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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 16, 2014 21:36:56 GMT -5
The Red Sox should trade for Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce built the railroads. Jay Bruce wrote the Magna Carta. Jay Bruce won the use of fire by man in a card game with Zeus. Read your history books, people.
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Post by bryce on Sept 17, 2014 13:30:04 GMT -5
Why do you have so much confidence on Betts? XB did well last year and played a key one to help Red Sox won the World Series! Does he do that again before August this year? So don't to say Betts will be great one next year too early. Ryan Kalish had a bright future before in the Sox's uniform and I saw a lot of fans praised him very much at that time. We saw him as our next long-term RF then. And then is there anything big he has given to us? In August, Bogaerts hit .123/.195/.164. In April and May, he hit .304/.397/.438 and was the best hitter on the team. So the answer is yes. Betts is also a different type of hitter than Bogaerts, as his swing is less prone to whiffs and he's also shown a better ability to recognize tough breaking pitches. Basically, and this obviously isn't set in stone, but Betts just seems like the type who doesn't need as long of a period to adjust to pitching at the MLB level. Also, FWIW, Betts (160 PA) has accumulated 2.3 more fWAR than Jay Bruce (511 PA) this season. Xander Bogaerts is a well-regarded super prospects. Manny scouts saw him as an immediate-ready player to shine in MLB,but this year,what he did told us that even a "Big one" prospect still need time to grow up,not to mention Betts. Betts is seen as a good prospect but not a "Big one". So the"Big one" even has trouble this year,why do you still have so much confidence on him to become a star next year? Anything could happen in this world,so don't say that too early.(in the beginning of this year,it seems that the Sox has a lot of outfielders to use,but what the result it brought to us?) I saw manny people praise Ryan Kalish very much here four years ago,said that he will be our RF in the future. And then, a variety of injury destroy his career. See! What does he look like now? Maybe Betts will get injuried next year,and he won't bounce back like Ryan Kalish,I think that will be a big loss for us! How do you think Betts is bound to be a better player than Bruce? He hasn't really prove himself because of his limited appearance. Can he keep that fantastic stats in full season? Maybe sure and maybe not. I think he is at least not an untouchable asset such as XB,so I support the idea to deal him for an ace pitcher.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:01:18 GMT -5
In August, Bogaerts hit .123/.195/.164. In April and May, he hit .304/.397/.438 and was the best hitter on the team. So the answer is yes. Betts is also a different type of hitter than Bogaerts, as his swing is less prone to whiffs and he's also shown a better ability to recognize tough breaking pitches. Basically, and this obviously isn't set in stone, but Betts just seems like the type who doesn't need as long of a period to adjust to pitching at the MLB level. Also, FWIW, Betts (160 PA) has accumulated 2.3 more fWAR than Jay Bruce (511 PA) this season. Xander Bogaerts is a well-regarded super prospects. Manny scouts saw him as an immediate-ready player to shine in MLB,but this year,what he did told us that even a "Big one" prospect still need time to grow up,not to mention Betts. Betts is seen as a good prospect but not a "Big one". So the"Big one" even has trouble this year,why do you still have so much confidence on him to become a star next year? Anything could happen in this world,so don't say that too early.(in the beginning of this year,it seems that the Sox has a lot of outfielders to use,but what the result it brought to us?) I saw manny people praise Ryan Kalish very much here four years ago,said that he will be our RF in the future. And then, a variety of injury destroy his career. See! What does he look like now? Maybe Betts will get injuried next year,and he won't bounce back like Ryan Kalish,I think that will be a big loss for us! How do you think Betts is bound to be a better player than Bruce? He hasn't really prove himself because of his limited appearance. Can he keep that fantastic stats in full season? Maybe sure and maybe not. I think he is at least not an untouchable asset such as XB,so I support the idea to deal him for an ace pitcher. Yes, Xander was a top 3 prospect last year -- he was basically a giga prospect. Just because Mookie isn't a top 3 type doesn't mean he isn't big. He is. He would have ranked in the top 25 of mid-season top prospects lists had he not exhausted his eligibility by playing in MLB. Sure, he wasn't on the radar the minute he came into the Sox organization, but he sure morphed into a fantastic prospect. Also, just because Xander was regarded at a higher level doesn't mean Mookie has an equal or greater chance to struggle. I already mentioned why I think Mookie's profile as a hitter will prevent him from having the kind of extended trouble that Xander went through for those brutal three months mid-season. Not sure what else I can say. How do I know that Mookie is more valuable than Bruce right now? He already has a far better hit tool, he certainly has a better running tool, and his fielding very well could be superior as he continues to acclimate to the outfield and Bruce loses range. And can we stop acting like Bruce is some standout weapon in right field? He's had two very good defensive seasons, and a few mediocre ones, including this year which has been pretty poor. He's no Reddick, Heyward, or Victorino out there.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 14:12:25 GMT -5
By the way, I'm not convinced that Mookie isn't a top-3-type prospect. He came in second (behind Bryant) on Keith Law's list, and if he were eligible for BA/BP/etc.'s lists (which I don't think he is), I'm confident he'd be in the top 5 and maybe the top 3.
Also, the idea that player performance is uncertain cuts both ways. We don't know if Betts is going to be a great player next year, but we don't know that Bruce will be, either. The risk is maybe somewhat higher with a prospect like Betts, but Bruce is also coming off a below-replacement-level year, and he's definitely not some sure thing either.
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Post by bryce on Sept 17, 2014 14:20:43 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts is a well-regarded super prospects. Manny scouts saw him as an immediate-ready player to shine in MLB,but this year,what he did told us that even a "Big one" prospect still need time to grow up,not to mention Betts. Betts is seen as a good prospect but not a "Big one". So the"Big one" even has trouble this year,why do you still have so much confidence on him to become a star next year? Anything could happen in this world,so don't say that too early.(in the beginning of this year,it seems that the Sox has a lot of outfielders to use,but what the result it brought to us?) I saw manny people praise Ryan Kalish very much here four years ago,said that he will be our RF in the future. And then, a variety of injury destroy his career. See! What does he look like now? Maybe Betts will get injuried next year,and he won't bounce back like Ryan Kalish,I think that will be a big loss for us! How do you think Betts is bound to be a better player than Bruce? He hasn't really prove himself because of his limited appearance. Can he keep that fantastic stats in full season? Maybe sure and maybe not. I think he is at least not an untouchable asset such as XB,so I support the idea to deal him for an ace pitcher. Yes, Xander was a top 3 prospect last year -- he was basically a giga prospect. Just because Mookie isn't a top 3 type doesn't mean he isn't big. He is. He would have ranked in the top 25 of mid-season top prospects lists had he not exhausted his eligibility by playing in MLB. Sure, he wasn't on the radar the minute he came into the Sox organization, but he sure morphed into a fantastic prospect. Also, just because Xander was regarded at a higher level doesn't mean Mookie has an equal or greater chance to struggle. I already mentioned why I think Mookie's profile as a hitter will prevent him from having the kind of extended trouble that Xander went through for those brutal three months mid-season. Not sure what else I can say. How do I know that Mookie is more valuable than Bruce right now? He already has a far better hit tool, he certainly has a better running tool, and his fielding very well could be superior as he continues to acclimate to the outfield and Bruce loses range. And can we stop acting like Bruce is some standout weapon in right field? He's had two very good defensive seasons, and a few mediocre ones, including this year which has been pretty poor. He's no Reddick, Heyward, or Victorino out there. What you said about Betts just makes me think of Ryan Kalish. Wish him not to be like Kalish's final! I think that midseason's ranking is not very accurate,Domonic Brown was selected No.1 prospect of MLB,is his performance equal to what scout report told us? In the preseason ranking, Betts is just No.75. Most of prospects in front of him graduated from Milb,so he had the chance to climb up to top 25. I still projects him as a "good player" but a "excellant"one!
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:28:40 GMT -5
By the way, I'm not convinced that Mookie isn't a top-3-type prospect. He came in second (behind Bryant) on Keith Law's list, and if he were eligible for BA/BP/etc.'s lists (which I don't think he is), I'm confident he'd be in the top 5 and maybe the top 3. Also, the idea that player performance is uncertain cuts both ways. We don't know if Betts is going to be a great player next year, but we don't know that Bruce will be, either. The risk is maybe somewhat higher with a prospect like Betts, but Bruce is also coming off a below-replacement-level year, and he's definitely not some sure thing either. He very well may be. He was certainly deserving of a top ~10 spot this summer. My concern with him becoming a consistently top player at the MLB level is that, if he's not a center fielder, he really has to hit well and grow into a plus defender. I'm certain that he will become a good outfielder, but if he hits "just" .280-.300 with a ~125 wRC+, while that's pretty valuable, he'd be more of a very good player than an elite one. Xander, on the other hand, could grow into a 120-140 wRC+ guy at SS which would make him rather elite (I won't bother to go into my belief that Mookie could easily be as good of a defensive shortstop as Xander). Yes, Xander was a top 3 prospect last year -- he was basically a giga prospect. Just because Mookie isn't a top 3 type doesn't mean he isn't big. He is. He would have ranked in the top 25 of mid-season top prospects lists had he not exhausted his eligibility by playing in MLB. Sure, he wasn't on the radar the minute he came into the Sox organization, but he sure morphed into a fantastic prospect. Also, just because Xander was regarded at a higher level doesn't mean Mookie has an equal or greater chance to struggle. I already mentioned why I think Mookie's profile as a hitter will prevent him from having the kind of extended trouble that Xander went through for those brutal three months mid-season. Not sure what else I can say. How do I know that Mookie is more valuable than Bruce right now? He already has a far better hit tool, he certainly has a better running tool, and his fielding very well could be superior as he continues to acclimate to the outfield and Bruce loses range. And can we stop acting like Bruce is some standout weapon in right field? He's had two very good defensive seasons, and a few mediocre ones, including this year which has been pretty poor. He's no Reddick, Heyward, or Victorino out there. What you said about Betts just makes me think of Ryan Kalish. Wish him not to be like Kalish's final! I think that midseason's ranking is not very accurate,Domonic Brown was selected No.1 prospect of MLB,is his performance equal to what scout report told us? In the preseason ranking, Betts is just No.75. Most of prospects in front of him graduated from Milb,so he had the chance to climb up to top 25. I still projects him as a "good player" but a "excellant"one! Dude, I don't know what it is with you and the Ryan Kalish comp, but they aren't that similar at all. Kalish was never a .300 hitter in the minors, and didn't have the range to develop into a long term regular in center. He always struck out twice as much as Betts and walked less often, too. He was a scrappy player who people hoped would be a nice fringe-starting corner outfielder with good defense and average hitting.
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Post by bryce on Sept 17, 2014 14:31:31 GMT -5
By the way, I'm not convinced that Mookie isn't a top-3-type prospect. He came in second (behind Bryant) on Keith Law's list, and if he were eligible for BA/BP/etc.'s lists (which I don't think he is), I'm confident he'd be in the top 5 and maybe the top 3. Also, the idea that player performance is uncertain cuts both ways. We don't know if Betts is going to be a great player next year, but we don't know that Bruce will be, either. The risk is maybe somewhat higher with a prospect like Betts, but Bruce is also coming off a below-replacement-level year, and he's definitely not some sure thing either. "There are so many OFs or even surplus for us to contention next year"This scene now is like the offseason last year what everybody thought. Still,everything could happen! It can't be said that our outfield's performance is bound to be good next season,maybe it will drop again! Maybe the injury will catch either Cespedes,Betts or other OF and our outfielder can't work again! Who knows? So I think we should take conservative idea about that.
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Post by bryce on Sept 17, 2014 14:34:47 GMT -5
By the way, I'm not convinced that Mookie isn't a top-3-type prospect. He came in second (behind Bryant) on Keith Law's list, and if he were eligible for BA/BP/etc.'s lists (which I don't think he is), I'm confident he'd be in the top 5 and maybe the top 3. Also, the idea that player performance is uncertain cuts both ways. We don't know if Betts is going to be a great player next year, but we don't know that Bruce will be, either. The risk is maybe somewhat higher with a prospect like Betts, but Bruce is also coming off a below-replacement-level year, and he's definitely not some sure thing either. He very well may be. He was certainly deserving of a top ~10 spot this summer. My concern with him becoming a consistently top player at the MLB level is that, if he's not a center fielder, he really has to hit well and grow into a plus defender. I'm certain that he will become a good outfielder, but if he hits "just" .280-.300 with a ~125 wRC+, while that's pretty valuable, he'd be more of a very good player than an elite one. Xander, on the other hand, could grow into a 120-140 wRC+ guy at SS which would make him rather elite (I won't bother to go into my belief that Mookie could easily be as good of a defensive shortstop as Xander). Just wait and see! If our another top prospect still fails again,I think you will regret that we don't use him to bring back an ace pitcher which is our first step to improve now!
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:40:03 GMT -5
He very well may be. He was certainly deserving of a top ~10 spot this summer. My concern with him becoming a consistently top player at the MLB level is that, if he's not a center fielder, he really has to hit well and grow into a plus defender. I'm certain that he will become a good outfielder, but if he hits "just" .280-.300 with a ~125 wRC+, while that's pretty valuable, he'd be more of a very good player than an elite one. Xander, on the other hand, could grow into a 120-140 wRC+ guy at SS which would make him rather elite (I won't bother to go into my belief that Mookie could easily be as good of a defensive shortstop as Xander). Just wait and see! If our another top prospect still fails again,I think you will regret that we don't use him to bring back an ace pitcher which is our first step to improve now! What ace pitcher? There's even more risk with the pitcher than there is for Mookie. Is he going to be on the wrong side of 30? How much is he signed for and for how many years? Has his K% been moving in the right or wrong direction? We're not getting Sale, King Felix, or Kershaw. The options for a true ace in return for Mookie, and whatever else it'll cost, are quite limited, and for the older one's, quite risky to give away a guy who projects to be a perennial 4-6 WAR player.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 17, 2014 14:46:18 GMT -5
Just wait and see! If our another top prospect still fails again,I think you will regret that we don't use him to bring back an ace pitcher which is our first step to improve now! What ace pitcher? There's even more risk with the pitcher than there is for Mookie. Is he going to be on the wrong side of 30? How much is he signed for and for how many years? Has his K% been moving in the right or wrong direction? We're not getting Sale, King Felix, or Kershaw. The options for a true ace in return for Mookie, and whatever else it'll cost, are quite limited, and for the older one's, quite risky to give away a guy who projects to be a perennial 4-6 WAR player. Matt, don't get sucked into this discussion. Just go bang your head against a wall for 10 minutes, it's by far more productive.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2014 17:56:39 GMT -5
Just wait and see! If our another top prospect still fails again,I think you will regret that we don't use him to bring back an ace pitcher which is our first step to improve now! What ace pitcher? There's even more risk with the pitcher than there is for Mookie. Is he going to be on the wrong side of 30? How much is he signed for and for how many years? Has his K% been moving in the right or wrong direction? We're not getting Sale, King Felix, or Kershaw. The options for a true ace in return for Mookie, and whatever else it'll cost, are quite limited, and for the older one's, quite risky to give away a guy who projects to be a perennial 4-6 WAR player. Jay Bruce
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,421
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Post by ianrs on Sept 19, 2014 13:12:31 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 19, 2014 13:30:42 GMT -5
That makes me feel better
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 19, 2014 13:50:38 GMT -5
Uhh, can you point out for me where he does say the Red Sox should snag him?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 19, 2014 14:48:08 GMT -5
Jim Bowden = Bryce?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 19, 2014 14:54:12 GMT -5
Both have the same credibility
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Post by bryce on Sept 21, 2014 4:52:44 GMT -5
Can you give me the sources what Jim Boweden said,because I can't see this. This is really a "News" for me ! I haven't heard that before. Almost rumors are that Yankees is eager to get him,I didn't heard the Sox wants him.
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Post by artfuldodger on Sept 21, 2014 6:40:37 GMT -5
Bowden indicated Bruce was a bounce back candidate for next year, but suggested in the same article Craig may bounce back as well
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Post by bryce on Sept 21, 2014 7:42:42 GMT -5
Bowden indicated Bruce was a bounce back candidate for next year, but suggested in the same article Craig may bounce back as well Can you give me the whole one. Because I am not an insider of ESPN,I can only see the part of Jason Kipnis. Please help me. I will say thank you to you very much!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2014 7:53:06 GMT -5
Jim Bowden was a terrible GM who is now a terrible analyst. I wouldn't take anything he says seriously. I still don't get the Jay Bruce fetish. I guess to each their own.
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Post by jmei on Sept 21, 2014 12:03:45 GMT -5
I want to know the whole part of Jay Bruce in Jim Bowden's article. I also want to know his five examples consist of Jason Kipnis,Jay Bruce and who the rest of others are? You've posted this three times now. Please do not post it again.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 21, 2014 16:18:08 GMT -5
I would like to attempt to steer this discussion into a more interesting direction. To do this lets first just ignore every post made by Bryce up to this point and additionally not even consider Jay Bruce as a possible acquisition.
Jay Bruce had been a good hitter (not nearly great) hitter for 4 consecutive seasons in which he posted WRC+’s between 117 and 124 and looked to be a solid a 3-4 win player (I am throwing out the -3.1 BSR value from 2012 because that to me does not pass the sniff test, but if someone more knowledgeable than myself could shed some light that would be welcomed).
However, this year he has been lousy. His WRC+ is a putrid 75 (so he would fit in perfectly on the 2014 Sox) and his ISO has dipped below .150 and without his power Bruce is really not a worthwhile hitter as his hit skill has always been suspect.
One concern that jumps right off the bat is that this is the third straight season in which his BB% has decreased and his k% has risen. However with that being said, his 2014 BB% of 8.4% is solid and his 27.4 k% is bad but not terrible and neither explains why his ISO has dipped so much.
Looking at the batted ball data it appears that his GB% has shoot up dramatically. Never has he had a GB/FB ratio of 1 or higher, but this season it was 1.39. (It is worth noting though that it had increased two years running prior as well but not at this level) During Bruce’s best years his FB% was between 40-45 %, this year it was just 34%. To further worsen matters is the fact that is that his HR/FB has dipped as well. The only statistical explanation I have for this change is that he has been chasing more pitches out of the zone. His Zswing % was 4% higher this year than last, and interestingly his OSwing % is actually down by 6%.
So is it this trend of swing at more balls and taking more strikes that caused this awful season? Can it be fixed? Is this caused by a departure from sound plate discipline and approach or is it the result of a degradation of skill?
I won’t pretend that I know the answer to that. But what I do know is that there is now way in hell any team would have two players like that (Craig obviously being the other) on the roster to start the season.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2014 8:47:05 GMT -5
Good post sdiaz1. And on that note, I'd be happy to start with a Craig for Bruce offer. Because they are pretty damn similar players. And that ignores the fact that we have about 2 too many outfielders.
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Jay Bruce
Sept 23, 2014 1:59:11 GMT -5
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Post by bryce on Sept 23, 2014 1:59:11 GMT -5
I want to know the whole part of Jay Bruce in Jim Bowden's article. I also want to know his five examples consist of Jason Kipnis,Jay Bruce and who the rest of others are? You've posted this three times now. Please do not post it again. No one answer me about what Jim Bowden said,so I won't stop posting it until someone don't ignore my questions!!!!!
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 23, 2014 5:38:20 GMT -5
You've posted this three times now. Please do not post it again. No one answer me about what Jim Bowden said,so I won't stop posting it until someone don't ignore my questions!!!!! That's because, like you, most of us do not have ESPN Insider access. If someone with a subscription makes their way into this thread, maybe they'll see your string of posts and help you out. Seriously, do not ask again. This is your final warning.
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