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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 13, 2014 14:22:34 GMT -5
Keith Law chat:
Go Sox (Boston) Cecchini's downside is Bill Mueller seems a little high for me. Am I overrating the career of Mueller or is Cecchini really that good?
Klaw (1:16 PM) I think you're overrating Mueller.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 13, 2014 14:32:10 GMT -5
Keith Law chat: Go Sox (Boston) Cecchini's downside is Bill Mueller seems a little high for me. Am I overrating the career of Mueller or is Cecchini really that good? Klaw (1:16 PM) I think you're overrating Mueller. Mueller was very solid all-around, ending up with a .373 career OBP (.352 wOBA, 112 wRC+) while playing average to slightly above average defense at third (aside: Bill Mueller is my favorite player). Unfortunately, injuries hampered some productive seasons and cut his career short by a few years. If the consensus is that Cecchini will most likely eclipse that production and can play at least a fringe-average third base, we should be pretty damn excited.
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Post by Matt Huegel on Feb 13, 2014 15:28:51 GMT -5
More on this topic in the SP.com podcast tomorrow morning...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 13, 2014 19:39:40 GMT -5
Keith Law chat: Go Sox (Boston) Cecchini's downside is Bill Mueller seems a little high for me. Am I overrating the career of Mueller or is Cecchini really that good? Klaw (1:16 PM) I think you're overrating Mueller. Mueller was very solid all-around, ending up with a .373 career OBP (.352 wOBA, 112 wRC+) while playing average to slightly above average defense at third (aside: Bill Mueller is my favorite player). Unfortunately, injuries hampered some productive seasons and cut his career short by a few years. If the consensus is that Cecchini will most likely eclipse that production and can play at least a fringe-average third base, we should be pretty damn excited. To put into perspective the original statement that the questioner was referring to, in his Top100, Law said this about Cecchini: Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defenseThat's a pretty high projection no matter how you view Mueller.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2014 22:40:26 GMT -5
More on this topic in the SP.com podcast tomorrow morning... We love you guys and posted early. You're welcome.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 14, 2014 9:23:55 GMT -5
Cecchini is the only position player I've seen live below AAA in the last five year who I thought could come up to MLB and help the team immediately offensively. Pitch recognition and ability to get on was impressive every time. I saw Xander in AA too, and while he hit the ball harder and could drive it longer he wasn't at the point in his career path yet where he was walking much. Cecchini not only has a plan going to the plate, he's very good at executing it or adjusting it as the at bat unfolds. Reminded me of Youkilis the way he could work a count. Love it.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 5, 2014 12:34:03 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on Mar 5, 2014 15:41:37 GMT -5
If Cecchini (I'm never going to learn to spell that by heart) is the next Bill Mueller, I'm going to geek. That's an excellent career, and of course there's upside on top of that. I think I'd take that kind of OBP at the top of our order right now! Add: over WMB I might add.
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Post by taftreign on Mar 5, 2014 21:58:16 GMT -5
Reading reviews like this one which I fully agree with is why I questioned the BA Prospect Handbook grade of 55 High. Not so much an argument against the 55 which is fine but the High designation. Both Betts and Swihart received a high but Betts has shown it for essentially one year and Swihart has development both offensively and defensively to be Major League ready. I believe Cecchini's approach with the bat would play at the bigs as it's currently constituted. JBJr is a 55 Medium and I felt it more appropriate for Cecchini as well. Bradley has a better defensive floor but Garin has a better offensive floor. Side note: Same with Vazquez who was a 50 high. I'd have been no worse than 50 medium and could argue 50 low.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 6, 2014 10:15:59 GMT -5
Mueller was very solid all-around, ending up with a .373 career OBP (.352 wOBA, 112 wRC+) while playing average to slightly above average defense at third (aside: Bill Mueller is my favorite player). Unfortunately, injuries hampered some productive seasons and cut his career short by a few years. If the consensus is that Cecchini will most likely eclipse that production and can play at least a fringe-average third base, we should be pretty damn excited. To put into perspective the original statement that the questioner was referring to, in his Top100, Law said this about Cecchini: Downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher AVG & OBPs while providing comparable defenseThat's a pretty high projection no matter how you view Mueller. A lot of us remember Mueller fondly because he came up huge for the Sox. I'm excited about Cecchini but I'm wondering about what is to come between him and middlebrooks.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Mar 6, 2014 10:31:33 GMT -5
It will be so much easier to add "situational" power through film study, game preparation, and the added muscle that happens naturally than it is to expect players to add strike zone judgement. See ball hit ball is one tough habit to beat.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2014 12:18:26 GMT -5
Unless Cecchini changes his swing, I don't think he's going to hit for much power. He has a perfectly level swing, like Wade Boggs and all of the Walt Hriniak disciples. I'm not a huge fan of that, because it saps power and doesn't necessarily make for a better average hitter. The year Boggs put some uppercut in his swing and hit 24 HR, he still hit .360 something. Hriniak also ruined Rich Gedman's swing.
There have been some comments to this effect from Garin and others that he's not changing his approach and is only looking to hit line drives. That can definitely be effective, but we'll see if his walk rates can hold up without the power. I think his K rate is going to have to come down for him to be as successful as people think he could be.
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Post by terriblehondo on Mar 6, 2014 12:44:35 GMT -5
There were an lot of very good hitters that followed the Lau/Hriniak theories. A few are in the Hall of Fame. Does it work for everyone no but what does.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2014 12:51:48 GMT -5
There were an lot of very good hitters that followed the Lau/Hriniak theories. A few are in the Hall of Fame. Does it work for everyone no but what does. Yes I know it's crazy to complain about someone like Boggs, but I never saw the point in removing all power needlessly. I honestly think Boggs could have been better than what he was. I mean imagine what Hriniak would have done to someone like Ted Williams.
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Post by eagleeye9184 on Mar 6, 2014 13:21:17 GMT -5
Ted Williams would never have let anyone tinker with, let alone change, his swing.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2014 13:25:01 GMT -5
Ted Williams would never have let anyone tinker with, let alone change, his swing. It's funny, I looked up Walt Hriniak on Wikipedia and found this, which is pretty much exactly what I was saying:
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2014 15:07:47 GMT -5
I think his K rate is going to have to come down for him to be as successful as people think he could be. Crazy I said this right before he went 0-4 with 4 Ks. I'll shut up now.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 7, 2014 16:58:27 GMT -5
I think his K rate is going to have to come down for him to be as successful as people think he could be. Crazy I said this right before he went 0-4 with 4 Ks. I'll shut up now. During a televised spring game I saw him swing and miss three times in one at-bat with all 3 pitches being in the same general location.....knee high and below on or just off the inside corner. I wondered then if he too (similar to Bradley) had a 'hole in his swing'. Yesterday's game was not on TV but I was curious if at least some of the 4 consecutive strikeouts were obtained in the same manner.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 7, 2014 18:45:03 GMT -5
Most LH hitters like low and inside pitches ( over the plate of course ).
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 8, 2014 7:54:55 GMT -5
Most LH hitters like low and inside pitches ( over the plate of course ). True...because they usually can do damage with them. Three misses suggested a possible weakness there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 8, 2014 8:05:33 GMT -5
Most LH hitters like low and inside pitches ( over the plate of course ). True...because they usually can do damage with them. Three misses suggested a possible weakness there. Is there evidence to support that it's an issue ? 3 misses is SSS extreme.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 8, 2014 9:04:32 GMT -5
True...because they usually can do damage with them. Three misses suggested a possible weakness there. Is there evidence to support that it's an issue ? 3 misses is SSS extreme. Look I said it was only one at-bat. What stood out was 3 pitches missed in the same location. That's it. That's all. The next game he struck out 4 consecutive times. The game was not on TV. There is no solid link. I was just curious putting the two together whether there was a connection. Goodness I have not done a thesis on this.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Mar 8, 2014 9:07:09 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Mar 8, 2014 9:22:23 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd.
Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense.
or
Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 8, 2014 9:39:24 GMT -5
Is there evidence to support that it's an issue ? 3 misses is SSS extreme. Look I said it was only one at-bat. What stood out was 3 pitches missed in the same location. That's it. That's all. The next game he struck out 4 consecutive times. The game was not on TV. There is no solid link. I was just curious putting the two together whether there was a connection. Goodness I have not done a thesis on this. I'm actually more curious if anybody has done any analysis of where Garin's strengths and weaknesses are. I'm guessing not because his overall performance wouldn't ordinarily generate such a study. Failures are analyzed a lot more often than successes. It might or might not be the case but I'd be more inclined to chalk it up to a bad day baring something more concrete. I really didn't mean it negatively towards your post or you, sorry if it appeared that way. I've seen enough of your posting to understand that this type of analysis isn't your forte but do value very much your general input.
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