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Wade Miley
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 10, 2014 1:10:36 GMT -5
“@ken_Rosenthal: #RedSox, #Marlins among teams in active discussions with #DBacks on Wade Miley, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.”
“@ken_Rosenthal: The offers #DBacks are getting for Miley are substantial enough that possibility of a deal has increased, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.”
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 7:29:05 GMT -5
I can't even guess on what it takes to trade for anyone anymore, but this guy is one I have even less of a clue. I assume he'd be expensive because of 3 years of control.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 10, 2014 7:46:59 GMT -5
With only a cursory glance, I feel I could get on board with one of Owens/Erod plus.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 10, 2014 8:12:50 GMT -5
He's already 28, and has put up a career 103 ERA+. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top ten for him, and seriously doubt I'd go anywhere in the top 15. He's a back of the rotation starter - we already have plenty of those.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 8:20:50 GMT -5
He's already 28, and has put up a career 103 ERA+. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top ten for him, and seriously doubt I'd go anywhere in the top 15. He's a back of the rotation starter - we already have plenty of those. And most of the bad stats are due to bad BABIP luck last year, probably due to a terrible defense behind him. The only concern is the walk rate creeping up, but the supreme ground ball rates make that not a huge deal.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 8:55:50 GMT -5
Last year's strikeout rate looks flukey, though-- even in the minors, he's never been the 20%+ strikeout guy he was in 2014. If that regresses, he's a league-averagish starter, which is valuable but not that valuable.
Something else to note about Miley: he's a lefty who throws almost exclusively a fastball and a slider, so he has big platoon splits. Not necessarily the kind of guy best suited for Fenway Park.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2014 9:08:48 GMT -5
I wouldn't call his splits huge. They are there, but he's still getting a lot of ground balls to RHB. Looks like he gets a lot of ground balls on two-seam fastballs, which probably somewhat resembles a sinker. That is the pitch he throws most.
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nomar
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Wade Miley
Dec 10, 2014 11:54:10 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Dec 10, 2014 11:54:10 GMT -5
Last year's strikeout rate looks flukey, though-- even in the minors, he's never been the 20%+ strikeout guy he was in 2014. If that regresses, he's a league-averagish starter, which is valuable but not that valuable. Something else to note about Miley: he's a lefty who throws almost exclusively a fastball and a slider, so he has big platoon splits. Not necessarily the kind of guy best suited for Fenway Park. Fenway actually cuts HRs to RHB which is a big problem for him. I agree that his K/9 will drop down to around 7, especially if he starts pounding the zone more. Judging by his increased K and BB rates he may be nibbling more. He's an above average starter though. xFIP and SIERA like him. If the price is right I'd take 3 years of him for sure, especially considering they'll be his age 28-30 seasons.
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Wade Miley
Dec 10, 2014 15:04:35 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Dec 10, 2014 15:04:35 GMT -5
Last year's strikeout rate looks flukey, though-- even in the minors, he's never been the 20%+ strikeout guy he was in 2014. If that regresses, he's a league-averagish starter, which is valuable but not that valuable. Something else to note about Miley: he's a lefty who throws almost exclusively a fastball and a slider, so he has big platoon splits. Not necessarily the kind of guy best suited for Fenway Park. Fenway actually cuts HRs to RHB which is a big problem for him. I agree that his K/9 will drop down to around 7, especially if he starts pounding the zone more. Judging by his increased K and BB rates he may be nibbling more. He's an above average starter though. xFIP and SIERA like him. If the price is right I'd take 3 years of him for sure, especially considering they'll be his age 28-30 seasons. Could the leaky infield defense in Arizona last season be one of the factors in why Miley started nibbling? That defense outside of short was really bad. I think as a team they ranked 28th defensively. That has to mess with a pitcher's head a bit.
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nomar
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Wade Miley
Dec 10, 2014 15:37:33 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Dec 10, 2014 15:37:33 GMT -5
Fenway actually cuts HRs to RHB which is a big problem for him. I agree that his K/9 will drop down to around 7, especially if he starts pounding the zone more. Judging by his increased K and BB rates he may be nibbling more. He's an above average starter though. xFIP and SIERA like him. If the price is right I'd take 3 years of him for sure, especially considering they'll be his age 28-30 seasons. Could the leaky infield defense in Arizona last season be one of the factors in why Miley started nibbling? That defense outside of short was really bad. I think as a team they ranked 28th defensively. That has to mess with a pitcher's head a bit. Yeah perhaps. I don't have a clue about how much pitchers usually worry about there defense being a liability, but sounds feasible. I'm sure some guys worry more than others.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2014 16:02:42 GMT -5
With only a cursory glance, I feel I could get on board with one of Owens/Erod plus. That makes no sense. Miley was good in 2012 1.18 WHIP, 3.33 ERA, 2013 1.32WHIP and 3.55ERA, 2014 1.4 WHIP and 4.34ERA not very good in 2013 and 2014. Those were his age 25, 26 and 27 seasons. So you would get his 28, 29 and 30th seasons, which is good. The bad looks like a 4-5 starter with the upside that he pitches like 2012 and becomes a solid 3. Heck maybe the light goes on and he becomes a # 2, I wouldn't bet on it though.
No way I trade Owens or Erod for him. I wouldn't trade Brian Johnson for him. I would trade players like Ranaudo, Workman, Webster or maybe Barnes. Then add a couple of lower level prospects to sweeten the deal.
Maybe a Ranaudo, Coyle, and one of Shaw, Wilson, Brentz, Ramirez, and/or Britton. I think that's a fair offer based on what other players are getting traded for. The question you have to ask is why are they looking to move him when his value is at an all time low? That scares me, sends up red flags. Would they gamble on a player like Allen Craig? A one for one trade would make sense for both teams.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 10, 2014 16:13:46 GMT -5
With only a cursory glance, I feel I could get on board with one of Owens/Erod plus. My guess is that it would look more like one pitcher from the next tier (RLDR, Webster, Johnson, Ranaudo, Barnes, Workman), plus a position player (Cecchini, Marrero, Ramos, Coyle, Brentz).
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 10, 2014 16:21:46 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 22s22 seconds ago Sources: #Marlins, #Rangers out on Miley. Process of elimination points to #RedSox unless another team is involved.
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Post by juniorp90 on Dec 10, 2014 16:25:14 GMT -5
He's already 28, and has put up a career 103 ERA+. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top ten for him, and seriously doubt I'd go anywhere in the top 15. He's a back of the rotation starter - we already have plenty of those. And most of the bad stats are due to bad BABIP luck last year, probably due to a terrible defense behind him. The only concern is the walk rate creeping up, but the supreme ground ball rates make that not a huge deal. The only way to understand this transfer, is if we use it as a reliever, we just Layne and Escobar in that situation !! And as you say, there are many on the team can fill the positions 4 and 5...
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 10, 2014 16:25:22 GMT -5
The question you have to ask is why are they looking to move him when his value is at an all time low? That's an easy one. ARI has to cut payroll and Miley is estimated to get $3.5-$4mm in arb1. For a back-end starter, ARI can be more cost-effective. BOS has the salary room and needs to upgrade its rotation.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 10, 2014 16:41:28 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal...
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 10, 2014 16:43:35 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... Why would an addition be a bad thing unless they completely overpaid?
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 10, 2014 16:46:05 GMT -5
Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi 5m5 minutes ago #RedSox and #DBacks are close to a deal that will send Wade Miley to Boston, source says.
Bob Nightengale ?@bnightengale 33s33 seconds ago The #Redsox currently are not involved in any trade discussions w #Dbacks for Wade Miley.
I think we now have all of our bases covered.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 10, 2014 16:48:02 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... Why would an addition be a bad thing unless they completely overpaid? Only to the degree that it feels like we're adding another backend starter to a team in desperate need of an ace or at the least, a 2/3 guy.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 10, 2014 16:49:03 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... They are not necessarily correlated. It's possible that the Red Sox were interested in Miley independently of whatever happened with Lester. The Red Sox need at least two starters, so the Red Sox could very well have traded for Miley even if they signed Lester. Therefore, I would not consider this a panic move, or even a reactionary one.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 10, 2014 16:49:50 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... Jared Carrabis ?@jared_Carrabis 3m3 minutes ago Why is everyone freaking out over Wade Miley rumors? Just because this is happening after Lester doesn't mean he's Plan B to Lester. Relax.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 16:58:39 GMT -5
Why would an addition be a bad thing unless they completely overpaid? Only to the degree that it feels like we're adding another backend starter to a team in desperate need of an ace or at the least, a 2/3 guy. This is the same mistake everyone made two offseasons ago-- assuming that not getting an All-Star meant not improving at all. Going from replacement-level to average is still an improvement, and having five average starters in your rotation and plus depth in Pawtucket is not ideal but should be enough to get the team into playoff contention.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2014 17:17:33 GMT -5
Now it appears it's all blown out of proportion anyways
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Post by ramireja on Dec 10, 2014 17:19:09 GMT -5
I'm not interpreting this as a panic move, but adding Wade Miley the same day as losing Jon Lester would be a sad day for sure. If this happens, I hope the return is minimal... They are not necessarily correlated. It's possible that the Red Sox were interested in Miley independently of whatever happened with Lester. The Red Sox need at least two starters, so the Red Sox could very well have traded for Miley even if they signed Lester. Therefore, I would not consider this a panic move, or even a reactionary one. The only claim I was trying to make was an emotional one, not a rational or logical one. Sorry if it was construed that way. I'm quite aware that Wade Miley is not the Red Sox answer to Jon Lester. I was merely pointing out that my emotional reaction on the day that we find out we will not sign one of my favorite all-time players and may potentially add a backend starter, was a sad one.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 10, 2014 17:24:13 GMT -5
Only to the degree that it feels like we're adding another backend starter to a team in desperate need of an ace or at the least, a 2/3 guy. This is the same mistake everyone made two offseasons ago-- assuming that not getting an All-Star meant not improving at all. Going from replacement-level to average is still an improvement, and having five average starters in your rotation and plus depth in Pawtucket is not ideal but should be enough to get the team into playoff contention. I have mixed feelings about this. Yes I realize that there is not one magic way to construct a team, and that the Orioles just had a very successful year despite a rotation full of #3 types. That said, we do know that aces can put you on your back in the playoffs and we've seen numerous cases of this happening. I think having an ace in a 7 game series is more valuable then that middle of the order, all-start bat. Regardless, I'm quite aware that any upgrade over Webster or Ranaudo at this point is an upgrade in general. Granted, I'll never fully know what kinds of discussions are going on behind the scenes, but I'd prefer a serious effort to obtain a Zimmermann or a Cueto, before settling for a Miley or a Masterson.
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