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Wade Miley
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 17:27:19 GMT -5
This is the same mistake everyone made two offseasons ago-- assuming that not getting an All-Star meant not improving at all. Going from replacement-level to average is still an improvement, and having five average starters in your rotation and plus depth in Pawtucket is not ideal but should be enough to get the team into playoff contention. I have mixed feelings about this. Yes I realize that there is not one magic way to construct a team, and that the Orioles just had a very successful year despite a rotation full of #3 types. That said, we do know that aces can put you on your back in the playoffs and we've seen numerous cases of this happening. I think having an ace in a 7 game series is more valuable then that middle of the order, all-start bat. Regardless, I'm quite aware that any upgrade over Webster or Ranaudo at this point is an upgrade in general. Granted, I'll never fully know what kinds of discussions are going on behind the scenes, but I'd prefer a serious effort to obtain a Zimmermann or a Cueto, before settling for a Miley or a Masterson. I think you hit it on the head-- they're almost certainly trying to get better pitchers behind the scenes, but if, in the meantime, they think Miley is an upgrade at a fair price, there's no reason to wait on other transactions that may or may not ever happen.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2014 17:39:56 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... I hear you. Kind of reminds me how I felt when the Sox lost Bruce Hurst but picked up John Dopson. Dopson was OK, but he was no Hurst. Got a serviceable (least at the beginning) pitcher, which is an upgrade to mediocrity, but lost out on the opportunity for something much better.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2014 17:43:28 GMT -5
Only to the degree that it feels like we're adding another backend starter to a team in desperate need of an ace or at the least, a 2/3 guy. This is the same mistake everyone made two offseasons ago-- assuming that not getting an All-Star meant not improving at all. Going from replacement-level to average is still an improvement, and having five average starters in your rotation and plus depth in Pawtucket is not ideal but should be enough to get the team into playoff contention. I think there's a big difference. Napoli, Victorino and Uehara were proven players and had WARS of 1.4, 2.3 and 1.4 the season before. Which was below their career norms. Miley had a WAR of .8 last year, hardly above replacement level in the NL with a 1.4 WHIP and a 4.34 ERA. What are his numbers going to look like in the AL east? Arizona is going to trade him because he makes 3 -4 million, wow. That tells me they see him as a 4-5 starter and think 2012 was a fluke/career year. Rubby De La Rosa had a WAR of .4 last year in 18 starts and that is with him fading towards the end of the year. Joe Kelly had a WAR of .3 in 10 starts. De La Rosa and Kelley did this in the AL east, not the NL. We have two good young starters for our 4-5 spots in our rotation and a crab load of young arms if they fail. If you assume Clay is your #3, I wouldn't, but seems to be were the Sox are headed, we need pitchers that are better then 4/5 starters. Miley doesn't help us address the front of our rotation, at best he takes Clays spot and becomes our #3. That still means we need two more pitchers.
Sure he improves the rotation today, because he replaces Webster and/or Workman, but if he is one of our two pitchers we bring in this year, I think we are in trouble. Don't get me wrong, if you can get him cheap, I'd take the gamble, just not at the expense of getting two better more proven pitchers.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 17:52:41 GMT -5
This is the same mistake everyone made two offseasons ago-- assuming that not getting an All-Star meant not improving at all. Going from replacement-level to average is still an improvement, and having five average starters in your rotation and plus depth in Pawtucket is not ideal but should be enough to get the team into playoff contention. I think there's a big difference. Napoli, Victorino and Uehara were proven players and had WARS of 1.4, 2.3 and 1.4 the season before. Which was below their career norms. Miley had a WAR of .8 last year, hardly above replacement level in the NL with a 1.4 WHIP and a 4.34 ERA. What are his numbers going to look like in the AL east? Arizona is going to trade him because he makes 3 -4 million, wow. That tells me they see him as a 4-5 starter and think 2012 was a fluke/career year. Rubby De La Rosa had a WAR of .4 last year in 18 starts and that is with him fading towards the end of the year. Joe Kelly had a WAR of .3 in 10 starts. De La Rosa and Kelley did this in the AL east, not the NL. We have two good young starters for our 4-5 spots in our rotation and a crab load of young arms if they fail. If you assume Clay is your #3, I wouldn't, but seems to be were the Sox are headed, we need pitchers that are better then 4/5 starters. Miley doesn't help us address the front of our rotation, at best he takes Clays spot and becomes our #3. That still means we need two more pitchers.
Sure he improves the rotation today, because he replaces Webster and/or Workman, but if he is one of our two pitchers we bring in this year, I think we are in trouble. Don't get me wrong, if you can get him cheap, I'd take the gamble, just not at the expense of getting two better more proven pitchers. Miley had a 3.98 FIP, a 3.50 xFIP, and a 3.67 SIERA last year, the last two of which are well above league average and are more predictive of his 2015 performance than his ERA. Over his career, Miley has averaged 2.5 fWAR per 200 IP (though just 1.8 bWAR, largely because B-R subtracts some value for playing in front of what they think is an elite Arizona defense), and Steamer projects him to put up 2.4 wins next year. I think his median projection is clearly better than that of Kelly and De La Rosa and he's much less risky than Buchholz, and he's a significant improvement over the likes of Webster or Workman or Ranaudo. By the way, both WAR variants are already adjusted for park/league, which means you should not mentally adjust them again.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2014 18:22:45 GMT -5
I think there's a big difference. Napoli, Victorino and Uehara were proven players and had WARS of 1.4, 2.3 and 1.4 the season before. Which was below their career norms. Miley had a WAR of .8 last year, hardly above replacement level in the NL with a 1.4 WHIP and a 4.34 ERA. What are his numbers going to look like in the AL east? Arizona is going to trade him because he makes 3 -4 million, wow. That tells me they see him as a 4-5 starter and think 2012 was a fluke/career year. Rubby De La Rosa had a WAR of .4 last year in 18 starts and that is with him fading towards the end of the year. Joe Kelly had a WAR of .3 in 10 starts. De La Rosa and Kelley did this in the AL east, not the NL. We have two good young starters for our 4-5 spots in our rotation and a crab load of young arms if they fail. If you assume Clay is your #3, I wouldn't, but seems to be were the Sox are headed, we need pitchers that are better then 4/5 starters. Miley doesn't help us address the front of our rotation, at best he takes Clays spot and becomes our #3. That still means we need two more pitchers.
Sure he improves the rotation today, because he replaces Webster and/or Workman, but if he is one of our two pitchers we bring in this year, I think we are in trouble. Don't get me wrong, if you can get him cheap, I'd take the gamble, just not at the expense of getting two better more proven pitchers. Miley had a 3.98 FIP, a 3.50 xFIP, and a 3.67 SIERA last year, the last two of which are well above league average and are more predictive of his 2015 performance than his ERA. Over his career, Miley has averaged 2.5 fWAR per 200 IP (though just 1.8 bWAR, largely because B-R subtracts some value for playing in front of what they think is an elite Arizona defense), and Steamer projects him to put up 2.4 wins next year. I think his median projection is clearly better than that of Kelly and De La Rosa and he's much less risky than Buchholz, and he's a significant improvement over the likes of Webster or Workman or Ranaudo. By the way, both WAR variants are already adjusted for park/league, which means you should not mentally adjust them again. I'm not an advance stat guy, have never got into FIP, xFIP and SIERA. What I do know is that his 1.8 WAR average over that last three years takes into account his good 2012 season in which he had a WAR of 3.3. The last two years his WAR is 1.3 and .8. Was 2012 a fluke? Lets says he has a 1.3 WAR next year, then his three year average is 1.13. I love the idea of buying low and having Miley return to his 2012 form. I just don't think it will happen, not if Arizona is trading him because he'll make 3-4 million. That tells me Arizona thinks he's the pitcher we've seen in 2013 and 2014, not 2012.
I like that Steamer projection of 2.4 next year, just don't think it's right. Young players who's play varies wildly from year to year like Miley with a limited sample size are very hard to project. I know a lot of people on this board keep pointing to the poor defense behind Miley as a reason he had a poor 2013 and 2014 compared to 2012. What worries me is that his homeruns in 2012 were 14, 21 in 2013 and 23 in 2014. Those homerun increase have nothing to do with D, he's getting hit harder.
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Post by izzy on Dec 10, 2014 21:35:15 GMT -5
Umassgrad2005, I'm assuming you were using Baseball Reference's version of WAR. It should be noted that Fangraphs has Wade Miley averaging 2.67 WAR over the past three years. This is mainly because Fangraphs uses FIP and Baseball Reference uses runs allowed.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 21:41:04 GMT -5
Miley had a 3.98 FIP, a 3.50 xFIP, and a 3.67 SIERA last year, the last two of which are well above league average and are more predictive of his 2015 performance than his ERA. Over his career, Miley has averaged 2.5 fWAR per 200 IP (though just 1.8 bWAR, largely because B-R subtracts some value for playing in front of what they think is an elite Arizona defense), and Steamer projects him to put up 2.4 wins next year. I think his median projection is clearly better than that of Kelly and De La Rosa and he's much less risky than Buchholz, and he's a significant improvement over the likes of Webster or Workman or Ranaudo. By the way, both WAR variants are already adjusted for park/league, which means you should not mentally adjust them again. I'm not an advance stat guy, have never got into FIP, xFIP and SIERA. What I do know is that his 1.8 WAR average over that last three years takes into account his good 2012 season in which he had a WAR of 3.3. The last two years his WAR is 1.3 and .8. Was 2012 a fluke? Lets says he has a 1.3 WAR next year, then his three year average is 1.13. I love the idea of buying low and having Miley return to his 2012 form. I just don't think it will happen, not if Arizona is trading him because he'll make 3-4 million. That tells me Arizona thinks he's the pitcher we've seen in 2013 and 2014, not 2012.
I like that Steamer projection of 2.4 next year, just don't think it's right. Young players who's play varies wildly from year to year like Miley with a limited sample size are very hard to project. I know a lot of people on this board keep pointing to the poor defense behind Miley as a reason he had a poor 2013 and 2014 compared to 2012. What worries me is that his homeruns in 2012 were 14, 21 in 2013 and 23 in 2014. Those homerun increase have nothing to do with D, he's getting hit harder.
A bad way to analyze a player: ignore his best season.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 21:52:27 GMT -5
And there it is. Webster and de la rosa.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 21:53:02 GMT -5
#RedSox have agreement in principle for #DBacks’ Miley, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. AZ will get Webster, De La Rosa and a minor leaguer.
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Post by kmann on Dec 10, 2014 22:00:32 GMT -5
Over the last several years I have waited anxiously for our large crop of young pitchers to reach the majors (Webster, RDL, Barnes, Workman, Renaudo, and Steven Wright too) and another crop of pitchers right behind them (Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez). The Miley rumors just make me think of what a major disappointment this first crop of pitchers have been. I just named 9 pitchers and we are looking to add another trade chip? I know a couple of these guys will probably be traded in a package and a couple of others will get a shot in the pen, but the fact we are looking at Miley, and not to mention our offer to Masterson, tells me that many of these guys have very little value and the FO does not believe in them. That's disappointing. Hopefully Owens, Johnson and/or Rodriguez become more serviceable.
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