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Xander Bogaerts's SS defense
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,806
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2014 17:12:26 GMT -5
This last season, while some were claiming that Xander was the best player on the team (you all know who you are), I was advocating a shift to left field (since this is where his poor infield defense is going to eventually land him anyway). The problem now is that Hanley's taken over left field for the next four years. This is only going to quicken Xander eventually losing this game of musical chairs the Red Sox seem to be playing, plugging players into positions they've either never played before or are ill suited to play. Last season and this season, you were exaggerating how poor his defense actually is. Also you don't play people where you think they might end up eventually, you play then where they add the most value to the team. I might end up in a convalescent home 65 years, but I sure as hell won't move to one tomorrow in anticipation of that.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 27, 2014 17:41:38 GMT -5
From 2002to 2010 Derek Jeter put up over 42 fwar. The -3.7 uzr/150 that Xander put up last year would have been the the fouth best defensive season of that stretch.
If Xander hits as everyone believes that he can, all of this is pointless. Being slightly below average defensively is far far from being a fatal flaw.
Edit: I left out the - because I typed my response on a phone. Though the context of my post really ought to have made it clear that we were talking about a negative UZR.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 27, 2014 18:59:03 GMT -5
That was a -3.7 UZR/150 last year - which I agree is pretty Jetarian.
But in all honesty I never thought Jeter was worth a damn as a SS, either and he should've moved to 3rd or CF when they got ARod.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2014 19:34:58 GMT -5
That was a -3.7 UZR/150 last year - which I agree is pretty Jetarian. But in all honesty I never thought Jeter was worth a damn as a SS, either and he should've moved to 3rd or CF when they got ARod.The Yankees managed to win several baseball games in spite of this.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 27, 2014 20:30:22 GMT -5
Defensively, Xander aspires to be now what Hanley was ten years ago. Haha. You should probbaly take a break from this thread.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2014 0:02:50 GMT -5
That was a -3.7 UZR/150 last year - which I agree is pretty Jetarian. Well, hard to say that's true if look up Jeter's actual numbers. -7.1 UZR/150 for his career, and in his last three healthy seasons, -9.2, -15.2, and -12.5. He's been below -5.0 in 8 of the 12 seasons in which he's played over 1000 innings. He's got 4 seasons below -10.0. So -3.7 isn't Jeterian at all, imo. Of course, he was randomly well into positive numbers back in '09, so maybe the issue is that we're putting too much stock into defensive metrics in the first place here.
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Post by ray88h66 on Nov 28, 2014 18:36:12 GMT -5
I'm one that can't stand Xander's D, but will say no more. Sox have decided to go with him at ss for 2015 so I'll just root for him. Hope he rakes.
Good to see Norbit is a mod.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 28, 2014 19:18:43 GMT -5
Thanks man.
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2014 20:45:18 GMT -5
Yes, let's only look at one year's worth of offensive performance and seriously compare Xander Bogaerts to Brandon Crawford offensively. Let's completely ignore his pedigree and the dozens of scouts who have been drooling over him for years.
Bogaerts absolutely has Jeter-esque offensive upside, and at this point last year, there were plenty of folks who genuinely and reasonably thought he could approach Jeter's career 119 wRC+ as soon as 2014. That didn't end up happening, but let's not forget that Xander had a 138 wRC+ through the first two months last year. He'll almost certainly not match Jeter's longevity and consistency, but I'd honestly be surprised if he didn't have multiple seasons where he surpassed Jeter's career context-adjusted line.
Steamer projects a very reasonable and reachable .260/.323/.408 (103 wRC+). At that level of offensive performance, he'd be about a two-and-a-half win player over 600 PAs (at his 2014 level of SS defense) and a very deserving starter. So let's say slightly worse than that is how good he needs to be offensively to be an above-average starter at SS overall.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2014 20:54:10 GMT -5
Yes, let's only look at one year's worth of offensive performance and seriously compare Xander Bogaerts to Brandon Crawford offensively. Let's completely ignore his pedigree and the dozens of scouts who have been drooling over him for years. Bogaerts absolutely has Jeter-esque offensive upside, and at this point last year, there were plenty of folks who genuinely and reasonably thought he could approach Jeter's career 119 wRC+ as soon as 2014. That didn't end up happening, but let's not forget that Xander had a 138 wRC+ through the first two months last year. He'll almost certainly not match Jeter's longevity and consistency, but I'd honestly be surprised if he didn't have multiple seasons where he surpassed Jeter's career context-adjusted line. Steamer projects a very reasonable and reachable .260/.323/.408 (103 wRC+). At that level of offensive performance, he'd be about a two-and-a-half win player over 600 PAs (at his 2014 level of SS defense) and a very deserving starter. So let's say slightly worse than that is how good he needs to be offensively to be an above-average starter at SS overall. This is the absolute least of my worries at this point. I'd only ever give him up for Tulowiski and I bet that's how the front office feels as well. I believe he'll be the best SS since Nomar, and maybe better. Maybe even more importantly, is that the only reason the Red Sox can spend like they have been is exactly because of guys like Xander and Mookie (and Vazquez/Swihart). Because of that, they cannot afford to trade them away.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 29, 2014 11:58:31 GMT -5
I'm one that can't stand Xander's D, but will say no more. Sox have decided to go with him at ss for 2015 so I'll just root for him. Hope he rakes.
This actually raises an interesting point. How good must Xander's offensive game be in order to balance out his defensive deficiencies? Many here have rationalized the Red Sox playing Xander at shortstop to the Yankees having Derek Jeter play the position. But, I haven't seen many contend that Xander is going to be a comparable offensive player to Derek Jeter. And, if they were to, on what basis would they make such a bold comparison? To date, Xander's offensive game has compared more to that of Brandon Crawford. But, of course, Crawford is the far superior defensive player.
Wow this is getting frustrating. Xander's defense last year according to UZR/150 (though I am of the opinion that year to year UZR stats mean little - and that what is useful is to look at a three year sampling) would have ranked as one of Jeter's BEST (I can't believe you guys are making me use all caps) seasons and almost twice as good as a typical Jeter season for the 10 or so years where UZR data was available (So not including 1996-2001). Of Course Derek Jeter was not a good defensive shortstop, that was not the argument. The argument was that despite being a well below average defensive player, Jeter still was an excellent player for many seasons. If we take these UZR numbers at face value, and IF we un-bunch our panties and stop freaking out that Xander had the audacity to struggle in his age 21 (Brandon Crawford spent his age 21 season playing in rookie ball) what we are left with is a guy who is below average defensively at the most premium position on the field, whose projected peak is to hit about 20-30% better than the average hitter. Even if he settles in as a negative 5 UZR at shortstop, he would still be a 4- 5 win player.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 29, 2014 19:40:22 GMT -5
Congrats on being a moderator, Norbito! A sharp mind and an even hand. We can do no better.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 29, 2014 20:12:20 GMT -5
Thanks Guidas!!
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Post by zimmerdown on Nov 29, 2014 20:27:38 GMT -5
Congrats on being a moderator, Norbito! A sharp mind and an even hand. We can do no better. I have been reading this site for a long time now and I couldn't agree more. Congrats, Norbit!
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 29, 2014 21:51:25 GMT -5
Norb is a mod now??? Talk about a disaster waiting to happen!!!
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 29, 2014 22:13:23 GMT -5
Haha thanks guys, even you wcp3.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,806
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2014 22:32:03 GMT -5
Yes, let's only look at one year's worth of offensive performance and seriously compare Xander Bogaerts to Brandon Crawford offensively. Let's completely ignore his pedigree and the dozens of scouts who have been drooling over him for years. Bogaerts absolutely has Jeter-esque offensive upside, and at this point last year, there were plenty of folks who genuinely and reasonably thought he could approach Jeter's career 119 wRC+ as soon as 2014. That didn't end up happening, but let's not forget that Xander had a 138 wRC+ through the first two months last year. He'll almost certainly not match Jeter's longevity and consistency, but I'd honestly be surprised if he didn't have multiple seasons where he surpassed Jeter's career context-adjusted line. Steamer projects a very reasonable and reachable .260/.323/.408 (103 wRC+). At that level of offensive performance, he'd be about a two-and-a-half win player over 600 PAs (at his 2014 level of SS defense) and a very deserving starter. So let's say slightly worse than that is how good he needs to be offensively to be an above-average starter at SS overall. This is the absolute least of my worries at this point. I'd only ever give him up for Tulowiski and I bet that's how the front office feels as well. I believe he'll be the best SS since Nomar, and maybe better. Maybe even more importantly, is that the only reason the Red Sox can spend like they have been is exactly because of guys like Xander and Mookie (and Vazquez/Swihart). Because of that, they cannot afford to trade them away. Why give him up for a high paid player who is perpetually injured when we already have a ton of money committed to position players for the next 4-5 years? Tulo is great when he's playing but given our current roster and Bogaerts' potential I'd pass.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2015 1:13:45 GMT -5
Bump
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Post by m1keyboots on Jun 20, 2015 1:22:58 GMT -5
eye test say slightly above average. Metrics agree depending on the metric. The jump to average alone is thrilling to see
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,417
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Post by ianrs on Jun 20, 2015 2:19:12 GMT -5
Remember when the Red Sox signed Stephen Drew and moved Xander to 3B? That was June 2014.
Oh how time flies.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 20, 2015 5:54:13 GMT -5
No he's not a butcher, but he is a statue. How many plays did Xander make in 2014 where he went into the hole onto the OF grass and threw out a runner at 1B? Zero. Nada. None. Never. Soha. He is a mediocre athlete, and *that* has nothing to do with being 2 1.A lot of gold in this thread, but considering last night, this one has to be the best, right?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 20, 2015 6:04:44 GMT -5
Xanders future is at Fist Base. But for this year he is a SS. I like this one as well.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 20, 2015 6:06:56 GMT -5
Ha Ha. Xander Bogaerts - the slow, noodle-armed tremendous athlete. You guys need professional help This ones good too.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 20, 2015 6:26:43 GMT -5
With a caveat for mid-season defensive stats, Bogaerts currently tied for fourth in baseball among qualified shortstops in defensive fWAR. Could he actually end up a plus defensive shortstop?
Ever since he got to MLB, I've argued that he'd be fine at SS (although my only contribution to this thread was a snarky point about NYY winning with Jeter), but he's improved more and faster than I thought, for sure.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 20, 2015 7:56:48 GMT -5
The arm has been the most impressive. He's been working on the jump throw, it seems, and now he's executing it. Cain is no slouch and he nailed him. That was really an eye opener. He's also getting good at the barehanded pickup and throw. He's fine exactly where he is. Time to stow the silly hyperbole.
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