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Post by brockholtsuperstar on Nov 3, 2014 15:44:17 GMT -5
I know this isn't really relevant, but Carlos Rivero was claimed today off waivers so a little depth gone. Ends Red Sox career with .571 big league batting average.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 3, 2014 16:14:34 GMT -5
He just turned 26 and other than a couple months of hot streaks in 2013? His bat has reeked for 2 seasons in a row. How is that rushing a young prospect who spent 4 full seasons at minor league ball prior to his initial MLB appearance and has had several MiLB stints since?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2014 16:33:39 GMT -5
He just turned 26 and other than a couple months of hot streaks in 2013? His bat has reeked for 2 seasons in a row. How is that rushing a young prospect who spent 4 full seasons at minor league ball prior to his initial MLB appearance and has had several MiLB stints since? WMB was rushed initially. Cecchini shouldn't be, especially because he hasn't hit at AAA yet.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 3, 2014 17:49:14 GMT -5
He just turned 26 and other than a couple months of hot streaks in 2013? His bat has reeked for 2 seasons in a row. How is that rushing a young prospect who spent 4 full seasons at minor league ball prior to his initial MLB appearance and has had several MiLB stints since? WMB was rushed initially. Cecchini shouldn't be, especially because he hasn't hit at AAA yet. I agree with jimed on this....his numbers were not great his first 3 years..he had that wonderful AA run..and then he had all of 149 AAA at-bats before he was chosen as the replacement for Youk...by he that shall not be named. In hindsight...I think he should have stayed in AAA ball for the 2012 season. He's a mixed bag...always has been...but it is fair to say he was rushed.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 3, 2014 17:51:35 GMT -5
This is beside Cecchini, he has nothing to do with it. Middlebrooks not being rushed, just not hitting after 2 seasons does.
I agree Cecchini may not be quite ready yet, was only a suggestion earlier, same with Holt as temporary 3b caretaker if they do not find a 3b via trade/fa.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 3, 2014 19:23:51 GMT -5
Got a chance to watch Sandoval play for San Jose in 2008. Honestly, Sandoval's shape isn't all that much different now than it was then. I'm more worried about the serious decline in his numbers over the last four years. Both his on-base percentage and his slugging have been headed in the same direction, and that's down. If that trend were to continue then in two years - never mind the five that's being thrown around - he'd be hovering right around .700 OPS. That's middle-infielder territory, positions he won't be playing any time soon. I know that salaries have been inflating even as offensive numbers have been deflating, but where does a team draw the line? This is a reasonable point, and something that any team considering him would have to take into consideration. I think the concern can be mitigated to a large extent by two things. First, there has been a general decline in hitting for the past several years. I don't think it is as precipitous as his decline from his record four years ago, but probably more in line with his very slight decline over the past three years. Second, his performance in the post-season was sensational. It is not uncommon for an unheralded player to have a sudden huge performance in a short series - and there have been a number of such notable performances in the World Series - but he did it throughout. I thought he looked very good, better than I expected from what I had read read, and from his season stats. I think he would hit better in Fenway than in SF. And he moves very well forthe way he is built. He could be an Ortiz type rather than the other. However, this probably is academic because the odds of the Sox signing him are awfully low.
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Post by jdb on Nov 3, 2014 19:37:56 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Nov 3, 2014 20:45:32 GMT -5
If you want to talk defense, a Murphy-Bogaerts tandem would be pretty ugly itself.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 3, 2014 20:51:15 GMT -5
This is beside Cecchini, he has nothing to do with it. Middlebrooks not being rushed, just not hitting after 2 seasons does. I agree Cecchini may not be quite ready yet, was only a suggestion earlier, same with Holt as temporary 3b caretaker if they do not find a 3b via trade/fa. It still seems like bogey is better suited for third instead of short.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 4, 2014 8:26:14 GMT -5
This is beside Cecchini, he has nothing to do with it. Middlebrooks not being rushed, just not hitting after 2 seasons does. I agree Cecchini may not be quite ready yet, was only a suggestion earlier, same with Holt as temporary 3b caretaker if they do not find a 3b via trade/fa. The only issue I had was with the suggestion that Cecchini could/should have been in the majors.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 4, 2014 15:10:16 GMT -5
I still think cechini needs better numbers in Pawtucket before the sox bring him to boston.
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Post by thursty on Nov 5, 2014 10:21:56 GMT -5
This is beside Cecchini, he has nothing to do with it. Middlebrooks not being rushed, just not hitting after 2 seasons does. I agree Cecchini may not be quite ready yet, was only a suggestion earlier, same with Holt as temporary 3b caretaker if they do not find a 3b via trade/fa. It still seems like bogey is better suited for third instead of short. Or LF or DH
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 5, 2014 10:34:07 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan1615 on Nov 5, 2014 11:04:35 GMT -5
This is beside Cecchini, he has nothing to do with it. Middlebrooks not being rushed, just not hitting after 2 seasons does. I agree Cecchini may not be quite ready yet, was only a suggestion earlier, same with Holt as temporary 3b caretaker if they do not find a 3b via trade/fa. It still seems like bogey is better suited for third instead of short. How could anyone say this when he's looked much better at SS than 3B? It still seems like bogey is better suited for third instead of short. Or LF or DH This is ridiculous. To be bad enough at SS to be worth it to move him to left field, Xander would have to be worth -10 runs at SS every year and be at least average at LF. That's like Yuniesky Betancourt level defense every year. Bogaerts was clearly better than that his rookie year. To move to DH, Xander would have to be -25 runs every year, the worst defensive shortstop of all time by a long shot. I don't think anybody thinks Xander is that.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 5, 2014 11:38:04 GMT -5
It still seems like bogey is better suited for third instead of short. Or LF or DH Have you really concluded that Bogaerts is so bad at shortstop as to join Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz and others who can't handle a regular position?
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Post by thursty on Nov 5, 2014 12:28:04 GMT -5
Have you really concluded that Bogaerts is so bad at shortstop as to join Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz and others who can't handle a regular position? There are a lot of red herrings/straw men. I've concluded that he's defensively Derek Jeter without the steadiness. I don't know how bad that is in terms of runs - but I do know it's really bad. You can't make meaningful valuations without considering the alternatives; e.g. if Andrelton Simmons were on my team, Xander Bogaerts would not be allowed to play an inning of SS; and if Alex Gordon was manning LF, then DH or 1B would be the logical spot.
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Post by terriblehondo on Nov 5, 2014 12:38:36 GMT -5
Have you really concluded that Bogaerts is so bad at shortstop as to join Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz and others who can't handle a regular position? Xander is horrible at 3rd and bad at SS. The thought of Xander and Sandoval on the left side of the infield scares me. The grass better be 6" deep or the pitchers will need to throw a ton of at him balls because there will not be any range.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Nov 5, 2014 12:44:52 GMT -5
Have you really concluded that Bogaerts is so bad at shortstop as to join Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz and others who can't handle a regular position? Xander is horrible at 3rd and bad at SS. The thought of Xander and Sandoval on the left side of the infield scares me. The grass better be 6" deep or the pitchers will need to throw a ton of at him balls because there will not be any range. Sandoval is good at 3B
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2014 13:07:26 GMT -5
Bogaerts will be 22 for all of 2015. In other words, less than a year older than the college guys the Red Sox drafted as juniors this year, like Travis and McAvoy. He could easily continue to improve at short. You'd be nuts to move him off this soon just because you didn't like how he looked there in 2014.
Now, sure, if you got Andrelton Simmons in the offseason, then yeah, move him. But they don't have Andrelton Simmons. Andrelton Simmons doesn't grow on trees. Deven Marrero isn't quite ready yet offensively. Bogaerts has the tools to be at least an average defensive shortstop, and I think you'd be nuts not to at least give him another season to grow into the position.
If Bogaerts meets his realistic potential at third base or left field, he's potentially an all-star. If he does so at shortstop, that's an MVP candidate.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 5, 2014 13:12:54 GMT -5
Andrelton Simmons doesn't grow on trees. /quote] On a persimmons tree, right?
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Post by charliezink16 on Nov 5, 2014 16:06:12 GMT -5
Bogaerts will be 22 for all of 2015. In other words, less than a year older than the college guys the Red Sox drafted as juniors this year, like Travis and McAvoy. He could easily continue to improve at short. You'd be nuts to move him off this soon just because you didn't like how he looked there in 2014. Now, sure, if you got Andrelton Simmons in the offseason, then yeah, move him. But they don't have Andrelton Simmons. Andrelton Simmons doesn't grow on trees. Deven Marrero isn't quite ready yet offensively. Bogaerts has the tools to be at least an average defensive shortstop, and I think you'd be nuts not to at least give him another season to grow into the position. If Bogaerts meets his realistic potential at third base or left field, he's potentially an all-star. If he does so at shortstop, that's an MVP candidate. Yes, this. Please stop with the Bogaerts to 3B talk. Fangraphs just wrote up a quick article on him here. "He posted an impossibly bad -29.4 UZR/150 at third base, along with a less scary, but still poor, -3.7 mark at shortstop."
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Post by thursty on Nov 5, 2014 16:53:41 GMT -5
I realize that no amount of reason, or data, is going to dissuade the Xan-fans from their belief that Bogaerts is the 2nd coming. I get it. But I have a serious question; the post that Chris wrote, I would bet could have been written word-for-word after *last* season.
In your minds, did 2014 not happen? You know the year where the future MVP had a -20 RE (2nd worst in the AL !!), an 82 wRC+, and on and on I could go. And please, I know his age (and I know Giancarlo's 21-year old season where he put up an easy 141 wRC+, and Trout's, and Harper's 19-year old season) Isn't there even the tiniest little doubt that crept into your minds (e.g. when you see he hit .120 against sliders, and .115 against curveballs)? Perhaps a downward adjustment at least to his floor (I'll bet none of you would have forecast a year like 2014 *before* the fact). It's one thing to believe so much in a player that you can rationalize a 21-year-old's deep struggles; I dearly hope you'll have got it right. but it's quite another to dismiss and ignore significant and salient evidence - that leads you straight to Amaroville
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 5, 2014 17:44:20 GMT -5
I realize that no amount of reason, or data, is going to dissuade the Xan-fans from their belief that Bogaerts is the 2nd coming. I get it. But I have a serious question; the post that Chris wrote, I would bet could have been written word-for-word after *last* season. In your minds, did 2014 not happen? You know the year where the future MVP had a -20 RE (2nd worst in the AL !!), an 82 wRC+, and on and on I could go. And please, I know his age (and I know Giancarlo's 21-year old season where he put up an easy 141 wRC+, and Trout's, and Harper's 19-year old season) Isn't there even the tiniest little doubt that crept into your minds (e.g. when you see he hit .120 against sliders, and .115 against curveballs)? Perhaps a downward adjustment at least to his floor (I'll bet none of you would have forecast a year like 2014 *before* the fact). It's one thing to believe so much in a player that you can rationalize a 21-year-old's deep struggles; I dearly hope you'll have got it right. but it's quite another to dismiss and ignore significant and salient evidence - that leads you straight to Amaroville Projecting the future for a 22-year old in the ML by extrapolating their first year is a mistake. Here are the numbers for some highly touted prospects, some of the cream of the crop from last year: Gregory Polanco: .235/.307/.343 Oscar Taveras: .239/.278/.312 Wil Myers: .222/.294/.320 Kolten Wong: .236/.280/.360 Arismendy Alcantara: .205/.254/.367 Travis d'Arnaud: .233/.299/.384 and of course the Sox own Jackie Bradley. Do you think all those players will crap out? I don't. Do you think there might be a few other things at work? I certainly do. Because the new guys weren't the only ones who tanked. There were a lot of crappy numbers out there this year. Baseball offense is cratering, and there are probably a few reasons for it. It's why, incidentally, a lot of posters on the board are reluctant to anoint Betts as the next big thing. But taking a players initial big league season as some sort marker for their future is a mistake, it really is. This isn't 2010 when Stanton showed up. And Harper? He was .273/.344/.423 this year, down from his rookie year even. The numbers are those of a mid-level prospect with three years under his belt as this point. I don't think anyone knows how Bogaerts is going to end up, as the guy who tore up Apr, May and Sep, or the other one who struggled Jun-Aug. But there's enough promise that some of us are willing to give that 22-year old a chance.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2014 17:44:32 GMT -5
thursty, what were your thoughts mid-season when he was in the top 5 in the American League in obp and people were saying he should be hitting second in the lineup? I'm not saying we should ignore when he wasn't hitting, but aren't you just ignoring when he was?
This isn't Jackie Bradley, who looked completely lost for almost all of the time he was in the majors. Bogaerts' wOBA was 16th among qualifying shortstops across baseball. Expand that out to shortstops with 250 PAs, and he's still 23rd out of 40. He was still good for half a win above replacement (Fangraphs). If Bogaerts even hits something like .280/.340/.450 with average defense, then he's arguably the second-best offensive shortstop in the game behind Tulo. If he hits something like .300/.380/.520, then yes, he's an MVP candidate. And those numbers aren't crazy - he was hitting .299/.387/.452 in early June this year, and his power, as we know, hadn't translated at the major league level yet. Maybe it won't. Not saying it's a sure thing. But because he had a three-month slump doesn't mean there's now no chance it'll happen.
Nobody is ignoring any evidence here. As you'll hear on the interview we did with Speier, the majority of those within the game he talked to would still rank Bogaerts ahead of Betts. The problem with what you're doing is saying because a player wasn't Trout, Harper, or Stanton, he was therefore a bust. I could give you examples right back (go check out Tulo's cup of coffee in his age 21 season, for one). Young players struggled like crazy across baseball this year. It doesn't mean they're all suddenly terrible.
I'm not saying he's a surefire future HOF'er. I'm saying that if he can play a league average shortstop and reaches the upper end of his reasonable projection, even adjusting for this year, that's an MVP candidate at his peak.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 5, 2014 19:01:29 GMT -5
Bogaerts will be 22 for all of 2015. In other words, less than a year older than the college guys the Red Sox drafted as juniors this year, like Travis and McAvoy. He could easily continue to improve at short. You'd be nuts to move him off this soon just because you didn't like how he looked there in 2014. Now, sure, if you got Andrelton Simmons in the offseason, then yeah, move him. But they don't have Andrelton Simmons. Andrelton Simmons doesn't grow on trees. Deven Marrero isn't quite ready yet offensively. Bogaerts has the tools to be at least an average defensive shortstop, and I think you'd be nuts not to at least give him another season to grow into the position. If Bogaerts meets his realistic potential at third base or left field, he's potentially an all-star. If he does so at shortstop, that's an MVP candidate. Yes, this. Please stop with the Bogaerts to 3B talk. Fangraphs just wrote up a quick article on him here. "He posted an impossibly bad -29.4 UZR/150 at third base, along with a less scary, but still poor, -3.7 mark at shortstop." Which makes sense since he had even less time at 3B in the majors than at shortstop. Throw in that he wasn't real happy about it...was struggling at the plate...and was in his rookie season...I'm going to give the guy a break on the defensive metrics.
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