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Post by jdb on Jul 7, 2014 15:29:05 GMT -5
How would you all feel about Tulo? He's way to injury prone but when healthy he's a top 5 player. I'm guessing any conversation starts with Owens and probably has Marrero in it. How much would you give up? Owens, Marrero, Vazquez, one of Webster/Ranado/Barnes/ and maybe Coyle? To much to little? Cargos also mentioned but I'm scared by his splits both home/away and LHP/RHP. www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_26088640/tulo-cargo-feel-ok-trade-winds |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 7, 2014 15:33:45 GMT -5
A lot of talk about Stanton which is hard to see happening. We've seen Cargo mentioned. Does Tulo want out of Colorado? If we think Xander is a 3b, it's a big-bat at a premium position and sets us up to develop a good offensive team. He's signed for 6yr 114m. 19M AAV with an option. Durability concerns of course. We can give them two cheap regulars and a heckuva pitching prospect. Mookie, Marrero, Owens and a lesser pitching prospect??
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Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2014 15:43:49 GMT -5
Here is Tulowitzki's contract: 14:$16M, 15-19:$20M annually, 20:$14M, 21:$15M club option ($4M buyout). He is currently 29; the guaranteed years on his his contract would take him through his age-35 season.
I think any conversation about Tulowitzki starts with Bogaerts. If he didn't have significant health issues and the Red Sox were in more of a win-now phase, I would honestly consider a one-to-one swap of Tulo for Bogaerts (though I'd have to think about it a lot more; the fact that Bogaerts is represented by Boras and is unlikely to sign an extension buying out his prime years factors heavily into my line of thought) (see below for my updated thoughts).
I think a deal is possible without Bogaerts, but it probably takes two of Betts/Owens/Swihart plus a good bit more. Tulo is paid a lot, but he's also one of the best players in baseball, and his contract is actually pretty reasonable once you take into account inflation.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 7, 2014 15:47:48 GMT -5
Here is Tulowitzki's contract: 14:$16M, 15-19:$20M annually, 20:$14M, 21:$15M club option ($4M buyout). He is currently 29; the guaranteed years on his his contract would take him through his age-35 season. I think any conversation about Tulowitzki starts with Bogaerts. If he didn't have significant health issues and the Red Sox were in more of a win-now phase, I would honestly consider a one-to-one swap of Tulo for Bogaerts (though I'd have to think about it a lot more; the fact that Bogaerts is represented by Boras and is unlikely to sign an extension buying out his prime years factors heavily into my line of thought). I think a deal is possible without Bogaerts, but it probably takes two of Betts/Owens/Swihart plus a good bit more. Tulo is paid a lot, but he's also one of the best players in baseball, and his contract is actually pretty reasonable once you take into account inflation. Maybe, they don't think Xander can play short. I didn't see the other proposal when I started thread. jdb and myself must have ESP. 4 minutes apart. |
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Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2014 15:52:08 GMT -5
On second thought, I probably wouldn't trade Bogaerts for Tulowitzki. My line of thought was that if the Red Sox were in the title hunt this year and Bogaerts was in this sort of slump, maybe the single-year/near-term upgrade is worth the long-term loss in value. But over the next 5.5 years, Tulo is unlikely to be somewhere in the range of $70m better than Bogaerts, especially since Tulowitzki is only going to decline going forward while the opposite is true of Bogaerts.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 7, 2014 15:58:22 GMT -5
Tulo in my opinion is the leagues MVP, when healthy that is. He is at the pinnacle of hitters and provides great defense at the most premium position. Health and home field splits are questions, but outside of Trout I don't think any major league player doesn't have some sort of questions attached.
That being said I don't think he would be worth the price. I'm thinking it starts with Owens and Mookie, Marrero as a replacement, and from there you add a AAA pitcher Webster, Barnes, or Ranaudo, and Vazaquez. Maybe swap Shiwhart with Betts. Even with Tulo's comments I don't think the Rockies are shopping him, we would have to pry him out.
These are all guys who will be on the radar in 2015. You take away 2-3 players who would be at league minimum, replace them with free agent at market price, and add $20M in Tulo's salary, and you lose the ability to make other moves, like resign Lester. With Xander, Middlebrooks, Betts, Marrero, Holt, and Cecchinni we have options on the left side, and this move would feel like adding a star for the sake of it, instead of filling a team need. Those are the moves that are best to stay away form.
All in all, Tulo is one of my all time favorite players in my era that was never a Red Sox, and I would be stoked if we got him.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 16:16:59 GMT -5
I'd be interested in making a run at him, but I would've thought we don't have the prospects. I don't know why the asking price would be much lower than the one for Stanton, and most people don't seem to think we could actually pull that off. Tulo is, when healthy, a better player now. If he could be had for Betts and Swihart plus a couple of other high upside guys, or one or 2 of the near-ready pitchers, I would do it I think. If we could keep both Owens and Swihart, I would absolutely do it, because much as I like Mookie, he's the one guy that we might have to force open a spot for, whereas Swihart I think will be a really good catcher, which is rare. Owens should be untouchable at this stage just because of the cost of good pitching on the open market, and the fact that we might lose Lester. Owens is the best internal bet to replace his production in the next few years, even if it's a bit of a long shot that he actually does it
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 16:20:32 GMT -5
I'm not too interested in Tulowitzki at this point. We really don't have anyone in their prime right now. We have either guys who are 3-4 years away from their prime, or guys on the decline.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 16:22:08 GMT -5
I'd be interested in making a run at him, but I would've thought we don't have the prospects. I don't know why the asking price would be much lower than the one for Stanton, and most people don't seem to think we could actually pull that off. Tulo is, when healthy, a better player now. If he could be had for Betts and Swihart plus a couple of other high upside guys, or one or 2 of the near-ready pitchers, I would do it I think. If we could keep both Owens and Swihart, I would absolutely do it, because much as I like Mookie, he's the one guy that we might have to force open a spot for, whereas Swihart I think will be a really good catcher, which is rare. Owens should be untouchable at this stage just because of the cost of good pitching on the open market, and the fact that we might lose Lester. Owens is the best internal bet to replace his production in the next few years, even if it's a bit of a long shot that he actually does it 29 vs. 24. And yeah you'd have to pay for Stanton, but I imagine a deal of that magnitude probably requires an extension. |
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 10:46:32 GMT -5
I'd be interested in making a run at him, but I would've thought we don't have the prospects. I don't know why the asking price would be much lower than the one for Stanton, and most people don't seem to think we could actually pull that off. Tulo is, when healthy, a better player now. If he could be had for Betts and Swihart plus a couple of other high upside guys, or one or 2 of the near-ready pitchers, I would do it I think. If we could keep both Owens and Swihart, I would absolutely do it, because much as I like Mookie, he's the one guy that we might have to force open a spot for, whereas Swihart I think will be a really good catcher, which is rare. Owens should be untouchable at this stage just because of the cost of good pitching on the open market, and the fact that we might lose Lester. Owens is the best internal bet to replace his production in the next few years, even if it's a bit of a long shot that he actually does it 29 vs. 24. And yeah you'd have to pay for Stanton, but I imagine a deal of that magnitude probably requires an extension. Ok but there's a track record involved too. And the question of positional value, depending on where you stand on that. Tulo would give us the best SS in the American League, and a legit middle of the order bat, while freeing us up to make use of trade pieces like Marrero, Middlebrooks and potentially some others if we were to make additional moves, plus his contract seems pretty reasonable. Stanton, despite his performance this year, doesn't have the same track record and is a minus defensively, which is probably a bigger problem in Fenway than in Miami. Beyond that, Tulo has never played 120 games in a season without putting up at least 5 WAR. Basically, I like the fact that he's a very proven commodity, and that if his price is in fact below Stanton's, we should make a move for him, and try to find cheaper options in the outfield |
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 10:53:49 GMT -5
You allude to the two problems with Tulo right there. He's a "proven commodity", but that also means he's at his peak and is likely to only decline due to age going forward. He's been great while healthy, but he's also consistently dealt with minor-to-moderate injuries (he's only reached 600 PAs in three of his seven major-league seasons, including just one of his last four seasons), a trend that will again only accelerate as he ages.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 11:13:24 GMT -5
By the time our young players are ready to be absolute studs (3-4) years, Tulowitzki will be well into his decline.
It might be the reason for trading Lester now as well.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 11:23:31 GMT -5
Stanton also has an injury history, and while it's true that it's less of a concern cause he's younger, I don't think there's a huge gap there. I just think if you could get Tulo for less than what the Marlins are asking for Stanton, which is undoubtedly a ton, and probably more than he's worth right now, then you should definitely make the effort.
As for his being in decline when our young players are ready to be absolute studs, what about Pedroia? He's declining already. If Bradley and bogaerts make solid progress going into next season, there's a pretty strong looking line up there: C-Vazquez/platoon, 1B- Napoli, 2B- Pedroia, 3B- Bogaerts, SS- Tulo, and I'm honestly not sure on the outfield yet. Bradley, Betts, and Victorino? Ortiz is still DHing of course, and there ought to be some solid bench bats too. If we re-sign Lester, that team is a solid bet to win the AL East, and that's not taking into account any other additions that we might make. I think they may be more willing to spend this offseason after seeing where conservatism got them this year, which means that adding another solid bat in the outfield is certainly a possibility
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 11:30:12 GMT -5
Stanton also has an injury history, and while it's true that it's less of a concern cause he's younger, I don't think there's a huge gap there. I just think if you could get Tulo for less than what the Marlins are asking for Stanton, which is undoubtedly a ton, and probably more than he's worth right now, then you should definitely make the effort. As for his being in decline when our young players are ready to be absolute studs, what about Pedroia? He's declining already. If Bradley and bogaerts make solid progress going into next season, there's a pretty strong looking line up there: C-Vazquez/platoon, 1B- Napoli, 2B- Pedroia, 3B- Bogaerts, SS- Tulo, and I'm honestly not sure on the outfield yet. Bradley, Betts, and Victorino? Ortiz is still DHing of course, and there ought to be some solid bench bats too. If we re-sign Lester, that team is a solid bet to win the AL East, and that's not taking into account any other additions that we might make. I think they may be more willing to spend this offseason after seeing where conservatism got them this year, which means that adding another solid bat in the outfield is certainly a possibility Pedroia is Pedroia. It wouldn't shock me if Ben is listening to offers. |
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 11:35:25 GMT -5
Can't see it. The guy just signed an incredibly team-friendly extension when he knew he could probably get at least an additional $40m on the open market with Cano signing that massive deal with the M's. I don't think that totally precludes him getting traded, but I would be pretty shocked, and I think that it would really gut the team as a whole
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 11:37:20 GMT -5
Can't see it. The guy just signed an incredibly team-friendly extension when he knew he could probably get at least an additional $40m on the open market with Cano signing that massive deal with the M's. I don't think that totally precludes him getting traded, but I would be pretty shocked, and I think that it would really gut the team as a whole They signed him before they knew how bad of shape we're in. I don't think this is a quick fix. |
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 12:05:32 GMT -5
Can't see it. The guy just signed an incredibly team-friendly extension when he knew he could probably get at least an additional $40m on the open market with Cano signing that massive deal with the M's. I don't think that totally precludes him getting traded, but I would be pretty shocked, and I think that it would really gut the team as a whole They signed him before they knew how bad of shape we're in. I don't think this is a quick fix. Well I don't agree on how bad the situation is, although it's not exactly a quick fix, I'll concede that. But I think it's wrong to assume that in a year, with reasonable progression from our young guys and the addition of a legit middle of the order bat, this team is a serious contender again. And there's the fact that Pedroia has all the intangibles, is your key clubhouse guy, and is still a pretty good player. You're not going to find a better 2B than him for his price, and this team isn't in need of a complete tear down, just missing a few key pieces. Finally, trading him sends a horrible message to other players you want to extend and free agents. Who wants to sign somewhere where they convince you to take a below market deal with the idea that you'll finish your career there, only to have them turn around and deal you a year and a half later? I really can't see a scenario where that happens |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 12:11:37 GMT -5
They signed him before they knew how bad of shape we're in. I don't think this is a quick fix. Well I don't agree on how bad the situation is, although it's not exactly a quick fix, I'll concede that. But I think it's wrong to assume that in a year, with reasonable progression from our young guys and the addition of a legit middle of the order bat, this team is a serious contender again. And there's the fact that Pedroia has all the intangibles, is your key clubhouse guy, and is still a pretty good player. You're not going to find a better 2B than him for his price, and this team isn't in need of a complete tear down, just missing a few key pieces. Finally, trading him sends a horrible message to other players you want to extend and free agents. Who wants to sign somewhere where they convince you to take a below market deal with the idea that you'll finish your career there, only to have them turn around and deal you a year and a half later? I really can't see a scenario where that happens Let me clarify. I'm not arguing that trading Pedroia likely at all. But the reason for not trading for Tulo remains. I think we're way more than one player away and the number and quality of prospects we'd need to give up would set us back to the point that it wouldn't be enough of an improvement for as long as it should be for it to be worth it. |
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 13:54:34 GMT -5
I agree that we're more than a player away this year, but I'm not sure about next. Hypothetically, if Lester stays and enjoys a similar season to this one, and we acquired a big bat like Tulo, the rest of the line up would need to improve somewhat top to bottom. Still, is it much of a stretch to think that Xander could put up a .280/.350/.430 slash at 3B next year? Or that Betts could be pretty productive in LF if necessary, and Bradley might be able to push his average towards .250 and add a little doubles pop and improve on his K/BB rates? There's a lot of improvement that should come simply as a matter of time (hopefully) while the only guy I'm truly concerned about regressing severely with age is Ortiz. Pedroia's trajectory is worrying, but I think that he's more of a bounce back candidate than a guy who's consistently going to get worse from now on. Worst case he's a gold glove slap hitter at 2B, which isn't ideal, but isn't terrible either. Overall though, plug Tulo in for the at bats taken by Drew, Herrera, Middlebrooks, and whoever else's playing time he would be eating into and there's probably a 6-win improvement there alone. If you're cautiously optimistic on our other young players, there's a pretty good case to be made that this team isn't much more than one elite player away from being competitive again.
I also read today that Tulo might ask for a trade this offseason- that probably reduces the asking price. Looking at our system, I really think we have the depth to deal for a good big league player without seriously compromising the future of the organization. If you scroll down the rankings on this site, you can see a lot of guys who have pretty good shots at becoming solid big league players at least. If we could build a package around Betts and Marrero without including Swihart and Owens and hopefully keeping Devers and Margot too, it's something we should very strongly consider. If we could get Stanton for a similar package, I'd do it in a second, but because I doubt we can, and we'll be able to try to sign him in his prime, I think if we're going to make a big deal, Tulo would be the guy I'd target 1st
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