Mat Latos (and other Reds starters)

Latos' velocity is down quite a bit this year, and the strikeouts are down with it. Is there any reason to think that's coming back? He's not very old but he's lost over 3 mph over the past few years, most of that coming this year.

MLBTR on Latos and the Reds' other SP trade candidates: feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/i1d1Ux3BLPI/trade-candidates-the-reds-starting-pitchers.html

I hadn't thought about Phillips to 3B-- that's actually a really interesting idea. He's reported to have an above-average arm, so that transition to 3B might work (though the elephant in the room is whether he want to move positions after playing 2B in the majors for a decade+). The contract is not even that bad if he rebounds to become even an average regular (15:$12M, 16:$13M, 17:$14M), though Phillips does turn 34 next year and age-related collapse is a concern.

Something like Phillips and Cueto for, say, Craig (to partially offset Phillips' salary and give the Reds a left fielder), Workman (or Ranaudo? Webster?), and Coyle? That seems a little light. Craig, Johnson, and Coyle?

Phillips has a horrible attitude and hitting skills to match. It's one thing to take on a contract, but as a 3B there's a chance he's worse than replacement level. No way I eat his whole contract, and I would throw Ranaudo in if it would help not have him in the deal period.

I think the Reds are going to want one significant prospect to headline the trade even if you take on Phillips as Cueto is awfully good. That means you are giving up one of the good pitchers (Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez).

You could also expand the deal to give them Nava and Victorino for Bruce in exchange for making the package a little lighter.

Yeah, I considered including one of those three in there. If Phillips seems open to moving to third, I'd probably be willing to do Phillips and Cueto for Craig, Owens, and Coyle.

If a player fights with the media but still is productive it's entertaining for us as fans....but usually doesn't make much of a difference when it comes to wins and losses.

He does have a no trade to ten teams and I would bet you a dollar that Boston is on it.

This blockbuster sounds attractive to me!!!!!

If we're talking about expanding any deal with the Reds, I'd love to try and get both Leake and Latos from them. One has to think they're going to be looking to either extend Cueto, or would want a LOT more for him - as they should. However 4/5 of their rotation will be free agents at the end of next season (Leake, Latos, Cueto and Simon), and again, I'm assuming they try to extend Cueto.

Latos has been discussed a lot in this thread (clearly) and I like him too. On Mike Leake, he has made 30, 31 and 33 starts the past three years and is 26. In his career he has a 3.92ERA; 1.294whip; and 2.70 k/bb ratio. Small sample size applies, but in his career for inter-league starts (17 - a little more than half a season) he has a 3.56ERA; 1.086whip and 3.08 k/bb ratio.

At the major league level, they are pretty well set at most of their positions, with the exception of left-field. Winker is likely their LF of the future, but at this point he has less than 100 plate appearances at the AA level - he's at least a year, and more likely two years away from taking over a job in the majors.

However,their rotation has only one pitcher under their control for more than next year (Homer Bailey). If one assumes they look to extend Cueto, that is two, but that would be a big increase to their budget, so filling out the rest of their rotation with cost controlled pitchers seems to make a ton of sense for them. Cingrani hasn't quite performed as expected, but they do have Robert Stephenson on the cusp, so lets assume that one of them takes over a third spot.

I could see a deal of (their choice on all the groupings) of Cespedes or Craig to play left field; two from the group of Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar, Workman; one of Coyle or Rijo (Phillips has three years left on his deal); and one of Marrero, Shaw or Travis making a ton of sense for both teams (if you look at their system, they have some good pitching and outfield prospects, but not much on the infield).

For the Red Sox, they take the money that would have been utilized to sign one 30+ FA starter this off-season (call it $22M) and allocate it instead to matching 5yr / $55m extensions for two pitchers who will both be 27 heading into next season (and they each get to go back on the market before their age 32 season for another pay day).

Our rotation next season and going forward is Latos, Leake, Kelly, De La Rosa and Buchholz. Also leaves Ranaudo*, Owens, Johnson and Rodriguez waiting in the wings.

Line up becomes:
Betts - RF; Bogaerts - SS; Ortiz - DH; Napoli - 1b; Pedroia - 2b; Free Agent - 3b; Castillo - CF; Nava / Craig* - LF; Vazquez - C. In this I'm assuming that Cincinnati would opt for Cespedes, Barnes, Escobar, Rijo and Travis because that's what I'd take.

Of all the clubs that have any kind of walk-year pitcher, the club with the biggest honking need for Cespedes is the Reds. And he'd be a great fit in their park.

What you need to add to Cespedes to get Cueto is a good extreme groundball pitcher. There are several ways to do this:

-- Get Tyson Ross (.547 GB, 2012-14) from the Padres. Ranuado has more value to them than to anyone else. They have no one at SS, so Marrero would be desirable, and Holt would allow them to move Jedd Gyorko back to his native position at 3B and would hence be an upgrade to Solarte. Toss in Britton, Wilson, or Hembree to clear roster space. (Wait, there's more.)

The Reds get three years of Ross and one of Cespedes, for one year of Cueto (and maybe a lost draft pick if Ross fades). That's a steal. So they send a top prospect, maybe CF Phil Ervin, to the Padres. Would Reds fans like getting a year of Cespedes and three of Ross for a year of Cueto, plus Ervin? That still sounds like a steal.

The Padres, who need talent, turn Ross's three remaining years into 23 combined years of Ervin, Marrero, Ranaudo, and Holt. If that's not enough, the Reds can send them a second prospect.

You could also do this deal with four years of Andrew Cashner (.510). The Padres' two best pitchers rank 8th and 23rd in GB% out of 131 MLB SP (300 IP from 2012-14), which is a tremendous waste of talent given their park.

-- Get Doug Fister (.517) from the Nationals. I think they'd want a pitcher back, so you could trade Ranaudo and a reliever for Ian Kennedy, then flip Kennedy and Holt for Fister, then Fister, Cespedes, and Marrero for Cueto and Ervin, who goes to the Nats.

The Padres are getting 6 years of a 4th starter (in their park only), plus a reliever, for one year of a #3 starter. The Nats downgrade from a #2 to a #3 for one year and get 5 years of Holt for that, and probably lose a draft pick, and get Ervin for that, so they're happy. The Reds are downgrading from #1 Cueto to #2 Fister for a year (and still getting a pick), but are getting 6 years of Marrero for that, and are getting a year of Cespedes for Ervin. They're happy, too.

-- Get Rick Porcello (.523) from the Tigers. I leave that an an exercise for you all!

I think these scenarios demonstrate that we have more than enough spare talent to land Cueto. Whether it's worth it is another question.

I think beane is trying to rework his roster by getting almost major league ready prospects for one year rental players.

I wonder if Homer Bailey isn't the SP the Red Sox should target.

2015 29yrs $10,000,000
2016 30yrs $18,000,000
2017 31yrs $19,000,000
2018 32yrs $21,000,000
2019 33yrs $23,000,000
2020 34yrs $25,000,000 $25M Mutual Option, $5M Buyout

$96 Million guaranteed for 5yrs

If the Reds decided to trade Bailey it would free up the money they need to sign Cueto.

I wonder if a package built around Cespedes, & Marrero (2 needs for the Reds LF & SS) could work? Maybe add in Nava, Workman.

$96 Million over 5yrs seems to be more in the range the Sox were willing to be in.