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Post by jmei on Sept 24, 2012 21:16:55 GMT -5
Alex Speier has a quite good article out analyzing the Rule 5 draft ( link). Here is how he has things broken down: NEAR LOCKS C Christian Vazquez RHP Allen Webster RHP Alex Wilson
BORDERLINE (Good chance of being selected if unprotected, but not locks to be protected) C Dan Butler RHP Josh Fields OF Jeremy Hazelbaker RHP Michael Olmsted RHP Steven Wright
INTERESTING TOOLS BUT UNLIKELY TO BE PROTECTED 3B/1B Michael Almanzar RHP Chris Balcom-Miller RHP Miguel Celestino RHP William Cuevas OF Alex Hassan IF Heiker Meneses
I would read his post for the full analysis, as it's quite good as usual. Thoughts?
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Post by elguapo on Sept 24, 2012 22:18:51 GMT -5
Webster, Wilson, Vazquez, Wright, Olmstead, and maybe Fields.
What about Huntzinger?
There's lots of chaff on the 40-man that could be traded or otherwise disposed of, depending on their value. We don't need to carry 18 relievers on the roster, for example. (Chaff, more or less: Aviles, Salty, Pimentel, Aceves, Miller, Aviles, Lin, Sweeney, Gomez, Stewart, Ciriaco, Valencia, Beato, De Jesus, Quiroz)
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 24, 2012 22:30:39 GMT -5
There will be several spots open on the 40 man.
Cook, Matsuzaka, Padilla, Loney, Quiroz to name five.. Beato, Sweeney and Valencia, IMO, are on the bubble.
Leaving a couple of slots open for acquisitions, Webster, Olmstead, Fields, Wright, Vasquez and Wilson could fill some of the vacated slots.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 25, 2012 6:17:40 GMT -5
How the once mighty must have fallen. Almanzar appeared to have had an outstanding offensive year...and at still such a young age. I know that attitude had been a problem, but I was surprised that this guy did not get more 'press' this season.
Webster has to be on of course and I would be very surprised if Hazelbaker and Olmsted are not protected.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Sept 25, 2012 6:18:02 GMT -5
Olmsted and Wright can opt for free agency if they choose.
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Post by marti427 on Sept 25, 2012 7:16:12 GMT -5
Would like to see Fields stay and see if he can do anything out of spring training
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 25, 2012 7:34:56 GMT -5
It was a great article by Speier.
I've been playing with the 40 for awhile, and it will be really interesting to see what decisions are made this off-season. For me the problem is.....I like several of the pitchers who could be left unprotected and we don't (yet) have room to protect them.
I'm sure we could debate guys like Olmstead, Fields, and Wright all day, but I see them all with a decent chance of helping us. The only one Speier had down as a "tough choice" that I disagree with is Hazelbaker. Have never seen him as someone who will be much of an aid to our Sox.
It is going to be difficult this winter manipulating the 40-man. The Sox have also always attempted to leave 1 or 2 spots open. Ben's got a hard job!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 25, 2012 8:02:37 GMT -5
There will be several spots open on the 40 man. Cook, Matsuzaka, Padilla, Loney, Quiroz to name five.. Beato, Sweeney and Valencia, IMO, are on the bubble. Leaving a couple of slots open for acquisitions, Webster, Olmstead, Fields, Wright, Vasquez and Wilson could fill some of the vacated slots. We currently have 45 on the roster. FA's drop us to 38. If we re-up Papi and Ross we're back at 40. Have to clear 6 slots at least. I'd say; Quiroz, Lin, Valencia, Beato, DeJesus and Gomez. That makes room for Vazquez, Webster, Wilson, Fields, Butler, Olmstead and Wright. Hate to leave Wright unprotected. I'd ask Atchison and Hill if they'd be interested in signing a minor league deal if we want to clear up a couple of more spots.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 25, 2012 10:14:36 GMT -5
We currently have 45 on the roster. FA's drop us to 38. If we re-up Papi and Ross we're back at 40. Have to clear 6 slots at least. I'd say; Quiroz, Lin, Valencia, Beato, DeJesus and Gomez. That makes room for Vazquez, Webster, Wilson, Fields, Butler, Olmstead and Wright. Hate to leave Wright unprotected. I'd ask Atchison and Hill if they'd be interested in signing a minor league deal if we want to clear up a couple of more spots. I agree with most of this. Speier did not lay out the possibility, nee likelihood, of dropping players currently on the 40-man roster. So, assuming the re-signing of Ross and Ortiz, we start at 40 people on the 40-man roster. Locks (30):Starters (5): Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Morales Minor league starters (3): De La Rosa, Pimentel, Britton Relievers (7): Bailey, Aceves, Bard, Tazawa, Miller, Melancon, Breslow Minor league relievers (1): Carpenter Position players (14): Ortiz (re-signed), Ross (re-signed), Ellsbury, Kalish, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Pedroia, Gomez, Aviles, Ciriaco, Nava, Saltalamacchia, Lavarnway, Sands Not locks (10):Starters (1): Stewart Relievers (4): Hill, Atchison, Mortensen, Beato Position players (5): Sweeney, Lin, DeJesus, Valencia, Quiroz What to do:Drop Quiroz for CVaz Drop Sweeney for Butler Drop Lin for JHaze Drop DeJesus for Fields Drop Valencia for Olmsted Drop Hill for Webster Drop Atchison for A.Wilson Drop Mortenson for Wright Choose between Beato and Huntzinger Keep Stewart Do not protect Hassan This gives up 23 pitchers and 17 position players on the 40-man roster. There would have to be further spring changes to better balance the pitching/hitting mix. Given our excess of protectable pitching, it is likely that we will see moves before the Rule 5 draft.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 25, 2012 11:34:19 GMT -5
Add:
Lackey Morales Sweeney De La Rosa Sands
Protect:
Webster Wilson Wright Olmsted Fields Vazquez
Removed:
Dice K Padilla Atchison Cook Podsednik Looney Nava Gomez Valencia Lin Quiroz
Exposed to Rule 5 Draft:
Hazelbaker Butler Almanzar Balcom-Miller Celestino Cuevas Hassan Meneses
That will leave 2 spots open on the 40 Man Roster to sign Ortiz & Ross. That makes 25 Pitchers & 15 Position Players. Try to re-sign Padilla, Atchison, Nava, Gomez, Valencia & Lin to Minor League Deals
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Post by raftsox on Sept 25, 2012 11:56:48 GMT -5
I have an irrational love of the knuckleball, therefore protect Wright. That aside: I would be in favor of protecting him now with the idea of checking him out in ST. If he stinks there's a lot more liklihood he passes through waivers then than slipping through Rule 5 where teams are more apt to say yes because it only costs $50k to return them. It would also limit his options for signing elsewhere, I think.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 25, 2012 12:33:37 GMT -5
Add: Lackey Morales Sweeney De La Rosa Sands Protect: Webster Wilson Wright Olmsted Fields Vazquez Removed: Dice K Padilla Atchison Cook Podsednik Looney Nava Gomez Valencia Lin Quiroz Exposed to Rule 5 Draft: Hazelbaker Butler Almanzar Balcom-Miller Celestino Cuevas Hassan Meneses That will leave 2 spots open on the 40 Man Roster to sign Ortiz & Ross. That makes 25 Pitchers & 15 Position Players. Try to re-sign Padilla, Atchison, Nava, Gomez, Valencia & Lin to Minor League Deals Agree totally with your choices except one. Trade Sweeney and keep Butler. Otherwise....you the man!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 25, 2012 20:02:29 GMT -5
I was surprised to see Vazquez considered a near lock. Could he really hang in the Majors for an entire season? Not saying that he wouldn't get selected or that they shouldn't protect him, but seeing him listed first surprised me. (I'm aware that each list was alphabetical, but I wasn't expecting him in that list is my point.)
One thing we often forget to keep in mind with these lists - failing to protect a player isn't cutting them loose. Just because, say, you don't protect Butler doesn't mean he's gone - a major league team needs to decide to select him with the thought of either trading the Sox for him or keeping him on the major league roster for the whole year.
I see a lot of Beau Vaughan in Michael Olmsted and Josh Fields. The team has never gone out of its way to protect minor league relievers in Rule 5. I'm not sure they start now.
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Post by jmei on Sept 25, 2012 20:37:43 GMT -5
The organization is almost certain to trade/DFA/release some of the many fringy right-handed relievers in the system. That list includes: [on 40-man] Aceves, Carpenter, Mortensen, Atchinson, Beato [Rule 5 eligible] Wilson, Fields, Olmsted, Huntzinger. Since you also have Bard, Bailey, Melancon, and Tazawa (which probably fills out your right-handed reliever quota in the majors), I expect at least three or four of these players to be out of the organization by the end of the Rule 5 draft, and Huntzinger will probably be unprotected.
I agree that the ages of Fields and Olmsted should temper some of the enthusiasm over their statistical performances. Combined with the depth at reliever discussed above as well as the likely scenario that the team wants to add a starting pitcher or first baseman in free agency/trade, and there's a pretty good chance that the Sox roll the dice and hope they can't last the whole year on a team's roster.
I am, however, pretty protective of Vazquez. Very good defensive catchers with decent offensive tools are pretty valuable, and Vazquez is young to boot (22 in AA is solid for a catcher). You're right that it would be hard for him to stick the whole year even in a backup role, but I think he has a high enough ceiling that you can't take the risk.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 25, 2012 21:03:51 GMT -5
I see a lot of Beau Vaughan in Michael Olmsted and Josh Fields. Sure, if you double Vaughan's K/BB rate - in which case he's no longer Beau Vaughan.
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 25, 2012 21:58:12 GMT -5
I tend to agree with elguapo's point, I can't think of too many guys with the mix of stuff and positive results that Huntzinger/Fields/Olmsted have that have been unprotected. There have been plenty of Beau Vaughans with nice numbers but minor-league quality stuff, and a number of guys with good arms who never had much success, but, in an admittedly small sample, all 3 of the pitchers listed above tend to stand out (at least for me) from most of the other relief pitchers to come through the upper minors in recent years.
I seriously doubt all 3 of those guys are in the org. next season, but I'd be a little disappointed to lose even 1 for absolutely no return.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 28, 2012 13:00:12 GMT -5
II seriously doubt all 3 of those guys are in the org. next season, but I'd be a little disappointed to lose even 1 for absolutely no return. I agree, seems like any of the the 3 could come back to haunt us. I would rather lose a bat than an arm.
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 28, 2012 13:20:42 GMT -5
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Post by kindasweaty on Sept 28, 2012 13:47:18 GMT -5
Man, what does Scott Atchison need to do to get some respect around here? Do everyone's grocery shopping? I understand that he isn't the sexiest reliever in the world, but jeeze. Dropping him in favor of a 27 year old knuckleballer with 120 good innings in a 700 inning minor league career?
In 140 innings in Boston Atchison has a 3.19 ERA. The guy has been dynomite. Give the guy his due.
And really, Steven Wright? He's who needs to be protected?
amfox, you specifically mentioned dropping Clayton Mortensen, a pitcher with starting and relieving experience, power stuff and major league success for Steven effin' Wright?
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 28, 2012 14:19:30 GMT -5
amfox, you specifically mentioned dropping Clayton Mortensen, a pitcher with starting and relieving experience, power stuff and major league success for Steven effin' Wright? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I think amfox was laying out the hypothetical for what the Sox would have to do to protect the main Rule 5 eligible players based on the current 40-man roster. Given our excess of protectable pitching, it is likely that we will see moves before the Rule 5 draft. (amfox) I assume there will be a lot of moving pieces this offseason so the roster could look a bit different before the draft rolls around. Even if Mortensen, for example, is an odd man out, he likely goes in a trade.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 28, 2012 14:31:28 GMT -5
I REALLY like Steven "A" Wright's potential moving forward. Scott has done a nice job, but we have replacements in place for a 6th inning (or 7th) reliever.
Wright at least adds starter depth, and potentially could be more than that.
That said, if Atch is not claimed, I'm all for re-signing him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 28, 2012 17:28:00 GMT -5
Point taken. So, guys and gals, if you could only protect one of Fields, Huntzinger or Olmstead, which would it be? I haven't watched any of them this year from out here on the West coast. I have to say, Olmstead's numbers are an eye opener. So, all you Pawtucket-Portland watchers, who has the most potential?
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 28, 2012 18:32:14 GMT -5
I only Protected 2 of the 3, Fields & Olmsted, because I believe both could help in the Bullpen if needed next season. If I had to choose only one it would be Olmsted because I think he has the best swing and miss potential.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 29, 2012 7:46:39 GMT -5
I only Protected 2 of the 3, Fields & Olmsted, because I believe both could help in the Bullpen if needed next season. If I had to choose only one it would be Olmsted because I think he has the best swing and miss potential. Agree.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2012 14:36:55 GMT -5
Awful lot of 19-21 year olds on that list you posted Klos, compared to the 26-year-old Olmsted.
I'd like to see what he can do in Triple-A before I get too excited. Sorry, I just don't get excited about old minor league relievers.
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