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Post by ethanbein on Aug 9, 2014 21:12:01 GMT -5
It seems like most people here would be pretty happy trading one of Betts, Swihart, or Owens straight up for Hamels, but even that seems like too much to give up for him. Estimates have put the value of prospects of that caliber in the range of $30 million dollars, at least. Trading say, Betts for Hamels would be pretty much equivalent to giving Hamels 4/126 on the open market (if you ignore the option). Hamels is an excellent pitcher right now, probably equivalent to Lester, but if you include the value of prospects it looks like it will be cheaper to just sign Lester in free agency this offseason.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 9, 2014 21:25:36 GMT -5
It seems like most people here would be pretty happy trading one of Betts, Swihart, or Owens straight up for Hamels, but even that seems like too much to give up for him. Estimates have put the value of prospects of that caliber in the range of $30 million dollars, at least. Trading say, Betts for Hamels would be pretty much equivalent to giving Hamels 4/126 on the open market (if you ignore the option). Hamels is an excellent pitcher right now, probably equivalent to Lester, but if you include the value of prospects it looks like it will be cheaper to just sign Lester in free agency this offseason. If they could sign Lester, they wouldn't need to trade for Hamels (who is a similar pitcher to Lester). So, you should assume for purposes of this thread that they cannot or will not sign Lester. You should also assume that neither Owens nor Johnson will be ready to start next season in the rotation and that Buchholz/Kelly/RDLR and one of Webster/Ranaudo/Workman will start next season in the rotation, leaving one spot (the #1 spot) open. Your realistic choices are (1) sign a free agent (not Lester or Scherzer, in all likelihood) or (2) trade for a pitcher. So would you rather (1) sign Shields for 3/60 and give up a 2nd round draft pick (assuming the 1st rounder is protected), with a 4th year option or (2) trade Owens/2nd pitcher/Coyle for Hamels? Ideally, you sign Lester for 5/110 but I think that ship has sailed. I don't think people would be "happy" trading one of Betts, Swihart or Owens straight up for Hamels, but rather people acknowledge that trading for Hamels will cost a top 25 prospect, plus additional assets. edit: Kelly in the rotation
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 9, 2014 22:10:59 GMT -5
Your realistic choices are (1) sign a free agent (not Lester or Scherzer, in all likelihood) or (2) trade for a pitcher. So would you rather (1) sign Shields for 3/60 and give up a 2nd round draft pick (assuming the 1st rounder is protected), with a 4th year option or (2) trade Owens/2nd pitcher/Coyle for Hamels? Ideally, you sign Lester for 5/110 but I think that ship has sailed. I don't think people would be "happy" trading one of Betts, Swihart or Owens straight up for Hamels, but rather people acknowledge that trading for Hamels will cost a top 25 prospect, plus additional assets. If that's all it takes to get Shirelds, option 1 please. Shields isn't as good as Hamels, but he's cheaper in dollars by a lot, and costs no prospects (only a marginal draft pick). The Red Sox may be a high payroll team, but they could put that money to good use elsewhere (say, signing Chase Headley). I see no reason to overpay for Hameks even if Lester is, for whatever reason, not an option.
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Post by jmei on Aug 10, 2014 10:55:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Betts or Swihart for Hamels-- elite position-player prospects are just too valuable. I'd consider Owens+, though, but I'm not super high on Owens.
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Post by jdb on Aug 10, 2014 12:15:30 GMT -5
If we get the Cuban CFer would you? Im starting to think that might happen and it opens us to deal Mookie for a top pitcher.
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Post by jmei on Aug 10, 2014 12:51:09 GMT -5
I still would probably hesitate to do so for Hamels, for many of the reasons ethanbein discusses above. I'm open to trading Betts, but it has to be for an elite position player (think Tulo, Stanton, Heyward, J. Upton, CarGo).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 10, 2014 16:45:27 GMT -5
I would trade JBJ+ for him, but no way Would I give up Betts unless it's for a guy like Stanton. I wouldn't even trade Betts for Tulo. Tulo has injury problems and his road splits this year aren't impressive enough for me to commit to giving up years and years of cheap Mookie for him. Mookie is gonna be a stud.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 8:48:19 GMT -5
I'm not sure how much excess value Hamels has at his salary.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 11, 2014 10:05:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure how much excess value Hamels has at his salary. I have to agree with this. I believe so far Hamels has slightly outplayed his contract. Going forward does anyone project him to outplay his contract? If that is the case wouldn't we be better off spending salary on the open market?
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Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2014 10:25:25 GMT -5
Considering inflation, Hamels definitely should provide some surplus value. Oliver projects him to accumulate 13.6 wins over the next four years, during which time he'll be paid $90m. That's a $/WAR of $6.6m, which is about market value right now and will become below-market as the market price of $/WAR increases.
There's also the fact that he'd only require four guaranteed years, which is significantly shorter than the market norm for a pitcher of his quality, and the fact that he wouldn't require the team to give up a draft pick for him.
Of course, the question still remains whether he provides enough surplus value to make it worth trading [insert prospect package here] for him.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 10:47:24 GMT -5
I'm assuming that his option has to be picked up to be traded to a blocked team like the Red Sox and that makes it 5/114.
Is the $6.5 million/WAR for pitchers based on fWAR? Lester this season has a 5.1 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR for example. And in 2012, it was 3.1 - 0.7. Big difference. Hamels seems to be favored by bWAR though which doesn't seem to be typical.
The Oliver projections seem really, really optimistic in that he'd average 215 innings never missing a start, his K rate wouldn't drop much at all and his walk rate would decrease.
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Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2014 11:45:37 GMT -5
The $/win stuff is mostly derived using Fangraphs' WAR, but since it has the same scale as B-R WAR and the calculations involve aggregating all the free agents in a given offseason, it shouldn't make a difference. Multiple analyses have found a number in that neighborhood.
Oliver projections are pretty terrible, but I think most projection systems would still have Hamels producing at least a slight surplus.
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Post by bbscouts on Aug 25, 2014 18:13:38 GMT -5
I think Amaro and the Phillies have been asking too much for their players in trades. I like Cole Hamels and if the Red Sox want to compete for a World Series next year I think the play is to sign Lester and get Hamels for one top prospect and maybe some B level prospects. Lester and Hamels together would something to get excited about. I doubt it happens. Mookie seems to be the guy squeezed out of a position by Castillo so maybe he would go in a trade.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 25, 2014 18:28:56 GMT -5
I think Amaro and the Phillies have been asking too much for their players in trades. I like Cole Hamels and if the Red Sox want to compete for a World Series next year I think the play is to sign Lester and get Hamels for one top prospect and maybe some B level prospects. Lester and Hamels together would something to get excited about. I doubt it happens. Mookie seems to be the guy squeezed out of a position by Castillo so maybe he would go in a trade. Why would they give such a discount for a guy with an era in the two's instead of shopping him to the teams that miss out on Scherzer and Lester?
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Post by bryce on Aug 25, 2014 19:21:41 GMT -5
Can this trade be extended into a blockbuster including Hamels and Domonic Brown? Some columnist say Brown will fit well in Fenway Park.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 25, 2014 19:33:18 GMT -5
Can this trade be extended into a blockbuster including Hamels and Domonic Brown? Some columnist say Brown will fit well in Fenway Park. Who? And why should we believe him/her?
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Post by bryce on Aug 25, 2014 19:38:29 GMT -5
Can this trade be extended into a blockbuster including Hamels and Domonic Brown? Some columnist say Brown will fit well in Fenway Park. Who? And why should we believe him/her? You don't know Domonic Brown? He is Phillies' leftfielder now!
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Post by bbscouts on Aug 25, 2014 20:02:48 GMT -5
Why would they give such a discount for a guy with an era in the two's instead of shopping him to the teams that miss out on Scherzer and Lester?Yeah, the Phillies don't need to drop payroll so will probably ask for the moon for Hamels. Not worth it most likely and better for the Red Sox to be patient with their top prospects.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 25, 2014 20:47:36 GMT -5
You don't know Domonic Brown? He is Phillies' leftfielder now! Umm...are we talking about the same Domonic Brown of the -1.3 career WAR and 76 wRC+ this season? As nice as a LHH OF would be, I'll pass, thanks.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 25, 2014 21:48:57 GMT -5
Who? And why should we believe him/her? You don't know Domonic Brown? He is Phillies' leftfielder now! I'm talking about the columnist. I already know who Domonic Brown is.
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Post by bryce on Aug 25, 2014 22:51:06 GMT -5
You don't know Domonic Brown? He is Phillies' leftfielder now! Umm...are we talking about the same Domonic Brown of the -1.3 career WAR and 76 wRC+ this season? As nice as a LHH OF would be, I'll pass, thanks. In spite of Heyward,is there any other available LH outfielders that worth us to purse?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 26, 2014 5:32:41 GMT -5
Umm...are we talking about the same Domonic Brown of the -1.3 career WAR and 76 wRC+ this season? As nice as a LHH OF would be, I'll pass, thanks. In spite of Heyward,is there any other available LH outfielders that worth us to purse? What's the point of trading for a LHH if the RHHs we have now are better against RHP?
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 26, 2014 15:14:01 GMT -5
I think Amaro and the Phillies have been asking too much for their players in trades. I like Cole Hamels and if the Red Sox want to compete for a World Series next year I think the play is to sign Lester and get Hamels for one top prospect and maybe some B level prospects. Lester and Hamels together would something to get excited about. I doubt it happens. Mookie seems to be the guy squeezed out of a position by Castillo so maybe he would go in a trade. Why would they give such a discount for a guy with an era in the two's instead of shopping him to the teams that miss out on Scherzer and Lester?He's a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 being paid roughly what he's worth for the next 4 seasons. He's good but he's not a very valuable asset. However, it's clear the Phillies don't look at things the way most teams do nowadays so it's quite possible you're right and they will end up stuck with him.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2014 6:06:37 GMT -5
Umm...are we talking about the same Domonic Brown of the -1.3 career WAR and 76 wRC+ this season? As nice as a LHH OF would be, I'll pass, thanks. In spite of Heyward,is there any other available LH outfielders that worth us to purse? None. Zero. And the fact that you brought up trading for possibly the worst player in the major leagues should be an indication that you're at the end of the road.
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Post by jmei on Aug 27, 2014 6:33:52 GMT -5
Let's keep this to Hanels.
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