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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 9:57:14 GMT -5
Ok, so I am a little bored and I am thinking outside the box. Here it goes.
I was completely against trading for Upton last go around as I thought he would cost too much, and there is no speculation he will be traded, but the Braves are probably a .500 team working at the upper limits of their payroll ability and Upton has 1 year left on his contract. They really don't have a chance at resigning him, but he would also be a great option for us to extend. I believe the Braves would want to be competitive now, so the trade I had in mind would focus around giving them flexibility to build a more compete team. He is a cheaper Stanton, both in terms of resigning and trade cost, and he is possibly available because Stanton is not.
So, the base of the deal would be Cespedes + Cash for Upton. This gives the Braves a reasonable replacement under the same terms for Upton. Upton is clearly the better hitter, Cespedes probably has the edge in the field based on his arm. It also gives the Braves ~ 5M more to work with. Cespedes will also be more reasonable to resign (probably still unlikely for the Braves)
From there we need to add some cheap talent the Braves could build around. Middlebrooks might have some value here, depending on how the Braves view Chris Johnson and if they think Middlebrooks can play some 2B also. Nava is an obvious fit too. Holt might be viewed as a starting 2B for the Braves, and someone who can also rep in at 3B or in the OF. If the Braves thought Lavarnway or Butler would be good pieces either in the minors or as a backup they could have them also, but I doubt there is much value there. So picking one from this list I would add in a AAA pitcher, like Barnes or Sanchez.
So my proposal: Upton for Cespedes Middlebrooks (Nava more likely) Barnes 3-4M cash
This is also my low ball offer, but I still think it is fair. Braves get some salary relief and some players that will help their 2015 team, we get the power hitter that we have a chance to extend and consolidate some of our pieces.
Thoughts?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:01:22 GMT -5
*click*
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 10:05:25 GMT -5
Constructive
Add: Let me add to this. I have no problem being told I am wrong or off base, I noted at the top that I was bored and was looking outside of the box. The point of this post was to offer a view and discuss it. Even if my proposal was way off base I think I made some good points that can be progressed through discussion.
I.E.
Any Red Sox fan interested in trading and resigning Stanton should see Upton as a similar option, with less value but also cheaper.
Braves are not going to be able to resign Upton, we would have the change too.
How much more value does Upton have than Cespedes in a one year sample? (Fangraphs says 1.4 wins this year) How would that translate to the players the Red Sox would have to add?
If you ignore my original trade proposal, which I guess could be likened to the Jon Lester 70M original offer, you can see that there might be some things worth talking about in this post.
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There is a reason this is in the trade proposal sub forums and not the main ones. It is abstract and unlikely. This post is in an isolated place, so if you don't want to participate in the discussion you can simply ignore it. AMFox has an opinion that I think very highly of. I've disagreed with many, many trade proposals, but I've always offered up the reason why I disagree, and said what I thought the trade would have to look like. I think that should be the standard of the response, otherwise how would people who know less about this ever learn from people who know more about this..... just from hearing no? See my responses in the Hamles and Stanton posts, I may be wrong there too but at least I explained myself. Maybe I am the only one who posts like that, or I reconsider how I word my posts.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:16:25 GMT -5
If I were ATL, I would laugh and hang up the phone. That's about as constructive as your trade proposal, which was an absolute joke. If you want to make lowball offers to real-life general managers, they will say that they will consider it and never call you back. If you want to propose offers that are serious, I will take them seriously.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:29:28 GMT -5
BTW, there is no chance they trade Justin Upton this offseason without also offloading BJ Upton's 3 year, $48mm disaster, especially after eating nearly $20mm for Dan Uggla this year and next year.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 10:42:26 GMT -5
If I were ATL, I would laugh and hang up the phone. That's about as constructive as your trade proposal, which was an absolute joke. If you want to make lowball offers to real-life general managers, they will say that they will consider it and never call you back. If you want to propose offers that are serious, I will take them seriously. Ok, so you responded while I was editing my post. Once again I really don't find this constructive and it is written in a much more negative tone than I would have expected or think I deserve. Something I would have liked to discuss is what would we have to add to Cespedes to make him worth Upton, when both of their contracts are expiring this year. Is it a top 100 Prospect (I thought Barnes was fringe top 100), is it more than one? I mean I am sorry my original post was offensive to you, I really didn't think it would be. I, like basically everyone, think my trade proposals are generally accurate, or at least closer than the norm. I was more driving towards the possibility than the actual proposal. But just calling it a joke offers me no opportunity to learn. I know I don't know baseball as much as everyone else on these forums but that is part of the reason I come here, and if this post was really that bad I'll refrain from contributing any more and just read what others have to say. Really, I would like to know, how much excess value does 1 year of Upton have over 1 year of Cespedes? I need to know how far I am off.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:55:33 GMT -5
You are thinking of this as a fantasy trade (excess value, etc). To take this seriously, you need to put yourself in both parties' shoes. Why do I make this trade? How does this make my organization better? Where do I need to improve at the major league level for next year? For five years from now?
From BOS' perspective, I just traded my ace pitcher Jon Lester for Cespedes. Now I'm going to flip him for another corner outfielder? Makes no sense. Yes, Upton is a better player but he costs more, with the same contract term. I'm better off seeing what I have with Cespedes and trying to extend him.
From ATL's perspective, Upton is one of my tentpole players. His brother is on the team. Why would I make a lateral move (at best) unless I am getting overwhelmed. Otherwise, how am I going to justify this to the team, ownership and our fans. Getting a lesser player who plays the same position, a borderline top 100 prospect, who may project in the bullpen, another fringe player and a little bit of cash, is not going to play well to my constituencies.
If you want to have a general conversation about trading an all-star for a regular non-all-star player, that's fine (I'm not really interested in the conversation but it's a viable conversation to have). Considering an Upton-for-Cespedes trade makes little sense from either team's perspective. That's my problem with it.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 10:58:15 GMT -5
If I were ATL, I would laugh and hang up the phone. That's about as constructive as your trade proposal, which was an absolute joke. Uh, what? Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes are both (per ZiPS) 4ish WAR players who are under contract for one more year. Upton is a bit younger and I guess has more "upside" but again, it's one year and he's also due 4m more than Cespedes. Throwing in two cost-controlled assets on top of Cespedes would make it a disaster of a deal for the Red Sox. Even straight up it's pretty much a pointless deal for two teams that are both planning on contending in 2015. You may be right about ATL laughing and hanging up though, I wouldn't put it past them to be that dumb. edit: I see you changed your tune a bit in your last post. I agree in reality this trade makes zero sense for either side, but in a vacuum the idea that it's a lowball is flat out wrong.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 11:00:38 GMT -5
How long before people give up on the idea that Justin Upton is going to suddenly turn into Ken Griffey, Jr? When he's 30 years old and still not a superstar?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 11:10:30 GMT -5
Uh, what? Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes are both (per ZiPS) 4ish WAR players who are under contract for one more year. Upton is a bit younger and I guess has more "upside" but again, it's one year and he's also due 4m more than Cespedes. oWAR (Upton) - 5.1, 2.1, 3.1, 3.5 (YTD) oWAR (Cespedes) - na, 4.7, 1.5, 2.0 (YTD) They are not equivalent players offensively.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 11:23:03 GMT -5
For the last 5 months. Now, if you can explain to me why, when describing a player's current value/true talent, we would look at YTD stats instead of projections and also completely ignore defense then you might have something.
Unless of course the reason is, "because it makes my argument work."
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 11:34:47 GMT -5
For the last 5 months. Now, if you can explain to me why, when describing a player's current value/true talent, we would look at YTD stats instead of projections and also completely ignore defense then you might have something. Unless of course the reason is, "because it makes my argument work." First, those are annual stats (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 YTD). The stats are available with one click. Projections are fine, but they have to be based on history. Upton is younger, so the projections are likely to work in his favor. Cespedes' projections already reflect his trade to BOS, so in switching teams you would have to adjust both projections (Upton up, Cespedes down). Second, the defense is not a huge determinant here (both are adequate corner outfielders). Bottom line, Upton is the better player and it's not as close as you think.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 11:59:31 GMT -5
The bottom line is, per both ZiPS and Steamer (which are based on history and not magical pixie dust or whatever you seem to think they are) Upton is about a 4.1 WAR guy and Cespedes is about 3.8.
And given the inexact nature of WAR, it's more than fair to say it's pretty much a wash. I like Upton a bit more too, personally, but it's merely a matter of preference.
And adding in two decent pre-arb players would make the BOS side of the deal undoubtedly more valuable. But again, we agree there's no chance or reason in reality for this deal anyway.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 12:05:51 GMT -5
You are thinking of this as a fantasy trade (excess value, etc). To take this seriously, you need to put yourself in both parties' shoes. Why do I make this trade? How does this make my organization better? Where do I need to improve at the major league level for next year? For five years from now? From BOS' perspective, I just traded my ace pitcher Jon Lester for Cespedes. Now I'm going to flip him for another corner outfielder? Makes no sense. Yes, Upton is a better player but he costs more, with the same contract term. I'm better off seeing what I have with Cespedes and trying to extend him. From ATL's perspective, Upton is one of my tentpole players. His brother is on the team. Why would I make a lateral move (at best) unless I am getting overwhelmed. Otherwise, how am I going to justify this to the team, ownership and our fans. Getting a lesser player who plays the same position, a borderline top 100 prospect, who may project in the bullpen, another fringe player and a little bit of cash, is not going to play well to my constituencies. I thought I spoke a little to this, but let me elaborate I don't see that the Red Sox traded their ace Lester for Cespedes. I thought they traded negotiation rights and some good will (both for Lester and the fans) for a year of Cespedes. The rest of the time Lester had left in a Red Sox uniform was for an uncompetitive team, so any value he adds in my eyes is basically irrelevant. Cespedes has already had a fair amount of speculation about being flipped already, I don't think I trail blazed that idea. From a Red Sox perspective, I think they would rather try to extend Upton instead of Cespedes (or try for Stanton which is the reigning rumor) because of his age and upside. He would take advantage of the monster both offensively and defensively. And he is the young power bat who if extended would be signed through his prime that the Red Sox fans have been clamoring for. He also fits the Red Sox hitting mold better than Cespedes, because he hasn't had a year with an OBP under 350, if you don't count his 150 AB in his rookie year. What I think is more important is why would the Braves want to do this? The Braves have to become a more complete team, and they are scarce on the resources to become so. Upton for Cespedes, Yes it is a downgrade but it would not be the only part of the deal. If they were to pick up some payroll space they can put that to another part of their team. Middlebrooks isn't a clear upgrade over Johnson, but he has upside, and will cost 1/18th the amount. He could be valuable off the bench on an NL team. I noted that Nava is probably more valuable, he is a minimum salary guy who was worth at least 1 war in the last three years. Seeing as Upton and Heyward are free agents who are unlikely to resign, and the other Upton is just terrible, the Braves have some questions to answer in the outfield. For pitching, Santana and Hanrang are both free agents that will get raises this offseason. Floyd threw 50 innings and is a free agent also. If the Braves saw one of our AAA pitchers as a starter, there is another minimum salary guy they can add to their team. Maybe it is not Barnes or Sanchez but could it be a Workman, Ranaudo, Webster? I think this is a decent starting point outline. My point is I think there has to be some reasonable situation where it would benefit the Braves exchange Upton for Cespedes. ADD: I think the the trade would make the 2015 Braves slightly better to slightly worse depending on how Nava or the pitcher would perform, but another main draw is the 2016 Braves get at least two new players who will be relatively cheap and have a good shot at being productive. That's the value to the Braves. So how would you explain the Lackey trade, or the Price trade, or even the Nomar trade (besides his displeasure in Boston). Lackey is better than Kelly, Price is better than Smyly, and Nomar is better than Cabrera, but that was not the complete view of the trade. Let me ask, if the Upton's contracts were available for free together, would any team take that on by itself? I don't think anyone would do that deal, even if they didn't have to add anything.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 12:33:40 GMT -5
I am not going to respond to all of your points because I have neither the time nor the interest in doing so, so let me respond to a couple of points you made: If they were to pick up some payroll space they can put that to another part of their team. Absolutely, but I can think of better ways to clear up payroll space than trading J.Upton. Middlebrooks isn't a clear upgrade over Johnson, but he has upside, and will cost 1/18th the amount. WMB is not an upgrade over Johnson right now. If WMB cannot fix his hitting issues, he has no value at all. ATL would likely want WMB-Johnson to be in your proposed trade, just to offload Johnson's salary (3/$23.5mm, including buyout). I noted that Nava is probably more valuable, he is a minimum salary guy who was worth at least 1 war in the last three years. Seeing as Upton and Heyward are free agents who are unlikely to resign, and the other Upton is just terrible, the Braves have some questions to answer in the outfield. I agree with this and it would make sense to include him in a deal, except for the fact that the only LHH OFs on the 40-man roster currently are Nava, JBJ and Holt. I think the the trade would make the 2015 Braves slightly better to slightly worse depending on how Nava or the pitcher would perform, but another main draw is the 2016 Braves get at least two new players who will be relatively cheap and have a good shot at being productive. That's the value to the Braves. And, if I'm ATL, my response to that is that I need to be better on the day of the trade, not in 2016. So how would you explain the Lackey trade, or the Price trade, or even the Nomar trade (besides his displeasure in Boston). Lackey is better than Kelly, Price is better than Smyly, and Nomar is better than Cabrera, but that was not the complete view of the trade. Really? Two teams in the playoff chase pay dearly (in theory) to upgrade a spot in their rotation for the current playoff chase/playoffs. That's a classic "now" trade. Apples and antelopes. The Nomar trade was all about his displeasure in Boston - addition by subtraction. He was a clubhouse killer at the end. That's a classic change-in-scenery trade. Again, apples and antelopes. I'm not trying to be mean-spirited in this thread; you spitballed a trade offer and I (properly, IMO) shot it down. Nothing personal.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 12:44:22 GMT -5
Jrffam, your totally hypothetical trade would be more than enough to acquire Justin Upton, just wanna make sure you know that before we wrap it up here.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 13:16:55 GMT -5
I'll admit, I'm investing more to this than I was originally, but that is because you called my proposal an absolute joke. I see Upton this offseason as basically a lesser version of Stanton will be going into 2016. I've been saying it for a while, I don't think there is a chance that Stanton gets traded between now and 2015 trade deadline. If the Sox did want to trade and resign a young power bat, Upton is much more likely than Stanton. If they were to pick up some payroll space they can put that to another part of their team. This is singling out one part of my comment and ignoring the rest. You are not just trading Upton, you are slightly downgrading him, picking up payroll, and adding other pieces. Middlebrooks isn't a clear upgrade over Johnson, but he has upside, and will cost 1/18th the amount. Cespedes, Middlebrooks + add in for Upton, Johnson is something I would be open to I think the the trade would make the 2015 Braves slightly better to slightly worse depending on how Nava or the pitcher would perform, but another main draw is the 2016 Braves get at least two new players who will be relatively cheap and have a good shot at being productive. That's the value to the Braves. Some caveman analysis here, but according to Fangraphs, Cespedes and Nava have been worth more than Upton this year. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that a team with Cespedes, Nava, and a AAA pitcher ready for spot starts could be better than a team with just Upton. So how would you explain the Lackey trade, or the Price trade, or even the Nomar trade (besides his displeasure in Boston). Lackey is better than Kelly, Price is better than Smyly, and Nomar is better than Cabrera, but that was not the complete view of the trade. I was just trying to prove a point. If you only looked at the 2015 roster and ignored payroll, Rays and Red Sox don't make that trade. While I think the trade I proposed with Nava makes the Braves a better team in 2015 it also factors in future season, something teams other than the Yankees and Phillies do. The conversation since your first two posts are the ones I like. I have no problem being rebuffed, told I'm wrong or what ever, that is how I would learn. But pretending to hang up a phone on me and calling my idea an absolute joke, and saying you are not taking my post seriously is insulting, especially because you never state why. Somebody said this on the main forums and it made sense to me. He said, I try to treat people on the forums like I would if we were face to face in the bar. Now I sat in a bar next to someone last year who said the Yankees should trade A-Rod for Cliff Lee, and still I wouldn't think of responding him that way. It's not a problem to say the Phillies would never do that or A-Rod has negative trade value, but if I said that is an absolute joke and I won't take him seriously there is no way I could guarantee myself from staying out of a fight.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 19, 2014 14:09:13 GMT -5
Isn't Atlanta getting a new stadium and TV deal? Aren't they expected to have a lot more money to put into payroll?
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 19, 2014 14:41:42 GMT -5
According to this yes www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/liberty-ceo-reworked-tv-deals-mean-in-the-order-of/nfrfr/But..... I think that was already considered in their recent spending. Quota from this article Right now in 2017 Braves are committed 74.7M dollars to 2017, to players BJ Upton, Kibrel, Freeman, Johnson, Simmons, and Teheran. Besides Upton and Johnson, the rest are pretty sound investments. Kibrel could be risky because he is a reliever 3 years from now and he will be making 13M, but if you are going to bet on a reliever he is the guy. But still, assuming the other Upton will be making at least 20M and Braves payroll will be around 130M, that leaves ~ 35M for the rest of their team. Gattis, Minor, and other arbitration guys will take up at least 15M of that. All those are conservative guesses on my part, but I think it would be very hard for the Braves to fit Upton into their future roster.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 19, 2014 16:16:09 GMT -5
If we're trading with Atlanta, I'd prefer Heyward. Our lineup now tends to be too right handed. Heyward's contract is also up after next season and I haven't seen anything indicating the Braves are negotiating an extension. He's two years younger than Upton, too, though not as good power numbers.
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