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The Andrew Miller trade proposal thread
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 11:32:46 GMT -5
Rob Biertempfel ?@biertempfeltrib 7m
#RedSox are shopping lefty Andrew Miller. #pirates are interested, have been scouting sox for couple of weeks.
David O'Brien ?@dobrienajc 10m
Am hearing now that #RedSox lefty Andrew Miller is indeed available. #Braves are still on him, have scout following team.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 11:34:30 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 11:39:28 GMT -5
I think you can look at the Soria deal (yes, I realize that he has a team option at $7mm) as the ceiling for what Miller may obtain:
Thompson and Knebel were both B- prospects in a very weak system, which is why both were top 5 prospects in that system. (mlb.com now rates them as the 6th and 7th best prospect in the Rangers system)
Besides ATL and PIT, I think you can add BAL, TOR, DET, LAD, WAS and KC to the list.
With the added competition, and assuming no Miller/Lester or Miller/Gomes package deals on the horizon, here are my thoughts on possible trade packages.
I don't currently see MFY, TB, OAK, LAA, SEA, MIL, CIN or SF as trade candidates for Miller.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 27, 2014 11:52:17 GMT -5
Although Atlanta may have shown the most interest, I am much more interested in the other teams' farm systems. Atlanta, in my opinion, has a bottom-5 farm system so best case is to play their interest off some of these other orgs to try to drive up the price. Specifically, I would love to get Washington seriously involved in the bidding as they might be willing to bump up the value just to prevent Atlanta from getting him.
Either way, I think something similar to the Soria return would be an impressive haul for Miller.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jul 27, 2014 12:08:26 GMT -5
With the Braves id want Carlos Salazar and Jason Hursh. Dont think we get back Sims or Perraza unless we offered something else back also which would prob be to much and not worth it. Unless that something was Holt.
Id Rather trade with alot of other teams then the Braves because the Braves system isnt the best.
The Pirates have interest in Miller and I bet they like Lackey, who could be a affordable top of the rotation arm they want and need. So offer Miller, Lackey and Carp/Holt for Polanco and lower prospect or two if we get a no which id expect then offer the same players for Bell, a lower prospect with high upside but far away, and one of Meadows, Mcquire, or Glasnow. Think the second one is realistic and a good return.
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Post by jdb on Jul 27, 2014 12:08:32 GMT -5
Although Atlanta may have shown the most interest, I am much more interested in the other teams' farm systems. Atlanta, in my opinion, has a bottom-5 farm system so best case is to play their interest off some of these other orgs to try to drive up the price. Specifically, I would love to get Washington seriously involved in the bidding as they might be willing to bump up the value just to prevent Atlanta from getting him. Either way, I think something similar to the Soria return would be an impressive haul for Miller. Agree on the Braves system. |
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 27, 2014 12:26:59 GMT -5
Miller for Jose Peraza, who has had a solid season in AA for the Braves. he is a 2B/SS prospect. only 20 years old.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 12:45:20 GMT -5
In terms of ranking the players I listed, I would probably order them as follows by overall prospect-ness:
Mondesi (KC)
Bell (PIT)
Kingham (PIT)
Dozier (KC)
Sims (ATL)
Hanson (PIT)
Cole (WAS)
Taylor (WAS)
Manaea (KC)
Peraza (ATL)
Almonte (KC)
Cabrera (ATL)
Souza (WAS)
I would be pushing for a position player, so I would rather have Taylor than Cole from WAS, Peraza rather than Sims from ATL, Bell or Hanson rather than Kingham from PIT and Mondesi or Dozier rather than Manaea from KC.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 27, 2014 13:09:26 GMT -5
Is it too much of a stretch to get a player like Peraza or Bell if we offered Miller?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 27, 2014 13:30:08 GMT -5
Norris and Harvey are B+ prospects now. Would your trade Owens for Miller? Because that's pretty much what it would be like for Baltimore or Toronto.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 13:31:05 GMT -5
Is it too much of a stretch to get a player like Peraza or Bell if we offered Miller? Personally, I think Peraza is obtainable and Bell is probably not, straight up for Miller. Alen Hanson, who has had disciplinary issues at Altoona but also is an Eastern League all-star, is a guy I think we can obtain in a Miller trade, together with a 2nd prospect. I think he's worn out his welcome with PIT and BOS can leverage that to get a 2nd prospect in the trade (perhaps giving them Carp, a player in which PIT has previously shown interest). |
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 13:31:48 GMT -5
Norris and Harvey are B+ prospects now. Would your trade Owens for Miller? Because that's pretty much what it would be like for Baltimore or Toronto. I am aware of that. Did you read what I wrote? |
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2014 13:38:51 GMT -5
I think the above analysis is extremely optimistic. Soria is just about as good as Miller but comes with that extra year of team control, and most analysts think the Rangers clearly won that trade. Moreover, a B prospect does not necessarily equate to two B- prospects (quality is more valuable than quantity). There are also a bunch of other lefty relievers on the market, albeit no one who is better than Miller.
As such, I don't think there's much of a chance that Miller returns a package as good as the Soria one, and I would be shocked if the Red Sox could get someone like Mondesi or Bell or Cole (or any other B prospect) straight-up for Miller. Maybe if they include peripheral pieces like Gomes or Drew or Carp, but even that is unlikely IMO. If you read some of the Pirates blogs, they don't even want to give up Bell for Lester, let alone Miller.
I expect a package slightly to moderately better than the Peavy one. Maybe a back-end top 100 guy plus another piece, or one top 75ish guy (and even that seems optimistic for a rental reliever). Expecting to get someone who cracked all the midseason top 50 lists is just setting yourself up to be disappointed.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 13:49:51 GMT -5
We will see. I am optimistic about the return for Miller. I don't think Bell or Cole will ultimately be obtainable, for different reasons.
DET made a preemptive offer for Soria. Ben will hopefully have a bidding war between PIT and ATL (with WAS, KC and perhaps others on the fringe) for Miller, who is clearly the best LHRP on the trade market. The top seven teams in the NL are currently within four games of each other. A trade for an important piece like Miller could make the difference between going to the playoffs and staying home.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 27, 2014 13:50:32 GMT -5
Norris and Harvey are B+ prospects now. Would your trade Owens for Miller? Because that's pretty much what it would be like for Baltimore or Toronto. I am aware of that. Did you read what I wrote? Yeah just clearing the air because people have discussed them in other threads before, undervaluing them. You're post explained how that isn't going to happen, not trying to call you out on anything haha. |
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2014 14:31:05 GMT -5
DET made a preemptive offer for Soria. Ben will hopefully have a bidding war between PIT and ATL (with WAS, KC and perhaps others on the fringe) for Miller, who is clearly the best LHRP on the trade market. The top seven teams in the NL are currently within four games of each other. A trade for an important piece like Miller could make the difference between going to the playoffs and staying home. Bidding wars don't escalate like this when there are reasonably comparable alternatives available at a lower price. Guys like Tony Sipp and Oliver Perez probably aren't as good as Miller, but the gap is not that huge, and there are guys like Antonio Bastardo and James Russell and Neal Cotts who should be available as well. Remember, a reliever is only going to pitch something like 20 innings the rest of the season, and even if those are 20 very high-leverage innings, the difference between a Miller and one of the slightly inferior options is going to be very limited. Teams just don't offer top-tier prospects for rental relievers anymore, especially for a guy in Miller who isn't a closer (and likely wouldn't be for his new team). After very briefly looking through the last few trade deadlines, I couldn't find a single deal for a rental reliever that returned a prospect of the caliber outlined above. Even the 2013 Francisco Rodriguez trade, widely regarded as an overpay by the Orioles (see here or here), returned just Nick Delmonico, a guy who didn't crack any of the BA/BP/Sickels/FG top 50/75 midseason lists. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 27, 2014 17:52:45 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 12m
Also on #RedSox: Team had top scout at #Braves’ Triple A game today. Braves seeking LH reliever, known interest in Miller.
That could be C Christian Bethancourt, RHP Cody Martin, 3B Edward Salcedo, RHP Aaron Northcraft, OF Todd Cunningham, RHP Juan Jaime.
Northcraft pitched: 5IP 7H 3ER 1BB 7K
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 18:08:47 GMT -5
Bethancourt didn't play. Cunningham pinch-hit. Salcedo is hitting .206 but he's only 23 (as of 7/30).
Not impressed with either Salcedo or Northcraft.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 27, 2014 18:10:18 GMT -5
Bethancourt didn't play. Cunningham pinch-hit. Salcedo is hitting .206 but he's only 23 (as of 7/30). Not impressed with either Salcedo or Northcraft. You would think that the Pirates could offer more value..but maybe this is just what Miller's market is. |
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 27, 2014 18:24:24 GMT -5
Either you trade him for the appropriate value, or you sign him to a 3 year 18 million contract. What have we become, the marlins?? spend the money!
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 27, 2014 18:31:28 GMT -5
Yeah I'd look GCL or something with the Braves, because no upper level spec they have catches my liking aside from Peraza which isn't someone we'd need.
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Post by jdb on Jul 27, 2014 19:10:55 GMT -5
Either you trade him for the appropriate value, or you sign him to a 3 year 18 million contract. What have we become, the marlins?? spend the money! I think we would still make a run at him as a FA. He hasn't made a ton of money (as far as mlb players)and probably goes to the highest bidder. Also I'd add Matt Skole and Drew Ward as interesting Nats prospects. |
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 27, 2014 20:29:35 GMT -5
Went to a Braves site to see what they think is fair value (I assume we'd end up somewhere in the middle).
Consensus thoughts:
1. They are thinking top 15 prospect (excluding the recent draft) for Miller. Northcraft's name came up quite a bit. Also Martin, Salcedo and Jaime, all of whom are fringe prospects at this point. Northcraft is thought of as a low-ceiling/high-floor C prospect, who likely will end up as a ground-ball specialist/ROOGY out of the bullpen.
2. No one wants to give up a top ten prospect in their system, even though they acknowledge that their system is not very good.
3. They are willing to take Carp off our hands for next-to-nothing.
We'll see who is right, if a trade occurs.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 27, 2014 20:34:31 GMT -5
Went to a Braves site to see what they think is fair value (I assume we'd end up somewhere in the middle). Consensus thoughts: 1. They are thinking top 15 prospect (excluding the recent draft) for Miller. Northcraft's name came up quite a bit. Also Martin, Salcedo and Jaime, all of whom are fringe prospects at this point. Northcraft is thought of as a low-ceiling/high-floor C prospect, who likely will end up as a ground-ball specialist/ROOGY out of the bullpen. 2. No one wants to give up a top ten prospect in their system, even though they acknowledge that their system is not very good. 3. They are willing to take Carp off our hands for next-to-nothing. We'll see who is right, if a trade occurs. None of this makes any sense though. A reliever prospect who's ceiling is lower than what Miller is in reality? I seriously feel bad for Atlanta. It's almost impossible fro them to improve via trade. Them and LAA have such horrible farm systems it's crazy. |
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,330
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Post by radiohix on Jul 27, 2014 21:09:40 GMT -5
Went to a Braves site to see what they think is fair value (I assume we'd end up somewhere in the middle). Consensus thoughts: 1. They are thinking top 15 prospect (excluding the recent draft) for Miller. Northcraft's name came up quite a bit. Also Martin, Salcedo and Jaime, all of whom are fringe prospects at this point. Northcraft is thought of as a low-ceiling/high-floor C prospect, who likely will end up as a ground-ball specialist/ROOGY out of the bullpen. 2. No one wants to give up a top ten prospect in their system, even though they acknowledge that their system is not very good. 3. They are willing to take Carp off our hands for next-to-nothing. We'll see who is right, if a trade occurs. None of this makes any sense though. A reliever prospect who's ceiling is lower than what Miller is in reality? I seriously feel bad for Atlanta. It's almost impossible fro them to improve via trade. Them and LAA have such horrible farm systems it's crazy.That's why they should trade us Heyward during winter  |
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