Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2014 12:43:19 GMT -5
THE RATIONALE
It seems pretty clear that the Sox need to add a corner outfield bat for 2015.
There are presently five candidates to fill three positions next year: RF, LF, and Left Side on Infield (LSI), wherever Xander isn't. Ordinarily that would seem to be enough, but on reflection, it clearly isn't.
Mookie Betts has shown no instincts for the OF and seems likely to be hugely more valuable next year as LSI for us, or 2B for someone else after a major trade, than as an OF. He needs to be a plus defender in the OF to make that switch justifiable, and we can't trust in that happening by next year.
Brock Holt may well be a good MLB OFer, but there's a more or less equal chance that he regresses to the point where he is much more valuable as the first guy off the bench, playing everywhere.
Shane Victorino can't be counted on to stay healthy.
Will Middlebrooks can't be counted on. (He's relevant because you might end up needing to play a starting-quality Holt at 3B.)
Daniel Nava doesn't have the unreliability of these guys. He projects to be an OK starter. But if you end up giving him a job, he's the obvious guy you'd choose to upgrade to someone dangerous. So his best role for next year would seem to be 4th OFer.
If you add a bat, the first four guys are only filling two positions, and that's manageable. If either Mookie or WMB is the LSI, you have either Holt or Victorino as the other corner, with Nava as fallback. If Holt needs to be the 3B, that's less rosy -- but if you acquired two corner OF bats, you would be eliminating any chance of a significant Victorino contribution and quite possibly reducing Holt's role further than you'd like. One extra bat seems to be the sweet spot.
(As an aside, if we do give up at the deadline, Mike Carp has to play 6 times per week thereafter. It's a complete myth that he hit well off the bench last year: he did all his damage in two stretches where he got regular PT due to injuries. Find out what you've got with him, and at the same time you'll also find out whether Nava can still hit decently coming off the bench.)
Next, with David Ortiz as the sole LHB who could hit 3 to 6 in the order, the added bat should very preferably be left-handed. (And note that if Carp mashes for two months, you have the option of adding a RH corner OF bat, trading Napoli, and achieving the same balance.)
THE CANDIDATES
I've taken a long look at all the potential veteran additions. I can count six that are worthy of discussion, and they break down neatly: two young stars, two viable older players, and two longshots.
I want to introduce these guys, mention the omissions, and ask everyone for extra veteran names, or for arguments to eliminate any of these six or to include the guys I eliminated.
And, most importantly, I want nominations for young players (guys more than two years from free agency) who might actually be available. Most such guys are way too valuable to be traded, and therefore only get moved if there's a surplus. Determining whether a team really has a surplus takes some work, and figuring out which extra bat is the one they're likely to move takes even more work, so I've left all that work for others!
Please, please -- don't jump the gun and start arguing for or against any of these six as the guy we should get. Nor do we need to know at this point that player X gives you a warm fuzzy feeling (anywhere in your anatomy). Let's limit the discussion, in the first stage, to WHO should be on the list.
Once we have a final list, I'll post an analysis with some standard and some cool info, and then we can start the debate as to WHICH guy would be the best fit.
And now meet the candidates!
1. Jason Heyward. The Braves have both him and Justin Upton a year from free agency, and the feeling is that they'll deal one this winter and sign the other to an extension. Heyward will be 26 next year and is a tremendous defender in RF.
2. Giancarlo Stanton. Perhaps you've heard of him. He'll be 25 next year, and a free agent at 26. I've argued at length in the Trade Subforum as to why he might be available this winter.
3. Carlos Gonzalez. He'll be 29 next year, and is signed for 3/$53. Having a lost year after a finger injury.
4. Brandon Moss. He'll be 31 and has two years of arbitration left. I'll be shocked if Billy Beane doesn't trade him. Unlike the other LHB, a dead pull hitter who will lose value in Fenway.
5. Justin Upton. You would never want him over Heyward (especially since he's a RHB), but the Braves may have already decided to extend Heyward and shop Upton.
6. Josh Hamilton. Signed for an average of $27.67 a year for his ages 34 through 36, and not nearly worth it -- but likely still a good player. The acquisition cost (including scenarios where the Angels eat a portion of the contract, of course) is thus hugely lower than for the others. This is the guy that maybe shouldn't be on the list.
Guys I eliminated:
Alex Gordon (including an option, signed for 2/$25; he'll be 31). The Royals don't have obvious holes to fill, and could use an upgrade only in RF -- what they need is for Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to hit up to their hype. So I just can't see them trading their best player. I'd love to hear an argument to the contrary.
Jose Bautista (ditto, 2/$28; he'll be 34). I just don't see the Jays dealing within the division unless overwhelmed, and if we're overwhelming someone, why not go for a LHB, and someone younger to boot?
Ryan Braun (signed for 6/$126; he'll be 31). If he hit left-handed I might have included him, but given the baggage, I opted not to. Anyone want to argue why he should be considered? (The contract is not an obstacle; to the extent it's too generous, that simply lowers the acquisition cost.)
All other veteran bats I've judged to be not good enough. But feel free to nominate, and we can discuss whether that's true.
Once again, let's start by talking should this guy be on the list, and not who on the list is best / I like.*
*Yes, I love me some ordered neatness to balance a life clearly on the verge of being overwhelmed by chaos. So humor me!
amfox1 edit: see my note below re: trade proposals.
It seems pretty clear that the Sox need to add a corner outfield bat for 2015.
There are presently five candidates to fill three positions next year: RF, LF, and Left Side on Infield (LSI), wherever Xander isn't. Ordinarily that would seem to be enough, but on reflection, it clearly isn't.
Mookie Betts has shown no instincts for the OF and seems likely to be hugely more valuable next year as LSI for us, or 2B for someone else after a major trade, than as an OF. He needs to be a plus defender in the OF to make that switch justifiable, and we can't trust in that happening by next year.
Brock Holt may well be a good MLB OFer, but there's a more or less equal chance that he regresses to the point where he is much more valuable as the first guy off the bench, playing everywhere.
Shane Victorino can't be counted on to stay healthy.
Will Middlebrooks can't be counted on. (He's relevant because you might end up needing to play a starting-quality Holt at 3B.)
Daniel Nava doesn't have the unreliability of these guys. He projects to be an OK starter. But if you end up giving him a job, he's the obvious guy you'd choose to upgrade to someone dangerous. So his best role for next year would seem to be 4th OFer.
If you add a bat, the first four guys are only filling two positions, and that's manageable. If either Mookie or WMB is the LSI, you have either Holt or Victorino as the other corner, with Nava as fallback. If Holt needs to be the 3B, that's less rosy -- but if you acquired two corner OF bats, you would be eliminating any chance of a significant Victorino contribution and quite possibly reducing Holt's role further than you'd like. One extra bat seems to be the sweet spot.
(As an aside, if we do give up at the deadline, Mike Carp has to play 6 times per week thereafter. It's a complete myth that he hit well off the bench last year: he did all his damage in two stretches where he got regular PT due to injuries. Find out what you've got with him, and at the same time you'll also find out whether Nava can still hit decently coming off the bench.)
Next, with David Ortiz as the sole LHB who could hit 3 to 6 in the order, the added bat should very preferably be left-handed. (And note that if Carp mashes for two months, you have the option of adding a RH corner OF bat, trading Napoli, and achieving the same balance.)
THE CANDIDATES
I've taken a long look at all the potential veteran additions. I can count six that are worthy of discussion, and they break down neatly: two young stars, two viable older players, and two longshots.
I want to introduce these guys, mention the omissions, and ask everyone for extra veteran names, or for arguments to eliminate any of these six or to include the guys I eliminated.
And, most importantly, I want nominations for young players (guys more than two years from free agency) who might actually be available. Most such guys are way too valuable to be traded, and therefore only get moved if there's a surplus. Determining whether a team really has a surplus takes some work, and figuring out which extra bat is the one they're likely to move takes even more work, so I've left all that work for others!
Please, please -- don't jump the gun and start arguing for or against any of these six as the guy we should get. Nor do we need to know at this point that player X gives you a warm fuzzy feeling (anywhere in your anatomy). Let's limit the discussion, in the first stage, to WHO should be on the list.
Once we have a final list, I'll post an analysis with some standard and some cool info, and then we can start the debate as to WHICH guy would be the best fit.
And now meet the candidates!
1. Jason Heyward. The Braves have both him and Justin Upton a year from free agency, and the feeling is that they'll deal one this winter and sign the other to an extension. Heyward will be 26 next year and is a tremendous defender in RF.
2. Giancarlo Stanton. Perhaps you've heard of him. He'll be 25 next year, and a free agent at 26. I've argued at length in the Trade Subforum as to why he might be available this winter.
3. Carlos Gonzalez. He'll be 29 next year, and is signed for 3/$53. Having a lost year after a finger injury.
4. Brandon Moss. He'll be 31 and has two years of arbitration left. I'll be shocked if Billy Beane doesn't trade him. Unlike the other LHB, a dead pull hitter who will lose value in Fenway.
5. Justin Upton. You would never want him over Heyward (especially since he's a RHB), but the Braves may have already decided to extend Heyward and shop Upton.
6. Josh Hamilton. Signed for an average of $27.67 a year for his ages 34 through 36, and not nearly worth it -- but likely still a good player. The acquisition cost (including scenarios where the Angels eat a portion of the contract, of course) is thus hugely lower than for the others. This is the guy that maybe shouldn't be on the list.
Guys I eliminated:
Alex Gordon (including an option, signed for 2/$25; he'll be 31). The Royals don't have obvious holes to fill, and could use an upgrade only in RF -- what they need is for Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to hit up to their hype. So I just can't see them trading their best player. I'd love to hear an argument to the contrary.
Jose Bautista (ditto, 2/$28; he'll be 34). I just don't see the Jays dealing within the division unless overwhelmed, and if we're overwhelming someone, why not go for a LHB, and someone younger to boot?
Ryan Braun (signed for 6/$126; he'll be 31). If he hit left-handed I might have included him, but given the baggage, I opted not to. Anyone want to argue why he should be considered? (The contract is not an obstacle; to the extent it's too generous, that simply lowers the acquisition cost.)
All other veteran bats I've judged to be not good enough. But feel free to nominate, and we can discuss whether that's true.
Once again, let's start by talking should this guy be on the list, and not who on the list is best / I like.*
*Yes, I love me some ordered neatness to balance a life clearly on the verge of being overwhelmed by chaos. So humor me!
amfox1 edit: see my note below re: trade proposals.
