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Should the Red Sox trade Dustin Pedroia?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 5, 2014 16:23:53 GMT -5
I think that even the discussion of trading Pedroia shows the disloyalty of some Boston fans. No, he isn't producing MVP numbers like he used to, but he still is a solid hitter who plays stellar defense. He is the heart and soul of this team, and his hustle and team spirit is a great influence on the younger guys. He is under a reasonable contract, and he LOVES Boston. He accepted a huge discount to stay in Boston long term. I think his hitting will improve, as he always does the last few months of the year. I hope he retires in a Boston uniform, even is he is hitting .250 in the final years. That's ridiculous. He accepted a discount to play under the terms of the contract. The contract does not have a full no-trade. If he were agreeable only to playing for Boston, he would have insisted on a no-trade. Do you think that, somehow, he got a "trust me" from the owner that he would never be traded? I don't think so. I hope he retires in a Boston uniform but not if his career trajectory follows the late-career Jeter fade - Jeter will be paid $83+mm over his last five seasons and has produced 5.3 WAR to date. Pedroia turns 31 in less than two weeks and, offensively, has noticeably slipped this year.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 17, 2014 13:56:23 GMT -5
Will Pedroia win the Gold Glove award again this season? Dustin is 2nd in fielding percentage at 996. Dustin has made spectacular plays left and right this season. And has only made 2 errors. DWAR is at 2.2 behind Kinsler. I think Dustin wins it.
Thoughts?
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 18, 2014 11:55:20 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d According to Fangraphs, Pedroia has been the best 2B in the league. Although I don't fully trust the defensive metrics, especially in a 1 year sample. Pedroia has been consistently good though. Gold glove is voted on, and from what I heard in the past, some managers don't pay much attention to it. In the past, the award went based on hitting stats or the value of the players name. So the player who deserved it, and the player who was awarded it haven't always matched. In Pedroia's situation, I think he both deserves it and can win it. An example: I believe that JBJ won't win a gold glove, but probably deserves two of them this year alone.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 26, 2014 23:18:28 GMT -5
I was just coming in to post this exact thread but here it is waiting for me.
Today the Patriots traded Logan Mankins and in the past they traded Richard Seymour. Both trades were questioned at the time but IMO both were traded at the exact time, right before there value plummeted. I mention this because we held on to Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek too long. That time is coming with Pedroia. Do we do the right thing a la Richard Seymour and Logan Mankins or the wrong thing a la Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek? I think Mookie might decide to make the decision for us.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 27, 2014 5:39:46 GMT -5
Fun fact: Per both ZiPS and Steamer, Pedroia is still a borderline top 10 player in baseball (that's MLB, not just the AL). And we know how friendly his contract is. I'll trade him if we're getting, like, Strasburg in return.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 29, 2014 0:21:44 GMT -5
I was just coming in to post this exact thread but here it is waiting for me. Today the Patriots traded Logan Mankins and in the past they traded Richard Seymour. Both trades were questioned at the time but IMO both were traded at the exact time, right before there value plummeted. I mention this because we held on to Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek too long. That time is coming with Pedroia. Do we do the right thing a la Richard Seymour and Logan Mankins or the wrong thing a la Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek? I think Mookie might decide to make the decision for us. Those trades were made because the team felt Mankins and Seymour weren't worth what they were making anymore and valued the salary cap space more than the player taking it up. The issue with Mike Lowell is that they rewarded him for his 2007 performance with way too big a contract for a player who was due to break down, a mistake that it seems this front office is determined to not repeat as evidenced by its treatment of the Jon Lester situation, to use an example (not saying they're correct in doing so or not, just pointing out the philosophical shift). Varitek made $5m, $3m, and $2m in his final three years - he was basically being paid commensurate with what he was doing on the field because the Red Sox had no better option. It's not like they were holding on to him thinking he'd return to form. So I'd disagree with your characterizations of what went down in those situations. Here, there are 74 players in baseball who have a higher salary than Pedroia (per www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2014/player/all/). This list includes Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Nick Markakis, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabathia. Using fWAR, Pedroia is ranked 34th in baseball, even in what is inarguably a down year for him offensively. Using bWAR, he's 22nd or 23rd. (Just using these as rough estimates) He's still arguably underpaid and he's under contract. And that is why he's not going anywhere.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 29, 2014 7:14:53 GMT -5
Furthermore, Pedey signed here for a real hometown discount thereby doing the Sox a favor. This flies in the face of agent strategy and Players Association creed,i.e. get every penny out out of the owners for what you are worth.
Trading him now would cloud the franchise for years discouraging players from signing here.
The loser here is Betts. His best position is second base and he'll always be blocked. Eventually he'll be blocked in the outfield as Castillo debuts and the team seeks another bat (Stanton, Heyward) in trade. Unfortunately, Mookie's best years will be played in another organization.
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Post by coke0myfavdrink on Aug 29, 2014 9:53:23 GMT -5
I would trade pedroia if and only if trading pedroia led to the red sox getting stanton and not giving up mookie betts or brock holt.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Aug 29, 2014 10:57:40 GMT -5
Yeah if we lose Holt were doomed
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Post by coke0myfavdrink on Aug 29, 2014 12:05:09 GMT -5
Yeah if we lose Holt were doomed Lol my point is I want a 2nd baseman in house And holt has done okay this year.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 29, 2014 19:54:36 GMT -5
I would trade pedroia if and only if trading pedroia led to the red sox getting stanton and not giving up mookie betts or brock holt. Pedroia is not going anywhere, Pedroia is the player you build around. He is a Hall of Famer.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2014 21:15:37 GMT -5
I would trade pedroia if and only if trading pedroia led to the red sox getting stanton and not giving up mookie betts or brock holt. Pedroia is not going anywhere, Pedroia is the player you build around. He is a Hall of Famer. I'm not sure that's going to be accurate. I mean Nomar looked more like a HOFer than Pedroia did and that kind of fell apart by the time he hit 30. Pedroia has a shot, but his offensive numbers have trended downward the last few seasons. He's still a very good player, but he's already showing signs of decline. His contract is reasonable so he's going nowhere.
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Post by 11mikem on Aug 29, 2014 21:19:42 GMT -5
Let's face it, if Belichick was in charge of the Sox, that would be the way to go. He'd trade a good player on the down slope of his career, get something in return and make room for the youngster. No need to twist yourself into knots trying to fit Betts into the lineup in a spot he's not really suited for and/or feel forced to trade him just because you have an aging fan favorite at his position. Honestly, what would be best for the TEAM? Keep Pedroia and not use Betts where he will help the most (or trade him when you'll need a second baseman in a very few years)? Or keep Betts, play him at second and focus on just getting one more real outfielder? It amazes me how the Sox and their fans tie themselves into knots over a situation that, when looked at clearly, seems to have one rational answer.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 29, 2014 21:47:58 GMT -5
Pedroia is not going anywhere, Pedroia is the player you build around. He is a Hall of Famer. I'm not sure that's going to be accurate. I mean Nomar looked more like a HOFer than Pedroia did and that kind of fell apart by the time he hit 30. Pedroia has a shot, but his offensive numbers have trended downward the last few seasons. He's still a very good player, but he's already showing signs of decline. His contract is reasonable so he's going nowhere. If you look at Pedroias numbers, He is a career 300 hitter, 1400 hits, 3 gold gloves(and he will win one this year so thats 4) that alone makes him a legit candidate. If Dustin stays healthy(which he has besides 2010s fluke injury) Dustin will approach 2400 hits, 200 Hrs, and 1000 RBIS and 6 Gold Gloves. HOF in my opinion
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 30, 2014 5:49:03 GMT -5
Nomar is a Hall of Famer. Was just inducted.
Pedey isnt getting traded for the following reasons:
1. Still is underpaid even in down year and his bat has shown more pop lately. (See jmeis post)
2. He signed for a big discount and it would destroy their credibility and thus hinder their ability to sign other players. Dustin is no Bronson. (See sibby's post)
3. He's got no trade protection
This thread should be locked....
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 7:37:13 GMT -5
I can see the argument for trading Pedroia. Even if he's underpaid, he's still a sell-high candidate insofar as his reputation and track record mean that he likely has higher perceived value than actual projected value. He's an undersized second baseman with a history of injuries (the fact that he's played through them much of his career does not change the fact that he's often nicked up) entering his 30s who has seen his offensive production slip significantly in recent years. There's a good chance that he'll never have a season as good as this one again, and this season is already a pretty down one, with what is likely an unsustainably elite defensive pace (both UZR and DRS see this as his best defensive season to date on a rate-adjusted basis) making up for continued decline on the offensive end.
Think about it this way: relative to contract status (Pedroia: $96.5m over the next seven years; Betts: three years' pre-arb, three years' arbitration) and age, there's a good chance that Mookie Betts provides more projected value (taking into account notions of surplus value, etc.) than Pedroia does. That might be true even though Pedroia is almost certainly the better player as of right now. Age just really matters, and that makes a 22-year-old Betts a better bet (no pun intended) than a 32-year-old Pedroia, even if the 32-year-old Pedroia is currently a four/five-win player. But because Pedroia has a longer track record, he almost certainly has higher trade value than Betts does, and I doubt it's close.
Of course, there's a good argument to be made that vastly below-market, proven star-level production in the short-term should be valued more highly than the cheaper but riskier profile that Betts offers. A guy like Pedroia who is a near-lock for four win production next year at just $12.5m is just incredibly valuable, even if you also have to take on his more highly-paid decline years. That's especially true for a win-now team like the one that the front office is apparently trying to build in 2015 (at least based on the return they sought in their trade deadline deals). There's a good chance Betts will be that good at some point in his career, but I wouldn't count on it from a 22-year-old in his first full major league season. But on a strict $/WAR basis? Even if you add some measure of discount rate (such that near-term production is more valued than long-term production), I think I'd still take Betts and his contract over Pedroia and his. I think it's relatively close, though, and would like to hear others' thoughts on the matter.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 7:51:12 GMT -5
That said, there's a reason GMs almost never make trades like this and Belichick is somewhat (in)famous for being one of the few willing to do so. Most front offices do not have the kind of job security to be able to confidently make a move like this and risk the near-certainty of being fired if it does not work out in the next year or two. Similarly, because of the wobbly chair (i.e., the precarious job security of most GMs), most teams strongly value certain near-term production over more uncertain long-term production.
Moreover, there are real costs that come with trading a franchise icon, some of which are more easily quantifiable/tangible (merchandizing/advertising/ticket sales, ability to sign future stars to team-friendly contracts) and some of which are less so (general values of loyalty and legacy). This ownership group in particular seems to be somewhat sensitive to so-called 'optics' (see the badmouthing of every player who leaves town, the willingness to sign Ortiz to an extension, etc). As such, it's nearly impossible to see a trade of Pedroia happening, even though I think it should be something that is certainly on the table.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 8:01:28 GMT -5
Nomar is a Hall of Famer. Was just inducted. Pedey isnt getting traded for the following reasons: 1. Still is underpaid even in down year and his bat has shown more pop lately. (See jmeis post) 2. He signed for a big discount and it would destroy their credibility and thus hinder their ability to sign other players. Dustin is no Bronson. (See sibby's post) 3. He's got no trade protection This thread should be locked.... Three quick nit-picks: Nomar was just inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame. He is almost certainly not going to be inducted into the Cooperstown National Baseball HoF, which is what they were discussing above. He is entering his first year of eligibility in 2015 and I doubt he comes close to reaching the necessary threshold, especially considering the crowded ballots of late. Pedroia's contract does not contain a full no-trade clause. It contains a limited no-trade clause, which gives him the ability to veto a trade to a select number of teams ( source). I don't think there are any reports as to the size of that list or the teams that are on it, however (though I'll note that the Red Sox are one of those organizations that are generally very hesitant to include extensive no-trade clauses in their contracts-- it's been an issue in past FA contract negotiations). It is a factor, though far from a prohibitive one. (ADD: note, however, that Pedroia is two years away from achieving full 10/5 no-trade protection.) I didn't make any posts about how Pedroia is underpaid (though I certainly agree that this is the case). I think you're referring to Hatfield's post above. That said, the fact that he's underpaid does not, on its own, mean he won't or shouldn't be traded. If the surplus value obtained in a trade is greater than the surplus value he'd provide on his current contract, a trade may still make sense. (Of course, it may be difficult to trade an underpaid franchise icon for many of the reasons I discuss above, but that's largely a separate matter.)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2014 12:26:25 GMT -5
I think you could possibly get away with moving him to a winning franchise. But I think to save face with the MLBPA and agents in general, they should make sure Pedroia isn't furious with the place he would hypothetically go to. That being said, I would be shocked if he went anywhere.
It's also way too early to call him a future hall of famer. It's just as easy to see him have to retire too early because of his body breaking down.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 30, 2014 16:56:38 GMT -5
The Nomar comment was an obvious joke (or so I thought)
Building a team solely off of $/WAR and ignoring money in the bank production (exaggerated terminology) is risky business and not a recipe for winning a WS in my opinion. Being a big market team has this advantage. Balance between the two is important though.
So sure you can make a paper argument to trade Pedroia but it's just bad business to have a star player take a home town discount then trade him. Their freaking business model revolves around guys signing early and taking below market deals. It's idiotic to do something to hurt that.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 30, 2014 16:58:32 GMT -5
Oh yea and no trade protection does not equal full no trade. It does limit market value and I am willing to be it's pretty significant protection.
In any event there is a close to zero percent chance they'd even entertain it so discussing is pointless
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Post by larrycook on Aug 30, 2014 17:47:34 GMT -5
Yes, yes, yes!
Trade pedroia to San Fran or Miami. Both need an upgrade at that position.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2014 11:16:30 GMT -5
There is zero point in comparing football and baseball. The salary cap is what makes teams act like they do in football, so it's not like Belichik would trade Pedroia if he were a baseball GM. We don't need to trade Pedroia to keep Tom Brady.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 3, 2014 16:16:09 GMT -5
I was just coming in to post this exact thread but here it is waiting for me. Today the Patriots traded Logan Mankins and in the past they traded Richard Seymour. Both trades were questioned at the time but IMO both were traded at the exact time, right before there value plummeted. I mention this because we held on to Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek too long. That time is coming with Pedroia. Do we do the right thing a la Richard Seymour and Logan Mankins or the wrong thing a la Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek? I think Mookie might decide to make the decision for us. Those trades were made because the team felt Mankins and Seymour weren't worth what they were making anymore and valued the salary cap space more than the player taking it up. The issue with Mike Lowell is that they rewarded him for his 2007 performance with way too big a contract for a player who was due to break down, a mistake that it seems this front office is determined to not repeat as evidenced by its treatment of the Jon Lester situation, to use an example (not saying they're correct in doing so or not, just pointing out the philosophical shift). Varitek made $5m, $3m, and $2m in his final three years - he was basically being paid commensurate with what he was doing on the field because the Red Sox had no better option. It's not like they were holding on to him thinking he'd return to form. So I'd disagree with your characterizations of what went down in those situations. Here, there are 74 players in baseball who have a higher salary than Pedroia (per www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2014/player/all/). This list includes Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Nick Markakis, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabathia. Using fWAR, Pedroia is ranked 34th in baseball, even in what is inarguably a down year for him offensively. Using bWAR, he's 22nd or 23rd. (Just using these as rough estimates) He's still arguably underpaid and he's under contract. And that is why he's not going anywhere. He shouldn't be traded because of the hometown discount plus the fact that he is hitting much better now that his injury problems have cleared up until that right cross from Forsythe. Hope that doesn't slow him down again. I digress, we shouldn't be trading the heart and soul of this team. Mookie Betts is adapting to the outfield quite well.
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Post by redsox4242 on Sept 3, 2014 18:42:43 GMT -5
Those trades were made because the team felt Mankins and Seymour weren't worth what they were making anymore and valued the salary cap space more than the player taking it up. The issue with Mike Lowell is that they rewarded him for his 2007 performance with way too big a contract for a player who was due to break down, a mistake that it seems this front office is determined to not repeat as evidenced by its treatment of the Jon Lester situation, to use an example (not saying they're correct in doing so or not, just pointing out the philosophical shift). Varitek made $5m, $3m, and $2m in his final three years - he was basically being paid commensurate with what he was doing on the field because the Red Sox had no better option. It's not like they were holding on to him thinking he'd return to form. So I'd disagree with your characterizations of what went down in those situations. Here, there are 74 players in baseball who have a higher salary than Pedroia (per www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2014/player/all/). This list includes Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Nick Markakis, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, and CC Sabathia. Using fWAR, Pedroia is ranked 34th in baseball, even in what is inarguably a down year for him offensively. Using bWAR, he's 22nd or 23rd. (Just using these as rough estimates) He's still arguably underpaid and he's under contract. And that is why he's not going anywhere. He shouldn't be traded because of the hometown discount plus the fact that he is hitting much better now that his injury problems have cleared up until that right cross from Forsythe. Hope that doesn't slow him down again. I digress, we shouldn't be trading the heart and soul of this team. Mookie Betts is adapting to the outfield quite well. Thank you!!!! What, he isn't entitled to ONE bad year. Give Dustin a break people, He batted 300 last year with a torn ligament in his thumb!!!! Guess who wouldn't play through that this season, Josh Hamilton. Dustin is the heart and soul of this team as congusgambler33 said. 2 hours ago
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