SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
|
Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2014 10:50:30 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree with moonstone here. Armchair managers (which is a category I firmly place myself in, by the way) like to complain about closers/reliever usage, but I've come to believe that the setup man/closer hierarchy generally makes sense. The fact that relievers need to warm up, but you want them doing so as few times as possible over the course of a season, means that you need some degree of predictability in reliever usage. Obviously, playing matchups (platoon or otherwise) as much as possible is a good idea, but for practical reasons, you might not be able to do so as much as you'd like.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2014 10:51:09 GMT -5
This is kinda a silly discussion, considering neither Tazawa nor Miller have big splits. For some reason, Farrell seems to think Miller is a LOOGY this year too often.
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jul 17, 2014 10:57:32 GMT -5
This is kinda a silly discussion, considering neither Tazawa nor Miller have big splits. For some reason, Farrell seems to think Miller is a LOOGY this year too often. To be fair, he's actually faced significantly more righties than lefties this year- and the splits aren't big, but his K rate against lefties is absurd (28 K's, 57 batters faced) vs. just good against righties. Regardless, I think he's been a little underused at times, but I don't think Farrell's been misusing him that way- it's clear he can get righties out too, and Farrell has let him to it to a point
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jul 17, 2014 10:58:01 GMT -5
WTF!!!!!!!!! Clearly hell has frozen over.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 17, 2014 11:04:34 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree with moonstone here. Armchair managers (which is a category I firmly place myself in, by the way) like to complain about closers/reliever usage, but I've come to believe that the setup man/closer hierarchy generally makes sense. I haven't. If it's the 8th inning, you're up by one run, and the #2 spot in the opposition lineup is coming up... you want two shutout innings, and that's going to be harder in the 8th inning than the 9th, regardless of what pinch hitters the other team sends in. Send in your best reliever in the 8th. (Of course it's fine if you leave him in for 2 innings and then let another reliever get the 3-run save tomorrow too.) I agree that the L-R business is not as easy and you don't want to do it with relievers that have massive splits. Fortunately neither Miller nor Tazawa fit that description. And there are situations where you don't worry about pinch hitters. David Ortiz is not going to get pinch hit for in a close game, so by all means plan for a LHP to face him. And if the opposing manager's idea of a good pinch hitter against LHP is Jonathan Herrera, well, I wouldn't worry about that too much either.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2014 11:26:57 GMT -5
Relievers have long warm-up routines, and you don't want to rush them too often or get them warmed up for nothing too often. Typically, a guy starts stretching an inning or two before you think you'll need him and starts actually throwing warm-up pitches the half-inning before you need them. That makes using them in matchup fashion like that more difficult than it'd appear. If it's the 8th inning, you're up by one run, and the #2 spot in the opposition lineup is coming up... you want two shutout innings, and that's going to be harder in the 8th inning than the 9th, regardless of what pinch hitters the other team sends in. Send in your best reliever in the 8th. This is a separate issue, one that isn't discussed here. But even in this situation, you risk having warmed up your closer early for no reason (if your seventh inning guy loses the lead, if you blow open the same in the eighth, etc). Plus, ideally, the difference between your closer and your eighth inning guy isn't large enough for doing this to make a huge difference.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 18, 2014 23:20:48 GMT -5
Even With the padres dealing Houston street to the angels, I'm thinking we hang onto koji for the rest of 2014 and try to sign him for 2015. But clearly koji is tiring so we need someone else who can step in and close. mujica wa not that guy this year.
|
|
|
Post by redsox4242 on Jul 19, 2014 23:31:21 GMT -5
Is Mujica back next year? He has been awful and hasn't been pitching a lot lately except in garbage time. I know we owe him about 5 million next year but that signing has been a disaster.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 19, 2014 23:54:45 GMT -5
Is Mujica back next year? He has been awful and hasn't been pitching a lot lately except in garbage time. I know we owe him about 5 million next year but that signing has been a disaster. Money's paid and we can't have Mike Carp and his knuckleball handle all the mop-up duty. Meanwhile Mujica has the potential to become good again. So probably yes.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 20, 2014 0:08:44 GMT -5
Maybe the hold up on the peavy trade is the sox are telling their dance partner that to get peavy, you have to take mujica as well. (Plus a bucket if cash)
It would be nice if the 2015 roster was mujica free.
And while I think it is possible for mujica to regain his mojo, I do not see that happening with us.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 20, 2014 7:25:47 GMT -5
I'm all for keeping Mujica. Decent chance he has a bounce back year in 2015.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2014 7:45:45 GMT -5
Mujica only has a year left, no need to dump him and lessen a return in another trade.
This team is at a cross roads of sorts. They need to be smart the rest of this year and figure out what they have going into next before we really know what they should do. I can't believe how bad they bitched the Lester negotiations. Not signing him is a joke.
The questions that I would like answered by the end of the year are:
1. Can RDL be a starter headed into 2015?
2. Can Workman be a starter?
3. Can Bradley get the bat going consistently? (Play him every day)
4. Should Holt be a starter at some position or is he a super utility player?
5. Are we comfortable with Vasquez as the starter or do we need a better backup than Ross next season?
They need to dump Gomes so he's not taking any playing time from Bradley. They need to get rid of Peavy so he's not taking starts from any young pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jul 21, 2014 8:08:54 GMT -5
I'd add can Xander be an everyday SS to that list but I get the feeling the front office thinks he's a 3B.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 9:29:42 GMT -5
Funny, I agree that the Sox should figure some stuff out before the end of the year, but I completely disagree with your list of questions. The questions that I would like answered by the end of the year are: 1. Can RDL be a starter headed into 2015? 2. Can Workman be a starter? 3. Can Bradley get the bat going consistently? (Play him every day) 4. Should Holt be a starter at some position or is he a super utility player? 5. Are we comfortable with Vasquez as the starter or do we need a better backup than Ross next season? I think that questions 1, 3, and 5 have already been answered with a clear "yes". Workman, I think, can be a starter but not a good enough one to really hold down a spot in the Sox rotation, he is already marked for a trade this offseason in my mind. #4 is a reasonable enough question, but I don't think it's a very urgent one. By the way, even if you are not entirely comfortable with Vazquez as a starter, remember that Blake Swihart will probably be ready for his first taste of the majors sometime next year, which makes having a top backup (and Ross probably still is a top backup despite his awful hitting, thanks to pitch framing) somewhat counterproductive. Now, my questions: 1. Can Allen Webster be a starter? 2. Can Steven Wright be a starter? 3. Can Will Middlebrooks ever be more than a platoon player? 4. Is Mike Carp actually an above-average hitter or not? 5. Can Shane Victorino hit RHP well enough as a RHB to start, or does he need to take a platoon/backup role next year?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 9:32:43 GMT -5
Who is playing SS for us next year? Xander or someone else?
This team cannot afford to hold onto Mike Carp for another 2-3 years until Papi retires to see if he's a good hitter.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 9:36:33 GMT -5
Who is playing SS for us next year? Xander or someone else? The Holt/Marrero platoon? From my perspective there are things to figure out there, but I feel like the Red Sox must have some sort of plan in place that they're not telling us.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 10:20:58 GMT -5
Who is playing SS for us next year? Xander or someone else? The Holt/Marrero platoon? From my perspective there are things to figure out there, but I feel like the Red Sox must have some sort of plan in place that they're not telling us. If we are committed to Marrero getting some more time in AAA then the best bet is Rollins. His option will almost certainly vest, it's basically a Stephen Drew type 1-year deal at $11MM and the asking price should be affordable given our prospect depth. In fact, Rollins could be part of a bigger deal involving Lee or Hamels, though I'm still not holding my breath for something like that.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Jul 21, 2014 12:09:33 GMT -5
The Holt/Marrero platoon? From my perspective there are things to figure out there, but I feel like the Red Sox must have some sort of plan in place that they're not telling us. If we are committed to Marrero getting some more time in AAA then the best bet is Rollins. His option will almost certainly vest, it's basically a Stephen Drew type 1-year deal at $11MM and the asking price should be affordable given our prospect depth. In fact, Rollins could be part of a bigger deal involving Lee or Hamels, though I'm still not holding my breath for something like that. Oof, why? He's still a solid player, but he'll be 36 next season and we have more than enough young and cheap options for shortstop. Even if Marrero starts the season off in AAA, you have three guys in Bogaerts, Betts, and Holt who can probably play 2 months of shortstop at a serviceable level. There's a pretty good chance all three will be with us next season and playing in close to everyday capacities, and given their profiles and our need to add some power, I'm not sure you want to play them all at non-MI positions. Bringing in an old Rollins as a stopgap, even if he'll still be a 2-3 WAR player, hardly seems necessary when we have a defensive wizard with a competent-enough bat looking like he'll be ready by mid-2015.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 12:31:52 GMT -5
I don't see a problem with Holt at SS next year if they don't want Xander there.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jul 21, 2014 12:38:24 GMT -5
Wasn't the reason we got Herrera because we didn't really see Holt as able to handle SS more than just emergency situations? Couldn't think of a better word than emergency, maybe to say in <10 games started.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 12:52:22 GMT -5
Wasn't the reason we got Herrera because we didn't really see Holt as able to handle SS more than just emergency situations? Couldn't think of a better word than emergency, maybe to say in <10 games started. I think it's because they didn't see a lot about Holt.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 13:17:41 GMT -5
If we are committed to Marrero getting some more time in AAA then the best bet is Rollins. His option will almost certainly vest, it's basically a Stephen Drew type 1-year deal at $11MM and the asking price should be affordable given our prospect depth. In fact, Rollins could be part of a bigger deal involving Lee or Hamels, though I'm still not holding my breath for something like that. Oof, why? He's still a solid player, but he'll be 36 next season and we have more than enough young and cheap options for shortstop. Even if Marrero starts the season off in AAA, you have three guys in Bogaerts, Betts, and Holt who can probably play 2 months of shortstop at a serviceable level. There's a pretty good chance all three will be with us next season and playing in close to everyday capacities, and given their profiles and our need to add some power, I'm not sure you want to play them all at non-MI positions. Bringing in an old Rollins as a stopgap, even if he'll still be a 2-3 WAR player, hardly seems necessary when we have a defensive wizard with a competent-enough bat looking like he'll be ready by mid-2015. Sure, we have cheap options, just like we had cheap options this year. I would rather start 2015 with a proven bat at SS than Marrero, if everything comes along and it turns out Rollins is expendable that is great, but I would feel more comfortable putting a veteran at SS to start the year. I don't think Betts fits on the left side, and Holt is going to turn into a pumpkin whether we like it or not. Marrero is the best bet. Putting another defense first player in the lineup going through growing pains at the plate is risky. I don't want to torpedo 2015 by relying on rookies again, we need more consistent depth and balance. The young guys step up, great, if they don't at least there will still be some good baseball to watch.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 13:20:46 GMT -5
More expensive is not better than cheap when you're talking about Rollins. We may as well keep Drew around forever.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 13:26:16 GMT -5
Drew is going to get a multi-year deal without draft pick compensation. He isn't sticking around.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jul 21, 2014 13:30:39 GMT -5
Drew is going to get a multi-year deal without draft pick compensation. He isn't sticking around. oh no...... please.... Drew...... Don't go...I'm wondering if anyone else is on board with Holt handling SS. I still think he would hurt us there in a full season sample size.
|
|
|