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Olmsted, unsung and underrated
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 13, 2012 19:08:45 GMT -5
Michael Olmsted is currently listed at #42 on Soxprospects ratings. To me this is a ratings injustice.
He is 25, 6'5 250 lbs. missed a year due to TJ surgery and, according to local newspaper reports, had been throwing his FB in the upper 90s in AA Portland this summer. That velocity is at odds with the Soxprospects scouting report that sets him in the low 90's. I believe the SP info may be outdated.
In 2011-2012 Olmsted posted this cumulative line b/t Greenville and Portland (4 innings in GCL).
Ip H hrs BB Ks Whip K/9 ERA
92 54 1 25 140 .86 13.94 1.47
1 HR in 92 innings!
Those stats are eye-popping!
By contrast, Alex Wilson at 6'1" is (ranked #15 by Soxprospects) with reported FB velocity topping at 94. He has had the following relative stats;
At age 24 in AA
IP H BB Ks Whip K/9 ERA
112 103 37 99 1.25 7.96 3.05
At age 25 in AAA
73 76 33 78 1.50 9.66 3.72
I have not seen Olmsted pitch, but his stats speak for themselves.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2012 19:23:52 GMT -5
Reminder: explicit discussion of SoxProspects.com rankings should go into the Meta Forum. I'll leave this thread for now, but focus the discussion on whether Olmsted is underrated generally, not where he should go in the rankings.
Example of good discussion: Olmsted was literally the best pitcher in the minor leagues by FIP last year!
Example of bad discussion: I think Olmsted should be the 15th ranked prospect on this site!
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 13, 2012 19:24:28 GMT -5
Olmsted is a prospect available for Rule 5, and I hope we protect him. Just his size would probably freak some batters out. I also have never actually seen him in a game. Being around the GCL Sox I've noticed him.....who wouldn't. As sarasoxer mentioned, his stats are simply amazing. I like the bullpen depth we have, but we may need to move some before Rule 5 happens. I like Josh Fields also.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 13, 2012 19:31:51 GMT -5
Reminder: explicit discussion of SoxProspects.com rankings should go into the Meta Forum. I'll leave this thread for now, but focus the discussion on whether Olmsted is underrated generally, not where he should go in the rankings. Example of good discussion: Olmsted was literally the best pitcher in the minor leagues by FIP last year! Example of bad discussion: I think Olmsted should be the 15th ranked prospect on this site! Thanks jmei. My main point is that Olmsted is underrated if one looked soley at his stats. I was not trying to rank him in Soxprospects. My reference to rankings was only to note his being relatively under-valued. Yes, the entire milb stats speak loudly too. |
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Post by jioh on Oct 13, 2012 19:42:19 GMT -5
Reminder: explicit discussion of SoxProspects.com rankings should go into the Meta Forum. I'll leave this thread for now, but focus the discussion on whether Olmsted is underrated generally, not where he should go in the rankings. Example of good discussion: Olmsted was literally the best pitcher in the minor leagues by FIP last year! Example of bad discussion: I think Olmsted should be the 15th ranked prospect on this site! Really? No discussion of ranking except in the meta forum? "I do not think that word means what you think it means." It looks to me as though the meta forum has zero discussion of baseball, and only questions and discussion about formatting, notifications about changes in rankings, questions about whether a mistake has been made in rankings (math, typo, omissions), comments on how the site is laid out. Those are all things that I would think would fall under the ordinary definition of "meta". Whereas discussion of where someone should rank is a baseball discussion. I'd be disappointed and surprised to have that confined to a meta forum. |
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2012 23:28:49 GMT -5
From the SoxProspects Forum Ground Rules: ( link)
11. Special Threads/Sub-forums
a. SP Meta Forum - Discuss anything about SoxProspects.com. The rankings, ETAs, projections, comments, corrections. That stuff should stay off the main board - the point is that this site itself is not the story, the players and the teams are.
From Mike's post in the Meta forum: Welcome to the Meta Sub-Forum, a forum for members to give their input on the site and the site's rankings. It's my opinion that the discussion about this site should be separated from the discussions about the Red Sox, the prospects, and the minor league affiliates. I've said this before, but it's my belief that the players are the story and should be the main topic of discussion on the main board, not this site.
However, I do understand that members want their voices heard on where certain players should be ranked on this site. I realize some of this discussion may overlap a bit, but I do ask that if your discussion is generally about where this site should rank players, please put in in this forum. This has been a long-standing rule of SoxProspects.com as far back as I can remember. For an empirical example of the rule in practice, all the SoxProspects award/All-Star voting was conducted in the Meta forum, as was the 2012 Community Ranking compilation. In this thread, feel free to make comparisons between Olmsted and other relievers in the Red Sox minor league system, discuss whether you'd protect him in the Rule 5 draft, make projections, link to scouting reports/news articles, et cetera. But try and steer clear of explicit discussion of rankings (ex: "Olmsted should at least be in the top 20!"). I know it's a little frustrating, but the rule exists for a reason-- Olmsted is more than just a ranking on SoxProspects.com, and you can discuss his pros and cons without getting into where he should be ranked on this site. Sidenote: I will move further discussion of whether the main forum should be used for debating rankings to the meta forum. Yes, that is terribly droll. Sorry. |
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 14, 2012 0:34:07 GMT -5
He's not the hero America wants, but he's the hero American needs.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 14, 2012 9:28:21 GMT -5
Someone will take a flyer on him on the Rule 5. Its easier to bury someone from the bullpen for a whole year than it is a starter or position player.
Sox have decisions to make on him, Josh Fields and Huntzinger all of whom are Rule 5. I'd protect Olmsted and Fields.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 14, 2012 9:37:03 GMT -5
Someone will take a flyer on him on the Rule 5. Its easier to bury someone from the bullpen for a whole year than it is a starter or position player. Sox have decisions to make on him, Josh Fields and Huntzinger all of whom are Rule 5. I'd protect Olmsted and Fields. Lots of tough decisions for the 40, but I would do this also. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2012 11:46:44 GMT -5
FWIW, I know of at least one scout that was more impressed with Fields than Olmsted after seeing both in Portland.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 14, 2012 12:21:44 GMT -5
Someone will take a flyer on him on the Rule 5. Its easier to bury someone from the bullpen for a whole year than it is a starter or position player. Sox have decisions to make on him, Josh Fields and Huntzinger all of whom are Rule 5. I'd protect Olmsted and Fields. Lots of tough decisions for the 40, but I would do this also. Its unanimous. Can I get a "true" opinion on his velocity now? I assume the difference has more to do with minor league stadium gun vs. real one but who knows? |
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Post by jioh on Oct 14, 2012 13:43:53 GMT -5
From the SoxProspects Forum Ground Rules: ( link)
11. Special Threads/Sub-forums
a. SP Meta Forum - Discuss anything about SoxProspects.com. The rankings, ETAs, projections, comments, corrections. That stuff should stay off the main board - the point is that this site itself is not the story, the players and the teams are.
... In this thread, feel free to make comparisons between Olmsted and other relievers in the Red Sox minor league system, discuss whether you'd protect him in the Rule 5 draft, make projections, link to scouting reports/news articles, et cetera. But try and steer clear of explicit discussion of rankings ... OK, thanks |
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Post by jioh on Oct 14, 2012 13:47:56 GMT -5
Mike's ESPN story espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/23321/soxprospects-2013-outlooksays that "Olmsted is actually slated to become a minor league free agent next month, but it's rumored that there is mutual interest in a return engagement." Presumably there would be an informal agreement before the Rule 5 and a contract after, so that he couldn't be taken. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2012 17:23:03 GMT -5
I doubt Olmsted would agree to such a thing. Being selected in Rule 5 and being in the Majors is the best possible thing that could happen to him. And if the Sox would refuse to sign him, then the theoretical team that would pick him in Rule 5 would sign him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 14, 2012 18:38:01 GMT -5
He's not the hero America wants, but he's the hero American needs. Harvey Dent or Batman.....? Chris Hatfield...no matter what the end result, Olmsted is a great and under-reported story in 2012. His season stats are phenomenal. If some scouts downgrade him...well, so much the better. I hope that this guy has fantastic success. |
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Post by Chris Mellen on Oct 14, 2012 19:22:06 GMT -5
He is 25, 6'5 250 lbs. missed a year due to TJ surgery and according to local newspaper reports, had been throwing his FB in the upper 90s in AA Portland this summer. That velocity is at odds with the Soxprospects scouting report that sets him in the low 90's. I believe the SP info may be outdated. I've clocked Michael Olmsted anywhere from 91-95 mph this season. Ian Cundall had this report on him at the end of the year. news.soxprospects.com/2012/09/scouting-scratch-closing-out-portland.htmlWhen I saw Olmsted in Salem, he pitched back-to-back outings. The first night, his fastball was 93-95 mph. The next night it was 91-92 mph. Ian and I both experienced the same trend when scouting him in Double-A. There'd be a night where the velocity was strong and then another night where it wasn't. Olmsted's velocity is inconsistent. More often than not when I saw him, his fastball sat in the low-90s. Seeing players over the course of the season, I go with the trends I see in their scouting reports. What we see and what we get from trusted sources is what is reported. If Olmsted shows he can hold the strong velocity consistently and it doesn't yo-yo next season, it'll get updated. |
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Post by elguapo on Oct 14, 2012 20:52:21 GMT -5
The MLFA thing is not clear to me. If the Sox add Olmsted to the 40-man today, they retain his rights regardless, right? And the other option is to resign him to a minor league deal and hope nobody picks him in Rule 5? That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. If a team were willing to make him a Rule 5 pick, wouldn't they far rather sign him to a minor league deal (added to their 40-man) and retain the ability to option him?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2012 0:37:52 GMT -5
All of that seems right to me. What's the question?
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 15, 2012 2:11:52 GMT -5
I traveled to nearby New Britain on August 20 to watch Portland play. Olmstead threw an inning and was 94-95 with his fastball and looked good. If anyone would like to read what I wrote about that specific game, go to SOSH minor league forums and bring up that game thread.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 15, 2012 7:39:22 GMT -5
He is 25, 6'5 250 lbs. missed a year due to TJ surgery and according to local newspaper reports, had been throwing his FB in the upper 90s in AA Portland this summer. That velocity is at odds with the Soxprospects scouting report that sets him in the low 90's. I believe the SP info may be outdated. I've clocked Michael Olmsted anywhere from 91-95 mph this season. Ian Cundall had this report on him at the end of the year. news.soxprospects.com/2012/09/scouting-scratch-closing-out-portland.htmlWhen I saw Olmsted in Salem, he pitched back-to-back outings. The first night, his fastball was 93-95 mph. The next night it was 91-92 mph. Ian and I both experienced the same trend when scouting him in Double-A. There'd be a night where the velocity was strong and then another night where it wasn't. Olmsted's velocity is inconsistent. More often than not when I saw him, his fastball sat in the low-90s. Seeing players over the course of the season, I go with the trends I see in their scouting reports. What we see and what we get from trusted sources is what is reported. If Olmsted shows he can hold the strong velocity consistently and it doesn't yo-yo next season, it'll get updated. Chris, thanks. My info was mainly based on a Portland Press Herald article last summer (can't find it) in which Olmsted was reported to be throwing 97 or so. I had also talked with a couple of season ticket holders who said the same. In fairness, having attended a number of games over several years there, it seems as tho every other pitcher hits 95. ( BTW not Ranaudo!). Given perhaps a lower velocity and an inconsistent one at that, how does one account for Olmsted's dominance and incredible strikeout and low hit rates? |
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Post by Chris Mellen on Oct 15, 2012 9:41:23 GMT -5
In Salem Michael Olmsted was clearly ahead of the curve. Both outings I saw he threw fastballs for strikes and the velocity was good. 91-95 mph thrown for strikes in the low minors typically beats opposing hitters. I would say that his control was very good and that his command of the pitch was about average. Reports from scouts during his time in Salem mentioned similar things: throws strikes, fastball can top at 95-96 mph, and want to see him pitch in extended action against better hitters.
In Portland it was similar. Olmsted threw strikes and the velocity was good even with the wavering from outing to outing. He'd snap off his slider during sequences as well. Consistently throwing strikes at the minor league level typically leads to really good results, especially for a reliever. Keep in mind that relieving in the minors is usually structured. Most outings start with clean innings and are in essence 1-2 inning starts at full bore. The majority of the messes are self created, with high leverage outings fewer and further between.
I think Olmsted can make the majors, but the role is likely as an up-and-down arm. When it comes to relievers, there isn't much that sets him apart from the ones that typically go up and down from Triple-A, and maybe hold onto a spot as a guy early out of the chute for a stretch.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 15, 2012 9:53:27 GMT -5
When it comes to relievers, there isn't much that sets him apart from the ones that typically go up and down from Triple-A, and maybe hold onto a spot as a guy early out of the chute for a stretch. He's very large!!!! |
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Post by ramireja on Mar 11, 2014 9:23:38 GMT -5
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Post by klostrophobic on Mar 11, 2014 21:43:50 GMT -5
I just may cry. This off-season is now complete.
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Post by bigpupp on Mar 11, 2014 22:45:13 GMT -5
My 2012 self is so pumped right now.
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