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SS of the Future: Bogaerts or Marrero?
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2014 17:18:38 GMT -5
Also, although I believe someone else has said this already, Mookie is not a 3B. And won't be. If they moved him off SS because of a fringy arm, he's obviously not getting moved to 3B, where his arm would likely be well below average I've been meaning to address this. Mookie, as I understand it, was moved to 2B not because his arm was weak, but because it was so erratic. I just read a scouting report of him in CF that said he had the arm strength to play RF, and Cafardo has reported that scouts have raised the Mookie at 3B possibility. Nor can I recall a single report since he had his breakout that singled out a weak arm as his one shortcoming, suggested he might be better suited to LF than CF, or so on. milb.com:
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Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2014 17:41:50 GMT -5
Also, although I believe someone else has said this already, Mookie is not a 3B. And won't be. If they moved him off SS because of a fringy arm, he's obviously not getting moved to 3B, where his arm would likely be well below average I've been meaning to address this. Mookie, as I understand it, was moved to 2B not because his arm was weak, but because it was so erratic. I just read a scouting report of him in CF that said he had the arm strength to play RF, and Cafardo has reported that scouts have raised the Mookie at 3B possibility. Nor can I recall a single report since he had his breakout that singled out a weak arm as his one shortcoming, suggested he might be better suited to LF than CF, or so on. milb.com:There are a bunch of recent scouting reports that question his arm. A sampling: Jim Callis (Feb '14): "Though his arm is somewhat fringy for the left side of the infield, the Red Sox may try him at shortstop and center field this year." Baseball America (preseason '14): "Betts’ arm is better suited for the right side of the infield." MLB.com (preseason '14): "Betts began his professional career as a shortstop, but soon shifted to second base, where his arm profiles better." Ian Cundall (Jan '14): "His arm strength would be the main question at short." Whether his issue is accuracy or raw arm strength, if he can't hack it at shortstop, I have a hard time seeing it play up well enough at 3B. Similarly, I can't imagine a scenario where having Bogaerts at SS and Betts at 3B is a better defensive alignment than having Betts at SS (the position that requires more athleticism) and Bogaerts at 3B (the position that requires more arm).
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Post by godot on Jun 25, 2014 17:47:59 GMT -5
This thread is interesting and informative, but can't see why we just let it play out instead of all this detective work. Oh well, to each his own, I guess. Must be fun in some way.
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Post by onbase on Jun 25, 2014 18:57:59 GMT -5
There are a bunch of recent scouting reports that question his arm. A sampling: Jim Callis (Feb '14): "Though his arm is somewhat fringy for the left side of the infield, the Red Sox may try him at shortstop and center field this year." Baseball America (preseason '14): "Betts’ arm is better suited for the right side of the infield." MLB.com (preseason '14): "Betts began his professional career as a shortstop, but soon shifted to second base, where his arm profiles better." Ian Cundall (Jan '14): "His arm strength would be the main question at short." Whether his issue is accuracy or raw arm strength, if he can't hack it at shortstop, I have a hard time seeing it play up well enough at 3B. Similarly, I can't imagine a scenario where having Bogaerts at SS and Betts at 3B is a better defensive alignment than having Betts at SS (the position that requires more athleticism) and Bogaerts at 3B (the position that requires more arm). This raises a question I've had - I realize that early scouting reports and stats have predictive value in aggregate, so how do we recognize when an individual player escapes out from under the bell curve in a sustainable manner? I hope Betts isn't put in a "can't do this box". Xander may or may not have escaped his "too big to play SS" box. Marrero is outside his defensive and offensive boxes, and I think we'll have to wait before we know whether he'll return to either one. I thought that was part of what eric was getting at with his "Stop." opening, but I'm not sure subsequent conversation has confirmed, or centered on that. As a guideline / methodology, I'm in favor of Phils' *how do we put the best run differential on the field regardless of who plays what position* approach.
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Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2014 20:07:39 GMT -5
This raises a question I've had - I realize that early scouting reports and stats have predictive value in aggregate, so how do we recognize when an individual player escapes out from under the bell curve in a sustainable manner? I hope Betts isn't put in a "can't do this box". Xander may or may not have escaped his "too big to play SS" box. Marrero is outside his defensive and offensive boxes, and I think we'll have to wait before we know whether he'll return to either one. I don't think this is too difficult of a question-- when players show meaningful skill changes (which we can ascertain through a combination of updated scouting reports and statistical analysis), the old scouting reports become irrelevant. Of course, determining when exactly we reach that tipping point is a difficult and often ambiguous question. For instance, I'm not sure that I think much differently of Marrero now than I did last year. Of course, I was pretty high on Marrero last year (and got a lot of grief for it). As a guideline / methodology, I'm in favor of Phils' *how do we put the best run differential on the field regardless of who plays what position* approach. To clarify-- Eric's analysis recognizes this principle as well. The difference, under his analysis, is that if the best-run-differential-on-the-field-using-internal-options involves playing prospects at positions where they're less valuable than they would be at other positions (e.g., playing Middlebrooks in LF rather than 3B), the best solution might be to trade those guys to a team who can play them at their ideal position.
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Post by onbase on Jun 25, 2014 20:39:48 GMT -5
This raises a question I've had - I realize that early scouting reports and stats have predictive value in aggregate, so how do we recognize when an individual player escapes out from under the bell curve in a sustainable manner? I hope Betts isn't put in a "can't do this box". Xander may or may not have escaped his "too big to play SS" box. Marrero is outside his defensive and offensive boxes, and I think we'll have to wait before we know whether he'll return to either one. I don't think this is too difficult of a question-- when players show meaningful skill changes (which we can ascertain through a combination of updated scouting reports and statistical analysis), the old scouting reports become irrelevant. Of course, determining when exactly we reach that tipping point is a difficult and often ambiguous question. For instance, I'm not sure that I think much differently of Marrero now than I did last year. Of course, I was pretty high on Marrero last year (and got a lot of grief for it). As a guideline / methodology, I'm in favor of Phils' *how do we put the best run differential on the field regardless of who plays what position* approach. To clarify-- Eric's analysis recognizes this principle as well. The difference, under his analysis, is that if the best-run-differential-on-the-field-using-internal-options involves playing prospects at positions where they're less valuable than they would be at other positions (e.g., playing Middlebrooks in LF rather than 3B), the best solution might be to trade those guys to a team who can play them at their ideal position. Which makes some sense and is easy to lose in the conversations. Also distasteful if you happen to have fallen in love with a particular player (me, Marrero). I admit it. I love watching baseball most when it includes good defense, and he's very, very good at it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2014 21:11:36 GMT -5
This thread is interesting and informative, but can't see why we just let it play out instead of all this detective work. Oh well, to each his own, I guess. Must be fun in some way. Well, the point of the thread was that we had no rational option except to let it play out. On a personal note, there may be no human being on the planet more addicted to to trying to figure things out than me -- I've been known to stop shaving halfway done, because I got an idea for a study I could do with a quick FanGraphs data export and a couple of linear regressions. It's like a disease. So, when I say that something is not worth trying to figure out yet, and resist the temptation easily, that's saying something. Nevertheless, many people have offered their opinions as to how it will play out (by arbitrarily fixing 8 or 9 of the 11 variables, if not all of them). I would carry out the Photoshop threat but I'm having trouble finding a picture with a dozen different sheep. (That, and the fact that I have no Photoshop skills and don't own a copy.)
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Post by godot on Jun 26, 2014 6:50:10 GMT -5
Sorry, not to note that you basically said stop, don't try and make a decision on this. I like to be brief, if possible, and really do not have the time to elaborate on a posting board. But you then articulate a calculus of sorts upon which to make decision down the line. As spot on as it is, this leads to people responding by "playing detective" or thinking it out. You are right there is a better use of their time, like napping or fixing themselves a cocktail. Besides I am not much into prediction, other than in the long run we are all dead.
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Post by suttree on Jun 28, 2014 15:16:28 GMT -5
Has Marrero done enough this season to crack a top 100 list?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2014 23:25:05 GMT -5
I've been meaning to address this. Mookie, as I understand it, was moved to 2B not because his arm was weak, but because it was so erratic. I just read a scouting report of him in CF that said he had the arm strength to play RF, and Cafardo has reported that scouts have raised the Mookie at 3B possibility. Nor can I recall a single report since he had his breakout that singled out a weak arm as his one shortcoming, suggested he might be better suited to LF than CF, or so on. milb.com:There are a bunch of recent scouting reports that question his arm. A sampling: Jim Callis (Feb '14): "Though his arm is somewhat fringy for the left side of the infield, the Red Sox may try him at shortstop and center field this year." Baseball America (preseason '14): "Betts’ arm is better suited for the right side of the infield." MLB.com (preseason '14): "Betts began his professional career as a shortstop, but soon shifted to second base, where his arm profiles better." Ian Cundall (Jan '14): "His arm strength would be the main question at short." Whether his issue is accuracy or raw arm strength, if he can't hack it at shortstop, I have a hard time seeing it play up well enough at 3B. Similarly, I can't imagine a scenario where having Bogaerts at SS and Betts at 3B is a better defensive alignment than having Betts at SS (the position that requires more athleticism) and Bogaerts at 3B (the position that requires more arm). OTOH, the very first sentence (out of two) in BA's Top 100 Prospect List entry was "Betts showed all five tools last season, including the arm strength to make a move back to shortstop possible." Better at 2B does not necessarily mean inadequate at SS. Pete Townshend would be an easy pick as rhythm guitarist if you were putting together an all-time rock band*, and would probably not be in your top 1000 as a lead guitarist. But as a lead guitarist ... he's pretty damn good, actually. *The fact that, IMHO, Keith Moon would be just as easy a pick on drums, and Jon Entwhistle would be in your top 2 at bass (either him or Jack Bruce**), well, that's why The Who were The Who. (Yeah, I was a rock critic in an earlier life.**) **Well, actually, top 3, including Jannick Top, but if anyone here knows who that is, I'd be tickled.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 29, 2014 1:06:38 GMT -5
Marrero has passed Cecchini in this week's SP rankings. I'm sure it's a combo of Marrero up and Cecchini down, nonetheless, it is what it is relative to the general discussion here and we'll have to see how it plays out over the remainder of the season.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 29, 2014 1:44:48 GMT -5
I worked with Marrero when he was playing for Cotuit in the Cape League. The dude has always been able to pick it, I thought he was already a plus defender by his second year with the team. Iglesias? Probably not, he isn't AS flashy. But he still can make some spectacular plays and is quite steady.
The bat is coming around too. I honestly believe the future left side of the infield is him and Bogaerts at 3rd. Going into his draft year he was widely regarded as a top 5-10 talent and then he hit "meh". It seems we may have lucked out.
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Post by suttree on Jun 29, 2014 7:08:13 GMT -5
The fall of Cecchini seems more evident than the rise of Marrero. The first post-Theo draft is starting to look better. Anyone else notice that the magic of Mookie seems to rub off on other hitters? Shaw, Marrero and Coyle have bounced back from tough seasons while Swihart has tapped into his power.
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Post by zil on Jun 29, 2014 8:04:26 GMT -5
The fall of Cecchini seems more evident than the rise of Marrero. The first post-Theo draft is starting to look better. Anyone else notice that the magic of Mookie seems to rub off on other hitters? Shaw, Marrero and Coyle have bounced back from tough seasons while Swihart has tapped into his power. Maybe he can get Xander going.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2014 8:58:14 GMT -5
There are a bunch of recent scouting reports that question his arm. A sampling: Jim Callis (Feb '14): "Though his arm is somewhat fringy for the left side of the infield, the Red Sox may try him at shortstop and center field this year." Baseball America (preseason '14): "Betts’ arm is better suited for the right side of the infield." MLB.com (preseason '14): "Betts began his professional career as a shortstop, but soon shifted to second base, where his arm profiles better." Ian Cundall (Jan '14): "His arm strength would be the main question at short." Whether his issue is accuracy or raw arm strength, if he can't hack it at shortstop, I have a hard time seeing it play up well enough at 3B. Similarly, I can't imagine a scenario where having Bogaerts at SS and Betts at 3B is a better defensive alignment than having Betts at SS (the position that requires more athleticism) and Bogaerts at 3B (the position that requires more arm). OTOH, the very first sentence (out of two) in BA's Top 100 Prospect List entry was "Betts showed all five tools last season, including the arm strength to make a move back to shortstop possible." Better at 2B does not necessarily mean inadequate at SS. Yeah, but even that quote acknowledges that fact that his arm is clearly the weakest of his tools and there are questions about how well it will play at shortstop (note the use of the word "possible"). Even if his arm is borderline-acceptable at shortstop, that means it probably won't be good enough at 3B for him to be the full-time starter there. And again, it seems like if he and Xander are your left-side starters, you make Mookie the SS and Xander the 3B (and I hope we all know that any hypothetical with Mookie at 3B would mean Xander at SS, and that it would be better to flip-flop the two). Similarly, Mookie's arm might be fine in a part-time role in RF (since range is more important than arm at that position in Fenway), but I also have my doubts about whether he's best suited to being a full-time RF.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 2, 2014 11:54:16 GMT -5
Marrero promoted to AAA.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Jul 2, 2014 13:27:33 GMT -5
Based on previous comments by the brass, that Triple-A players are largely believed to be MLB-ready, Marrero is now a legit option for this season at SS if Drew gets dealt, and Bogaerts stays at third. Might require a full-on rebuild, but that's what I'm reading into this.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 2, 2014 15:34:34 GMT -5
How, on the 20-80 scale would Marrero's defense rate? I ask because thoughout this thread, he's been said to be "similar to, or a tick below" Iglesias'. Now, according to the scale elite is 80; meaning that Andrelton Simmons is an 80 defender at SS. Iglesias is below that, so...70 or 75? Marrero would then be a 65 or 70?
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Post by rider on Jul 2, 2014 15:39:14 GMT -5
Saw Marrero last night in Trenton. Made a real nice defensive play on a ground ball to get the runner at the plate instead of going to first, and the infield wasn't in. Also had some loud contact and twice crushed balls out to dead center warning track. I was impressed with him.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 2, 2014 15:45:38 GMT -5
How, on the 20-80 scale would Marrero's defense rate? I ask because thoughout this thread, he's been said to be "similar to, or a tick below" Iglesias'. Now, according to the scale elite is 80; meaning that Andrelton Simmons is an 80 defender at SS. Iglesias is below that, so...70 or 75? Marrero would then be a 65 or 70? I would say 70 off of my observations. Tried to find a scout's ratings, but google was not my friend. The thing that really stands out to me when I watch him play is how instinctive he is. He reminds me of Pedroia by way of he seems to be moving as the pitch is thrown, getting in the right position to make a hard play look easy. He doesn't have the best range, but it is above-average and he makes up for it with his reflexes and instincts. His arm is good, not great. He really impresses me with his footwork, he makes tougher plays look simpler and is great on the double play because his footwork is so good. He has very smooth actions with his glove, but not quite as good as Iglesias.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 2, 2014 15:54:32 GMT -5
How, on the 20-80 scale would Marrero's defense rate? I ask because thoughout this thread, he's been said to be "similar to, or a tick below" Iglesias'. Now, according to the scale elite is 80; meaning that Andrelton Simmons is an 80 defender at SS. Iglesias is below that, so...70 or 75? Marrero would then be a 65 or 70? I've heard 60 range/70 arm for Marrero, or 65 average. That rates well above average.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 2, 2014 19:32:46 GMT -5
Based on previous comments by the brass, that Triple-A players are largely believed to be MLB-ready, Marrero is now a legit option for this season at SS if Drew gets dealt, and Bogaerts stays at third. Might require a full-on rebuild, but that's what I'm reading into this. If Drew gets dealt there would be zero reason to not put Xander back at SS unless they're ready to say he's staying at third forever.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 3, 2014 6:01:36 GMT -5
When Mookie was not throwing well at Lowell he was also slugging .307. He did not have a pro body. Some of his improvement in hitting has been to improve his swing, but some has been from working out as well. Huge muscles do not help you throw, but moving from being a skinny guy who hardly works out to a skinny guy who is more fit can help you throw better.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2014 6:08:41 GMT -5
Based on limited personal observation, I'd throw a 65 or 70 on Marrero's range. Sitting on a four-game series in Manchester, he made at least one unreal play each game. Arm's a cannon too.
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Post by cologneredsox on Jul 3, 2014 8:17:58 GMT -5
Based on these ratings and considering the defensive ability of Swihart and Coyle, Mookie while he played in Portland it really is interesting if some of the very good reuslts of our SP at Portland are supported by this advanced defense. It will be interesting to see if with the promotion of Marrero maybe a slight bump in the results of our SP are to follow.
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