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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 12:28:47 GMT -5
Who/what would you flip?
I think Buchholz + Kelly in a Cueto deal makes sense. Gives Cincy 3 years of both and some upside as well.
I would like Zimmermann but Washington doesn't need depth right now at SP.
In Hamels case it makes more sense for Phillies to get prospects. They're not contending in the next 3 years.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 11, 2014 12:35:35 GMT -5
Who/what would you flip?I think Buchholz + Kelly in a Cueto deal makes sense. Gives Cincy 3 years of both and some upside as well. I would like Zimmermann but Washington doesn't need depth right now at SP. In Hamels case it makes more sense for Phillies to get prospects. They're not contending in the next 3 years. None Makes no sense for the Reds at all. The Reds are clearing space to sign Cueto long term. |
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Dec 11, 2014 12:40:49 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up.
I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 12:42:03 GMT -5
Who/what would you flip?I think Buchholz + Kelly in a Cueto deal makes sense. Gives Cincy 3 years of both and some upside as well. I would like Zimmermann but Washington doesn't need depth right now at SP. In Hamels case it makes more sense for Phillies to get prospects. They're not contending in the next 3 years. None Makes no sense for the Reds at all. The Reds are clearing space to sign Cueto long term. You have no way of knowing that. Trading Latos, who is a walking red flag, doesn't necessarily mean they're clearing room to extend a pitcher who may not even want to stay there. They could just be rebuilding. |
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 11, 2014 12:47:59 GMT -5
they just traded 2/5 of their rotation. they are not trading Cueto in my opinion
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 11, 2014 12:49:08 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto.[/b] I would. And I would LOVE it |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 12:51:23 GMT -5
We'll see. Not that Cueto is the only option out there anyway.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 11, 2014 13:48:02 GMT -5
Anyone worried about cueto's injury history?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 17:38:59 GMT -5
Anyone worried about cueto's injury history? No |
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Post by seanleary001 on Dec 11, 2014 18:04:45 GMT -5
We'll see. Not that Cueto is the only option out there anyway. What are the best options? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 18:19:20 GMT -5
We could just give Scherzer 7 years and 189 million. I know crazy money, but Lester got 6 and 155 and Scherzer is a lot better pitcher. Trade for Hamels or Zimmerman. Or just sign James Shields. We have a lot of options, not sure what the best one is. Depends on contract terms/ players we have to give up. Would love to be able to listen in on Ben and his conversation for pitchers. WOW that would be so awesome.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 11, 2014 21:00:49 GMT -5
The guy I'd look to flip is Buchholz. He is easily our most talented pitcher, but I think he's also our most enigmatic. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he pitched like a number 2 this year, or if he made three starts and pulled his neck muscle washing his car or something.
While at first blush I didn't like the idea of trading for Wade Miley, after reading some of the excellent posts on him, and looking into him a bit more, I just don't see any reasonable explanation as to why he shouldn't be considered a low tier number 2 / top tier number 3 pitcher. Porcello in my mind is on the cusp of becoming an excellent pitcher, and he's already pretty darn good, I'd call him a low tier number 1 or top tier number 2, depending on where people like to draw their arbitrary lines (I think a big part of the remainder of the off-season should be spent on extending him).
From Kelly, Masterson, and Buchholz, making a reasonable projection on what they're going to bring to the table is very difficult. I don't mind the idea of going with a full rotation of 2s and 3s, especially with what I think this offense will be capable of, but in that vein I don't think you can go with three relative unknowns. A move I'd like to see made is to trade Buchholz for the best prospect package possible (and I have no idea what that is) and take some of our prospects (not top tier guys) to acquire Jon Niese from the Mets.
He is a guy like Miley that in my opinion is a low tier 2 / top tier 3 pitcher, and should not be cost prohibitive if we take on his full salary. We would then have three guys who you can quite likely pencil in for quality innings without really giving up much in the way of our best assets.
Following that, if the ability to get a top tier starter (Zimmermann, Hamels, maybe a reasonably priced Shields) presents itself, we can easily make that move. If not, we have a very solid rotation of 2s and 3s with Porcello, Niese, Miley, Kelly and Masterson, and a couple of guys we'd have no problem moving in some manner if one of Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson or Barnes forces their way into the rotation later in the year.
Just to show my work, the way I happen to define tiers of pitchers is by looking at the last two years of qualified starting pitching WAR, ERA- and xFIP, and I'm using the numbers from FanGraphs to get these numbers. In these Porcello ranks 24th/44th/21st , Miley ranks 49th/57th/34th, and Niese ranks 57th/54th/40th, respectively in these categories.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 11, 2014 21:04:52 GMT -5
We could just give Scherzer 7 years and 189 million. I know crazy money, but Lester got 6 and 155 and Scherzer is a lot better pitcher. Trade for Hamels or Zimmerman. Or just sign James Shields. We have a lot of options, not sure what the best one is. Depends on contract terms/ players we have to give up. Would love to be able to listen in on Ben and his conversation for pitchers. WOW that would be so awesome. Eades of espn said boras was looking for eight years. Someone, the Yankees for instance, will probably do it. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2014 0:15:43 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto. I would. There's no way Cincy makes that deal. They'd want Owens and/or Rodriguez, probably Marrero, and more (like Margot). I don't think the Reds will deal Cueto right now. I think come 7/31, it's a real possibility he will be dealt. Cueto is the guy I want the Sox to get to be their ace and sign long-term. I imagine if one of those kids comes up and looks good, Cincy could be interested. My hope is that it's Ranaudo they want, although I can't imagine why they'd want him over Owens, Rodriguez, or Barnes. I think they need a SS. I hope Marrero hits well in AAA. And they need corner OF help, although if Bradley could hit in AAA, then perhaps they'd have interest. Between Bradley and Hamilton, the Reds would cover more ground in two spots in the OF than any other team. Perhaps Cecchini hits well in AAA and converts to LF or Bryce Brentz puts up big numbers in AAA. That's my hope, but it doesn't sound too realistic. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2014 0:44:22 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto. I would. There's no way Cincy makes that deal. They'd want Owens and/or Rodriguez, probably Marrero, and more (like Margot). I don't think the Reds will deal Cueto right now. I think come 7/31, it's a real possibility he will be dealt. Cueto is the guy I want the Sox to get to be their ace and sign long-term. I imagine if one of those kids comes up and looks good, Cincy could be interested. My hope is that it's Ranaudo they want, although I can't imagine why they'd want him over Owens, Rodriguez, or Barnes. I think they need a SS. I hope Marrero hits well in AAA. And they need corner OF help, although if Bradley could hit in AAA, then perhaps they'd have interest. Between Bradley and Hamilton, the Reds would cover more ground in two spots in the OF than any other team. Perhaps Cecchini hits well in AAA and converts to LF or Bryce Brentz puts up big numbers in AAA. That's my hope, but it doesn't sound too realistic. I would love to get Cueto, would complete a great offseason, leaving only small holes to fill. I would trade for him before the season started so you could get a comp pick if he does leave. I'm not going to trade Owens for him, no way unless he signs an extension and I don't think he would. I would consider Rodriguez, but the package has to be less then Hamels. I'm not sending them 3 top 100/150 type prospects and filler. |
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Dec 12, 2014 0:54:00 GMT -5
I would. There's no way Cincy makes that deal. They'd want Owens and/or Rodriguez, probably Marrero, and more (like Margot). I don't think the Reds will deal Cueto right now. I think come 7/31, it's a real possibility he will be dealt. Cueto is the guy I want the Sox to get to be their ace and sign long-term. I imagine if one of those kids comes up and looks good, Cincy could be interested. My hope is that it's Ranaudo they want, although I can't imagine why they'd want him over Owens, Rodriguez, or Barnes. I think they need a SS. I hope Marrero hits well in AAA. And they need corner OF help, although if Bradley could hit in AAA, then perhaps they'd have interest. Between Bradley and Hamilton, the Reds would cover more ground in two spots in the OF than any other team. Perhaps Cecchini hits well in AAA and converts to LF or Bryce Brentz puts up big numbers in AAA. That's my hope, but it doesn't sound too realistic. You're probably right about my proposal not being enough. I hadn't figured in the fact that Cueto would come with a qualifying offer. That would make me up the second prospect to Owens if necessary. So Kelly, Owens, Marrero. That still seems a bit steep for one year of team control, though. Team control seems to be hugely valued in this market. The Reds need young, MLB ready, cost controlled assets. Its possible Brentz/Cecchini/Bradley would sweeten things without adding an Owens. Though you're right, Cueto is an absolute beast. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2014 0:57:51 GMT -5
I would. There's no way Cincy makes that deal. They'd want Owens and/or Rodriguez, probably Marrero, and more (like Margot). I don't think the Reds will deal Cueto right now. I think come 7/31, it's a real possibility he will be dealt. Cueto is the guy I want the Sox to get to be their ace and sign long-term. I imagine if one of those kids comes up and looks good, Cincy could be interested. My hope is that it's Ranaudo they want, although I can't imagine why they'd want him over Owens, Rodriguez, or Barnes. I think they need a SS. I hope Marrero hits well in AAA. And they need corner OF help, although if Bradley could hit in AAA, then perhaps they'd have interest. Between Bradley and Hamilton, the Reds would cover more ground in two spots in the OF than any other team. Perhaps Cecchini hits well in AAA and converts to LF or Bryce Brentz puts up big numbers in AAA. That's my hope, but it doesn't sound too realistic. I would love to get Cueto, would complete a great offseason, leaving only small holes to fill. I would trade for him before the season started so you could get a comp pick if he does leave. I'm not going to trade Owens for him, no way unless he signs an extension and I don't think he would. I would consider Rodriguez, but the package has to be less then Hamels. I'm not sending them 3 top 100/150 type prospects and filler. Sounds like Cincy is going to keep him to start the season. They saved some money on Latos and Simon and will try to re-sign him and win with him. If they fail in both areas, then Cueto will probably be the most sought after pitcher at the 7/31 deadline. If that's the case, even though the Sox wouldn't get to do a QO, I would think even though the price would still be costly it would be cheaper than trying to get him now. It used to be that the trading team could really extract a ton of value from the acquiring team because they knew the acquiring team could get the value of a QO, but now that the rule has been changed, it becomes a pure rental for the acquiring team and the desire to overpay is lessened, so then it becomes a question of can we get more than what a QO draft pick would be worth for the trading team and playing teams off of each other, as I'm sure there would be a lot of competition for Cueto. With Cueto I wouldn't worry about not getting a QO if he was obtained mid-season. He's somebody I'd want the Sox to extend. He and Porcello, if he was extended, too, could make for an expensive, but enjoyable 1-2 punch (with Miley as #3). |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2014 1:01:21 GMT -5
I would. There's no way Cincy makes that deal. They'd want Owens and/or Rodriguez, probably Marrero, and more (like Margot). I don't think the Reds will deal Cueto right now. I think come 7/31, it's a real possibility he will be dealt. Cueto is the guy I want the Sox to get to be their ace and sign long-term. I imagine if one of those kids comes up and looks good, Cincy could be interested. My hope is that it's Ranaudo they want, although I can't imagine why they'd want him over Owens, Rodriguez, or Barnes. I think they need a SS. I hope Marrero hits well in AAA. And they need corner OF help, although if Bradley could hit in AAA, then perhaps they'd have interest. Between Bradley and Hamilton, the Reds would cover more ground in two spots in the OF than any other team. Perhaps Cecchini hits well in AAA and converts to LF or Bryce Brentz puts up big numbers in AAA. That's my hope, but it doesn't sound too realistic. You're probably right about my proposal not being enough. I hadn't figured in the fact that Cueto would come with a qualifying offer. That would make me up the second prospect to Owens if necessary. So Kelly, Owens, Marrero. That still seems a bit steep for one year of team control, though. Team control seems to be hugely valued in this market. The Reds need young, MLB ready, cost controlled assets. Its possible Brentz/Cecchini/Bradley would sweeten things without adding an Owens. Though you're right, Cueto is an absolute beast. If you're Cincy, wouldn't you want Owens. If Cueto could be extended, then I would have to deal Owens as highly as I think of him. What the Sox don't have that Cincy would be interested in would be a corner OF who could mash. Brentz is the closest thing they have and at this point he's not a tremendous prospect, but we could always hope he or Henry Ramos have outstanding seasons. And of course, Cincy needs a SS as well. I think Marrero will hit .260 - .275 in AAA this season. The only question with Cueto is his health. I thought I heard he idolizes Pedro. Maybe Pedro can eventually convince him Boston is the place to be, sort of the way Pedro's idol Juan Marichal did for Pedro. |
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Post by greenmonstah on Dec 12, 2014 15:52:03 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto. How on Earth is that even close to enough for Cueto (even though he is a FA at the end of the year)? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 12, 2014 15:59:44 GMT -5
Are the Reds doing that though? They just acquired young talent in the Latos and Simon trades. It seems like they are blowing it up. I wouldn't be surprised if something like Kelly, Ranaudo, and Marrero (or a lower level prospect) were shipped for Cueto. How on Earth is that even close to enough for Cueto (even though he is a FA at the end of the year)? What's wrong with that? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2014 16:18:32 GMT -5
I would love to get Cueto, would complete a great offseason, leaving only small holes to fill. I would trade for him before the season started so you could get a comp pick if he does leave. I'm not going to trade Owens for him, no way unless he signs an extension and I don't think he would. I would consider Rodriguez, but the package has to be less then Hamels. I'm not sending them 3 top 100/150 type prospects and filler. Sounds like Cincy is going to keep him to start the season. They saved some money on Latos and Simon and will try to re-sign him and win with him. If they fail in both areas, then Cueto will probably be the most sought after pitcher at the 7/31 deadline. If that's the case, even though the Sox wouldn't get to do a QO, I would think even though the price would still be costly it would be cheaper than trying to get him now. It used to be that the trading team could really extract a ton of value from the acquiring team because they knew the acquiring team could get the value of a QO, but now that the rule has been changed, it becomes a pure rental for the acquiring team and the desire to overpay is lessened, so then it becomes a question of can we get more than what a QO draft pick would be worth for the trading team and playing teams off of each other, as I'm sure there would be a lot of competition for Cueto. With Cueto I wouldn't worry about not getting a QO if he was obtained mid-season. He's somebody I'd want the Sox to extend. He and Porcello, if he was extended, too, could make for an expensive, but enjoyable 1-2 punch (with Miley as #3). I just don't see how Cincy can afford to keep Cueto, not when the starting point is Lester deal. Can Cincy really afford to pay Cueto 25 plus million a year on a long term deal? I think not. Oh course they keep saying they want to resign him, it helps keep Cueto value high. I think it's all talk and he's dealt before the season starts. I'm okay with paying a little bit higher price for a full season of Cueto, because we get a QO pick.
People keep thinking that the Red are dumping Salary to resign Cueto. That doesn't make sense. Do you really think he wants to resign on a team that just lost 40% of its rotation so they could afford to pay him? Unless the Reds have a few more moves up their sleeves this looks like a fire sale.
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