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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 8, 2014 10:50:49 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. If they both look like major leaguers then assuming WMB has better defense just move Cecchini to LF. Either way it's a good problem to have. I like Cecchini's offensive approach better but if we build a team with guys like that then we can afford to have one WMB in the lineup......especially if he can hit 25-30 bombs a year.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 8, 2014 11:16:43 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. I think it's too early to consider WMB a better defender than Cecchini. By both statistical and eye accounts, WMB was below average at the hot corner in 2013. It sounds like Cecchini still has a decent amount of work to do there himself, including smoothing his actions out a bit, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were on par with or better than Middlebrooks defensively within a year or two.
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Post by jmei on Mar 8, 2014 12:01:09 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. Not to pile on, but Cecchini hit a combined 46 extra-base hits and had a .127 ISO in 2012 and hit a combined 47 extra-base hits and had a .149 ISO in 2013. He doesn't hit many home runs, but pops a ton of doubles/triples, giving him roughly league-average power overall (league-average ISO was .143 last year). We're not talking about Jose Iglesias here-- Cecchini should hit for at least as much power as, say, Dustin Pedroia (.146 ISO, last three years) or Daniel Nava (.143 ISO, last three years) or non-2011 Jacoby Ellsbury (.128 ISO in 2013; .114 ISO in 2008-9).
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2014 12:31:51 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. Not to pile on, but Cecchini hit a combined 46 extra-base hits and had a .127 ISO in 2012 and hit a combined 47 extra-base hits and had a .149 ISO in 2013. He doesn't hit many home runs, but pops a ton of doubles/triples, giving him roughly league-average power overall (league-average ISO was .143 last year). We're not talking about Jose Iglesias here-- Cecchini should hit for at least as much power as, say, Dustin Pedroia (.146 ISO, last three years) or Daniel Nava (.143 ISO, last three years) or non-2011 Jacoby Ellsbury (.128 ISO in 2013; .114 ISO in 2008-9). Of note is that Cecchini had a .108 ISO in Portland last year. Let's hope that's not a trend.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Mar 8, 2014 12:58:43 GMT -5
Without getting into a major research project - a drop of .030-.050 points of ISO from A+ to AA is very common and it usually doesn't bounce back. I am a huge Cecchini fan, but his power is still a concern.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 8, 2014 13:22:00 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. Once more I'll point out that this type of hitter is mostly fictional.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Mar 8, 2014 14:14:03 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. Once more I'll point out that this type of hitter is mostly fictional. Exaggerated claim, then exaggerated refutation.
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Post by bluechip on Mar 10, 2014 10:04:08 GMT -5
At some point the Sox have a tough choice ahead of them if Middlebroks and Cecchini both stay at 3rd. Middlebrooks - Low on base percentage but with good power and decent defense. or Checchini - On base machine with nothing resembling power and questionable defense. Once more I'll point out that this type of hitter is mostly fictional. Oh those guy are oh too real: especially at third base. Eddie Yost, eddie Joost, Dave Magadan, ect...
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Post by godot on Mar 10, 2014 10:10:10 GMT -5
It is just ST, but Checchini isn't showing much at the plate so far. Simply not hitting the ball very hard. One game 4 ks, yesterday some feeble grounders. Yeah, ss but just saying.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 10, 2014 10:33:05 GMT -5
Without getting into a major research project - a drop of .030-.050 points of ISO from A+ to AA is very common and it usually doesn't bounce back. I am a huge Cecchini fan, but his power is still a concern. This is interesting to me ... I heard this once before but haven't seen anything real on it. How common and how often does it come back? Also, at what point does ISO become meaningful/predictive at that level (Cecchini had roughly a half-season at AA)? I'm a huge Cecchini fan, as well, but this is the only (potentially) concerning point in his stat profile to me, the drop in SLG from A->AA.
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Post by godot on Mar 10, 2014 11:08:41 GMT -5
He is projected to start at AAA, but perhaps he should start at Portland. I guess playing time for all the infield prospects could be an issue. I am not crazy about him, but this may be out of ignorance. Just do not get hot about a candidate until they successfully navigate AA. Right now he projects to be a 270 or so hitter that walks a little ( based on AA experience), but these kids are always growing and developing. At least he has the potential to do more that he showed at the short stint at AA.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Mar 10, 2014 11:41:50 GMT -5
Wasn't there a supposedly hot prospect who only walked once in 97 aa PAs and had questions about his defense?whatever happened to that guy?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Mar 10, 2014 20:25:43 GMT -5
Garin has little upper body strength.
He needs to bulk up to gain power .
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2014 20:38:02 GMT -5
Wasn't there a supposedly hot prospect who only walked once in 97 aa PAs and had questions about his defense?whatever happened to that guy? He went on to be an inappropriate comp in many discussions of other prospects.
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Post by godot on Mar 10, 2014 22:15:25 GMT -5
Garin has little upper body strength. He needs to bulk up to gain power . Seems okay there. Issue may be more his swing. For whatever reason he does not generate much power and just from the st games, it looks like he tops the ball and hits a lot of grounders. just based on very limited observation, but I wonder what his ground ball rate is.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 11, 2014 8:05:57 GMT -5
Garin has little upper body strength. He needs to bulk up to gain power . Seems okay there. Issue may be more his swing. For whatever reason he does not generate much power and just from the st games, it looks like he tops the ball and hits a lot of grounders. just based on very limited observation, but I wonder what his ground ball rate is. It's a very level swing.
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Post by godot on Mar 11, 2014 11:02:02 GMT -5
Yup, he has a level swing, but perhaps "too level".
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 11, 2014 11:59:23 GMT -5
I bet some teams would be tempted to just make Cechinni a corner outfielder / sub 1st baseman and fast track him to the majors. He wouldn't be bad there defensively and he would get on base extremely well with decent doubles power. He could be in the majors within a year that way and contribute quickly to a mlb team.
Not saying it is ideal at all but we should at least be thinking about it. I would prefer the added value of 3rd base of course but it may be that they can project him already as being delayed some by his defense. It may be behind some of the Carp talk even IMO. In terms of long term planning.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 11, 2014 12:27:47 GMT -5
I bet some teams would be tempted to just make Cechinni a corner outfielder / sub 1st baseman and fast track him to the majors. He wouldn't be bad there defensively and he would get on base extremely well with decent doubles power. He could be in the majors within a year that way and contribute quickly to a mlb team. Not saying it is ideal at all but we should at least be thinking about it. I would prefer the added value of 3rd base of course but it may be that they can project him already as being delayed some by his defense. It may be behind some of the Carp talk even IMO. In terms of long term planning. I'd pencil Cecchini in to start over this guy that Miami has as their starting 3B. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6086&position=3BI think the Sox are in ok shape for left side infield depth with Cecchini and Marrero.
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Post by jmei on Mar 11, 2014 18:43:49 GMT -5
Garin has little upper body strength. He needs to bulk up to gain power . Seems okay there. Issue may be more his swing. For whatever reason he does not generate much power and just from the st games, it looks like he tops the ball and hits a lot of grounders. just based on very limited observation, but I wonder what his ground ball rate is. SoxProspects has a great stats page where you can look this stuff up. Click the "Stats" button on the top row, right-hand side of the page header, click Portland, then click Sabermetric. Cecchini hit 48% ground balls in Portland last year and 50% in Salem last year, which is very high. It's very, very difficult to hit for much power if you're hitting that many worm-burners. Here's a custom leaderboard sorted by highest GB% amongst qualified MLB hitters last year. None of the twenty-four hitters who hit 50%+ ground balls last year hit more than 20 home runs, and just ten hit even double-digit homers (note that they all got 500+ PAs, so playing time wasn't an issue). The league-average isolated power was .143 last year; just three of the twenty-four hitters with 50%+ GBs last year reached that mark (Eric Hosmer, Starling Marte, Russell Martin). Suffice it to say, as a big fan of Cecchini's, this is very concerning.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2014 19:26:02 GMT -5
How predictive is that, though? I remember when Hideki Matsui came to the states, he spent season one rolling over grounders to the second baseman and ended up with a 54.7% GB rate. After that it dropped significantly and he became a pretty serious power threat from 2004 to 2010. Obviously n=1 here, but I just wonder if there's a good study on how minor league GB% translates. Cecchini's high rates might just be a function of still making a lot of contact while adjusting to a more difficult level, something that would be a positive rather than a negative.
Looking at your table, there are a few guys who just can't hit, but there are also a few with more gap-to-gap power who generated a .400+ SLG based largely on batting average and doubles - Segura, Hosmer, Kendrick, Ellsbury, Marte. That does fit in with Cecchini's scouting report. It's still an important thing to keep an eye on though, especially depending on where he ends up defensively - .300/.360/.425 will play at third, but not necessarily at first.
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Post by godot on Mar 11, 2014 19:34:12 GMT -5
Thanks jimei, no surprise with the gb rate, and since it was about the same in Salem a Portland, the adjustment explanation does not hold water. If you couple this with his strikes, you have a hitter with some issues. If it is his swing mechanics, it may be too late to change. He would be best serve to start at Portland.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2014 19:37:11 GMT -5
Thanks jimei, no surprise with the gb rate, and since it was about the same in Salem a Portland, the adjustment explanation does not hold water. If you couple this with his strikes, you have a hitter with some issues. If it is his swing mechanics, it may be too late to change. He would be best serve to start at Portland. Why not? (Non-rhetorical question).
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Post by godot on Mar 12, 2014 8:05:25 GMT -5
Correct me if I am wrong, but if his tendency to hit ground balls at high rates is a function of adjusting to a new league, from a to AA, wouldn't one expect some differences in the rates to make such a statement. You statement is more or less a guess or speculation, but where is some evidence to indicate there may be some truth to it. Indeed, adjustments is the name of the game, and AA is a major test, but he hit grounders at the same rate at both levels. I find it more fruitful to observe and analyze his swing and its effects. Not that I can but others have. I may be off base here ( pun intended), but long ball hitters usually have a little hitch in their swing that provides a lift. Seems like it is natural, but you can change it to a more level, flat plane swing. One problem thou from my limited experience can be "topping the ball" at a high rate. Again, hope I am wrong on this with regards to Cecchini, but he does seem to strike out a lot. If he also has a tendency to hit grounders, it is hard to expect much power or a high average. He may walk a lot, but if pitchers are snore threatened by his bat, that could change also. Personally I like him, and believe he can make some "adjustments".
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Post by jmei on Mar 12, 2014 9:08:15 GMT -5
How predictive is that, though? I remember when Hideki Matsui came to the states, he spent season one rolling over grounders to the second baseman and ended up with a 54.7% GB rate. After that it dropped significantly and he became a pretty serious power threat from 2004 to 2010. Obviously n=1 here, but I just wonder if there's a good study on how minor league GB% translates. Cecchini's high rates might just be a function of still making a lot of contact while adjusting to a more difficult level, something that would be a positive rather than a negative. Looking at your table, there are a few guys who just can't hit, but there are also a few with more gap-to-gap power who generated a .400+ SLG based largely on batting average and doubles - Segura, Hosmer, Kendrick, Ellsbury, Marte. That does fit in with Cecchini's scouting report. It's still an important thing to keep an eye on though, especially depending on where he ends up defensively - .300/.360/.425 will play at third, but not necessarily at first. Ground ball rate has a fairly high year-to-year correlation for hitters of .793, which, for comparison's sake, is similar to the year-to-year correlation of HR/PA or uBB/PA. Cecchini did only hit 42.9% GB in Greenville in 2012, so there's an argument to be made that his higher rates in 2013 had something to do with adjusting to higher levels. Still, the fact that it meshes so well with his scouting report and his results on on the field is fairly convincing, I think. I absolutely agree, though, that Cecchini is going to be a pretty valuable player even if he never lifts enough balls to hit for more than averagish power. Most scouts think he's a 12-15 HR guy anyways, which would be well within the realm of possibility even if he continues to hit a ton of ground balls, and he has the gap-to-gap approach and bat speed necessary to hit a bunch of doubles. He's also still going to hit for average and get on base at a great clip, and a .360 OBP plays up almost anywhere on the diamond. Instead, the fact that he does hit so many ground balls matters for two reasons for me. First, it significantly limits his offensive ceiling. Some folks have argued that Cecchini will grow into his power a la Youkilis, but if he continues to hit so many ground balls, that almost certainly won't be in the cards. The plane of your swing is something that isn't easily adjusted, and it looks like it's not just a question of waiting for Cecchini to get stronger as he ages. He does have strong makeup, and it's certain possible that he adds some lift to his swing, but until he makes that fix, he'll project as more of an average to above-average regular than an All-Star type (though it's possible he has some Matt Carpenter-type seasons in him). Second, as you alluded to, it does add a little pressure on him to stick at 3B. LF is a possibility, as he could be a Nava-type there, but his bat just might not be good enough to be a full-time 1B.
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