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Post by mattpicard on May 6, 2014 0:52:14 GMT -5
It's really shocking that jmei disagrees with me and once again tries to argue that Mercedes velocity didn't increase when clearly it did. You are entitled to your opinion but not to make up your own facts. Please stop lying. In any case there is reason to be skeptical of so-called "popup" velocity guys even if the reason for increased velocity is completely legitimate. Large increases in velocity can put a ton of pressure on your UCL and shoulder. A lot of pop up velocity players have ended up on the operating table. Joel Zumaya is the most famous example. In short I believe that we as fans should evaluate players in the same way a general manager would. A general manager can't afford to wait for a positive test when making an evaluation. They have to go with the facts they have a assign probabilities to potential outcomes. In this case I think it's fair to imply there is a 15-20 percent chance of PED use, and a much greater chance than that he's going UTK. There's nothing irresponsible about doing that. Lying and trying to argue that pitching in the low 90s one year and the high 90s the next because you want to look smart on a message board is not only irresponsible. It's sad. I know jmei's style grinds your gears a bit, but you're the one making false claims here. He's not making up facts -- he's questioning the validity of second-hand velocity reports, which you're taking as fact. He doesn't seem to to be convinced of any particular explanation, and instead notes several possibilities while you're saying Mercedes velocity "clearly" spiked, and that PED usage should be considered as an explanation. It'd be nice for us to evaluate players just as a GM would, but in Mercedes case, I think Cherington has a little more info at his disposal than just some reports from Alex Speier. Is that last part I bolded a finished thought? What exactly constitutes as irresponsibility and sadness here? That jmei doubts the alleged magnitude of Merecedes' reported velocity change while you don't? Your claim - "As to the point that he has substantially increased his velocity I am 100 percent correct" - strikes me as attempting to morph an opinion into a fact more so than any of jmei's statements. ADD: More importantly, why the need for the combative tone? Why can't we just come away encouraged that Mercedes velocity could potentially be a tick or two higher than we'd anticipated? Personal speculation and analysis is fine, however much it differs from the norm, but coming in here with a "I definitely believe he's throwing 97-100 MPH* now and so I'm going to suggest PED use" agenda and then proceeding to jar back and forth about it with someone else who provides more practical/substantive analysis isn't the way to go about supporting it. *I see you changed the range to 97-100 MPH from Speier's reported 95-100. With Ian noting that he worked last year at 91-94 and topped out at 95, I think it's important we state the entire reported range of his surprising power outing, and I'd guess, questionable radar gun or not, that he was typically reading a lot closer to 95 than 99-100 that day. The velocity spike, while something to keep an eye on, may not be all that substantial.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 6, 2014 6:24:32 GMT -5
Almost nothing about that quote backs up your point, though. It says that he threw harder *before* than he does now (95-100), then says he threw a "low-90s" fastball last year, which is consistent with Ian's report of 92-94 and fairly consistent with BA's current 92-97. Plus, as just mentioned, there was an injury to a finger last year ... It's ok to be wrong, don't get me wrong. But to be wrong in the service of throwing out a very thinly-veiled PED reference is worth a retraction, even on a message board. No Brian it says that he throws substantially harder now than he did before. It is extremely unusual for a players to increase their velocity from 93, roughly average or slightly above to plus plus 97-100 at age 22. Given the player's history and background, it is perfectly logical to wonder why that happened. So no my good friend there will be no retraction because.......I'm not wrong. You are welcome to disagree, but you can't go around demanding retractions because I have an opinion you don't like. As to the point that he has substantially increased his velocity I am 100 percent correct. Speier says that when the Sox signed him, he threw 95-100. Now, reports are that he sits low- to mid-90s and occasionally touches above that. Which is lower, I think we can all agree, than 95-100. I think this is all ridiculous because velocity reports are notoriously unreliable (and there's the confounding finger injury in there, anyway), but YOUR source document says that he threw harder when the Sox signed him than he does now. These are numbers, not really opinions. I'm honestly unsure what you are basing your argument on at this point; you're just restating your argument as fact, even when your own source directly refutes your point. It seems like you misread Speier's timeline or something initially and just are digging in your heels now.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2014 8:33:07 GMT -5
Everyone has said their piece, let's move on.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 7, 2014 21:13:06 GMT -5
Just a quick note to remind everyone that I do not read or respond to email on this site.
I don't even open the mail client.
Thanks
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Post by amfox1 on May 7, 2014 22:36:53 GMT -5
moonstone2 -
What I wrote in my PM applies, whether or not you read it. You've been warned.
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Post by jmei on May 13, 2014 13:56:32 GMT -5
Per Alex Speier, the Red Sox intend on having Mercedes move to the Salem rotation going forward.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 7:36:37 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 17, 2014 10:17:16 GMT -5
I was at the same game. Knowing Mercedes a bit better than Tucker did, I didn't come away quite as disappointed because I know he's been better than what he showed that night - I think the 40 OFP and 30 realistic projection he threw on him are super-harsh, but I don't disagree with any of the specifics in the report. His mechanics were out of whack all night and the stuff just wasn't good. I agree that he's a reliever, just a somewhat better one than he projects, although I understand why you would throw that projection on him if that were your only look at him.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 10:35:08 GMT -5
Yeah, I think that report is probably a little harsh, especially since it comes at the end of a long season (Mercedes is 30 IP past his previous high-water mark). But worth noting nonetheless.
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