SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by dmaineah on May 14, 2015 10:49:45 GMT -5
If the Rockies are to trade him I think the Red Sox should try to get him and make him the 1st baseman. I think with Hanley and Pablo he would be a great fit in the middle of the order especially once Ortiz is gone.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 10:55:34 GMT -5
make him the 1st baseman. LOL
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,326
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on May 14, 2015 10:56:22 GMT -5
Making one of the best fielding SS in baseball your first baseman is like trading for Kershaw and moving him to the pen.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 14, 2015 11:00:47 GMT -5
Yikes, what is going on with him this year? BB rate has cratered to 1.8% and K-rate jumped 6 points to 22.1%. And his ISO is way down. He has a .369 BABIP and a 95 wRC+. I think I'd stay away for now and let him prove that's SSS. The injury risk is way too big with him. And there's no way I'd move him off SS.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 14, 2015 14:59:07 GMT -5
There is nowhere for Bogaerts to go if Tulo comes here, so the only way this makes sense is if sending Bogaerts back. Which could look pretty awful 2 or 3 years from now.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 14, 2015 15:03:31 GMT -5
There is nowhere for Bogaerts to go if Tulo comes here, so the only way this makes sense is if sending Bogaerts back. Which could look pretty awful 2 or 3 years from now. He's obviously the headliner here. I wouldn't do it, especially with Xander's improved defense. For all the complaints of his lack of hitting, he's really not far from being an average hitter at SS right now even with as bad as he's been. And there is so, so far between what he is now and his ceiling.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 14, 2015 15:25:45 GMT -5
There is nowhere for Bogaerts to go if Tulo comes here, so the only way this makes sense is if sending Bogaerts back. Which could look pretty awful 2 or 3 years from now. He's obviously the headliner here. I wouldn't do it, especially with Xander's improved defense. For all the complaints of his lack of hitting, he's really not far from being an average hitter at SS right now even with as bad as he's been. And there is so, so far between what he is now and his ceiling. Not necessarily, don't forget that the original idea was to make tulo our first baseman. In all serious tho, if the sox are going to use their assets for a trade, I can't see it being for anything other than a pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2015 17:13:25 GMT -5
There is nowhere for Bogaerts to go if Tulo comes here, so the only way this makes sense is if sending Bogaerts back. Which could look pretty awful 2 or 3 years from now. He's obviously the headliner here. I wouldn't do it, especially with Xander's improved defense. For all the complaints of his lack of hitting, he's really not far from being an average hitter at SS right now even with as bad as he's been. And there is so, so far between what he is now and his ceiling. Huh, yeah, he's right about average. go figure. That said, he hit .395/.452/.474 through April 17 (with good BABIP luck at .455) and has hit .178/.231/.274 since (.207 BABIP). The overall line has come down to being league average, with the issue being that it'll continue to go down if he doesn't get straightened out. he's been better on defense, but that's still league average or a slight tick below. If he's a hole in your lineup for months at a time, that's a problem. But I digress.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 17:34:18 GMT -5
He's about average by rWAR, but I can't figure out how they got there. DRS has him at a prorated -9 runs/year this year, and his offense is below the league-average for shortstops by a significant margin (he's got an OPS+ of 82; league-average for shortstops was 90 last year). Not sure how that adds up to an average player.
His fWAR is well below-average with similar inputs (including a -4.9 UZR/150)-- it has him as a prorated .6 WAR/600 PA player, which sounds far more accurate than me.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2015 17:50:55 GMT -5
I was just looking at his slash line. He's a tick above average in BA and OBP, just below in SLG.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 18:08:17 GMT -5
I was just looking at his slash line. He's a tick above average in BA and OBP, just below in SLG. Recall that he plays in one of the more hitter-friendly home parks in the league, and once you adjust for that, his overall line is below-average even for shortstops.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2015 18:43:01 GMT -5
I was just looking at his slash line. He's a tick above average in BA and OBP, just below in SLG. Recall that he plays in one of the more hitter-friendly home parks in the league, and once you adjust for that, his overall line is below-average even for shortstops. The park factors on B-Ref have Fenway as pitcher-friendly this year, barely hitter friendly multi-year, though.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 14, 2015 20:22:32 GMT -5
Recall that he plays in one of the more hitter-friendly home parks in the league, and once you adjust for that, his overall line is below-average even for shortstops. The park factors on B-Ref have Fenway as pitcher-friendly this year, barely hitter friendly multi-year, though. Eh, I'm skeptical, this contradicts what we've known for close to a hundred years. Probably explains why Bogaerts' rWAR is so high, though.
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on May 14, 2015 20:45:42 GMT -5
I'm a no on Tulowitzki because it means giving up on Xander. Troy would have to play SS. I'm one of Xander's biggest critics because I believe he should be better. I'd rather see him go back to last year's strikeout rates than swing like he is now, but not ready to give up on him.
The situation in Colorado could really get ugly though. Someone might get him cheap.
As for the stats. Not interested in any stats that say Fenway is a pitchers park.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2015 23:27:30 GMT -5
Apparently he is not going to ask for a trade. Move along, nothing to see here.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 15, 2015 2:27:32 GMT -5
That said, he hit .395/.452/.474 through April 17 (with good BABIP luck at .455) and has hit .178/.231/.274 since (.207 BABIP). Yes, that is how baseball works. There is randomness, and you can find all the points on the binomial distribution by splitting things up with arbitrary endpoints or stuff like "Tazawa on the road vs. the Blue Jays at night".
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on May 15, 2015 3:02:11 GMT -5
He's obviously the headliner here. I wouldn't do it, especially with Xander's improved defense. For all the complaints of his lack of hitting, he's really not far from being an average hitter at SS right now even with as bad as he's been. And there is so, so far between what he is now and his ceiling. Huh, yeah, he's right about average. go figure. That said, he hit .395/.452/.474 through April 17 (with good BABIP luck at .455) and has hit .178/.231/.274 since (.207 BABIP). The overall line has come down to being league average, with the issue being that it'll continue to go down if he doesn't get straightened out. he's been better on defense, but that's still league average or a slight tick below. If he's a hole in your lineup for months at a time, that's a problem. But I digress. I'm sure you know this, but as pee fangraphs, troy said he would retire rather than be moved off shortstop, and both defensive metric rating system have them rated poorly defensively or far below as of yest. Granted SSS, and his pedigree not included. Obviously he would not turn down the one hundred and twenty million dollars. An aging, seemingly declining, injury prone, disgruntled superstar playing a position we have no idea if he would be able to handle (that's a stretch I realize), in a new league away from coors and the nl West doesn't seem like a move Cherington would make. Of course we've all been caught holding that bag. (Hanley)
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on May 15, 2015 3:02:53 GMT -5
Per fangraphs *
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 9:09:46 GMT -5
I am concerned about Bogaerts though. The last two years he has been a very different player than the teenager who trounced the much older minor league competition he faced. He's still a baby with plenty of time to turn it around, but from my non scouting eye he just hasn't looked good at the plate. Put it this way, if we signed Bogaerts out of Cuba in 2014 and just went off what we saw in these two years, I don't think we would have a very high opinion on him at all.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 9:14:57 GMT -5
I am concerned about Bogaerts though. The last two years he has been a very different player than the teenager who trounced the much older minor league competition he faced. He's still a baby with plenty of time to turn it around, but from my non scouting eye he just hasn't looked good at the plate. Put it this way, if we signed Bogaerts out of Cuba in 2014 and just went off what we saw in these two years, I don't think we would have a very high opinion on him at all. I'm more concerned with a guy who has averaged 88 games per year over last 3 years, making 40 times as much as Xander.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 9:26:29 GMT -5
Yea, I was more talking about Bogaerts in general instead of Bogaerts against Tulo. Maybe that is a discussion worth having on the main forums.
Tulo is in a very general, not to be extrapolated, sense similar to Hanley over the last couple of years. Both have been injury prone, but have elite potential with the bat when on the field. Tulo is also a plus defender at a premium position, who also has a longer track record of injury.
I also think Tulo would benefit health wise from playing away from that thin Colorado air. His numbers would take a hit once he is removed from that launch pad called Coors field, where the baseballs are filled with helium, but this dude could still hit, and would probably enjoy the monster out in left.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 15, 2015 10:16:22 GMT -5
Apparently he is not going to ask for a trade. Move along, nothing to see here. To me it looks like this was a warning shot to get the front offices attention and basically a trade request. Not sure who would give up the prospects and take on the salary for someone who averaged 105 games a year from age 25-29 and now on the wrong side of 30.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 10:56:10 GMT -5
Apparently he is not going to ask for a trade. Move along, nothing to see here. To me it looks like this was a warning shot to get the front offices attention and basically a trade request. Not sure who would give up the prospects and take on the salary for someone who averaged 105 games a year from age 25-29 and now on the wrong side of 30. Teams who want to win now. Dodgers took A-Gon and Crawford, Padres took on Kemp and Melvon Upton. I would say off the top of my head, the Yankees, Padres, and Mets would be interested if available. Maybe the Nats or Astro's as a sleeper. He doesn't have the same market as Lucroy, but there would be interest.
|
|
|