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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 1, 2014 1:05:01 GMT -5
Not intended to be a suggestion, intended to be a representation of the position we are in:
To put our current position into perspective, we now have enough prospects & open 2015 salary dollars this offseason to:
sign Lester at market sign koji at market trade for Hamels at full salary trade for Tulo at full salary
and still end up with enough dollars and prospects to:
fill in whatever holes remain on the 25 man, rotation and bullpen and (backup catcher ?) keep at least 1 of Betts, Owens, Swihart keep a solid Pawtucket rotation have a wealth of lower level prospects have multiple draft picks and, have a 15-20ish rated system with a handful of upper level prospects. have $60m+ coming off the books at the end of next year.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 1, 2014 1:53:46 GMT -5
Not intended to be a suggestion, intended to be a representation of the position we are in: To put our current position into perspective, we now have enough prospects & open 2015 salary dollars this offseason to: sign Lester at market sign koji at market trade for Hammels at full salary Hamels*trade for Tulo at full salary and still end up with enough dollars and prospects to: fill in whatever holes remain on the 25 man, rotation and bullpen and (backup catcher ?) keep at least 1 of Betts, Owens, Swihart keep a solid Pawtucket rotation have a wealth of lower level prospects have multiple draft picks and, have a 15-20ish rated system with a handful of upper level prospects. have $60m+ coming off the books at the end of next year. I was thinking something along the lines of that. I would look at a possible Tulo, Cargo, Stanton deal (Tulo makes the most sense because he doesn't play in the Outfield unless we flip someone in the offseason), Sign Lester and Koji. Hamels could be a possibility I might rather buy low on Masterson or get Shields because I wouldn't have to give up prospects for them. I would hold on tightly Blake Swihart. Mookie only for the right deal. My biggest problem with these moves is unless the pitching is flat out terrible,which it could be, we might win more games than I want. I wanted to compete for #1 overall draft pick; still have a chance but adding Cespedes and Craig to this lineup helps everyone else with protection. I think Cespedes will be a monster now that plays in Fenway for half his games and a good majority in the East which are all hitters parks imo. I would sign him to an extension right away might get him cheap with his down year and a half. Every time he peppers a ball of the monster price goes up.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 1, 2014 2:39:16 GMT -5
Look at the Rockies: Strong outfield, decent young pitching, Tulo and crap in the infield. Betts, Marrero, Middlebrooks, one of our mid rotation ML ready starters. Who can compete with that and has financial flexibility ? Mets are the only other realistic competitor there (higher end starting pitching). Off season though, he's not getting traded now. With Tulo off the books, they can afford to keep Cargo. Cubs could do it but they pretty much have SS solved, they need pitching not position players.
ADD: It might not even take that much and there are a boatload of combinations. It seems to me with all the trade deadline hubbub, teams are unwilling to part with prospects across baseball, that was the common theme.
RE: The misspelling, maybe my fingers were cole.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 1, 2014 4:43:19 GMT -5
Chance we go into 2015 with Middlebrooks as our starting 3b? Less than 1%. WMB could be the short end of a platoon with Holt/Cecchini, or X could play 3B with Marrero/Tulo/Other at SS.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 5:04:51 GMT -5
We really need a lead-off hitter. Love the Brockstar's story. But, I ain't buying it long term. Need to find a spot for Mookie. I think Xander/Mookie is the left side of the infield. Sounds like Xander at shortstop for now. Mookie is built much more like your normal shortstop though.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 8:30:04 GMT -5
Chance we go into 2015 with Middlebrooks as our starting 3b? Less than 1%. WMB could be the short end of a platoon with Holt/Cecchini, or X could play 3B with Marrero/Tulo/Other at SS. Cecchini?
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 1, 2014 8:48:34 GMT -5
Less than 1%. WMB could be the short end of a platoon with Holt/Cecchini, or X could play 3B with Marrero/Tulo/Other at SS. Cecchini? Cecchini has popped a few homers lately but his average (due in part to approach change?) continues to slide precipitously. His hit tool is his ticket...so he needs a big rebound to be considered in the mix...or as a trade chip next year. I still have faith in WMB. He did it before, has felt the sting of failure and if adjustment is possible, couldn't be more motivated. I hope that he does not have uncorrectable vision problems. I also have to have Holt on the team...so versatile and all-out. His minor league stats, save for last year, auger well.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 8:58:16 GMT -5
Cecchini has popped a few homers lately but his average (due in part to approach change?) continues to slide precipitously. His hit tool is his ticket...so he needs a big rebound to be considered in the mix...or as a trade chip next year. I still have faith in WMB. He did it before, has felt the sting of failure and if adjustment is possible, couldn't be more motivated. I hope that he does not have uncorrectable vision problems. I also have to have Holt on the team...so versatile and all-out. His minor league stats, save for last year, auger well. I didn't think anyone thinks Cecchini is anywhere close to ready. He has to hit in AAA before he plays in the majors.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 9:16:42 GMT -5
I'm not quite sure that I'm too concerned with being overly RH now and next year as Cespedes and Craig don't have bad splits and Gomes is now gone. I don't think Xander or Betts wind up with bad splits either. And Napoli is fine as well.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Aug 1, 2014 9:41:27 GMT -5
Chance we go into 2015 with Middlebrooks as our starting 3b? I'd put it at 20-25%. I feel like WMB is playing for a starting job, but not necessarily with the Sox. They are fairly well stocked on the left side for the near-term, and if he really is the player we've seen so far (tons of power, streaky), then I can see the Sox hoping he builds up some value and then trading him as part of a bigger deal. The other option is to let him start next year, see what he can bring to the table (if he can stay healthy), and trade him mid-year if we need to make some room on the MLB roster (basically, the WMB 2014 playbook, which went oh, so well). The one wrinkle there is that it may mean a redux of 2014 for Xander, with him beginning at SS and then possibly moving to 3B, depending on who replaces WMB (Holt vs Marrero vs Cecchini vs FA/Trade?).
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 9:42:50 GMT -5
I'm not quite sure that I'm too concerned with being overly RH now and next year as Cespedes and Craig don't have bad splits and Gomes is now gone. I don't think Xander or Betts wind up with bad splits either. And Napoli is fine as well. Agreed. Plus, right-handed hitters generally have less extreme splits than lefties (with the prevailing hypothesis that since most pitchers are right-handed, if you were a RHH with extreme splits, you would have been weeded out before making the majors). Would it be nice if they had a more balanced lineup? Yeah, but they have good hitters overall, which is far more important.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Aug 1, 2014 9:49:43 GMT -5
..... I don't care for the acquisition of Allen Craig. I believe it blocks Mookie Betts from being the Sox LF/RF next year. I want to see what Mookie can do and I believe his future is much brighter than Craig's and I think Mookie has the potential to be an impact leadoff hitter for the Sox.
Now I think we'll never see Mookie get a chance with the Sox. Rather he'll wind up trade bait, perhaps in a deal for Cole Hamels or possibly a chip in a Stanton trade, although I don't see Cespedes being part of that...... It shouldn't come down to Mookie vs. Craig. More than ever, I'm on the try-Mookie-at-SS train. It goes without saying that his bat will play best at an up-the-middle position, and it seems like the skills that made him a plus-plus defensive second baseman will reflect well to the other side of the bag, supported by his arm playing at least serviceably for the position. I'm of the opinion that if Mookie isn't already a superior defensive shortstop to Bogaerts, he will be with a couple months played there this season and in ST. SS Mookie Betts 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz RF Yoenis Cespedes 1B Mike Napoli LF Allen Craig 3B Xander Bogaerts CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. C Christian Vazquez That's a rather potent lineup. The one concern is that it's pretty right-handed, and you'd wish there was a lefty in the 5 or 6 spot. I guess that's what Nava and Holt are for, but you'd need to get real crafty with the off-days for Craig and Napoli. One thing is for certain -- Victorino is squeezed out, as I don't see his bat ever regaining close-to-average production vs. RHP, and there's a good chance he doesn't match the production of any of the 4-7 guys I listed vs. LHP either. His defense trumps all the other corner outfielders, but these days, he can't make a great play without pulling a hammy. One option is to trade Napoli. I know his value is down right now due to a weak 2014, but he is signed for basically 1-yr/$16 mil. If the Sox are able to trade him, that opens up 1B for Craig (signed through 2018) and opens up a spot in the outfield for Nava, Holt, and possibly Betts. Basically, they could field Cespedes/JBJ/Victorino vs LHP and Cespedes/JBJ/Holt-Nava vs RHP, with the option of the other of Holt-Nava manning 1B in place of Craig against a particularly tough RHP (or when he needs a day off). The other shoe in this scenario may be Victorino. With him also moved (or on the DL, which is looking like a high likelihood), that really opens up the outfield.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 1, 2014 10:00:33 GMT -5
One option is to trade Napoli. I know his value is down right now due to a weak 2014, ?? OPS+ of 133 is higher than last season's 129. His HR are down, but that fluctuates, and his worrisome rising K rate has disappeared.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 1, 2014 10:04:37 GMT -5
Given his age, my guess is that Shields will get three years, with a vesting option, or four years maximum. I don't see anyone going to five years. Shields will be roughly the same age as Halladay (3 yrs) and Lee (5 yrs) when they signed their last contracts and we know how those contracts turned out (hint: not good). My guess is 3/57 or 4/76 would do the trick (but contracts always seem to end up higher than you think). Signing Shields will also cost a draft pick, which may depress his market a little bit. Of course, the Red Sox's top pick will likely be protected, which means it would lose its second round pick (but it has OAK's competitive balance pick). Logic says Shields should get no more than 3 and an option, no question. But logic rarely applies with starting pitchers. If the Sox can get him for 3, even if they have to offer a vesting option for a 4th, then I'm all for it. Anything beyond that, and you might as well go after Lester/Scherzer Shields is not worth the money or the loss of a draft pick. He is a #3 starter at best on the downside of his career.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Aug 1, 2014 10:15:04 GMT -5
One option is to trade Napoli. I know his value is down right now due to a weak 2014, ?? OPS+ of 133 is higher than last season's 129. His HR are down, but that fluctuates, and his worrisome rising K rate has disappeared. Perceived value? Is that a thing? Thanks for the correction; I would say that, should the Sox look to move his contract, they wouldn't have to eat too much $$ unless they wanted to really maximize the return.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 1, 2014 10:30:02 GMT -5
Logic says Shields should get no more than 3 and an option, no question. But logic rarely applies with starting pitchers. If the Sox can get him for 3, even if they have to offer a vesting option for a 4th, then I'm all for it. Anything beyond that, and you might as well go after Lester/Scherzer Shields is not worth the money or the loss of a draft pick. He is a #3 starter at best on the downside of his career. He's putting up consistently good numbers and eating innings still- I think he's a good bet to at least match what Lackey's been giving us the last couple of years, although it's true that KC has an outstanding defense and a better pitchers park than we do. Still, that's really selling him short- he hasn't fallen off noticeably at all
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 1, 2014 10:42:25 GMT -5
Shields Ks has declined steadily over the past few years. He also appears to becoming more of a fly ball pitcher which certainly will not play well in Fenway. He is pretty much a league average guy who for some reason acquired the name Big Game James which is obviously a misnomer for someone with 2 wins 4 losses and an almost 5 ERA in the post season. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P#advanced
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 1, 2014 10:51:31 GMT -5
I've been beating the Betts to SS for months now (check second post of this thread). Seeing a couple throws he made from rf I don't understand how his arm wouldn't play. Essentially if you make that move the only other move you need is another catcher. That gives us the resources to acquire what ever pitching we could want.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 1, 2014 12:39:08 GMT -5
Cecchini has popped a few homers lately but his average (due in part to approach change?) continues to slide precipitously. His hit tool is his ticket...so he needs a big rebound to be considered in the mix...or as a trade chip next year. I still have faith in WMB. He did it before, has felt the sting of failure and if adjustment is possible, couldn't be more motivated. I hope that he does not have uncorrectable vision problems. I also have to have Holt on the team...so versatile and all-out. His minor league stats, save for last year, auger well. I didn't think anyone thinks Cecchini is anywhere close to ready. He has to hit in AAA before he plays in the majors. Sure. My point was more that Cecchini showing enough the rest of this year is about equally likely to WMB showing enough to get the job next year... Both are quite low.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 13:26:49 GMT -5
I didn't think anyone thinks Cecchini is anywhere close to ready. He has to hit in AAA before he plays in the majors. Sure. My point was more that Cecchini showing enough the rest of this year is about equally likely to WMB showing enough to get the job next year... Both are quite low. They aren't equally low. Cecchini should show something in AAA before he's in the majors.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2014 13:34:19 GMT -5
Cecchini has outhit Middlebrooks at Pawtucket this year. I agree that Cecchini hasn't shown he's ready and should hit his way out of Triple-A, but the fact that Middlebrooks has the one obvious skill to dream on (power) hides the fact that Holt is a better overall hitter and Cecchini might be already as well.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 1, 2014 13:37:53 GMT -5
Shields Ks has declined steadily over the past few years. He also appears to becoming more of a fly ball pitcher which certainly will not play well in Fenway. He is pretty much a league average guy who for some reason acquired the name Big Game James which is obviously a misnomer for someone with 2 wins 4 losses and an almost 5 ERA in the post season. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P#advancedHe's pretty clearly not league average- hasn't been league average or worse for 4 full years now, and has one season with and ERA/FIP- above 100 since his rookie year. He's not Lester, and he may not even be Lackey, but he's still better than you're portraying him. I'd much rather have Lester, Hamels, or whoever- but if we're going to be as active as I assume we are in free agency/the offseason, I definitely wouldn't mind seeing him in a Sox uniform as our #2 guy at the right price. And his K's are down from about 8/9IP to 7.5- a little concerning, but I'm not too worried. Fly ball rate is actually down somewhat this year too, at least from last year
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 1, 2014 22:04:24 GMT -5
Cecchini has outhit Middlebrooks at Pawtucket this year. I agree that Cecchini hasn't shown he's ready and should hit his way out of Triple-A, but the fact that Middlebrooks has the one obvious skill to dream on (power) hides the fact that Holt is a better overall hitter and Cecchini might be already as well. Holt is a guy you have to trade. The name of the game is buy low.and sell high. The Red Sox have had some good buy lows over the years and recently just flipped one for a good prospect. But unlike the A's they seem unwilling to.sell high. You have to do it because these guys lose value iin a hurry. Holding on to Mike Carp too long is a perfect example.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2014 22:16:34 GMT -5
I agree but with a caveat. Selling high is easier said than done. It's not like GMs make deals based on a player's slash line. If the Red Sox don't think a player is as good as his numbers then most GMs will probably agree. That's true of selling high in the abstract, and probably true as it applied to Carp - I really doubt there was as much of a market for him as we thought there was last offseason. Maybe I'm being a Pollyanna, but that's one I'm willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt on.
As it applies to Holt, though, I agree with you. His offensive profile - even as he regresses - is probably still a second-tier MLB second baseman. I know people fall in love with these super-utility types but he's more valuable to a team that needs a second baseman, and there's a real chance the Sox can get something for him from a team with a need there. I'm not talking about a Grade A prospect or anything, but someone who projects as an MLB reliever, sure.
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Post by klostrophobic on Aug 1, 2014 22:42:25 GMT -5
Who gets to be the annual reclamation project they take on for 2015? Who they keep for half a year, then release only to see him play much better after leaving. I'm putting money on Josh Johnson. 1 year, 14 million in potential dollars.
EDIT: Nevermind, Padres have a 4 million dollar option they can pick up for 2015.
Luke Hochevar.
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