TAv than Garin Cecchini given Deven's defensive prowess.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2014 6:25:24 GMT -5
Some observations... If you gave Polanco the 11 points for being a RF out of position, the rankings would be Betts, Gallo, Polanco, the very three who are getting the lion's share of MiLB ink. I originally gave him that, until I realized it would screw up my comparisons to the first ranking. That's entirely because there's a .014 difference in the TAv allowed of the pitchers they've faced. Including that adjustment is one of the advantages of this ranking. Cecchni's numbers would be much more impressive if he'd faced merely average pitching: rather than .306 / .400 / .379, something like .317 / .415 / .395. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 17, 2014 7:10:07 GMT -5
Randal Grichuk is interesting. Only 22 and has been in three organizations. Angels, Rangers and now Cardinals. Apparently he was a RF until this year. Plays in the PCL (Memphis must have moved west) but as you said TAv is league adjusted.
ADD: But even after all the adjustments you could make the case that the difference in their defense has been greater than the difference in their offense and therefore, based on this year, Marrero is performing better overall than Cecchini.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 17, 2014 7:15:04 GMT -5
Here's the current Top 100, ranked by how they performed since the previous report. You can see in the last two columns how consistent or inconsistent guys have been. It'll be interesting to see how consistency predicts future performance.
Edit: there are only 31 players who were on the previous list and had a .297 (the current list minimum) over the last 2 weeks. They include Betts, Swihart, Rijo, and Asauje.
Note that the first report had a minimum PA of 60 and average of 92, while this one has 100 and 147. So the first sample was quite a bit larger.
Rnk Lst NAME TEAM LG AGE POS Net Tm Rnk Was This
44 --- Austin Hedges SAN TEX 21 C .316 SD 1 .234 .442
46 --- Rougned Odor 2TMS T/A 20 2B .315 Tex 1 .262 .421
91 --- Maxwell Muncy MID TEX 23 1B .296 Oak 7 .275 .419
97 --- Henry Ramos PME EAS 22 RF .295 Bos DC .215 .418
17 --- Victor Reyes ROM SAL 19 RF .331 Atl 14 .292 .411
3 22 J.P. Crawford LWD SAL 19 SS .361 Phi 3 .340 .400
25 --- Jacob Realmuto JAX SOU 23 C .327 Mia 10 .288 .398
71 --- Stephen Bruno TEN SOU 23 2B .301 ChN DC .241 .390
21 99 Michael Reed BRV FSL 21 RF .329 Mil DC .299 .389
7 24 Randal Grichuk 2TMS P/N 22 CF .353 StL 10 .336 .384
28 --- Abiatal Avelino CSC SAL 19 SS .323 NYA 12 .298 .384
87 --- Kyle Kubitza MIS SOU 23 3B .297 Atl 22 .239 .382
60 --- Jose Rondon SBR CAL 20 SS .304 LAA 12 .250 .382
9 33 Joc Pederson ABQ PCL 22 CF .347 LAN 1 .331 .375
81 --- Alen Hanson ALT EAS 21 SS .298 Pit 6 .250 .372
2 2 Joey Gallo MYR CAR 20 3B .392 Tex 4 .404 .371
1 1 Mookie Betts PME EAS 21 2B .393 Bos 7 .411 .366
28 96 Domingo Santana OKL PCL 21 LF .323 Hou 8 .301 .365
87 --- Teos. Hernandez LNC CAL 21 CF .297 Hou 16 .270 .351
14 28 Ketel Marte WTN SOU 20 SS .340 Sea 20 .335 .350
51 --- Kennys Vargas NBR EAS 23 1B .313 Min 20 .288 .348
28 72 Tyler Goeddel PCH FSL 21 3B .323 TB 22 .309 .346
8 16 Kris Bryant TEN SOU 22 3B .348 ChN 2 .350 .345
23 52 Herschel Powell BLT MID 21 CF .328 Oak --- .320 .344
35 89 Eric Haase LKC MID 21 C .319 Cle DC .304 .344
97 --- James McCann TOL INT 24 C .295 Det 11 .262 .344
20 47 Corey Seager RCU CAL 20 SS .330 LAN 2 .322 .343
91 --- Matt Olson STO CAL 20 1B .296 Oak 12 .270 .342
16 35 Franc. Lindor AKR EAS 20 SS .334 Cle 1 .330 .341
55 --- Brett Phillips QUD MID 20 CF .310 Hou 30 .293 .336
81 --- Jake Cave TAM FSL 21 CF .298 NYA 22 .276 .335
5 6 Wendell Rijo GRN SAL 18 2B .357 Bos 18 .373 .333
6 8 Gregory Polanco IND INT 22 RF .355 Pit 1 .369 .333
81 --- Grand. Goetzman BGR MID 21 LF .298 TB DC .279 .329
91 --- Joey Curletta GRL MID 20 RF .296 LAN DC .275 .329
39 67 Anthony Kemp LNC CAL 22 2B .318 Hou DC .312 .328
81 --- Chris McFarland WIS MID 21 2B .298 Mil DC .273 .326
4 6 Trevor Story MOD CAL 21 SS .358 Col 9 .373 .325
100 --- Trav. Demeritte HIC SAL 19 2B .294 Tex 8 .277 .324
79 --- Mitch Nay LNS MID 20 3B .299 Tor 4 .280 .323
43 62 Patrick Leonard PCH FSL 21 1B .317 TB DC .315 .321
71 --- Jose Munoz SBN MID 20 3B .301 Ari 26 .287 .318
91 --- Jose Peraza LYN CAR 20 2B .296 Atl 6 .283 .317
87 --- Deven Marrero PME EAS 23 SS .297 Bos 15 .279 .316
70 --- Michael Taylor HAR EAS 23 CF .302 Was 7 .296 .316
81 --- Tyler O'Neill CLN MID 19 LF .298 Sea 18 .287 .316
15 14 Peter O'Brien 2TMS F/E 23 C .338 NYA 23 .351 .315
27 35 Jon Singleton OKL PCL 22 1B .325 Hou 7 .330 .315
49 64 Tyrone Taylor BRV FSL 20 CF .314 Mil 2 .314 .314
23 24 Chris Taylor TAC PCL 23 SS .328 Sea 9 .336 .314
31 40 Blake Swihart PME EAS 22 C .322 Bos 5 .328 .312
39 47 Kean Wong BGR MID 19 2B .318 TB DC .322 .311
10 5 Clint Coulter WIS MID 20 C .346 Mil 11 .378 .308
62 97 Ches. Cuthbert NWA TEX 21 3B .303 KC 14 .300 .308
97 --- Glynn Davis FRD CAR 22 CF .295 Bal 29 .287 .307
35 42 Dan Robertson STO CAL 20 SS .319 Oak 10 .327 .307
33 38 Carlos Asuaje GRN SAL 22 3B .320 Bos --- .329 .305
78 --- Victor Caratini ROM SAL 20 C .300 Mil 8 .298 .304
53 56 Carlos Correa LNC CAL 19 SS .312 Hou 1 .318 .303
60 76 Andr. Velazquez SBN MID 19 SS .304 Ari 28 .308 .297
91 --- Jamie Westbrook SBN MID 19 2B .296 Ari 27 .296 .296
51 49 Billy McKinney STO CAL 19 CF .313 Oak 2 .321 .296
71 89 Ryan Brett MNT SOU 22 2B .301 TB 8 .304 .295
35 31 Dalton Pompey DUN FSL 21 CF .319 Tex 17 .332 .293
87 97 Fernando Perez FTW MID 20 2B .297 SD DC .300 .292
69 72 Giovan. Urshela 2TMS E/I 22 3B .303 Cle DC .309 .292
12 4 Rangel Ravelo BIR SOU 22 1B .344 ChA 30 .388 .287
17 21 Chad Pinder STO CAL 22 2B .331 Oak 15 .341 .284
35 22 Franmil Reyes FTW MID 18 RF .319 SD --- .340 .283
57 58 Ronald Torreyes OKL PCL 21 2B .305 Hou DC .317 .280
62 62 Orlando Arcia BRV FSL 19 SS .303 Mil 7 .315 .280
81 72 Garin Cecchini PAW INT 23 3B .298 Bos 6 .309 .280
71 52 Mike Ford CSC SAL 21 1B .301 NYA --- .320 .274
62 58 Courtn. Hawkins WNS CAR 20 LF .303 ChA 6 .317 .274
39 19 Jorge Polanco FTM FSL 20 SS .318 Min 10 .345 .270
59 49 Curtis Casali 2TMS S/I 25 C .305 TB 29 .321 .270
62 44 Eugenio Suarez ERI EAS 22 SS .303 Det 7 .326 .268
44 18 Jake Hager MNT SOU 21 SS .316 TB 18 .346 .267
53 19 Oscar Taveras MEM PCL 22 LF .312 StL 1 .345 .264
62 42 Deli. DeShields CCH TEX 21 CF .303 Hou 13 .327 .261
49 12 Will Remillard KNC MID 21 C .314 ChN --- .352 .260
91 56 Carlton Daal DYT MID 20 SS .296 Cin DC .318 .259
21 9 Brandon Nimmo SLU FSL 21 CF .329 NYN 8 .368 .259
57 24 Ryan McMahon ASH SAL 19 3B .305 Col 8 .336 .259
13 3 R. A. Mondesi WIL CAR 18 SS .341 KC 3 .391 .257
62 28 Mar. Littlewood CLN MID 22 C .303 Sea DC .335 .256
26 14 Justin Bohn GRB SAL 21 SS .326 Mia DC .351 .255
47 11 Micah Johnson 2TMS S/I 23 2B .315 ChA 5 .357 .243
48 10 Gary Sanchez TRN EAS 21 C .315 NYA 1 .366 .239
71 17 Matt Reynolds BIN EAS 23 SS .301 NYN DC .348 .223
79 38 Jesse Winker BAK CAL 20 LF .299 Cin 4 .329 .204
56 33 Jose Ramirez 2TMS I/A 21 2B .310 Cle 9 .331 .178
71 31 Sebas. Elizalde DYT MID 22 1B .301 Cin 26 .332 .157
11 --- Willy Adames WMI MID 18 SS .345 Det 30 DNQ
17 --- Elmer Reyes MIS SOU 23 SS .331 Atl DC DNQ
32 --- Paul Hendrix LKC MID 22 3B .321 Cle DC DNQ
33 --- Jabari Henry HDS CAL 23 CF .320 Sea DC DNQ
39 --- Tomas Telis FRI TEX 23 C .318 Tex DC DNQ
62 --- Clint Frazier LKC MID 19 CF .303 Cle 2 DNQ
71 --- Shawn Zarraga HUN SOU 25 C .301 Mil DC DNQ
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 17, 2014 7:21:55 GMT -5
Randal Grichuk is interesting. Only 22 and has been in three organizations. Angels, Rangers and now Cardinals. Apparently he was a RF until this year. Plays in the PCL (Memphis must have moved west) but as you said TAv is league adjusted. Grichuk was never in the Rangers system. He was drafted by the Angels and traded to the Cardinals along with Peter Bourjos for David Freese and Fernando Salas. More interesting is that he was drafted with the 24th overall pick in the 2009 draft - the pick before Mike Trout (although it is entirely possible the Angels would have taken Trout over Grichuk if they only had one pick... who knows). |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 17, 2014 7:52:59 GMT -5
Randal Grichuk is interesting. Only 22 and has been in three organizations. Angels, Rangers and now Cardinals. Apparently he was a RF until this year. Plays in the PCL (Memphis must have moved west) but as you said TAv is league adjusted. Grichuk was never in the Rangers system. He was drafted by the Angels and traded to the Cardinals along with Peter Bourjos for David Freese and Fernando Salas. More interesting is that he was drafted with the 24th overall pick in the 2009 draft - the pick before Mike Trout (although it is entirely possible the Angels would have taken Trout over Grichuk if they only had one pick... who knows). My bad, mind-cramp on "TEX Player of the Week". Still interesting. Was only BA's #10 Cards prospect. (But not as interesting as Wendell Rijo). |
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Post by tc on Jul 28, 2014 12:42:42 GMT -5
Eric, any chance for an update on this? I'd love to see where guys like Joc Pederson, Devers, Margot, and Gallo stand today.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 29, 2014 0:19:21 GMT -5
Eric, any chance for an update on this? I'd love to see where guys like Joc Pederson, Devers, Margot, and Gallo stand today. End of the season, almost for sure. Once guys started getting promoted, and had two stat lines at different levels, it became more work than I had time for. What I hope to do is combine this report (with an improved age-level adjustment algorithm) with one showing Clay Davenport's Peak Translations, and with defensive ratings from BP and Clay. |
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