danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 9, 2015 9:47:25 GMT -5
Last night's game turned out just as I envision the rest of the season: we get a quality start from one of our SPs, bullpen gets blamed for the loss, and we pick up ground in the 2016 sweepstakes. Actually it was just one relief pitcher who should be blamed. The bullpen overall performed very well, unusually so. Holding Toronto to one run for nine innings is an achievement.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 9, 2015 9:59:55 GMT -5
I've decided I specifically want the Red Sox to NOT get a protected pick, specifically because I don't want them paying market value for any QO-likely free agents. Heyward is really great and Upton is pretty cool too but they aren't big enough upgrades to be worth the cost given the current roster. If the cost includes something like the #12 pick and that makes them more likely to forgo a bad investment, that's all the more reason for me to root for the Red Sox to win now. Don't see them going for an OF ... unless it's like a bank-shot, "trade an outfielder for a top pre-FA pitcher, sign an OF FA to replace him" kind of thing, which now that I think of it is possible. But relatively unlikely. Really, outside Zimmermann, I don't see them going for the QO guys anyway, and the #12 pick (and overall cost) may be enough to scare them away from Zimmermann, too. But, honestly, I just highly doubt they're going to remain in the top-10 anyway. They're just too good a team right now to stay down with the bottom feeders much longer. And that's fine with me. I want the young players to win and get used to winning. They should see themselves as part of a good ball club, not a bunch of losers stumbling to the finish.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2015 11:12:49 GMT -5
There seems to be a lot going on in that dugout at this point. Another positive about bringing all those guys up from the minors is that they have solid friendships and they probably feel quite comfortable around each other. We tend to downplay those old "intangibles", I know I often have. But if they stay together, these players will have to have some of that. Various combinations of Swihart, Vazquez, Holt, Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Owens, Shaw and Rodriguez have intersected in the minor league system over the last few years. They walk into the dugout and it's people whose performance and personalities they know. That has to count for something.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 9, 2015 12:22:45 GMT -5
I've decided I specifically want the Red Sox to NOT get a protected pick, specifically because I don't want them paying market value for any QO-likely free agents. Heyward is really great and Upton is pretty cool too but they aren't big enough upgrades to be worth the cost given the current roster. If the cost includes something like the #12 pick and that makes them more likely to forgo a bad investment, that's all the more reason for me to root for the Red Sox to win now. This makes sense. If we are just outside top 10, we still get the chance of a pick close in value to what we might get now. Why squander that taking on huge salary with uncertain incremental value. I say whether it is a position player or a pitcher. When I look at Pedey, Castillo, Betts, JBJ, Swihart, Holt, Vazquez, Margot, Beintendi among the names, I wonder if we are building the "all small" team. If a player is over 6'..he 'need not apply' it seems. We do need to get some power especially with our ballpark. The Yankees are never out of a game with the clear roster plan of LH power hitters.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2015 16:27:45 GMT -5
Pos Player HR guesstimate Stretch LF Betts 12-15 20 CF Bradley 15-20 25 SS Bogaerts 8-12 20 (does his power come this year?) DH Papi 25-30 35 1B Hanley/Shaw 15-25 30 2B Peddy 8-12 15 3B Panda/Shaw 10-15 20 RF Castillo 10-15 20 (who knows?) C CV/Swihart 8-12 15
UT Holt 5-8 10 UT ? 5-8 10
Other bench players are incorporated above (Shaw/Swihart or Hannigan)
Looks like there is good distributed power with Papi and Hanley (if he's healthy) being the big boppers and JBJ the next in line then a bunch of solid power that has upside (Betts, Castillo). I think that's enough power that you don't sacrifice any more defense particularly if you primarily turn some doubles into homers and perhaps give up base running and/or OBP to h=get them. Later Benintendi may come up and fall into the 12-20 range, too soon to tell.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 10, 2015 15:18:26 GMT -5
W L PCT GB 1 Philadelphia Phillies 54 86 0.386 34.5 2 Atlanta Braves 56 84 0.400 32.5 3 Colorado Rockies 57 82 0.410 31 4 Cincinnati Reds 57 81 0.413 30.5 5 Miami Marlin 59 81 0.421 29.5 6 Oakland Athletics 60 80 0.429 28.5 7 Milwaukee Brewers 61 78 0.439 27 8 Detroit Tigers 64 75 0.460 24 9 Boston Red Sox 66 73 0.475 22 10 Chicago White Sox 66 72 0.478 21.5 11 San Diego Padres 67 73 0.479 21.5 12 Arizona Diamondbacks 67 73 0.479 21.5 13 Seattle Mariners 67 73 0.479 21.5 14 Baltimore Orioles 67 72 0.482 21 15 Tampa Bay Rays 68 71 0.489 20 16 Cleveland Indians 68 70 0.493 19.5
Haven't had an update in a while. Sox are only a game from "dropping" out of the top ten. They have certainly "fallen" out of the basement, and could easily pass the orioles and rays in the division, let alone for that protected pick. I can't really complain though.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 10, 2015 15:23:01 GMT -5
Just prepare yourselves: the Sox are going to end up with a pick well into the teens. They may pass every team on that list. Or get passed by them, however you want to look at it.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 10, 2015 15:53:43 GMT -5
No matter where they end up they are keeping that pick. There is enough pitching w/o compensation. Plus you are hoping that is it for the high picks so you want to nail it and get another top talent.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 10, 2015 21:25:31 GMT -5
No matter where they end up they are keeping that pick. There is enough pitching w/o compensation. Plus you are hoping that is it for the high picks so you want to nail it and get another top talent. Are you really sure about that? Is that Dombrowski's MO, and exactly what marching orders does he have, as far as trying to rebuild a contender quickly?
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 11, 2015 6:42:43 GMT -5
I going by common sense.
I would be shocked if they end up 12 and sign someone with draft pick compensation. Especially when Cueto,Price and Kazmir just examples are out there and you just need money. I guess Pedro really likes Cueto. I read somewhere. It would be disappointing to forfeit that pick for a pitcher.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2015 8:10:41 GMT -5
None of Cueto, Price or Kazmir require draft pick compensation because they were all traded midseason.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 11, 2015 8:23:23 GMT -5
No kidding I said all you need is money. There no need to lose the pick . If you are referring to me read the previous post also. There is enough talent that you don't need to surrender a pick.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2015 8:57:41 GMT -5
Got it-- I misread, my apologies.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 11, 2015 11:42:24 GMT -5
Looking at all the teams we could pass if we get to .500, I see us picking 14th or 15th slot at the highest.
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Post by arzjake on Sept 11, 2015 19:14:56 GMT -5
Just prepare yourselves: the Sox are going to end up with a pick well into the teens. They may pass every team on that list. Or get passed by them, however you want to look at it. Boldt will still be there
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 14, 2015 17:51:25 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, BOS would have the 12th pick in the 2016 MLB draft (record since 7/23):
1. PHI ---- (22-25) 2. ATL ---- (11-38) 3. COL -4.5 (20-30) 4. CIN -5.0 (18-31) 5. MIA -5.5 (20-27) 6. OAK -5.5 (17-29) 7. MIL -6.5 (20-27) 8. DET -10.0 (18-29) 9. SDO -11.0 (23-25) 10. ARI -12.5 (24-25) 11. CWS -12.5 (24-24) 12. BOS -13.0 (26-20) 13. SEA -13.0 (25-23)
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is ARZ, COL, BOS, CHW, PHI, CIN, MIA, SDO, ATL, MIL, SEA, OAK, DET)
AL East record since 7/23:
TOR (33-13) BOS (26-20) MFY (25-23) BAL (23-25) TBR (21-24)
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Post by Guidas on Sept 16, 2015 11:55:40 GMT -5
Bottom line: If you want the Sox to have a protected top 10 pick, you want Dombrowski to demand Hanley starts at 1st for the rest of the year.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 16, 2015 16:00:09 GMT -5
The last few games seem to have the offense and pitching teetering between surge and slump. The competion for the protected pick could be as close as the division leads in the ALE and ALW and 2nd WC. Who knew?
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Post by raftsox on Sept 16, 2015 18:57:55 GMT -5
None of Cueto, Price or Kazmir require draft pick compensation because they were all traded midseason. Am I wrong in assuming that the Dodgers will not be able to offer Grienke a QO because of his opt out? I'm convincing myself that he's the best free agent value. I think he's going age well given his analytical proclivities. I also want to believe that Bannister's position here will help Grienke want to sign here.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 16, 2015 20:36:08 GMT -5
None of Cueto, Price or Kazmir require draft pick compensation because they were all traded midseason. Am I wrong in assuming that the Dodgers will not be able to offer Grienke a QO because of his opt out? Yes. Players who opt out are still QO eligible.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 19, 2015 11:40:30 GMT -5
The last few games seem to have the offense and pitching teetering between surge and slump. The competion for the protected pick could be as close as the division leads in the ALE and ALW and 2nd WC. Who knew? The ALE isnt that close anymore. 4.5 games with two weeks left is a lot. I think we will lose quite a bit down while playing playoff contenders. Should be able to still get a top 10 pick with our pitching staff concerns.
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Post by marrcus on Sept 19, 2015 13:45:45 GMT -5
The case for either scenario (protected / doesn't matter) can be made. I want Dombrowski to have to have any advantage possible this winter. They can lose them all for all I care at this point (it's about 2016). The press has been trying to mitigate the lousy year with a finish strong sendoff to 2015. It doesn't matter.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 20, 2015 7:13:15 GMT -5
The case for either scenario (protected / doesn't matter) can be made. I want Dombrowski to have to have any advantage possible this winter. They can lose them all for all I care at this point (it's about 2016). The press has been trying to mitigate the lousy year with a finish strong sendoff to 2015. It doesn't matter. Well, I am one who probably favors getting the higher draft pick at the expense of winning a few more games....but damn it's hard to hold these kids down. What are you going to do???...bring up the AA rotation? The players, the pitching, the attitude is night and day (relief pitching excepted). I think the protected pick is as good as gone.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 20, 2015 8:03:57 GMT -5
The case for either scenario (protected / doesn't matter) can be made. I want Dombrowski to have to have any advantage possible this winter. They can lose them all for all I care at this point (it's about 2016). The press has been trying to mitigate the lousy year with a finish strong sendoff to 2015. It doesn't matter. Well, I am one who probably favors getting the higher draft pick at the expense of winning a few more games....but damn it's hard to hold these kids down. What are you going to do???...bring up the AA rotation? The players, the pitching, the attitude is night and day (relief pitching excepted). I think the protected pick is as good as gone. I would love to see us have that protected pick also, but in all reality what the team is achieving NOW is important to 2016. Dombrowski has to have a good idea going into the winter what he has and what he doesn't to make solid decisions. The productivity of that young outfield and our 2 young lefties in the rotation is HUGELY important! Even the trials and tribulations of Blake Swihart gives much needed data to DD and helps with what needs to be worked on. Look.....I'm as much of a "prospect" hoarder as anyone on this site, but IT IS TIME to play our hand. No more waiting 3 years down the line. This is why I finally have reversed my thinking about signing a 30 year old ace for 6 years of BIG money. The future has started. The games now matter a lot.
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Post by artfuldodger on Sept 20, 2015 8:45:57 GMT -5
Yesterday was a best case scenario. The Red Sox have a confidence building but maintains position for a protected pick with wins from the White Sox and Diamondbacks.
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