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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 8, 2014 10:12:43 GMT -5
Lot's of Nationals players seem to be on the block. There are some targets that might make sense for the Red Sox, Zimmerman, Fister, Clippard. Lot's of speculation that Nats will dump salary then sign Scherzer. I'd love to discuss any of the Nat's players in a trade, but unfortunately against my own will, I have to start this thread off with one of those "in theory trades" that will never happen.
So here it goes, assuming the Nats want to move payroll to sign Scherzer, and get some infield depth I propose.
Zimmerman Clippard Harper
For
Betts Cespedes Their pick of Owens or Rodriguez Their pick of another pitching prospect not Owens or Rodriguez.
So let's get the obvious out of the way, no way Nats are trading Harper. Cespedes cannot replace him in terms of power, OBP, defense (I think), salary, or team control. What he is, is a solid placeholder for a year. The real prize they would get is Mookie Betts as their starting 2B for 6 years. Once again, not as valuable as Harper, but he will have more team control and play at a position of need and scarcity. Owens should be ready for 2016 and they get another lottery ticket who could pitch out of the bullpen or possibly the rotation. Assuming they get Scherzer, who would give more value than Zimmerman and Clippard, and Cespedes and Betts, who combined should at least = Harper's production, while also getting some valuable pitching depth, you could make an argument this trade makes sense. For us, we get our #2, 7th inning man, 1, possibly 2 draft picks or extensions, and our long time right fielder. Sign Lester and a backup catcher and we are set up to win the AL East this year and into the future. Obviously the trade is amendable and both teams have other options they could include that could make sense.
Popped into my head, had to share it. Thoughts?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2014 10:22:37 GMT -5
Oh geez, you included Harper. What if we need to include Ted Williams' frozen head?
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 8, 2014 10:58:54 GMT -5
I expected reactions like this
Let's try to break this down another way. I may be wrong with my assumptions but I will at least spell them out.
Clippard at 9M per year and 1 year of control might be at negative value without salary relief. Zimmerman is a real valuable piece, but with only 1 year of control left. Again I am working under the assumption that Nats want to get value back for these guys and then sign Scherzer. For those two combined, I think their pick of their favorite pitching prospect we have is conservatively fair (Owens or Rodriguez). Personally I wouldn't trade Owens for these two guys straight up.
Now Harper is the most valuable piece of this trade, hands down, but Betts isn't a slouch. Betts would have a real shot of being a top 5 2B in the league next year if he played the position every day. Nats also have an obvious hole at 2B where we do not. And it's not saying Betts for Harper straight up, Cespedes on 1 year deal has value and their 3rd favorite pitching prospect also does. Let's look at it like this.
If Betts is a 2 War player (Steamers has his at 2.5) and Cespedes is a 2 War player (Steamers has him at 2.7) and the pitcher is a .5 War player Harper would have to outplay his steamers project (4 War) or his best year (4.4 War in 2012) to be as valuable.
There are other ways to tweak this trade also. What if we swapped Kelley or DLR with Fister, what if the Nats wanted Craig or the players the Marlins/Brewers would give for him, what if the Nats like JBJ, Cecchinni, Middlebrooks, or Marrero. Their are other ways to make this make sense.
I know this trade is unrealistic, as Harper is probably untouchable (as Mookie is also close too), but I don't think it is an inherently unfair trade (or can be adjusted to be more fair). Certainty in relation to other trades I have heard here I would say it is more fair.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2014 14:18:50 GMT -5
This proposal is just too big and unrealistic.
That being said, why not kick tires on Harper? Probably not open to trade him, but now is the best time to ask as he's only going to improve and has butted heads with people there.
Mookie + Swihart + Buchholz + Ball may sound like a ton, but this is one guy I think is worth it. I wouldn't be surprised if he's on par with Trout in a couple of years. I love Mookie and Swihart. They could be about an 8 WAR tandem. But Harper is a "once in a generation talent" that people dream on. His power is incredibly easy and I think he'll end up matching Trout in production. With modest, but real, concerns about both makeup and a future contract, the Nationals could play it safe and cash in on him. It probably would allow them to lock up all three of Zimmermann, Strasburg, and eventually Rendon.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2014 14:25:24 GMT -5
Back to reality:
Zimmermann + Barrett for Cespedes + Guerra + Holt
Guerra may only improve in worth, but he's also gotten sneaky amount of hype. I think Holt would be of use to them considering his versatility, and I'm more of a fan of Marrero and Coyle who both could take Holt's role in due time.
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Nationals
Dec 8, 2014 14:29:19 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Dec 8, 2014 14:29:19 GMT -5
If the Nationals sign sherzer that would be a tremendous addition for them and barring injuries just about guarantee them he nl east.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 8, 2014 15:59:46 GMT -5
Back to reality: Zimmermann + Barrett for Cespedes + Guerra + Holt Guerra may only improve in worth, but he's also gotten sneaky amount of hype. I think Holt would be of use to them considering his versatility, and I'm more of a fan of Marrero and Coyle who both could take Holt's role in due time. Reason why I suggested Harper is because the Nats already have 3 outfielders, with Harper, Werth, and Span, so Cespedes doesn't hold a ton of value for them unless they move one of them. Who I do think would hold value is Betts, who would not be moved for Werth or Span. That is where my idea of swapping Betts and Harper really came from. Anyways, I think Zimmerman is a step up from the Porcello, Iwakuma, Kennedy that Cespedes has been typically related too. Holt and Guerra really are not the players who would sway that trade, even if the Nats had the need and they didn't include Barrett.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 8, 2014 16:49:49 GMT -5
If the Nationals sign sherzer that would be a tremendous addition for them and barring injuries just about guarantee them he nl east. SCHERZER
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2014 16:51:55 GMT -5
If the Nationals sign sherzer that would be a tremendous addition for them and barring injuries just about guarantee them he nl east. SCHERZER Yeah, I almost think we're being trolled after the 100th time he spelled it that way.
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Nationals
Dec 8, 2014 21:36:49 GMT -5
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Post by cambos174 on Dec 8, 2014 21:36:49 GMT -5
I could see a three team that involves the Nats, Sox, and a team like the M's if they lose out on Melky.
Something like Vic & cash to the m's (2 mil) Clippard to the Sox with cash (2 mil from the Nats) And a prospect (of the Ranaudo-level) from the M's to the Nats.
Nats free up a few bucks to spend on extending Zimermann and pick up a decent prospect.
Clippard would be a great add to the pen for the sox. giving up on Vic may be selling low, but this scenario would save 4 mil and sure up the pen, and Vic is redundant at this point and I don't want him taking ABs from Mookie.
Now if the Sox could replace Vic with Craig, I'd do that too, I just don't see Craig having any value at this time.
Cespedes still would be able to return a decent starter (Leake, Porcello, etc.) and then you'd be a #1 starter away from being in the mix for the playoff hunt.
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Post by ctfisher on Dec 9, 2014 11:17:40 GMT -5
Given the return the A's took for Samardzija, I think we should aggressively pursue (Jordan) Zimmermann. Maybe Cespedes doesn't match up well with them, but Ian Desmond turned down an extension offer of more than $100mil over 7 years, they could be interested in Marrero. Add Brian Johnson, or maybe even Owens if they insist, and maybe a decent major league player like Brock Holt, and that's a good starting point. I know the A's are in a slightly different situation because they're so strapped for cash, but I'd say Marrero, Johnson, and Holt is relatively fair for both sides, and the Nats are going to need financial flexibility cause of all the young star power they have (Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, maybe Desmond)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 9, 2014 14:50:19 GMT -5
Given the return the A's took for Samardzija, I think we should aggressively pursue (Jordan) Zimmermann. Maybe Cespedes doesn't match up well with them, but Ian Desmond turned down an extension offer of more than $100mil over 7 years, they could be interested in Marrero. Add Brian Johnson, or maybe even Owens if they insist, and maybe a decent major league player like Brock Holt, and that's a good starting point. I know the A's are in a slightly different situation because they're so strapped for cash, but I'd say Marrero, Johnson, and Holt is relatively fair for both sides, and the Nats are going to need financial flexibility cause of all the young star power they have (Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, maybe Desmond) I'd actually rather pursue Strasburg, even though he will easily be more expensive. If the Nationals trade Strasburg, they'll be able to lock up Zimmermann and Desmond. I wouldn't give up Mookie for Strasburg though, which could cause a divide.
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Post by ctfisher on Dec 10, 2014 0:44:00 GMT -5
Well ideally yea, but they're not likely to bite on that, and we don't match up as well without including Mookie- if they keep Desmond, they have no use for Xander, and unless we throw a massive offer at them in terms of quantity (which they probably wouldn't take) I don't see how we'd pull it off. Unless a third team gets involved. Still, looking at the way teams seem to be valuing pitchers with a year left on their deals, we should really make an effort for either Fister or Zimmermann, just because the value there is going to be much better than we could get in free agency in all likelihood
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 10, 2014 11:02:03 GMT -5
I think Gio Gonzalez should be the target 2015 29yrs $11,000,000 2016 30yrs $12,000,000 2017 31yrs *$12,000,000 $12M Team Option, $500k Buyout 2018 32yrs *$12,000,000 $12M Vesting Option becomes guaranteed with 180 innings in 2017 Some kind of package built around Holt, De La Rosa & Marrero (I seriously doubt these 3 alone are enough) read this article: districtondeck.com/2014/12/05/gio-gonzalez-national-league-ranking-2/I'd actually rather go after Strasburg but he would be more expensive.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 9:17:20 GMT -5
All signs are that Zimmemann wants his FA payday. There have therefore been persistent reports that the Nats are interested in signing Scherzer and dealing him (or Fister).
So, Kelly and Marrero for Zimmermann. A paid-for-and-developed Marrero easily trumps the pick they'd get for Zimmerman, and can take over for Desmond in a year. For one year of Zimmerman, they get three years of Kelly, and Zimmerman isn't three times as good, even when you factor in high-WAR player scarcity.
They have no one at all to play 2B, so they can deal Fister to fill that hole.
Scherzer and Kelly match Zimmermann and Fister. They've picked up some cost-controlled rotation years, too. And filled SS and 2B.
Obviously, we have other trade chips if that's not enough (which might be the case if there were other teams that wanted him and matched up as well), beginning with Ranaudo.
From our POV, we've upgraded our 2015 walk-year pitcher from Lackey to Zimmermann (adding some bucks) and dealt a blocked Marrero for Craig as an offset. Lackey's no guarantee at his age to earn a QO, while Zimmermann's pretty much a sure bet.
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Post by greenmonstah on Dec 14, 2014 11:27:23 GMT -5
People need to get over the fact that the Nats aren't trading Bryce Harper, especially for a return like that.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2014 11:31:41 GMT -5
All signs are that Zimmemann wants his FA payday. There have therefore been persistent reports that the Nats are interested in signing Scherzer and dealing him (or Fister). So, Kelly and Marrero for Zimmermann. A paid-for-and-developed Marrero easily trumps the pick they'd get for Zimmerman, and can take over for Desmond in a year. For one year of Zimmerman, they get three years of Kelly, and Zimmerman isn't three times as good, even when you factor in high-WAR player scarcity. They have no one at all to play 2B, so they can deal Fister to fill that hole. Scherzer and Kelly match Zimmermann and Fister. They've picked up some cost-controlled rotation years, too. And filled SS and 2B. Obviously, we have other trade chips if that's not enough (which might be the case if there were other teams that wanted him and matched up as well), beginning with Ranaudo. From our POV, we've upgraded our 2015 walk-year pitcher from Lackey to Zimmermann (adding some bucks) and dealt a blocked Marrero for Craig as an offset. Lackey's no guarantee at his age to earn a QO, while Zimmermann's pretty much a sure bet. Seeing as the Nationals are looking to 'win now', I can't imagine any trade of Zimmerman in which they don't bring back major league pieces (if the Red Sox had Zimmerman, would you be happy with that downgrade to Kelly if all they got was Marrero?). Unless Betts is part of the trade, I just don't see a fit. Now if the Nationals are really unhappy with Harper then perhaps the trade could be expanded (Betts at 2B, Victorino/Craig in the OF, Kelly SP + B prospect for Zim/Harper) but there would be so much going on that it's really just dreamcasting at this point and would only be conceivable with many assumptions being correct (Wanting to trade Harper/Zim, REALLY liking Mookie, etc.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 16, 2014 3:59:57 GMT -5
All signs are that Zimmemann wants his FA payday. There have therefore been persistent reports that the Nats are interested in signing Scherzer and dealing him (or Fister). So, Kelly and Marrero for Zimmermann. A paid-for-and-developed Marrero easily trumps the pick they'd get for Zimmerman, and can take over for Desmond in a year. For one year of Zimmerman, they get three years of Kelly, and Zimmerman isn't three times as good, even when you factor in high-WAR player scarcity. They have no one at all to play 2B, so they can deal Fister to fill that hole. Scherzer and Kelly match Zimmermann and Fister. They've picked up some cost-controlled rotation years, too. And filled SS and 2B. Obviously, we have other trade chips if that's not enough (which might be the case if there were other teams that wanted him and matched up as well), beginning with Ranaudo. From our POV, we've upgraded our 2015 walk-year pitcher from Lackey to Zimmermann (adding some bucks) and dealt a blocked Marrero for Craig as an offset. Lackey's no guarantee at his age to earn a QO, while Zimmermann's pretty much a sure bet. Seeing as the Nationals are looking to 'win now', I can't imagine any trade of Zimmerman in which they don't bring back major league pieces (if the Red Sox had Zimmerman, would you be happy with that downgrade to Kelly if all they got was Marrero?). Unless Betts is part of the trade, I just don't see a fit. Now if the Nationals are really unhappy with Harper then perhaps the trade could be expanded (Betts at 2B, Victorino/Craig in the OF, Kelly SP + B prospect for Zim/Harper) but there would be so much going on that it's really just dreamcasting at this point and would only be conceivable with many assumptions being correct (Wanting to trade Harper/Zim, REALLY liking Mookie, etc.) I don't think Scherzer is going to be worth what he's going to get on the FA market, but reports are that the Nats do. So I'll answer your question from the assumption that Scherzer is worth his deal. And the obvious answer is that I'd be delighted if I were a Nats fan and my team signed Scherzer and traded Zimmerman for Kelly and Marrero. Given a choice between signing Scherzer and Zimmermann to a long-term contract, Schezer's clearly the better pitcher. That's an upgrade now and in the future. I lose a pick for signing Scherzer and the pick I would get if I let Zimmermann walk a year from now, but I get three years of Kelly and 6 years of Marrero and a pick for letting Ian Desmond walk a year from now. And Scherzer will cost less than Zimmermann and Desmond combined will. For one year of Jordan Zimmermann to fetch six of Mookie Betts, he'd have to be six times as good. Do you think that's true? Zimmermann was worth 4.9 bWAR last year, but after adjusting for league imbalance it's more like 4.7 or 4.6. Steamer projects Betts as 4.2 (per 150 games).
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Post by kmann on Dec 16, 2014 14:22:46 GMT -5
What is the perceived value on Marrero? I have never seen him play, but have just read about how great defensively he is. I know he hit well in the Fall league this year, but he seems to be a bottom of the order SS. Is he a better prospect than Iglesias was? I ask only because the value placed on him on these discussion boards seems to be greater than the value I have placed on him. I find it hard to believe a Kelly/Marrero can get a Zimmerman.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 16, 2014 14:39:56 GMT -5
Kelly/Marrero for 1 year of Zimmermann would be an overpay
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 16, 2014 14:44:52 GMT -5
Wasn't there talk that the Nationals were kicking the tires on a trade that would "blow the building down"?
Wow....nothing happened.
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nomar
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Dec 16, 2014 14:45:34 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Dec 16, 2014 14:45:34 GMT -5
I think 5 years of Kelly and even more of someone with a Brendan Ryan floor is a justifiable package for one year of a glorified #2 starter who is likely to regress a bit in K/9 this year.
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Post by kmann on Dec 16, 2014 15:29:33 GMT -5
I think 5 years of Kelly and even more of someone with a Brendan Ryan floor is a justifiable package for one year of a glorified #2 starter who is likely to regress a bit in K/9 this year. I thought it was 4 years of Kelly (not 5)? Anyway, just to play devils advocate here, because again I have never seen Marrerro play and am not sure of his value, but if Marrerro is projected to be an above average SS, why would the Sox sign Kung Fu Panda for $95M when they could have moved X to 3B and slotted Marrerro in at SS? Could it be that Marrerro is projected to be a light hitting bottom of the order SS and even taking into account his defense he might be a below-average SS? I know years of control is valuable, but is it only truly valuable if you are an above replacemnet player?
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nomar
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Dec 16, 2014 15:34:13 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Dec 16, 2014 15:34:13 GMT -5
I think 4 years of Kelly and even more of someone with a Brendan Ryan floor is a justifiable package for one year of a glorified #2 starter who is likely to regress a bit in K/9 this year. I thought it was 4 years of Kelly (not 5)? Anyway, just to play devils advocate here, because again I have never seen Marrerro play and am not sure of his value, but if Marrerro is projected to be an above average SS, why would the Sox sign Kung Fu Panda for $95M when they could have moved X to 3B and slotted Marrerro in at SS? Could it be that Marrerro is projected to be a light hitting bottom of the order SS and even taking into account his defense he might be a below-average SS? I know years of control is valuable, but is it only truly valuable if you are an above replacemnet player? I don't see him as more than a utility player in Boston personally, but his type is more valuable in the NL and considering that he would likely be able to play any position he's asked to, having a ton of control over Marrero is still an attractive idea even if he doesn't end up being a 162 game starter. Let me put it this way - If Marrero was a sure fire starting MLB SS, he and Kelly would be worth more than one year of Jordan Zimmermann.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 16, 2014 16:21:09 GMT -5
I don't think Scherzer is going to be worth what he's going to get on the FA market, but reports are that the Nats do. So I'll answer your question from the assumption that Scherzer is worth his deal. And the obvious answer is that I'd be delighted if I were a Nats fan and my team signed Scherzer and traded Zimmerman for Kelly and Marrero. Given a choice between signing Scherzer and Zimmermann to a long-term contract, Schezer's clearly the better pitcher. That's an upgrade now and in the future. I lose a pick for signing Scherzer and the pick I would get if I let Zimmermann walk a year from now, but I get three years of Kelly and 6 years of Marrero and a pick for letting Ian Desmond walk a year from now. And Scherzer will cost less than Zimmermann and Desmond combined will. For one year of Jordan Zimmermann to fetch six of Mookie Betts, he'd have to be six times as good. Do you think that's true? Zimmermann was worth 4.9 bWAR last year, but after adjusting for league imbalance it's more like 4.7 or 4.6. Steamer projects Betts as 4.2 (per 150 games). I agree with Steamer's individual evaluations of Zimmerman and Betts should come close, but the move to the OF will reduce his value greatly. Maybe it's a 3.5 WAR vs a 4.5 WAR difference. However I would not trade Betts to Washington unless Harper was coming back - which is what I had stated. As there may still be some bad blood and injury concerns with Harper, perhaps the Nationals will listen when broached on the subject. (would consider this for Strasburg as well) Also - don't forget about the pick the Red Sox would be getting for Zimmerman and/or the value you get from resigning a player vs signing a free agent (if he likes Boston it becomes more likely he will return). If trading Zimmerman gave the Nationals ALL the money they would need for Scherzer, then I would be with you but even at the $16.5 mil price tag they are 'likely' about 10 mil away still. But hey, if you could convince the Nationals to take Marrero and Kelly then I'd be for it. Kelly in all of these trade scenarios perplexes me because I don't feel I have a firm grasp on what his trade value is. It doesn't seem huge, but the Red Sox apparently targeted him with the Lackey trade so I assume they value him highly. If you asked me 'would you trade Owens/Marrero for Zimmerman' I would think about it but say 'no'. But is Owens worth much more than Kelly?
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