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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 11, 2014 22:50:02 GMT -5
I just may cry. This off-season is now complete. God. Damnit.
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Post by klostrophobic on Mar 12, 2014 0:08:55 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 12, 2014 6:51:08 GMT -5
This thread should serve as a reminder as to why you can't scout a stat line and why real scouting reports should be valued over press clippings.
Also it reminds us that a reliever who is on the off season bubble is going to be jettisoned. The Red Sox resources allow them to spend money on veterans for all bullpen roles.
The Sox will defend this year with one home grown arm in the pen.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 12, 2014 8:14:00 GMT -5
Kind of ... not the above. The primary reminder is that the performance of most relievers is volatile year-to-year. No "real scouting report" indicated Olmsted would blow up at AAA last season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 12, 2014 8:43:25 GMT -5
It is true that Chris Mellen wondered out loud, at the time, if the inconsistent velocity might not be a problem. That may not have been a straight up or down on the guy, but for me it did point out some real concerns from scouting him.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 12, 2014 9:13:37 GMT -5
It is true that Chris Mellen wondered out loud, at the time, if the inconsistent velocity might not be a problem. That may not have been a straight up or down on the guy, but for me it did point out some real concerns from scouting him. Yes, yes, that was discussed over and over, even his backers acknowledged that was a potential problem. But reporting inconsistent velocity is not anywhere close to predicting complete implosion at AAA, which was my point. There were no "real scouting reports" predicting imminent failure; some anti-Giantites may have done so, but we should not validate that kind of discrimination.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2014 19:17:37 GMT -5
It is true that Chris Mellen wondered out loud, at the time, if the inconsistent velocity might not be a problem. That may not have been a straight up or down on the guy, but for me it did point out some real concerns from scouting him. Yes, yes, that was discussed over and over, even his backers acknowledged that was a potential problem. But reporting inconsistent velocity is not anywhere close to predicting complete implosion at AAA, which was my point. There were no "real scouting reports" predicting imminent failure; some anti-Giantites may have done so, but we should not validate that kind of discrimination. No, Mellen and scouts who saw him that we talked to just weren't high on him at all and weren't buying the results. There were a few of us trying to get everyone who was freaking out about him leaving to calm the hell down and that it wasn't a big loss. Sure, maybe the words weren't spoken saying that he was going to implode, but scouting isn't soothsaying. For the wheels to fall off like that was absolutely a validation of those like Chris and Ian who were trying to tell people that his success was not going to continue.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 13, 2014 9:19:32 GMT -5
For the wheels to fall off like that was absolutely a validation of those like Chris and Ian who were trying to tell people that his success was not going to continue. That's a complete rewrite in hindsight of what was reported at the time. Nobody predicted imminent failure at AAA. There's no need to be so defensive - no one is saying the scouting was wrong.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 13, 2014 10:01:02 GMT -5
For the wheels to fall off like that was absolutely a validation of those like Chris and Ian who were trying to tell people that his success was not going to continue. That's a complete rewrite in hindsight of what was reported at the time. Nobody predicted imminent failure at AAA. There's no need to be so defensive - no one is saying the scouting was wrong. "Success not going to continue" (what I said) ? "imminent failure" (what you're implying that I said). All I meant is that he wouldn't continue dealing, not that he'd pitch poorly. Heck, there's a post from Mellen on this page stating his thoughts that he was an up-and-down arm. I'm not getting defensive, just clarifying.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 13, 2014 10:11:46 GMT -5
I think Chris is just arguing against revisionism. It would be unusual to have a scout say conclusively "this guy fails at the next level" after all. The staff did point out the red flags which is exactly what evaluators are supposed to do.
All that said, the Sox must see some value here since he's back. Let's see if they can put him back on a development track.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 13, 2014 11:31:03 GMT -5
Heck, there's a post from Mellen on this page stating his thoughts that he was an up-and-down arm. And my point is, that kind of scouting prognosis implies a reliever expected to do pretty well at AAA. In fact Olmsted had a terrible year, not because scouting knew it was going to happen while Olmsted-backers blindly project stat lines from AA to the majors, but because fringy relievers (hell, sometimes elite ones) are often wildly inconsistent year to year.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 13, 2014 11:36:17 GMT -5
And he's a fringy reliever. Which is what Chris and Ian said he was. What are you even arguing?
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