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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by elguapo on Jul 31, 2014 12:57:18 GMT -5
I gotta think they plan to sign a major FA starter [Lester]. They've added some legit hitters at cost-controlled salaries and have a lot of cash to spend.
[Lester] - Buchholz - [Masterson] - De La Rosa - Kelly/Workman/et al Cespedes - Bradley - Craig [3B] - Bogaerts - Pedroia - Napoli - Vazquez - Ortiz
And lots of trade chips to play with.
Any rotation with Buchholz near the top is going to have questions, but I think the lineup will play.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 14:57:50 GMT -5
What's wrong with that is that you are paying $15M or so for a guy who was a 5 WAR player last year and a guy that you've said yourself is wonderful to sit on the bench. Me thinks they could probably make some sort of trade to get more value out of that $15M than just having it sit and rot on the bench. As the Dodgers have taught us, some combination of injury and performance will probably resolve things, especially when you add 1B and DH to the mix. Victorino, Napoli, Ortiz, and Craig are all on the older and more injury-prone side of things, while Nava and Victorino are best suited as platoon players. Even if everyone is healthy and productive, though, you could easily have the following: DH: Ortiz 85%, Craig 15% 1B: Napoli 85%, Nava 15% LF: Cespedes 90%, Nava 10% CF: Bradley 80%, Victorino 20% RF: Craig 50%, Victorino 35%, Nava 15% That gets you: Cespedes 90%, Ortiz and Napoli 85%, Bradley 80%, Craig 65%, Victorino 55%, Nava 40%. Of course, that depends on John Farrell actually juggling the roster situation with some grace (including properly platooning, etc.), so maybe it's unrealistic. yes. And it blocks Holt and Betts from playing any OF.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 31, 2014 15:12:30 GMT -5
Yeah, where is Betts going to play next year at this rate?AAA again? I can't help but think an outfielder is going to get moved this offseason
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 31, 2014 15:12:59 GMT -5
Yeah you must have very good luck with people living up to their word if you think that.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 16:04:21 GMT -5
Right now the 2015 lineup is (in the order I see it)
2B Pedroia RF/LF Craig DH Ortiz 1B Napoli RF/LF Cespedes SS Bogaerts 3B Middlebrooks CF Bradley/Victorino C Vazquez
I think we play out Middlebooks and Bogaerts to evaluate who we have. I think we need an upgrade at that postition, but besides that we can basically go into 2014 with that lineup and focus all our time on rebuilding our pitching staff. Have a couple of hit or miss guys right now with Craig, cespedes, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Bradley, but if they were ever to all play up to their potential that is a very good lineup.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 31, 2014 17:01:44 GMT -5
Yeah, where is Betts going to play next year at this rate?AAA again? I can't help but think an outfielder is going to get moved this offseason Mookie - ss/3b Pedey - 2b Craig - LF Ortiz - DH Cespedes - RF Napoli - 1B Xander - 3B/SS JBJ - CF Vazquez - C AAV= About 59m Bench Nava - OF Holt - Inf Butler - C WMB - 1B/3B AAV= 3M? We've got no money tied up in pitching. I doubt if we even pick up Breslow's option. If we don't sign Lester, I'm guessing we go after Cliff Lee. Wouldn't be shocked if we deal Victorino and Carp in August. Shane has to prove he can pla the rest of the year of course. We can actually afford to sign Lester and trade for Lee as you can see. Would still be under 150m
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 31, 2014 18:42:19 GMT -5
There's a good chance we could move mlb talent to add high level prospects next June.
Mookie, Swihart(which just self corrected to swig art), Cecchini....Barnes, Owens, Johnson all could be2015 call ups.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Jul 31, 2014 20:18:16 GMT -5
Right now the 2015 lineup is (in the order I see it) 2B Pedroia RF/LF Craig DH Ortiz 1B Napoli RF/LF Cespedes SS Bogaerts 3B Middlebrooks CF Bradley/Victorino C Vazquez I think we play out Middlebooks and Bogaerts to evaluate who we have. I think we need an upgrade at that postition, but besides that we can basically go into 2014 with that lineup and focus all our time on rebuilding our pitching staff. Have a couple of hit or miss guys right now with Craig, cespedes, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Bradley, but if they were ever to all play up to their potential that is a very good lineup. So, that's basically: R, R, L, R, R, R, R, S, R I have a tough time believing that they won't swap out some lefties for righties. Holt and Nava would be fairly critical in that regard, especially considering their positional flexibility. But at best that would allow them to bat: Holt, Pedey, Craig, Ortiz, Napoli, Cespedes, Nava, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, CF, C = L, R, R, L, R, R, L, R, R, S, R I know the whole L, R, L, R order isn't crucial, but this lineup really seems like they would become susceptible to RHP.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 31, 2014 20:30:25 GMT -5
I think we'll get one of Lester, scherzer, or big game james.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2014 20:36:12 GMT -5
I think you'll see Nava rotate into 1B/LF/RF and Holt rotate into 2B/SS/3B/CF around the lineup above. I wouldn't think there'd be a strict Craig/Nava or Holt/JBJ platoon, though.
I also think there's a decent chance Victorino will be traded in the offseason and there may be other trades as well.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 31, 2014 20:37:23 GMT -5
Chance we go into 2015 with Middlebrooks as our starting 3b?
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Post by pedroiaesque on Jul 31, 2014 20:43:23 GMT -5
I think we'll get one of Lester, scherzer, or big game james. If I had to lay odds, I'd actually go Lester>Shields>Scherzer. Scherzer may be better than Lester (I'll leave that open for debate elsewhere), but he's only 6 months younger, so he'll turn 31 in 2015. If the Sox are gonna throw down over $100 million for a pitcher, I'd imagine they'd get a better deal with Lester than the >6/$144 mil Scherzer is gonna get. Shields is older by a couple years and will likely require fewer years and $$ than either, which may move him to the top of the list.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 31, 2014 21:05:49 GMT -5
I think we'll get one of Lester, scherzer, or big game james. If I had to lay odds, I'd actually go Lester>Shields>Scherzer. Scherzer may be better than Lester (I'll leave that open for debate elsewhere), but he's only 6 months younger, so he'll turn 31 in 2015. If the Sox are gonna throw down over $100 million for a pitcher, I'd imagine they'd get a better deal with Lester than the >6/$144 mil Scherzer is gonna get. Shields is older by a couple years and will likely require fewer years and $$ than either, which may move him to the top of the list. I agree with that. I also think buchholz is going to bounce back soon.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 31, 2014 21:43:54 GMT -5
Assuming Scherzer wants more than the deal he turned down (6/140 if I'm not mistaken) I don't see him signing with the Sox. Shields is an interesting case, but not if it requires them to go more than 4 years, because at that point just open the checkbook for Lester. Getting Lester to a slightly below market deal, without the draft pick attachment, and that's the best bet. Blow him away with a 5 year insane AAV deal, and see if he bites. If not, I don't see them signing one of the "big 3"
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2014 22:12:13 GMT -5
Assuming Scherzer wants more than the deal he turned down (6/140 if I'm not mistaken) I don't see him signing with the Sox. Shields is an interesting case, but not if it requires them to go more than 4 years, because at that point just open the checkbook for Lester. Getting Lester to a slightly below market deal, without the draft pick attachment, and that's the best bet. Blow him away with a 5 year insane AAV deal, and see if he bites. If not, I don't see them signing one of the "big 3" Given his age, my guess is that Shields will get three years, with a vesting option, or four years maximum. I don't see anyone going to five years. Shields will be roughly the same age as Halladay (3 yrs) and Lee (5 yrs) when they signed their last contracts and we know how those contracts turned out (hint: not good). My guess is 3/57 or 4/76 would do the trick (but contracts always seem to end up higher than you think). Signing Shields will also cost a draft pick, which may depress his market a little bit. Of course, the Red Sox's top pick will likely be protected, which means it would lose its second round pick (but it has OAK's competitive balance pick).
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jul 31, 2014 22:19:42 GMT -5
I gotta think they plan to sign a major FA starter [Lester]. They've added some legit hitters at cost-controlled salaries and have a lot of cash to spend. [Lester] - Buchholz - [Masterson] - De La Rosa - Kelly/Workman/et al Cespedes - Bradley - Craig [3B] - Bogaerts - Pedroia - Napoli - Vazquez - Ortiz And lots of trade chips to play with. Any rotation with Buchholz near the top is going to have questions, but I think the lineup will play. Depending on the market for Shields, I could see him and Lester in play. Could they get Lester for 25/5 and Shields for 18/4, resign Koji for 5/1? That's really all they would need to spend all off season to field a highly competitive team, and it'd be at about 155M total. Let the kids fight it out at the bottom, bring in a lottery ticket like Josh Johnson, and you have plenty of prospects and cash to make adjustments along the way.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 31, 2014 22:25:30 GMT -5
I gotta think they plan to sign a major FA starter [Lester]. They've added some legit hitters at cost-controlled salaries and have a lot of cash to spend. [Lester] - Buchholz - [Masterson] - De La Rosa - Kelly/Workman/et al Cespedes - Bradley - Craig [3B] - Bogaerts - Pedroia - Napoli - Vazquez - Ortiz And lots of trade chips to play with. Any rotation with Buchholz near the top is going to have questions, but I think the lineup will play. Depending on the market for Shields, I could see him and Lester in play. Could they get Lester for 25/5 and Shields for 18/4, resign Koji for 5/1? That's really all they would need to spend all off season to field a highly competitive team, and it'd be at about 155M total. Let the kids fight it out at the bottom, bring in a lottery ticket like Josh Johnson, and you have plenty of prospects and cash to make adjustments along the way. The problem is the LA teams, Seattle , Detroit and the Mystery team will all be bidding up these guys.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 31, 2014 22:44:21 GMT -5
I see the sox and the yanks pulling out big bucks for shezrer and Lester.
In my mind we get sherzer and the yanks Lester.
Don 't see Buchholz bouncing back until 2016 after he has surgery.
Sherzer, de la rosa, Webster, Kelly and ranauldo. Workman to the pen.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2014 22:53:57 GMT -5
I think you'll see Nava rotate into 1B/LF/RF and Holt rotate into 2B/SS/3B/CF around the lineup above. I wouldn't think there'd be a strict Craig/Nava or Holt/JBJ platoon, though. I also think there's a decent chance Victorino will be traded in the offseason and there may be other trades as well. Out of curiosity, if you trade Victorino and have Holt as a super utility guy, who is the leadoff hitter? I worry about that when the time comes. In general, Holt would likely be the leadoff guy when he starts and Pedroia on the other days. If Betts ever comes up, he does it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2014 23:40:27 GMT -5
I see the sox and the yanks pulling out big bucks for shezrer and Lester. In my mind we get sherzer and the yanks Lester. Don 't see Buchholz bouncing back until 2016 after he has surgery. Sherzer, de la rosa, Webster, Kelly and ranauldo. Workman to the pen. Scherzer would cost the Sox more than Lester would. Given a choice between Lester and Scherzer I would think the Sox would choose Lester. I can see the Yanks going all out for both Lester and Scherzer. I can also see the Cubs going after Lester as they need a stud pitcher to go with their great young offensive attack coming up from the minors. I doubt the Sox wind up with either pitcher although the thought of reuniting with Lester would be huge. The Sox certainly need an ace. Hope they're willing to spend the money to get one.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2014 23:54:05 GMT -5
I like the idea of adding Cespedes from the lineup and if it's only at the expense of a returning Lester then the Sox have pulled off highway robbery.
I don't care for the acquisition of Allen Craig. I believe it blocks Mookie Betts from being the Sox LF/RF next year. I want to see what Mookie can do and I believe his future is much brighter than Craig's and I think Mookie has the potential to be an impact leadoff hitter for the Sox.
Now I think we'll never see Mookie get a chance with the Sox. Rather he'll wind up trade bait, perhaps in a deal for Cole Hamels or possibly a chip in a Stanton trade, although I don't see Cespedes being part of that.
It's obvious that Victorino would need to go as they're grooming Cespedes to play RF and Shane has injury issues.
I think the left side of the infield is fuzzy. I guess Bogaerts gets a shot at SS now with WMB getting another audition at 3b, which begs the question where does Brock Holt play if the outfield and left side of the infield is overcrowded with options? Does Bogaerts move back to 3b with Marrero getting the SS gig if Xander is as questionable with the glove as he looked at the beginning of this year?
Lots of question marks. I think the addition of Allen Craig adds to this. My hope is that somehow the Sox have plenty of pieces to deal for Stanton. If major league players are now the preference to minor leaguers perhaps Holt interests the Marlins, along with WMB, Betts (although I'd prefer to keep him) or Marrero, and one of the many middle of the rotation starters the Sox have (assuming the Sox would make Owens untouchable, perhaps Ranaudo would be the guy most coveted by Florida)? Again not sure where Craig would fit in, if he does at all. Who knows if his foot is going to be 100% and if he'll hit the way he used to?
Then there's the huge abundance of #4 type starters the Sox are stacking from Kelly to most of the staff at Portland and Pawtucket. They need a couple of horses to replace Lester and Lackey at the front of the rotation.
I think free agent Lester would replace Lester very well in the rotation. I do think Lackey can be replaced internally, perhaps by Ranaudo or perhaps the law of averages has one of those projected #3/4 starters bust out and claim the #2 spot.
They have so many pieces now. Just not sure how it fits. Seems to me they have the chips to make a deal with the Marlins if the Marlins are forced to deal Stanton, and let's face it a lineup that features Napoli at 1b, Ortiz DHing, Cespedes in LF, Stanton in RF, and Bogaerts potentially developing power at 3b or SS, this could be a potent lineup, and the money would still be there for the Sox to sign Lester.
This is part 1 of the two part process Ben is putting together to make the 2015 team a helluva lot better than the 2014 team.
I think we'll be following the winter meetings every bit as intensely as the past few days.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 1, 2014 0:11:18 GMT -5
I like the idea of adding Cespedes from the lineup and if it's only at the expense of a returning Lester then the Sox have pulled off highway robbery. I don't care for the acquisition of Allen Craig. I believe it blocks Mookie Betts from being the Sox LF/RF next year. I want to see what Mookie can do and I believe his future is much brighter than Craig's and I think Mookie has the potential to be an impact leadoff hitter for the Sox.
Now I think we'll never see Mookie get a chance with the Sox. Rather he'll wind up trade bait, perhaps in a deal for Cole Hamels or possibly a chip in a Stanton trade, although I don't see Cespedes being part of that.It's obvious that Victorino would need to go as they're grooming Cespedes to play RF and Shane has injury issues. I think the left side of the infield is fuzzy. I guess Bogaerts gets a shot at SS now with WMB getting another audition at 3b, which begs the question where does Brock Holt play if the outfield and left side of the infield is overcrowded with options? Does Bogaerts move back to 3b with Marrero getting the SS gig if Xander is as questionable with the glove as he looked at the beginning of this year? Lots of question marks. I think the addition of Allen Craig adds to this. My hope is that somehow the Sox have plenty of pieces to deal for Stanton. If major league players are now the preference to minor leaguers perhaps Holt interests the Marlins, along with WMB, Betts (although I'd prefer to keep him) or Marrero, and one of the many middle of the rotation starters the Sox have (assuming the Sox would make Owens untouchable, perhaps Ranaudo would be the guy most coveted by Florida)? Again not sure where Craig would fit in, if he does at all. Who knows if his foot is going to be 100% and if he'll hit the way he used to? Then there's the huge abundance of #4 type starters the Sox are stacking from Kelly to most of the staff at Portland and Pawtucket. They need a couple of horses to replace Lester and Lackey at the front of the rotation. I think free agent Lester would replace Lester very well in the rotation. I do think Lackey can be replaced internally, perhaps by Ranaudo or perhaps the law of averages has one of those projected #3/4 starters bust out and claim the #2 spot. They have so many pieces now. Just not sure how it fits. Seems to me they have the chips to make a deal with the Marlins if the Marlins are forced to deal Stanton, and let's face it a lineup that features Napoli at 1b, Ortiz DHing, Cespedes in LF, Stanton in RF, and Bogaerts potentially developing power at 3b or SS, this could be a potent lineup, and the money would still be there for the Sox to sign Lester. This is part 1 of the two part process Ben is putting together to make the 2015 team a helluva lot better than the 2014 team. I think we'll be following the winter meetings every bit as intensely as the past few days. It shouldn't come down to Mookie vs. Craig. More than ever, I'm on the try-Mookie-at-SS train. It goes without saying that his bat will play best at an up-the-middle position, and it seems like the skills that made him a plus-plus defensive second baseman will reflect well to the other side of the bag, supported by his arm playing at least serviceably for the position. I'm of the opinion that if Mookie isn't already a superior defensive shortstop to Bogaerts, he will be with a couple months played there this season and in ST. SS Mookie Betts 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz RF Yoenis Cespedes 1B Mike Napoli LF Allen Craig 3B Xander Bogaerts CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. C Christian Vazquez That's a rather potent lineup. The one concern is that it's pretty right-handed, and you'd wish there was a lefty in the 5 or 6 spot. I guess that's what Nava and Holt are for, but you'd need to get real crafty with the off-days for Craig and Napoli. One thing is for certain -- Victorino is squeezed out, as I don't see his bat ever regaining close-to-average production vs. RHP, and there's a good chance he doesn't match the production of any of the 4-7 guys I listed vs. LHP either. His defense trumps all the other corner outfielders, but these days, he can't make a great play without pulling a hammy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2014 0:16:24 GMT -5
It shouldn't come down to Mookie vs. Craig. More than ever, I'm on the try-Mookie-at-SS train. It goes without saying that his bat will play best at an up-the-middle position, and it seems like the skills that made him a plus-plus defensive second baseman will reflect well to the other side of the bag, supported by his arm playing at least serviceably for the position. I'm of the opinion that if Mookie isn't already a superior defensive shortstop to Bogaerts, he will be with a couple months played there this season and in ST. SS Mookie Betts 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz RF Yoenis Cespedes 1B Mike Napoli LF Allen Craig 3B Xander Bogaerts CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. C Christian Vazquez That's a rather potent lineup. The one concern is that it's pretty right-handed, and you'd wish there was a lefty in the 5 or 6 spot. I guess that's what Nava and Holt are for, but you'd need to get real crafty with the off-days for Craig and Napoli. One thing is for certain -- Victorino is squeezed out, as I don't see his bat ever regaining close-to-average production vs. RHP, and there's a good chance he doesn't match the production of any of the 4-7 guys I listed vs. LHP either. I could get behind that idea, but I keep hearing that Betts' arm doesn't play for a SS. If it did, I'd really like your idea. I also agree that the Sox are too right-handed. They need another lefty power stick to support Ortiz and balance out the lineup, ideally in LF, although if they could get their hands on Stanton, I wouldn't worry as much about getting a LH hitting OF. I'd want a LH hitting 1b to replace Napoli when he leaves. I've gotta get off this Stanton kick. I just see so many pieces to offer, as long as their names aren't Bogaerts, Swihart, or Owens.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 0:18:22 GMT -5
If you sign Cespedes to an extension it's easy to see how Betts looks squeezed out. But I suggest management might instead look to trade JBJr and put Betts in CF with his more potent bat and with more experience pretty decent defense. Wouldn't shock me to see a JBJr/(Ruby or Webster)/(Johnson or Rodriguez or Ranaudo) plus one of a Coyle or lower level lotto type in a deal. Not a Stanton deal as it would need at least one higher regarded prospect but maybe it gets you in the Hamels door or another unexpected target.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 1, 2014 0:37:56 GMT -5
Assuming Scherzer wants more than the deal he turned down (6/140 if I'm not mistaken) I don't see him signing with the Sox. Shields is an interesting case, but not if it requires them to go more than 4 years, because at that point just open the checkbook for Lester. Getting Lester to a slightly below market deal, without the draft pick attachment, and that's the best bet. Blow him away with a 5 year insane AAV deal, and see if he bites. If not, I don't see them signing one of the "big 3" Given his age, my guess is that Shields will get three years, with a vesting option, or four years maximum. I don't see anyone going to five years. Shields will be roughly the same age as Halladay (3 yrs) and Lee (5 yrs) when they signed their last contracts and we know how those contracts turned out (hint: not good). My guess is 3/57 or 4/76 would do the trick (but contracts always seem to end up higher than you think). Signing Shields will also cost a draft pick, which may depress his market a little bit. Of course, the Red Sox's top pick will likely be protected, which means it would lose its second round pick (but it has OAK's competitive balance pick). Logic says Shields should get no more than 3 and an option, no question. But logic rarely applies with starting pitchers. If the Sox can get him for 3, even if they have to offer a vesting option for a 4th, then I'm all for it. Anything beyond that, and you might as well go after Lester/Scherzer
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