SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 13, 2014 22:38:05 GMT -5
Are we prepared to give sandavol a nine figure contract?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2014 5:06:00 GMT -5
It's EqA / TAv. It's essentially overall offense a la wRC+ (but more accurate), scaled to be the same as BA. .260 would be average for a 3B. He was the 39th best offensive player out of 147 qualifying for the batting title. For point of comparison, Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson were .302. Valbuena was 7th out of 29 MLB 3B with 400 or more PA; the next three guys were Matt Carpenter, Pablo Sandoval, and Evan Longoria. So the question remains why would the Cubs decided to trade him for less than at least 2 top 5 org prospects - if not more? Well, he's actually better than I thought he was, when I estimated what it would take to get him, if that bat is for real. I was missing that his 2014 WAR was driven down by what seemed to be a random down year on defense. I think the Cubs will view him as someone who has 7 or even 8 WAR of value left, not 5 to 6. But two years of control, both with arb, are worth a lot less than the 6 years of control that a prospect has. To match 2 x 4 = 8 WAR of value on paper, all you need to get is a guy who has a 50% chance of busting and a 50% chance of being a 16/6 = 2.7 WAR player. You can round that down to 2.5 or so, I bet, if you factor in salary, and a player who gives you 6 years averaging 2.5 WAR probably has a 3.0 WAR peak. A player with a 1/3 chance of averaging 4.0 WAR and hence having a ceiling a bit above that, or a 2/3 chance of averaging 2.0 WAR, would also fit the bill. To get a 50% chance out of two players, each one needs a 30% chance. So the starting price, before he's bid up by other teams that need a 3B, would be two guys who have a 30% chance of peaking at 3.0 WAR. Travis and Stankiewicz would be a very solid initial offer: although their odds are lower than 30%, 8 WAR of value is a best-case scenario, too. I don't see anyone offering, for two years of a merely good to very good player, either someone with obvious star upside, or someone who projects to be a solid MLB starter and is approaching MLB-ready and hence has a high floor. Now, if there are multiple interested teams, the price could of course go steeper.
|
|
|
Post by mainesox on Oct 15, 2014 20:17:57 GMT -5
Are we prepared to give sandavol a nine figure contract? I can't speak for everyone, but I'm certainly not.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2014 20:41:52 GMT -5
Are we prepared to give sandavol a nine figure contract? I can't speak for everyone, but I'm certainly not. Absolutely not. I'm a fan of Pablo and all, but giving him $100+ million has the potential to be one of the worst contracts of all time. He's a surprisingly adept fielder right now, but he very well could be a 100 wRC+ 1B/DH in three years.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 15, 2014 21:32:24 GMT -5
Any interest in trading for plouffe to man third next season?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2014 21:52:05 GMT -5
A reminder that speculation that has no grounding in fact needs to go in the trade subforum. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 27, 2014 13:25:26 GMT -5
5. General managers from other teams don’t think the Giants will let Pablo Sandoval go, but Sunday one member of their ownership group said there is a swelling thinking that the Red Sox will end up signing The Panda. “The bigger the stage, the better he plays,” says one Giant official. “He would love Boston.” Of course, the Giants sell out every game, the debt service on the ballpark is paid off in 2017 and it is one of the most valuable franchises in the game. www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-whats-next-for-joe-maddon-yusmeiro-petit-giancarlo-stanton-and-more/
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 29, 2014 23:03:27 GMT -5
If you sign the Panda please please please do not sell panda heads
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2014 10:27:37 GMT -5
5. General managers from other teams don’t think the Giants will let Pablo Sandoval go, but Sunday one member of their ownership group said there is a swelling thinking that the Red Sox will end up signing The Panda. “The bigger the stage, the better he plays,” says one Giant official. “He would love Boston.” Of course, the Giants sell out every game, the debt service on the ballpark is paid off in 2017 and it is one of the most valuable franchises in the game. www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-whats-next-for-joe-maddon-yusmeiro-petit-giancarlo-stanton-and-more/Yeah he must be dying to get out of that obscure backwater of a city SAN FRANCISCO. What?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2014 11:53:55 GMT -5
5. General managers from other teams don’t think the Giants will let Pablo Sandoval go, but Sunday one member of their ownership group said there is a swelling thinking that the Red Sox will end up signing The Panda. “The bigger the stage, the better he plays,” says one Giant official. “He would love Boston.” Of course, the Giants sell out every game, the debt service on the ballpark is paid off in 2017 and it is one of the most valuable franchises in the game. www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-whats-next-for-joe-maddon-yusmeiro-petit-giancarlo-stanton-and-more/Yeah he must be dying to get out of that obscure backwater of a city SAN FRANCISCO. What? In terms of baseball towns, it absolutely makes sense. Have you been to a game out there? I haven't been to San Fran, but I've been to a Dodgers game - it doesn't get full until around the third inning and people start leaving in the seventh. Even with a marquee team in a huge market like the Dodgers - think about, for example, if Clayton Kershaw played for the Yankees, how much bigger a deal he'd be. It's just a much different culture out there in terms of sports. It's not necessarily a matter of how large the city is.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 30, 2014 13:40:39 GMT -5
I can't speak for everyone, but I'm certainly not. Absolutely not. I'm a fan of Pablo and all, but giving him $100+ million has the potential to be one of the worst contracts of all time. He's a surprisingly adept fielder right now, but he very well could be a 100 wRC+ 1B/DH in three years. So many negatives with this guy.. Weighs 250lbs. Constant struggles maintaining THAT weight and who knows if he would do it if he got his big payday. OPS has been in the .700's last 3 seasons. Defense as he gets older isn't going to be much at 3b and it's not THAT good now. He doesn't get on base at a very good OBP to be of much use as a 1b/DH. Move him away from 3b.. What good is he? As have posted before.. Flashing lights on this guy to stay away, unless 3y and very cheap.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 30, 2014 13:54:04 GMT -5
Some of those California cities really are into their respective clubs, then there is the Padres.. i remember attending several games at the old San Diego stadium.. WAY back, like before the old Jack Murphy stadium even, when fans hardly even showed up at all.. It was like going to a Marlins game where you would see huge empty spots in the outfield.. Then a large white spot (a group of sailors in summer dress uniforms) then another massive empty spot. Then those teams really didn't have a lot other than Randy Jones and Ozzie Smith.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 30, 2014 14:09:02 GMT -5
Trying to determine Valbuena's trade value, here's a comp:
Luis Valbuena, 2 years of control left, 938 PA last 2 years, 4.0 aWAR total Daniel Nava, 3 years of control left, 944 PA last 2 years, 5.2 aWAR total
That's not quite a trade proposal, but if we could deal Cespedes for Heyward, the presence of Holt on the bench means that you no longer have a pressing need for Nava's bat there.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2014 14:11:40 GMT -5
Jack Murphy was/is really way out of town. San Diego was a perfect place for a downtown stadium (which it got), because it has a nice, vibrant downtown and because the traffic on the outskirts of the city is so rotten. Those 70's teams were an expansion team that played in the burbs and stunk - it stands to reason that people in the city didn't go out to see them. The Padres have had real trouble sustaining success for basically their entire existence.
Also, the first time I drove to Dodger Stadium I realized why everyone shows up in the third inning. I was nine miles away and left at 5:30 and missed the 7:30 start. LA is also the only place where I've ever taken real heat from other "fans" for wearing a Red Sox hat. Even at Yankee Stadium it's always been good-natured (though I've never sat in the bleachers).
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2014 14:42:08 GMT -5
I'll take Panda on a 6 year deal with some sort of weight clause in it if they can get away with it (something not oppressive - just, say, he has a top end of 10lbs more than his signing weight). Anyone with me on that?
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 30, 2014 14:43:04 GMT -5
If you sign the Panda please please please do not sell panda heads You should start by not calling him the panda then.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2014 14:50:22 GMT -5
I'll take Panda on a 6 year deal with some sort of weight clause in it if they can get away with it (something not oppressive - just, say, he has a top end of 10lbs more than his signing weight). Anyone with me on that? No freakin way. So we can have a 1B/DH OPSing .700 making $20 million a year? The guy is not going to stay at 3rd long.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2014 15:58:43 GMT -5
I'll take Panda on a 6 year deal with some sort of weight clause in it if they can get away with it (something not oppressive - just, say, he has a top end of 10lbs more than his signing weight). Anyone with me on that? As far as I know, weight clauses are usually structured as a bonus that the player receives if he weighs in below the limit, and the bonuses are usually pretty small (less than $1m). I've never heard of a deal where the deal voids if he comes in overweight or anything. In that light, a weight clause will be very minimal protection for a signing team.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2014 17:31:46 GMT -5
Yeah he must be dying to get out of that obscure backwater of a city SAN FRANCISCO. What? In terms of baseball towns, it absolutely makes sense. Have you been to a game out there? I haven't been to San Fran, but I've been to a Dodgers game - it doesn't get full until around the third inning and people start leaving in the seventh. Even with a marquee team in a huge market like the Dodgers - think about, for example, if Clayton Kershaw played for the Yankees, how much bigger a deal he'd be. It's just a much different culture out there in terms of sports. It's not necessarily a matter of how large the city is. You should go tell a bunch of Giants fans that they're the same as Dodgers fans. I think they will react very graciously to that.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2014 17:39:26 GMT -5
I'll take Panda on a 6 year deal with some sort of weight clause in it if they can get away with it (something not oppressive - just, say, he has a top end of 10lbs more than his signing weight). Anyone with me on that? As far as I know, weight clauses are usually structured as a bonus that the player receives if he weighs in below the limit, and the bonuses are usually pretty small (less than $1m). I've never heard of a deal where the deal voids if he comes in overweight or anything. In that light, a weight clause will be very minimal protection for a signing team. Yeah there's approximately zero chance of getting any significant weight clause into a hypothetical Sandoval contract. And even if there was I'm not sure how much it would matter because his weight is already problematic. Even if you have a guarantee it's not going to go up any more he already looks like a guy who's not going to age well.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2014 17:42:01 GMT -5
Also I'm probably crazy but I think Lowrie would be a decent option.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 30, 2014 18:26:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Oct 30, 2014 18:30:04 GMT -5
Yeah he must be dying to get out of that obscure backwater of a city SAN FRANCISCO. What? In terms of baseball towns, it absolutely makes sense. Have you been to a game out there? I haven't been to San Fran, but I've been to a Dodgers game - it doesn't get full until around the third inning and people start leaving in the seventh. Even with a marquee team in a huge market like the Dodgers - think about, for example, if Clayton Kershaw played for the Yankees, how much bigger a deal he'd be. It's just a much different culture out there in terms of sports. It's not necessarily a matter of how large the city is. SF is a surprisingly great sports town, and they love their Gigantes. Not at all like L.A. I'm not sure anything compares to Boston, but it's in the upper tier of baseball cities, in my humble opinion.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2014 18:48:44 GMT -5
Also I'm probably crazy but I think Lowrie would be a decent option. I would take Lowrie on 2 years but I think he'll get 3 or more.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2014 18:53:18 GMT -5
Also with Panda, if he didn't go for a creative option on a weight clause then I would offer him 6 years with an opt out after 3. He'd only be 31 and if he's doing well he'll exercise. Sox will have Devers or some other candidate ready by then. Either way, unless he completely face plants his decline shouldn't come until after ages 30/31, should be gradual and he could part-time DH in years 3-6 to minimize.
|
|
|