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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 12, 2014 22:26:09 GMT -5
Swihart with his first passed ball of the year.
And of course a heart attack finish but we won. 4-2. More minor league ball.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2014 22:30:49 GMT -5
Game 5 coming up.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 12, 2014 22:36:30 GMT -5
This whole series has been excellent viewing. Two teams playing equal baseball.
Note though that the PawSox have more hits in all 4 games.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2014 22:46:05 GMT -5
... against a team that has just snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that the '86 Angels, '86 Red Sox, or 2011 Rangers would at least recognize. I'd love to do an objective analysis of what happens after teams come that close to clinching a series. You could use Win Probability as your measure. In this game, the Bulls were at 83% before Castillo singled and then at 83% again before they sent the runner home in the bottom of the 10th. Combining the two chances, that's 97%. That's ignoring the fact that the next batter after the out at the plate singled.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 12, 2014 23:04:40 GMT -5
Wow I wish next year was here. Now the top of the order is gonna be so much better with Betts and Castillo.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 13, 2014 6:34:01 GMT -5
Lavarnway wi th some clutch hitting here as well.. 4/6 1/4 2/4 1/4 This series.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 239
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Post by pd on Sept 13, 2014 8:42:14 GMT -5
Still no power though. Might be more luck than clutch.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2014 9:00:05 GMT -5
... against a team that has just snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that the '86 Angels, '86 Red Sox, or 2011 Rangers would at least recognize. I'd love to do an objective analysis of what happens after teams come that close to clinching a series. You could use Win Probability as your measure. In this game, the Bulls were at 83% before Castillo singled and then at 83% again before they sent the runner home in the bottom of the 10th. Combining the two chances, that's 97%. That's ignoring the fact that the next batter after the out at the plate singled. I don't think it's quite as bad as 86. The Red Sox were over 99% WPA when they were up 2 with no one on and 2 outs in the bottom of the 10th. And then Ray Knight was down 0-2 with runners on 1st and 2nd.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2014 9:33:35 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 13, 2014 10:14:19 GMT -5
DeJesus with the 2-run bomb. I wasn't going to say it previously, but this game was shaping up as the classic, we-should-have-been champs loss for the Bulls. One out away, and Rusney ties it; and then the Cup-winning run gets thrown out at the plate. Here I thought it was like game 2 justification or just the game in reverse myself.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2014 10:27:21 GMT -5
It was a nice tag, but Brentz's throw >>>> the tag.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2014 10:53:46 GMT -5
... against a team that has just snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that the '86 Angels, '86 Red Sox, or 2011 Rangers would at least recognize. I'd love to do an objective analysis of what happens after teams come that close to clinching a series. You could use Win Probability as your measure. In this game, the Bulls were at 83% before Castillo singled and then at 83% again before they sent the runner home in the bottom of the 10th. Combining the two chances, that's 97%. That's ignoring the fact that the next batter after the out at the plate singled. I don't think it's quite as bad as 86. The Red Sox were over 99% WPA when they were up 2 with no one on and 2 outs in the bottom of the 10th. And then Ray Knight was down 0-2 with runners on 1st and 2nd. I've been looking at the very interesting history of teams that snatched defeat from victory's jaws with at least one game left in the series. When the '75 Reds recovered from blowing their 93% chance against us in Game 6, they were the 11th of 13 clubs to do so. And that's including the 25 Senators among the two failures; they were up 3 games to 1 and had early leads for 66% and 71% WP in games 5 and 6, but lost them and game 7. Really, only the '68 Cardinals, up 3 games to 1 and at 87% in the 4th inning of game 5, come close to what we think of as an '86-style collapse. (And there were no such series between 1925 and 1968, amazingly.) In '79 the Orioles made it 12 for 14 in the ALCS when they blew game 3 to the Angels after being 89% in the 4th inning, but won game 4. And then they preceded to imitate the '25 Senators a bit: up 3-1 to the Pirates, they got to 67% in game 5 and 74% in game 7 in the course of losing three straight. And suddenly, collapsing became the thing to do. The next 8 teams to blow a chance to finish a series early all went on to lose the series. (First 12-2, then 0-9? That doesn't seem random; it's as if teams started becoming aware of the history.) And they kept on trumping the previous worst case. The '80 Astros blew a 91% shot at finishing the Phillies in 4 games the NLCS, then a 95% in game 5. In '85 the Cardinals, aided by Denkinger, became the first team to peak in the 9th (at 84%) only to lose games 6 and 7. And then came the all-time ball-breaker: the Angels up 3 games to 1 and 97% in the top of the 9th (more like 99.9% considering the batter / pitcher matchup), then 83% in the bottom of inning, plus 70% in game 6. You'd think you'd wait a lifetime to see that topped, but of course it happened in the following WS .. with us being 88% in game 7 to boot. And one can argue that the '95 Yankees ALDS loss to the Mariners was just as epic, up 2 games to 0 and blowing 63%, 90%, and then separate 86% and 84% in game 7. The '99 Braves broke the streak in the NLDS: up 3-0 to the Mets, they blew 76%, 83% (in the 15th inning), and almost blew 96% (down to 18%) in game 6. (Other collapsers: '87 Cards vs. Twins and two multi-game efforts, '84 Cubs versus Padres NLCS, and of course the '99 Indians versus us, up 2-0 and blowing 62%, 58%, and 80%.) I may continue with the 2000's ...
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2014 18:38:04 GMT -5
It was a nice tag, but Brentz's throw >>>> the tag. It was a great throw, but how often do catchers catch a long throw on a hop cleanly? It was especially special because he's moving his glove to make the tag at the same time.
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