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Post by cambos174 on Nov 3, 2014 21:14:15 GMT -5
Long time reader, first time posting.
Couldn't find a thread that would fit this trade idea any better than this one, so here goes:
What about an exchange of bad contracts (& probably some additional $ coming from the Sox) of Victorino and Mark Buerhle?
Buerhle has been effective, but $19 mil is exorbitant for the Jays (or anybody, really) to pay for him. The Jays could instead, utilize Buerhle to replace Melky with Victorino and save 8-9 million, assuming the Sox kick a few million in.
For the Sox, it solves (partially) the logjam in the OF and adds a pretty reliable #3 starter for 8-9 million (above what we currently have on the books) and only a one-year commitment.
I'd feel infinitely better about the rotation if the Sox could make a move like this prior to getting into the craziness that the FA pitching market will have in store.
FA Ace
Buch
Buerhle
Kelly
RDLR, et al
Nothing amazing, but it is conceivable that there would be enough room below the cap to sign a Shields on top of Lester, if we're able to extract some value out of Victorino's contract or could trade Cespedes + a young pitching prospect or two for another starter (i.e. Mets or Reds starter or potentially Iwakuma), bumping RDLR from the rotation.
Lester
Leake
Buch
Buerhle
Kelly
That'd work for me. Plenty of upside while enough certainty that the Sox should be in the playoff picture.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 3, 2014 22:28:20 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Buehrle's luxury tax number is only $12.5 million - less than Victorino's. Considering that Buehrle is still an extremely effective mid-rotation starter, that deal makes little sense for the Blue Jays. Even at $19 million he's actually a pretty good bargain. He's a better pitcher than James Shields, who is going to get a lot more money.
There's also the dangerous possibility that Mark Buehrle is an alien. Or robot. Or maybe a strat-o-matic baseball card that has somehow ended up in actual box scores. The dude has been having the exact same teammate since he was a teammate of Harold Baines.
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Post by jmei on Nov 3, 2014 22:33:11 GMT -5
This is a really interesting and creative idea. The other thing about Buehrle is that his AAV for luxury tax purposes is a mere $14.5m while he gets actually paid $19m, which makes him more appealing to a team like the Red Sox that is more concerned about tax dollars than actual dollars.
You'd be selling low on Victorino, a guy who was one of the better players in baseball as recently as a year ago and who is only 33 (in other words, past his prime but not ancient). But he will also be coming off serious back surgery and his injury history means you can't rely on him to be the starter without a strong backup plan. I kind of think the 2015 Red Sox might be the perfect situation for him-- they don't have to rely on him, considering their extensive outfield depth (Castillo, Betts, Nava), and they can give him a minor role (say, the short end of the platoon in LF, assuming they trade Cespedes) to start working him in and go from there.
But on the other hand, Buehrle is the ideal mid-rotation starter who would help settle down their rotation, and they'd be filling that role without either adding a ton of salary or giving up prospects (and by dealing from a position of depth). Buehrle is a lower-ceiling but higher-floor guy than Victorino, which this team could use considering the significant number of high-variance players on their roster (Castillo, Betts, Bogaerts, Buchholz, etc). And there's something to be said about removing the temptation to play a likely-rusty/hobbled Victorino over Betts in RF, which Farrell may well otherwise succumb to. In the end, I would probably be willing to trade Victorino and, say, $3m for Buehrle.
But would the Blue Jays do that deal? They seem cash-conscious enough that they just dealt a useful player in Lind for not much return, and they didn't make a move at the deadline, so maybe they're desperate enough to cut payroll that they would move a valuable major league piece.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 4, 2014 9:44:08 GMT -5
I would do this in a heartbeat, but I feel that Toronto would be getting the short end of the stick. I like it because we would get that 2nd tier starter we need as you said at an additional cost less than what it would take on the market. Someone like McCarthy or Peavy I think would cost at a minimum 12M, and probably more than 1 Year commitment.
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2014 6:39:57 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2014 12:50:18 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Buehrle's luxury tax number is only $12.5 million - less than Victorino's. Considering that Buehrle is still an extremely effective mid-rotation starter, that deal makes little sense for the Blue Jays. Even at $19 million he's actually a pretty good bargain. He's a better pitcher than James Shields, who is going to get a lot more money. There's also the dangerous possibility that Mark Buehrle is an alien. Or robot. Or maybe a strat-o-matic baseball card that has somehow ended up in actual box scores. The dude has been having the exact same teammate since he was a teammate of Harold Baines. You think Buehrle is a better pitcher than Shields, Why? Shields pitched more innings, had more quality starts, had lower Whip, lower ERA, had a lot more strikeouts and won more games. I look at Shields as a very good number two, was the Royals Ace. I see Buehrle as a number 3. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 5, 2014 12:59:59 GMT -5
I'm willing to bump up Buehrle to a 2 just based on the fact he could help skim 2 hours off a typical Red Sox/Yankees game
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2014 13:03:09 GMT -5
I'm not worried about strikeouts and WHIP with Buehrle, since he's been outperforming his peripheral stats for 15 years. And it's not an accident either - he's the best fielding pitcher in the game, as well as the best at holding runners on.
I probably overstated by calling him better than Shields, who has an ERA+ of 124 for the past four years (which is better than I realized). But I think both are basically very good mid-rotation starters, but one of them is going to get something like 5/$100 million while the other is somehow considered bad money at 1/$19.
Anyway, the acquisition of Saunders makes this initial discussion kind of moot. I can't see the Blue Jays, who need arms, trading a good an durable one for an outfielder.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2014 17:48:45 GMT -5
5 years and 100 million is crazy for Shields at 33. Maybe a 4 year 80 million, 5th year vest if he pitches 800 plus innings, 800 strikeouts, 120 plus starts or wins 60 or more games. Still a very risky deal for a solid number two.
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