2014 MLB Post-Draft Discussion Thread

Picks by position (as listed on BA):

C - 6
1B - 3
2B - 0
3B - 2
SS - 5
OF - 7

RHP - 15
LHP - 3

Picks by level:

High school - 16
JC/CC - 5
College - 20

Listening to Alex Speier's post draft show and he had Michael Kopech on. Kopech noted that he models his high leg kick Nolan Ryan, and he said that he tries to use uses his lower half of his body similar to Roger Clemons. He had four teams targeting him in the first round and he thought he was going to be picked by the Red Sox at #26.


Keith Law was also on. He considers Chavis as having a high floor, noted that he liked to pepper cars beyond the relatively short LF fence in his HS field. He thought other guys such as Harrison and Gatewood have such a high celing, high risk which may result in neither of them getting out of High A ball.

Law thought that Kopech will increase his velocity over time, but there is always the injury concern when you have guys throwing in the upper 90s. His advisor is his dad which may have tamped down his pre-draft buzz as he didn't have someone marketing him like a lot of the other potential draft picks.. Long limbed pitcher which makes it difficult to pick up the ball. Needs to generate more power from his lower half.

Law saw Travis play first and he thinks that he is athletic enough to play leftfield..One scout who Law trusts a lot liked Travis better than the Cubs' draft pick Schwarber. Travis has a short compact swing...weaker on stuff away... Great value pick

Cosart not as refined as his brother as he came into pitching late... Pretty raw...may translate better as a reliever.

I was impressed with the diversity of the picks. High school, college and jc high picks. Not all from the usual areas; Georgia, Florida, Texas and Calif. A couple of HS bats from Pa. A college bat from Indiana. Delaware. Plus, the traditional areas were hit. Don't even like to grade a draft. For at least 3 years mid-term. Prob, 7-8 years for a final grade. Even then. It's not complete. But, we appear to have been out scouting everywhere.

Impressed with the hall we came away with. I also coudnt find that podcast on weei. haha

Thanks

Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut check predictions" for the 2014 signing season. Not any inside info behind this yet, it's just based on gut feel and years of history. These have usually been pretty solid projections in year's past, but it's getting tougher with the draft cap, and this year the team seems to have shifted strategy towards college players in rounds 11-14. So that could change things.  Comments welcome.

TOP TEN ROUNDS - SUPER WICKED EARLY PROJECTED BONUS
1 (26) Michael Chavis $1,900,000
1 (33) Michael Kopech $1,700,000
2 (67) Sam Travis $850,000
3 (103) Jake Cosart $509,400
4 Kevin McAvoy $10,000
5 Josh Ockimey $50,000
6 Danny Mars $150,000
7 Reed Reilly $200,000
8 Ben Moore $50,000
9 Kevin Steen $50,000
10 Cole Sturgeon $10,000

AFTER 10TH ROUND, ABOVE $100K (First $100K does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Karsten Whitson $350,000 ($250,000 towards cap)
12 Jalen Beeks $400,000 ($300,000 towards cap)
13 Chandler Shepherd $150,000 ($50,000 towards cap)
15 Trenton Kemp $250,000 ($150,000 towards cap)
20 Devon Fisher $300,000 ($200,000 towards cap)
21 Ian Rice $150,000 ($50,000 towards cap)
22 JJ Matijevic $250,000 ($150,000 towards cap)
29 Josh Pennington $150,000 ($50,000 towards cap)

After 10th round, possible $100k or less signs (count $0 towards cap, about 8-12 of these players will sign)
14 Jordan Procyshen
16 Michael Gunn
17 Jeremy Rivera
18 Jordan Betts
19 Tyler Hill
23 Derek Miller
24 Sisco Tellez
25 Gabe Kobosits
26 Ryan Harris
27 Taylor Nunez
31 Alex Mckeon
33 Luis Alvarado
34 Kuehl McEachern
37 Hector Lorenzana
38 Brandon Show
40 Joseph Winterburn

Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,679,400
Red Sox Cap: $6,373,300
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,691,965

DOES NOT SIGN
28 David Peterson
30 Jeren Kendall
32 Case Rolen
35 Ross Puskarich
36 Bradley Wilpon
39 Mike Gretler

Notes: I don't think that anybody on the list is impossible. Some of the "do not signs" could get signed if the club wants to sacrifice a few of the college picks in rounds 11-22. Based on these projections, I think there will be about $1 million to $1.2 million to spend on players after the 10th round (not counting the first $100k for each bonus).  The player everyone will be clamoring for this year is Jeren Kendall.  I don't see it happening, but I haven't looked into it in depth yet.  Again, it's super early and we haven't had a chance to ask around to this point. I'll have my ear to the ground in the coming weeks. The deadline is July 18.

Agreed. haha

I'd be happy with Mike's breakdown above. The name I'm going to watch close is David Peterson. He could end up being this years Nick Longhi. I could see the Red Sox throwing 500K at him to sign him (granted Kemp, Matijevic) don't take up all the bonus money.

Kendall there is no chance.

Slot values for the top 10-round picks:

Rd   Pick  Player          Slot
1     26    Chavis         $1,870,500
1     33    Kopech        $1,678,000
2     67    Travis          $846,800
3     103  Cosart         $509,400
4     134  McAvoy       $377,600
5     164  Ockimey      $282,800
6     194  Mars           $211,800
7     224  Reilly           $163,500
8     254  Moore          $152,700
9     284  Steen          $142,600
10   314  Sturgeon     $137,600

With McEvoy and Mars signing so quick. I'm very anxious to see the $$$. McEvoy especially should be well under slot.

There hasn't been much attention given to the Sox taking Devon Fisher. the high school catcher from Virginia, in the 20th round, but I am impressed by the profile appearing on PG pre-season top 50.

www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=295651

Boston drafted 5 of the pre-season top 50 PG high school players. www.perfectgame.org/all_americans/2014/Default.aspx