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Post by Guidas on May 29, 2014 10:18:41 GMT -5
I thought last year was a bit of an overreach by Sean Coyle, but he is backing it up again this year thus far (.359/.412/.551) in AA at age 22. Still less than 100 at bats, but since we're talking about promotions to AAA, should we be presenting with Coyle Fever, as well?
ADDED: Granted the .455 BABIP cannot continue but his ISO of .192 is actually below what he posted in the last year during his injury-shortened season (albeit at lower levels)
amfox1 edit: changed thread title
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2014 10:27:33 GMT -5
Has he moved back to 2B with Betts in the OF? AAA might be a little crowded for him.
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Post by Guidas on May 29, 2014 10:33:42 GMT -5
Also plays 3rd, again crowded.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2014 10:35:16 GMT -5
We don't REALLY need Ryan Roberts though. Or Snyder.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2014 10:43:12 GMT -5
I thought last year was a bit of an overreach by Sean Coyle, but he is backing it up again this year thus far (.359/.412/.551) in AA at age 22. Still less than 100 at bats, but since we're talking about promotions to AAA, should we be presenting with Coyle Fever, as well? ADDED: Granted the .455 BABIP cannot continue but his ISO of .192 is actually below what he posted in the last year during his injury-shortened season (albeit at lower levels) Coyle's Iso in 708 Salem plate appearances was .182, so .192 sounds right about within range. If we rejigger the numbers and give him a .345 BABIP, he's hitting .282/.341/.474. That's pretty sweet from a 22-year old second baseman, but leaving aside Betts' ridiculous April, that line doesn't match up to the more humanoid May-Mookie, and it doesn't quite scream "promote me today!" Coyle's strikeout rate is still up around 23%, which is going to keep that batting average down once the BABIP comes back to earth. If he can handle second base and stay on the field then he's real prospect, but I don't think the bat ends up playing at a corner. There's real upside here though. He gets compared to Pedroia because they're both short, but that's not really fair. A Dan Uggla-type of career, though? Yeah, I could see Coyle doing that.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 29, 2014 10:46:17 GMT -5
Blasphemy!
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 29, 2014 10:53:11 GMT -5
I'll jump on that band-wagon when he completes a full year doing it. He is so swing and miss for me. I'm glad he has worked at 3rd also, but every time I've seen him he seems late on good velocity and little idea with breaking stuff. Totally hope I'm wrong! He runs pretty well and now has experience at 2 positions. I'm just not sold on his hit tool.
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2014 11:00:05 GMT -5
I've been high on Coyle for forever (my pick for comeback player of the year) and thought he was criminally underrated entering the year. He's pretty much raked whenever he's been healthy, and he's a well-rounded player with above-average speed and basestealing ability (career 25 stolen bases per 600 PAs at an efficient 87% clip) as well as solid-to-better defense at multiple positions (working primarily at 3B this year). He's trimmed his strikeout rate this year to an acceptable 23.3% (it hovered around 30% last year), and that's something he needs to maintain if he's to be a productive MLB hitter.
That said, he still has a good bit of work to do despite this hot streak. For one thing, the injury-prone label is looking increasingly accurate, as he's already missed three weeks this year with a hamstring injury. He missed time last year with an elbow injury, a knee injury, and a hand injury (on a HBP). It could just be a string of bad luck, or it could be that he's one of those guys who gets injured easily, especially since he's a smaller guy.
His plate discipline needs some work too. While he's striking out less, he's still striking out four times more than he's walking (23.3% K, 5.8% BB; the walk percentage is a career-low). He's always struggled with breaking pitches and gets pull-heavy at times, which raises some Middlebrooks-esque red flags about whether his approach at the plate will play up at higher levels.
One note: ever since he's come back from his hamstring injury, he's played exclusively DH (four games in a row now), even though he could have played at 2B or 3B (Mookie played some games in CF, while 3B has been guys like Welch, Menenses, and Gibson). He might just need a little more time to get his legs under him, and I imagine he'll continue to split time between 2B and 3B going forward.
ADD: considering the time he's missed to injury the last two years, the fact that he's still relatively young, and that this is his first season in AA, he's not getting promoted anytime soon (the earliest I could see him moving up is late July or August, and I think it's far more likely that he'll spend the whole season in Portland). Once Mookie gets promoted, both 2B and 3B in Portland will be pretty clear, so there's no logjam there.
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2014 11:09:22 GMT -5
If he can handle second base and stay on the field then he's real prospect, but I don't think the bat ends up playing at a corner. There's real upside here though. He gets compared to Pedroia because they're both short, but that's not really fair. A Dan Uggla-type of career, though? Yeah, I could see Coyle doing that. The Uggla comp is a solid best-case-scenario, but even if he falls short of that, I think he can be a solid utility player, even though he can't play SS. He has the athletic profile of a guy who could handle the corner outfield positions, and a guy who plays 2B/3B/LF/RF and has a little right-handed pop fits well as the fourth guy on a bench, especially for an NL team.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2014 11:12:36 GMT -5
If he can handle second base and stay on the field then he's real prospect, but I don't think the bat ends up playing at a corner. There's real upside here though. He gets compared to Pedroia because they're both short, but that's not really fair. A Dan Uggla-type of career, though? Yeah, I could see Coyle doing that. The Uggla comp is a solid best-case-scenario, but even if he falls short of that, I think he can be a solid utility player, even though he can't play SS. He has the athletic profile of a guy who could handle the corner outfield positions, and a guy who plays 2B/3B/LF/RF and has a little right-handed pop fits well as the fourth guy on a bench, especially for an NL team. He definitely seems like he'd be more useful than a Gomes.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2014 11:21:19 GMT -5
The Uggla comp is a solid best-case-scenario, but even if he falls short of that, I think he can be a solid utility player, even though he can't play SS. He has the athletic profile of a guy who could handle the corner outfield positions, and a guy who plays 2B/3B/LF/RF and has a little right-handed pop fits well as the fourth guy on a bench, especially for an NL team. Hmm, interesting thought. I'm generally skeptical of any player who can't play shortstop, center or catcher sticking as a backup in the 12-to-13 pitcher era. As a path to doing that, he'd need Jonny Gomes type of power (.500+ SLG vs. lefties), and I don't think Coyle gets there. I'm not saying that's right - a smart team should have a spot for the type of player you are describing - I'm just being realistic.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 29, 2014 11:27:29 GMT -5
So many prospects seem to come up to the majors and have problems "driving" the ball. As in Ellsbury really for the first few years of MLB. Look at all the prospects who come up and struggle hitting more than singles.
All that said, I don't think we need to teach Coyle how to drive the ball. He is already placing too much emphasis on it even. So if he does make the majors, he may be able to hit the ground running a little better than some in terms of OPS.
One would think that he could learn to cut down on his swing some and keeping it in the zone longer just by focusing on taking the ball up the middle and to RF. Even guys like Adrian Beltre with all the bat speed in the world often focus on taking the ball up the middle for best results. At what point does Coyle start thinking that way, if he hasn't already? He seems HR conscious, to a fault.
I have seen a lot of comparisons to Pedroia. I think we are missing the boat on that a little. He's more like Lowrie. A RH Lowrie. Injury prone like crazy. Good pop in his bat but probably not a high BA guy. Not as good of plate discipline as Lowrie but we signed him out of HS while Lowrie had some college time before starting the minors. Lowrie was 21 when he started at Greenville type levels. Coyle was 19 wasn't he?
Realistically, Coyle has been age advanced a lot of his time in the minors. If he starts excelling now when he is relatively age appropriate or at least closer to age appropriate, it would make sense. Let's just hope we can keep him healthy for a full year at least and see what he can do.
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Post by Guidas on May 29, 2014 11:43:20 GMT -5
Here's the rub - Coyle will have to be added to the 40 man after this season or risk rule 5 exposure.
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Post by amfox1 on May 29, 2014 11:46:10 GMT -5
I thought last year was a bit of an overreach by Sean Coyle, but he is backing it up again this year thus far (.359/.412/.551) in AA at age 22. Still less than 100 at bats, but since we're talking about promotions to AAA, should we be presenting with Coyle Fever, as well? I think Coyle's main jobs this year are (1) stay healthy, (2) demonstrate aptitude at 2B and 3B, (3) cut down on Ks and improve his hitting approach. I don't see a promotion to AAA in the cards this year, although, if healthy, he would be an AFL candidate.
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Post by awall on May 29, 2014 12:02:40 GMT -5
Looked good when I saw him Monday, but he DH'd, so I couldn't see him in the field. Looks far more like a Pedroia approach than a Lowrie approach to my untrained eye. I'd be curious to see how the pros here interpret this: mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=592231&position=DH
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2014 12:05:02 GMT -5
The Uggla comp is a solid best-case-scenario, but even if he falls short of that, I think he can be a solid utility player, even though he can't play SS. He has the athletic profile of a guy who could handle the corner outfield positions, and a guy who plays 2B/3B/LF/RF and has a little right-handed pop fits well as the fourth guy on a bench, especially for an NL team. Hmm, interesting thought. I'm generally skeptical of any player who can't play shortstop, center or catcher sticking as a backup in the 12-to-13 pitcher era. As a path to doing that, he'd need Jonny Gomes type of power (.500+ SLG vs. lefties), and I don't think Coyle gets there. I'm not saying that's right - a smart team should have a spot for the type of player you are describing - I'm just being realistic. I just tend to think that teams will get smarter about this as time goes on. The comp I'm specifically thinking of is Sean Rodriguez, who is a similar right-handed-hitter with some pop (but mediocre strikeout/walk rates) and defensive versatility (but not the ability to play SS or CF). He's been a hugely useful platoon/backup-type for the Rays over the last few years, even though his splits (career .252/.350/.412 versus lefties, .253/.355/.425 last 3+ years) are good but not Gomes-esque. Guys like that allow you to combine half of a platoon at an infield position while also being the 4th or 5th outfielder, which allows you to maximize production while saving a roster spot-- that's hugely valuable.
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Post by joshv02 on May 29, 2014 12:12:47 GMT -5
But Rodriguez was a minor league shortstop who shifted to other positions (and who has played a lot of SS in the majors). Does Coyle have the type of athleticism that Rodriguez had as a kid? He was the #2 or #3 SS on a team with plenty of SS options.
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2014 12:28:29 GMT -5
Fair enough, but Rodriguez hasn't played much shortstop since 2012 (just 28 innings there in the last year+), yet still remains a pretty useful player. There are other 2B/3B/OF-only guys that are useful bench pieces or platoon starters-- think Alberto Callaspo (switch-hitter, but better from the right side), Ryan Roberts, Kelly Johnson (he's a lefty, though), Martin Prado (mostly a starter, though), etc.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 29, 2014 13:26:05 GMT -5
Here's the rub - Coyle will have to be added to the 40 man after this season or risk rule 5 exposure. I don't see a problem there. If he continues to improve they'll be a spot for him on the 40 man. Hassan, for example, could be removed without having a negative impact on the roster.
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Post by okin15 on May 30, 2014 8:49:05 GMT -5
We REALLY don't need Ryan Roberts though. Or Snyder. fixed
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Post by sarasoxer on May 30, 2014 9:02:02 GMT -5
I'll jump on that band-wagon when he completes a full year doing it. He is so swing and miss for me. I'm glad he has worked at 3rd also, but every time I've seen him he seems late on good velocity and little idea with breaking stuff. Totally hope I'm wrong! He runs pretty well and now has experience at 2 positions. I'm just not sold on his hit tool. Hey Steve. Yesterday Coyle roped a 93 mph fastball down the left field line for a double. I know this because I was sitting directly in line with the speed posting on the right-center wall and had been noting velocities for all pitchers in the game. His swings and misses came on breaking balls.
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Post by geezergeek on May 31, 2014 16:36:04 GMT -5
We REALLY don't need Ryan Roberts though. Or Snyder. fixed In fact I was wondering why the Sox did not consider Coyle for a call up yesterday as a righty hitter. He's hitting .350+ and Hassan .217 and taking up a roster spot on the 40. It seems that Coyle would have more value in the field also.
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2014 16:53:34 GMT -5
Well, let's see. Coyle doesn't play first base or the outfield (the two positions the Red Sox needed depth at), he's not on the 40-man roster (and so calling him up would require DFAing someone), calling him up would start his option clock early (he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man until this offseason), he's had all of 94 plate appearances in AA, a level he only reached this year (while Hassan had 784 PAs at AAA over the last three years), they only needed a bench guy for a week or two, and calling up Coyle to come up for maybe four or five plate appearances would disrupt his development for no benefit (he'd just returned from injury and was building momentum at his age-appropriate level)... should I go on?
ADD: the above is meant to be tongue-in-cheek. But the point is that Coyle was never a consideration for a callup, and for good reason. Let's see how well he does the rest of the year in Portland.
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Post by feez732 on May 31, 2014 18:42:14 GMT -5
If he turns into the player you describe Jmei, might the ideal team for him be one that already has more than one starter capable of playing shortstop? Boston might be that team if Bogaerts is ever moved off shortstop. Alternatively, Baltimore and Texas come to mind (with Machado and Profar capable of backing up shortstop). I'm certain there are other teams that also fit those criteria.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 4, 2014 8:27:35 GMT -5
Coyle has a higher OPS at AA than Mookie.... I still like him at AA for the whole season (or near enough). Especially since he's a good candidate for trade.
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